Bribe NK with money: Maybe we need to work out a deal with China to do that

[fromderinside]

So maybe by China bribing NK we can get technicians to take down their nuclear threat intentions

Song Yung Lee has it all wrong. We don't turn off the spigott, we turn on the spigot with catches. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/...-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

Rather that trying to stop an emerging black market which is about like trying to trap flies with sweet talk we should work out a deal with China, a known known, to invite NK out of the 17th century with an irresistible offer of modernization with caveats. I'm sure we can suggest carrots to the Chines that would make them ameanable to get them to fund a Marshall plan in KN. China can promise them a modern NK if only they permit Chines and other technicians in to dismantle their Nuclear threat. Trade progress for destruction, security for peril.

Expand their vision. Rather than a desperate attempt to dominate the south invite them with funding to compete with the south in exchange for joining the market oriented world.

Do what we did during Nixon for China.

Thouights?

 

[Derec]

An extortionist is never satisfied and keeps demanding more and more.

 

[fromderinside]

An extortionist is never satisfied and keeps demanding more and more.

Read your tale of two Dicks, both his China policy and his failed presidency. The greed of one man cannot withstand the possible gains of many.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The problem here is that they aren't simply isolated, but major league extortionists. Not to mention using diplomatic immunity to cover drug smuggling.

 

[skepticalbip]

Thouights?

It has already been tried... and failed. NK was given billions in the 1990s with their agreement that they would dismantle their nuclear research.

Apparently, they only used those billions to fund their weapons development.

 

[ZiprHead]

Considering Putin's recent comments about N. Korea and Russian aid to NK, I'm wondering if Russia is pushing some buttons in NK to promote aggravation between NK and the USA.

 

[fromderinside]

The problem here is that they aren't simply isolated, but major league extortionists. Not to mention using diplomatic immunity to cover drug smuggling.

Thouights?

It has already been tried... and failed. NK was given billions in the 1990s with their agreement that they would dismantle their nuclear research.

Apparently, they only used those billions to fund their weapons development.

Therefore it makes sense to use China as the carrot holder. I'm pretty sure China will get what they want or they will shut off all spigots to NK, then they will politely mass three million troops on the border and start counting down.

We have a better record dealing with China so it might take a huge change in our economic relations to get them interested. We have to cater to China's "What's in it for me".

 

[skepticalbip]

Thouights?

It has already been tried... and failed. NK was given billions in the 1990s with their agreement that they would dismantle their nuclear research.

Apparently, they only used those billions to fund their weapons development.

Therefore it makes sense to use China as the carrot holder. I'm pretty sure China will get what they want or they will shut off all spigots to NK, then they will politely mass three million troops on the border and start counting down.

We have a better record dealing with China so it might take a huge change in our economic relations to get them interested. We have to cater to China's "What's in it for me".

One of the current proposed answers to China's "What's in it for me" is "You get to keep your major trading partner (the U.S.) for your exports."

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Thouights?

It has already been tried... and failed. NK was given billions in the 1990s with their agreement that they would dismantle their nuclear research.

Apparently, they only used those billions to fund their weapons development.

They dismantled their uranium program. They started up a plutonium program.

 

[fromderinside]

OK then. We'll drop back to our bipolar struggle position of containment and mutually assured destruction and wait until NK collapses. I know we\re up to it.

 

[funinspace]

We pretend that we can really cram the toothpaste back into the tube....and debate would could have been done 20 years ago and who will be blamed....

 

[skepticalbip]

It has already been tried... and failed. NK was given billions in the 1990s with their agreement that they would dismantle their nuclear research.

Apparently, they only used those billions to fund their weapons development.

They dismantled their uranium program. They started up a plutonium program.

That is pretty much the normal progression. While uranium bombs are very simple and extremely reliable, the fuel is damned difficult to come by. Plutonium bombs are much, much more of a technical challenge but the fuel can easily be produced. A country pretty much has to go with plutonium as the fuel if they want to continually produce several bombs.

 

[fromderinside]

We pretend that we can really cram the toothpaste back into the tube....and debate would could have been done 20 years ago and who will be blamed....

So what we do is pretend. Nice. See that pretend mushroom shaped cloud rising from the LA basin?

 

[Bronzeage]

 

[Elixir]

We pretend that we can really cram the toothpaste back into the tube....and debate would could have been done 20 years ago and who will be blamed....

So what we do is pretend. Nice. See that pretend mushroom shaped cloud rising from the LA basin?

Seriously folks... is there ANY chance that NK will lash out at anyone with a nuke? Considering that the US alone could turn the entire country into a slag heap in a matter of hours, I consider that highly unlikely.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Well, that's assuming rational decision making. The Mad Hobbit is a nut who just might believe his own press or believe some sycophant general who tells him that the NK army can beat back any threat.

Logic might not play a role here.

 

[skepticalbip]

So what we do is pretend. Nice. See that pretend mushroom shaped cloud rising from the LA basin?

Seriously folks... is there ANY chance that NK will lash out at anyone with a nuke? Considering that the US alone could turn the entire country into a slag heap in a matter of hours, I consider that highly unlikely.

Right, seriously. Is there ANY chance that the skinhead across the street who sits on his porch with his high power rifle and aims it at me screaming that he is going to blow me away every time I walk out will ever actually shoot me? Considering that if he ever actually did he would certainly end up in prison on death row.

 

[Bronzeage]

Well, that's assuming rational decision making. The Mad Hobbit is a nut who just might believe his own press or believe some sycophant general who tells him that the NK army can beat back any threat.

Logic might not play a role here.

Let's pretend this is a poker game. Each player is trying to project a persona that they believe will intimidate the other players. Kim wants everyone to know he has nuclear weapons and is willing to use them.

The real problem here is that Kim's stash is less than one percent of everybody else's bankroll. He can't go all in, and he can't bluff.

If Kim makes a first strike with a nuclear weapon, it will inflict minimal damage on someone. The death of 12,000 people may not sound minimal, but no matter who or where he strikes, it will have no effect on their ability to retaliate. Any retaliation means he loses everything he holds near and dear. No one is going to play that hand.

Kim's missiles and nuclear weapons have no military value. He can't use them without guaranteeing his own destruction. Their value is strictly political and he uses them to exert political power.

The real danger in all of this is not a first strike by North Korea, it's some kind of accident. Missiles are complicated things. It's difficult to tell the difference between a missile that hits its target, and one that malfunctions and falls out of the sky. It's going to hit something. A seized gyroscope could crash a missile in Japan, Guam, or maybe Oregon, and trigger a retaliation that prompts North Korea to empty its arsenal in true earnest.

 

[fromderinside]

Zactly. that is why I was so interested in the missile NK sent over Japan that apparently broke apart. Seems to me U m's willing to take that risk probably out of ignorance which is, as we all know the route to all catastrophe.

I can't say he's calculating since he does stupid things.

Hire a Russian operative to take the SOB out.

 

[Derec]

They dismantled their uranium program. They started up a plutonium program.

That is pretty much the normal progression. While uranium bombs are very simple and extremely reliable, the fuel is damned difficult to come by. Plutonium bombs are much, much more of a technical challenge but the fuel can easily be produced. A country pretty much has to go with plutonium as the fuel if they want to continually produce several bombs.

That's why Manhattan Project did both. They were not sure they could solve either of the problems in time
Spoiler alert:

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They solved both, Hiroshima was U235, Nagasaki was Pu239.