UK Elections - Bozza vs. Jezza

[Derec]

UK is going to the polls mere 2 and a half years after the last elections, mostly because the current parliament could not agree what to do about Brexit.

In June 2017, in another premature election, Theresa May thought she'd strengthen her position. Instead, she lost seats and narrowly lost the majority, but was able to carry on with the votes of a Northern Ireland Unionist party.



This are the possible future (and perhaps last) prime ministers of the United Kingdom.

Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel "BoJo" Johnson - Conservative

Not all heroes wear capes

Pros: not Corbyn, may get Brexit done, which may be a lesser evil than this eternal limbo
Cons: lied about Brexit apparently, has some unclaimed children or something

Jeremy Bernard "Comrade Jezza" Corbyn - People's Front of Britannia Labour

What have the Jews ever done for us?

Pros: not quite as old as Bernie Sanders
Cons: socialist, antisemite, friend of Hamas (they ran a pro-Jezza Facebook group, that's what friends are for), Hezbollah and IRA during the Troubles. Always takes the non-UK side in a quarrel (see Falklands War). Probably does not even root for England in footy or rugby.

Honorable mention: Nicola Sturgeon could become the first Prime Minister or President of the Republic of Scotland.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The UK is having an election which is effectively a referendum on Brexit... without it actually being a referendum on the actual Brexit. Because they can't have a second referendum on Brexit because that'd be silly... but having a second national election to try and sort out Parliament in order to pass it isn't.

The UK has fallen so far.

 

[TSwizzle]

What a shit show. Shouldn't there be another option on the ballot ? Like, "None of the above, try again." I am guessing Boris will somehow edge it to be PM.

 

[Derec]

What a shit show. Shouldn't there be another option on the ballot ?

There are other options. But because of first-past-the-post, most of the votes for smaller parties end up wasted. Except for SNP which is concentrated in Scotland and benefits from fptp. And in any case, the only people who get to vote directly for either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn live in Uxbridge and South Ruislip or Islington North, respectively. If you don't like Boris, you may vote, for example, for independent candidate Count Binface. If you don't like Comrade Jezza, you may vote for Nick the Incredible Flying Brick of the Monster Raving Loony Party. So there certainly are choices.

Like, "None of the above, try again."

Well this is always a possibility. Ends up as "spoilt ballot" though I think. (NSFW)

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I am guessing Boris will somehow edge it to be PM.

I think that's a safe bet.

 

[Derec]

The UK is having an election which is effectively a referendum on Brexit...

I don't think it's really a referendum on Brexit. It's not like Tories are pro-Brexit and Labour are all Remainers. The Remain/Leave faultline runs through both major parties, but especially Labour. Corbyn himself is an old Euroskeptic, and only reluctantly agreed to back the Second Referendum.
Also, Corbyn is so extreme that many Remainers are going to be reluctant to vote Labour just to get a possible 2nd referendum.

without it actually being a referendum on the actual Brexit. Because they can't have a second referendum on Brexit because that'd be silly... but having a second national election to try and sort out Parliament in order to pass it isn't.

I agree that they need to let the public vote again. The original referendum was non-binding, did not include any details about what Brexit would entail, and a lot has changed since 2016.

 

[TSwizzle]

There are other options. But because of first-past-the-post, most of the votes for smaller parties end up wasted. Except for SNP which is concentrated in Scotland and benefits from fptp. And in any case, the only people who get to vote directly for either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn live in Uxbridge and South Ruislip or Islington North, respectively. If you don't like Boris, you may vote, for example, for independent candidate Count Binface. If you don't like Comrade Jezza, you may vote for Nick the Incredible Flying Brick of the Monster Raving Loony Party. So there certainly are choices.

It will be interesting to see how Scotland votes in this one.

 

[Derec]

It will be interesting to see how Scotland votes in this one.

SNP will almost certainly maintain the dominance in Scotland, which is bad news for Labour, as SNP rise was largely at their expense.

Labour was able to win some of those lost constituencies back in 2017, but Tories made some inroads too. SNP might be able to reverse that since Corbyn is so toxic and Brexit so unpopular in the North (67% voted to Remain.) But the shift between 2010 and 2015 is very dramatic in any case.


I also think that the outcome biby voted for, Corbyn with coalition or minority, is among the least likely outcomes. If Labour is able to govern in minority or coalition, I do not see smaller parties Labour would need for support would fathom supporting Corbyn. He is barely tolerated by many MPs in his own party! So in that scenario, a deal where Corbyn is replaced by somebody more moderate is much more likely.

 

[bilby]

It will be interesting to see how Scotland votes in this one.

SNP will almost certainly maintain the dominance in Scotland, which is bad news for Labour, as SNP rise was largely at their expense.
View attachment 25234
Labour was able to win some of those lost constituencies back in 2017, but Tories made some inroads too. SNP might be able to reverse that since Corbyn is so toxic and Brexit so unpopular in the North (67% voted to Remain.) But the shift between 2010 and 2015 is very dramatic in any case.
View attachment 25235

I also think that the outcome biby voted for, Corbyn with coalition or minority, is among the least likely outcomes. If Labour is able to govern in minority or coalition, I do not see smaller parties Labour would need for support would fathom supporting Corbyn. He is barely tolerated by many MPs in his own party! So in that scenario, a deal where Corbyn is replaced by somebody more moderate is much more likely.

Corbyn isn't anywhere near as unpopular as the tabloid press would have you believe.

This election is ultimately about whether the voters really are dumb enough to believe without question the manure that the Daily Mail and Sun pump out.

I am guessing that not quite enough of them are that dumb.

But I admit that it's just a guess. There's never been a world shortage of stupidity.

 

[Harry Bosch]

There are other options. But because of first-past-the-post, most of the votes for smaller parties end up wasted. Except for SNP which is concentrated in Scotland and benefits from fptp. And in any case, the only people who get to vote directly for either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn live in Uxbridge and South Ruislip or Islington North, respectively. If you don't like Boris, you may vote, for example, for independent candidate Count Binface. If you don't like Comrade Jezza, you may vote for Nick the Incredible Flying Brick of the Monster Raving Loony Party. So there certainly are choices.

It will be interesting to see how Scotland votes in this one.

Agree. It's been a surprise that there hasn't been a larger clamor by Scotland and Ireland to not leave. Who would want to stay with a country so intent on self destruction?

 

[TSwizzle]

It will be interesting to see how Scotland votes in this one.

Agree. It's been a surprise that there hasn't been a larger clamor by Scotland and Ireland to not leave. Who would want to stay with a country so intent on self destruction?

In Scotland there were a number of marches at the time but Scotland and the SNP don't get the same level of coverage in the national papers as the other parties. There is a possibility of tactical voting for Labour rather than the SNP this time around. Or maybe not, an even stronger SNP showing could get Sturgeon fired up for another independence referendum going.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Corbyn isn't anywhere near as unpopular as the tabloid press would have you believe.

This election is ultimately about whether the voters really are dumb enough to believe without question the manure that the Daily Mail and Sun pump out.

I am guessing that not quite enough of them are that dumb.

But I admit that it's just a guess. There's never been a world shortage of stupidity.

What is incredible is that Brexit is driving the General Election. Which pretty much means anything is possible as people might be willing to vote counter to their other positions (the UK remembers that there is more to politics than Brexit and the EU, right?). I think the paradox somewhat cancels each other out, but I'd be surprised if there is a majority government which muddles... wait no... it is just a status quo in the UK now.

 

[Derec]

Corbyn isn't anywhere near as unpopular as the tabloid press would have you believe.

Keep telling yourself it's just the "tabloid press". In any case, I sure hope for the sake of the UK that he is indeed as unpopular as I think.

This election is ultimately about whether the voters really are dumb enough to believe without question the manure that the Daily Mail and Sun pump out.

I see it differently. I hope the voters are not dumb enough to believe Jeremy Corbyn would be anything but a desaster. He is an old-school socialist, he is antisemitic, and he is a friend of terrorists.

And the antisemitism in the Labour Party is deeper than just the leader.

A Vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party Is a Vote for Anti-Semitism

Even the candidate who is running against Boris Johnson is antisemitic and racist.
Labour candidate for Boris Johnson's seat refused to rule out 'armed conflict' as alternative to BDS

But I admit that it's just a guess. There's never been a world shortage of stupidity.

Indeed. I mean it's still possible for Comrade Jezza to win. Now THAT would be monumentally stupid.

 

[bilby]

Keep telling yourself it's just the "tabloid press". In any case, I sure hope for the sake of the UK that he is indeed as unpopular as I think.


I see it differently. I hope the voters are not dumb enough to believe Jeremy Corbyn would be anything but a desaster. He is an old-school socialist, he is antisemitic, and he is a friend of terrorists.

And the antisemitism in the Labour Party is deeper than just the leader.

A Vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party Is a Vote for Anti-Semitism

Even the candidate who is running against Boris Johnson is antisemitic and racist.
Labour candidate for Boris Johnson's seat refused to rule out 'armed conflict' as alternative to BDS

But I admit that it's just a guess. There's never been a world shortage of stupidity.

Indeed. I mean it's still possible for Comrade Jezza to win. Now THAT would be monumentally stupid.

Old school socialism is neither unpopular in Britain, nor a bad idea for Britain in her current state.

Corbyn is not, and never has been, anti-semitic. He is anti-Israel; But again, that's not an unpopular nor a bad thing to be.

And he's not a friend of terrorists; He just takes the sensible position that dialog is a good way to resolve issues that are causing terrorism - and as the Good Friday Agreement clearly demonstrates, he was right about that.

Your belief that Corbyn is somehow a disaster, that he is an anti-semite, and that he is a friend of terrorists, is a very clear indication that you fall into that class of persons who believe the tabloid bullshit about whom I was speaking.

Which surprises me not one whit.

 

[blastula]

Can someone tell me why Corbyn agreed to the election? Did he not have a choice somehow?

 

[bilby]

Can someone tell me why Corbyn agreed to the election?

He didn't, as such - and as Leader of the Opposition, didn't have to.

Parliament voted to hold an extraordinary election, outside the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, by passing an Act that requires an election to be held.

Corbyn and his Labour Party have been in the extraordinary position of preventing an early election, so that Johnson couldn't use the parliamentary shutdown that an election entails to push through Brexit without parliamentary consent. Once the parliament had taken steps to ensure that this was not possible, a majority on both sides were in favour of an election, which they hope will break the deadlock by producing a parliament that has a clear majority either in favour of Brexit, or of a "second" referendum, this time run as an actual referendum.

The non-binding plebiscite that started this mess was a recipe for disaster, as there was no detailed information on what 'leave' actually meant. A proper referendum starts with a parliamentary bill that sets out in excruciating detail the exact and complete set of changes to the status quo that are proposed (so in the case of Brexit, it would need to follow, and incorporate, the fully detailed deal made with the rest of the EU; and would include a detailed set of new rules for everything, including customs arrangements, the Irish border and Good Friday Agreement, tariffs, trade, passports, etc., etc.,); And also includes a victory condition - typically a two-thirds majority being required for change.

Asking "Remain or Leave?", with zero information on what "Leave" might look like, was always going to be a clusterfuck, unless Remain got a large majority.

The only way to resolve this now is through parliament, as the sovereign power in the UK. The queen, her Prime Minister, her government, and the rest of the apparatus of power all serve at the will of parliament, as was established by parliament's beheading of Charles I for his insistence that they were not the boss of him.

As the current parliament has rejected every proposed solution to the Brexit question, it's clear that a new parliament is needed.

It remains to be seen whether the new parliament selected today by the voters will be any more capable of reaching a consensus.

 

[blastula]

Well I mean he and Labour voted for it. It didn't seem like their chances in an election were looking so good when they did that. Why take the chance Johnson would make gains?

 

[bilby]

Well I mean he and Labour voted for it. It didn't seem like their chances in an election were looking so good when they did that. Why take the chance Johnson would make gains?

As I have already implied in this thread, I strongly suspect that the impression the press are giving of Labour's chances are a long way from the actual chances of their being elected (or at least able to form a coalition government).

And what do they have to lose? No election would mean Johnson remains PM. Losing the election would also mean Johnson remains PM. Why not back yourselves as an opposition, and have a crack at persuading the voters to back a change of government?

Btw, the news I have seen suggests a large early turnout - which may well indicate a popular desire for change. Long queues before the polls open are usually a bad sign for the incumbent.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well I mean he and Labour voted for it. It didn't seem like their chances in an election were looking so good when they did that. Why take the chance Johnson would make gains?

As I have already implied in this thread, I strongly suspect that the impression the press are giving of Labour's chances are a long way from the actual chances of their being elected (or at least able to form a coalition government).

And what do they have to lose? No election would mean Johnson remains PM. Losing the election would also mean Johnson remains PM. Why not back yourselves as an opposition, and have a crack at persuading the voters to back a change of government?

Btw, the news I have seen suggests a large early turnout - which may well indicate a popular desire for change. Long queues before the polls open are usually a bad sign for the incumbent.

Except the Brexit folks are probably still energized. We won't know until we know.

 

[bilby]

Well I mean he and Labour voted for it. It didn't seem like their chances in an election were looking so good when they did that. Why take the chance Johnson would make gains?

As I have already implied in this thread, I strongly suspect that the impression the press are giving of Labour's chances are a long way from the actual chances of their being elected (or at least able to form a coalition government).

And what do they have to lose? No election would mean Johnson remains PM. Losing the election would also mean Johnson remains PM. Why not back yourselves as an opposition, and have a crack at persuading the voters to back a change of government?

Btw, the news I have seen suggests a large early turnout - which may well indicate a popular desire for change. Long queues before the polls open are usually a bad sign for the incumbent.

Except the Brexit folks are probably still energized. We won't know until we know.

There have been two groups of protesters outside parliament for most of the last three years. There have also been a number of pro-Brexit and pro-EU rallies nationwide during that time. In all cases, the number of people prepared to get off their arses and attend these protests is a good indicator of how energised the support is for each side; And in the vast majority of cases, the Leave camp is massively outnumbered by the Remain camp.

Amongst the energised section of the populace, Remain seems to be well ahead of Leave.

How that translates to votes remains to be seen; But again, the impression given by the media is misleading - it's the viewpoint being pushed by a handful of aging billionaires with a massive vested interest in Leave.

 

[blastula]

Well I mean he and Labour voted for it. It didn't seem like their chances in an election were looking so good when they did that. Why take the chance Johnson would make gains?

As I have already implied in this thread, I strongly suspect that the impression the press are giving of Labour's chances are a long way from the actual chances of their being elected (or at least able to form a coalition government).

And what do they have to lose? No election would mean Johnson remains PM. Losing the election would also mean Johnson remains PM. Why not back yourselves as an opposition, and have a crack at persuading the voters to back a change of government?

Btw, the news I have seen suggests a large early turnout - which may well indicate a popular desire for change. Long queues before the polls open are usually a bad sign for the incumbent.

I am thinking the risk is that, as it is now, Johnson's opponents number enough to block some of his moves. They could lose that after the election.

Not sure how well their polling holds, but the latest is showing Johnson with an outright if small majority.

Tories still favourites but hung parliament a real possibility, polling suggests | Politics | The Guardian

If nobody gets a majority, doesn't the party with most seats still get first shot to form a government?