Name your failed political predictions

[Brian63]

One curious-but-annoying trend in political discussions is to note how often people ascribe virtual certainty to their own political views being sound. They are over-confident about their own judgments and abilities to correctly predict the future. This comes into play when deciding on which candidates should be nominated for office, which policies should be enacted, which political and legal and media strategies should be put into play, etc. Many people around all social media sites, including this forum, are subject to it. The fights and arguments turn vicious, and the accusations made that anyone who disagrees with us is not only likely to be wrong, but flagrantly stupid for holding the views they do because their political stances would be catastrophic if they were made real. People hold entirely conflicting views and prophecies about will happen if [x] occurs, and each of them is 1,000% confident of their predictions. Dunning-Kruger a million-fold.

So let's turn that around on ourselves. Think of some political predictions that you have made recently or any time in the past, where you confess to being wrong about. Serious ones, not just sarcasm or jokes.


To start: Ahead of the event, I expected Warren to come off with a loss on debate night#1. She had the most to lose by there even being a debate at all with everyone else on the floor. When several different voices are given a platform and equal time, I think it favors the underdogs and the short handed, not the current frontrunners. She has gotten the most positive reception from that pack though.


So for fuck's sake people, can everyone at least admit that we do not know with virtual certainty which candidates would be the most or least likely to defeat Trump? A lot can and will happen in a year-and-a-half. There will be countless variables that we are not yet aware of. If one Dem gets nominated and wins, that does not validate the wisdom of someone who preferred that candidate. Perhaps a lot of candidates will have won against Trump when election day hits us. If a particular Democrat gets nominated and ends up losing in the general, that does not validate the "See, I told ya so!" crying of anyone with a different preferred candidate. Perhaps most or all of those running for the nomination would have lost the general election (such as if Trump cheated in various ways).

Stop being so goddamn-fucking-absolutely-certain that your political wisdom far surpasses everybody else's and that anyone who disagrees with you is stupid for not being so clairvoyant as you!

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

In 2016 I said several times that Trump would stall on the road to the nomination. I thought his support in Republican circles would top out at about 30%. Instead he won the nomination AND the general election.

 

[Patooka]

I thought Mark Latham was in with a chance in 2004 and I voted for Labour in that election. Talk about a "there but the grace of god..." moment.

No, I'm not proud of it but I hear confession is good for the soul.

 

[Tigers!]

I really that thought that Labour would win the Australian 2019 General Election.

So glad I was incorrect.

 

[Canard DuJour]

I thought the crash of 2007/8 and subsequent Great Recession would be the end neoliberalism.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I thought the crash of 2007/8 and subsequent Great Recession would be the end neoliberalism.

I never thought that Trump would win. Then it was a surprise that Trump hasn't even tried tacking to the middle. It's been a real shock to see how powerful the American right has been. The American right is far more dangerous than the neo-liberalist meanies!

 

[Sarpedon]

I thought Scott Walker would win the Republican nomination in 2016.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I predicted Bush II would not be elected, re-elected and that Clinton would beat Trump. A humbling experience.

 

[Torin]

I thought Clinton would win the last presidential election.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

I accurately predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016 once it was in the general, but earlier on I didn't think Trump would get the Republican nomination. I didn't thin he would last long at all, and I thought he didn't want the job and was doing it for publicity only.

I also didn't predict Trudeau would win in our last election here in Canada.

I accurately predicted Duterte's last win in Philippines.

 

[Gun Nut]

In 2016 I said several times that Trump would stall on the road to the nomination. I thought his support in Republican circles would top out at about 30%. Instead he won the nomination AND the general election.

me too.

 

[Gun Nut]

I thought the crash of 2007/8 and subsequent Great Recession would be the end neoliberalism.

I never thought that Trump would win. Then it was a surprise that Trump hasn't even tried tacking to the middle. It's been a real shock to see how powerful the American right has been. The American right is far more dangerous than the neo-liberalist meanies!

You have 50% of the nation walking in lock step carrying out an oath of loyalty to a set of ideas... not even ideas... people that represent ideas.
The remaining 50% of the nation is constantly being divided up into little tiny internally combative sects of "not the right".
So, it is not half the country against the other half the country... It is half the country against 1% that have some self-identity... another 1% with another identity... another 1%.....
.. and then you have a huge chunk of potential voters that seem to think failing to participate in elections is "making a point"... ya, the point made is "you can have it, I don't want it".
unless and until there is a major change in the DNC... there will never again be a Democratic president... never.

 

[Politesse]

The first election I voted in was Bush v. Kerry. It was a bit traumatizing.

 

[southernhybrid]

The first election I voted in was Bush v. Kerry. It was a bit traumatizing.

You think that was bad. My first election was Nixon v. McGovern. That was heartbreaking. Some of my generation couldn't even vote until we were 21, but I guess all of our "old enough to die but not old enough to vote" chants during our Viet Nam War protests at least accomplished lowering the voting age for future generations. You're welcome.

I agree that the Bush win was pretty disappointing. My son, who rarely calls me, called the day after the election to offer me condolences and emotional support. Whoever thought we'd end up with someone even worse in 2016?

 

[zorq]

I predicted that the evangelical Right would rather lose an election than the moral high ground. I really thought that they were serious about their "family values" schpeel.

I didn't expect them to turn out for Trump. But they did.

It turns out that they are exactly the hypocrites that all of the atheists on the internet were telling me they were. It was when my super religious mother in-law told me she was excited about Trump in the 16 primaries that I knew there was no hope for that kind of split in the Republicans.

 

[ideologyhunter]

I thought that the leak of Bush II getting a security briefing 5 weeks ahead of 9/11 warning him that Bin Laden was considering the use of hijacked jets as weapons would doom his reelection. (The brief was titled Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.; Bush did absolutely nothing.) The leak happened in '02 and wasn't even a huge deal in '02!! Had this been a Democrat, with a Republican Senate, there would've been an impeachment and removal.

 

[RavenSky]

That Trump would lose - both the Republican nomination and then the general election. That NO ONE could be stupid enough or vile enough to vote for him.

 

[Toni]

Yeah. Me, too.

 

[Brian63]

Me three. At least in the general when the "grab 'em by the pussy" tapes came out and he responded with a completely obvious phony "apology" for it. I had more confidence that his chances were doomed and the electorate would see right through it in overwhelming numbers.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

That's not what prompted me to say Trump wouldn't make it.

Those who win the office have worked their way up from lesser offices, elected and appointed. Even Eisenhower, who followed a different trail up to the top, did work within the system towards the top. He was exceptional in that he followed a different path to the top. Most of the time when a wealthy person runs for president without a political history they are doing it to make a point, or for publicity. I never thought Perot actually wanted the job, for example. That he dropped out when he did showed me his true intent.

Also for a long time I thought he was doing it to help his friend and fellow Democrat Hillary to win. I thought his later campaign was a lot like that of South Park's Mr. Garrison who was actually trying to lose and failing. On the show Mr. Garrison came out and said he didn't deserve the job and everyone should vote for Hillary, and Hillary gave her coached response of "My opponent is a liar and you cannot believe anything he says." I thought Trump didn't actually plan to win, just to shake things up. I saw his victory as him winning by accident, that every time he tried to get more extreme to lose support he gained it instead.