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The hush money indictment

apnews.com

Trump fined $1,000 for gag order violation in hush money case as ex-employee recounts reimbursements

The judge presiding over Trump's trial fined him again for contempt and threatened jail time if he violated the gag order again.
apnews.com apnews.com
NEW YORK (AP) — The judge in Donald Trump’s hush money trial fined him $1,000 on Monday and, in his sternest warning yet, told the former president that future gag order violations could send him to jail. The reprimand opened a revelatory day of testimony, as jurors for the first time heard the details of the financial transactions at the center of the case and saw payment checks bearing Trump’s signature.
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Trump's guilt is pretty much assured. He needs a miracle in testifying to pull this one off. So the question becomes, what is the punishment. From what I can tell online, there are no minimum sentencing guidelines. This is hardly a serious crime, so jail time does seem unlikely. But probation? Would that be overstepping the bounds? Definitely a fine, but what? The payment was $130,000. Is it a percentage of that? Trump is found guilty and pays a fine of $25,000 or $1,000 to $5,000 for every count?

I'm a bit nervous that he is going to be found guilty, and of a series of felonies... but the penalty will be near non-existent (though I'm certain Melania's lawyers are scouring documents for the divorce). It is very unfortunate his significant crimes won't go to trial... potentially ever. He won't lose face in this, his devoted followers will think being found guilty will be a badge of honor.
 
But it isn't a major crime. I don't think the judge will put a former President in jail for trying to hide payments to a person he had sex with to not go public with it.

I've been pretty good on predicting where things will go with his cases, other than the Cannon case which seems to be unprecedented. And I've taken a bit of flack for making correct predictions that weren't exactly warm and fuzzy. And right now, it wouldn't seem likely for the Judge to imprison Trump short of contempt of court, of which Trump has been provided more "leniency" that just about any other defendant could ever dream of.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
I don't think the judge will put [someone] in jail for trying to hide payments...
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They should; Those payments were large; Were required to be disclosed on pain of possible jail time; and The effort to hide them was premeditated, calculated, and malicious.

That adds up to jail time according to the law. That it doesn't according to highly manipulated public opinion shouldn't (but probably will) matter.

It also shouldn't matter who the defendant is, nor what previous jobs he has held; Nor for what purpose the money was misappropriated. Those are irrelevancies, regardless of the massive focus on them from the media.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
But it isn't a major crime. I don't think the judge will put a former President in jail for trying to hide payments to a person he had sex with to not go public with it.
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As bilby points out, that is not what he's charged with.
Had Trump pulled out his own wallet and paid, he could have lied all he wanted to about it. It's the fraud and misuse of campaign funds that is the legal problem here.
Tom
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
But it isn't a major crime.
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What “it” are you talking about?

He is charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.
Falsifying business records is a felony in New York when there is an “intent to defraud” that includes an intent to “commit another crime or to aid or conceal” another crime.
The other crime is a criminal violation of campaign finance laws with intent to influence the outcome of an election.

It doesn’t get much more “major”, as State crimes go.
I’m sure the Trumpsucking public won’t get it, but I won’t be at all surprised if the jury does.
 
bilby said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
I don't think the judge will put [someone] in jail for trying to hide payments...
Click to expand...
They should; Those payments were large; Were required to be disclosed on pain of possible jail time; and The effort to hide them was premeditated, calculated, and malicious.

That adds up to jail time according to the law.
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There are no minimized sentencing requirements, so jail time is not according to the law. It'd be according to the Judge.
bilby said:
That it doesn't according to highly manipulated public opinion shouldn't (but probably will) matter.
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That will definitely influence things as well. As things stand, someone else did this, they'd probably go to, I'm sorry, would already have been sentenced to jail time, and very likely would have been out by now.
bilby said:
It also shouldn't matter who the defendant is, nor what previous jobs he has held; Nor for what purpose the money was misappropriated. Those are irrelevancies, regardless of the massive focus on them from the media.
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Yes thank you, I'm aware of that, but as things stand, I'm speaking about how the REAL world will operate.
 
Elixir said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
But it isn't a major crime.
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What “it” are you talking about?

He is charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.
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Yes, but that 34 times is regarding the same general act. This isn't like the Trump Organization civil trial, where Trump was found guilty of repeatedly lying on documents for years. The Stormy Daniels case is a one-off deal. That will matter.
Elixir said:
Falsifying business records is a felony in New York when there is an “intent to defraud” that includes an intent to “commit another crime or to aid or conceal” another crime.
The other crime is a criminal violation of campaign finance laws with intent to influence the outcome of an election.
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You aren't going to get an argument out of me to suggest otherwise. I think Trump's guilt is effectively carved in stone at this point. The question is, what is the punishment by the court. Keep in mind, this will be appealed, and judges don't like being over-ruled. I think way too much is being made over the details by Daniels during testimony. The only thing that mattered is that there was sex (in a legal manner). The appeal will only be viable for the sentencing. Look, if he is sentenced to 6 months in jail (house arrest *bleah*), I'm not going to have a hard time sleeping.
Elixir said:
It doesn’t get much more “major”, as State crimes go.
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Murder? Ponzi-scheme? Whatever we want to call what that DJT stock fraud is? Trump University? The Trump charity organization fraud?
Elixir said:
I’m sure the Trumpsucking public won’t get it, but I won’t be at all surprised if the jury does.
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Anything is possible with a jury, but the only reason to acquit is if the jury thinks this trial is unfair and Trump is being unfairly targeted. Otherwise, this seems open and shut. The Prosecution did a great job of tying Trump's interest in keeping his general personal behavior out of the tabloid media, which to me, is the cornerstone of proving his intent. Even if someone thinks Trump was the "victim" of Daniels, Trump actively was trying to stop stories on him from coming out... for electoral purposes.
 
TomC said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
But it isn't a major crime. I don't think the judge will put a former President in jail for trying to hide payments to a person he had sex with to not go public with it.
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As bilby points out, that is not what he's charged with.
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My understanding is that he split the payments to a low enough level to avoid regulator notice. That was the bank fraud.

I'll gladly be in the wrong here, just like when I was wrong about how SCOTUS would say the states couldn't disqualify Trump... and all the people in here that were right in saying SCOTUS would allow it. Oh wait... But if I'm wrong in this case, that'd be fine. 12 months, jail... that'd be fine. Granted, it'd probably be house arrest.

Poor Eugene Debs.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
My understanding is that he split the payments to a low enough level to avoid regulator notice. That was the bank fraud.
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I don't claim to understand the details.
But I think one of Trump's big problems here is having thrown his fixer, Cohen, under the bus.
Now Cohen has the kind of immunity that results from having been convicted and serving his time. And he has a bunch of information about what Trump did. What Trump knew. Etc.

I don't claim to know the details.
Tom
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Murder? Ponzi-scheme? Whatever we want to call what that DJT stock fraud is? Trump University? The Trump charity organization fraud?
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Nope.

YMMV, but only the most prolific murderers in history can exceed the body count that can be safely attributed to Trump’s election.
 
Trump was a grumpy boy yesterday in court. The judge admonished him for making faces and cursing barely under his breath.
 
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TomC said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
My understanding is that he split the payments to a low enough level to avoid regulator notice. That was the bank fraud.
Click to expand...
I don't claim to understand the details.
But I think one of Trump's big problems here is having thrown his fixer, Cohen, under the bus.
Now Cohen has the kind of immunity that results from having been convicted and serving his time. And he has a bunch of information about what Trump did. What Trump knew. Etc.

I don't claim to know the details.
Tom
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This is an important point. If it was a major enough crime for Cohen to go to jail for then it’s enough for his previously unindicted co-conspirator to go to jail for. If Trump doesn’t go to jail for this then someone owes Cohen some major apologies!
 
Shadowy Man said:
TomC said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
My understanding is that he split the payments to a low enough level to avoid regulator notice. That was the bank fraud.
Click to expand...
I don't claim to understand the details.
But I think one of Trump's big problems here is having thrown his fixer, Cohen, under the bus.
Now Cohen has the kind of immunity that results from having been convicted and serving his time. And he has a bunch of information about what Trump did. What Trump knew. Etc.

I don't claim to know the details.
Tom
Click to expand...
This is an important point. If it was a major enough crime for Cohen to go to jail for then it’s enough for his previously unindicted co-conspirator to go to jail for. If Trump doesn’t go to jail for this then someone owes Cohen some major apologies!
Click to expand...
I think one of Trump's big problems is he doesn't believe he can be thrown in jail.
And I don't know that I would bet against it.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Shadowy Man said:
TomC said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
My understanding is that he split the payments to a low enough level to avoid regulator notice. That was the bank fraud.
Click to expand...
I don't claim to understand the details.
But I think one of Trump's big problems here is having thrown his fixer, Cohen, under the bus.
Now Cohen has the kind of immunity that results from having been convicted and serving his time. And he has a bunch of information about what Trump did. What Trump knew. Etc.

I don't claim to know the details.
Tom
Click to expand...
This is an important point. If it was a major enough crime for Cohen to go to jail for then it’s enough for his previously unindicted co-conspirator to go to jail for. If Trump doesn’t go to jail for this then someone owes Cohen some major apologies!
Click to expand...
I think one of Trump's big problems is he doesn't believe he can be thrown in jail.
And I don't know that I would bet against it.
Click to expand...
He made a comment on the jury yesterday, which could get him into jail today.
 
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