America is more racially/ethnically diverse than it was in the past according to new census results

[southernhybrid]

The results of the 2020 census were revealed yesterday and much to the surprise of some, non Hispanic White America was about 2 percentage points lower than expected.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/us/politics/census-demographic-shifts.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

At first blush, Thursday’s release of census data held great news for Democrats. It painted a portrait of a considerably more urban and metropolitan nation, with increasingly Democratic metropolitan areas bustling with new arrivals and the rural, Republican heartland steadily losing residents.

It is a much less white nation, too, with the white non-Hispanic population for the first time dropping in absolute numbers, a plunge that exceeded most experts’ estimates, and the growth in the Latino population slightly exceeding forecasts.

The new data will be used by state legislatures and commissions to redraw electoral maps, with the potential to determine control of Congress and state legislatures across the country in next year’s midterm election.

Thursday’s release, the most detailed yet from the 2020 census, depicted a nation that increasingly seems to resemble its future more than its past. The non-Hispanic white share of the population fell to 57.8 percentage points, nearly two points lower than expected, as more Americans identified as multiracial. Vast swaths of the rural United States, including an outright majority of its counties, saw their populations shrink.

“Democrats have reason to be happy with this census data set,” said Dave Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report, who cited the higher-than-expected population tallies in New York and Chicago and the steady growth of the nation’s Hispanic population.

Many Democrats had feared that Latino and urban voters would be badly undercounted amid the coronavirus pandemic and the Trump administration’s effort to ask about citizenship status.

Apparently, that didn't happen. According to an article I read in the AJC earlier today, Georgia is now only 50.1% non Hispanic White, so hopefully, if we can get out the vote, Georgia will have a Democratic governor when we vote next year, and the odds are that we are also becoming more reliably Democratic. Of course, not all Black folks vote for Democrats. I still remember how shocked one of my Black Democratic friends was when she discovered that a former classmate of hers was a Trump supporter. But, the percentage of minorities in Ga. who support Republicans is usually under about 5%. Plus, we have plenty of White people in Georgia who vote for Democrats. If the Republicans want to attract more minority voters, they will need to drastically change some of their policies.

The problem or question that I assume we are all wondering is how far will the Republican go when it comes to redistricting, in an attempt to control the House?

Democrats face great challenges in translating favorable demographic trends into electoral success, and the new census data may prove to be only the latest example. While the census shows that Democratic-leaning groups represent a growing share of the population, much of the population growth occurred in the Sun Belt, where Republicans still control the redistricting process. That gives them yet another chance to preserve their political power in the face of unfavorable demographic trends. And they are well prepared to do so.

The relatively robust number of Latino and metropolitan voters will make it more difficult for Republicans to redraw some maps to their advantage, by requiring them to draw more voters from rural Republican areas to dilute urban and metropolitan concentrations of Democratic-leaning voters. It may also help Democrats redraw maps to their favor in Illinois and New York, where they do control the redistricting process.

But there are few limits on gerrymandering, and even today’s relatively favorable data for Democrats are unlikely to be enough to overcome the expected Republican advantages in states where they enjoy full control over the redistricting process.

Right now, I'm just happy that my country is becoming more diverse. Not all of us White people have been brainwashed by Fox News pundits who are trying to make us fearful of "white replacement". I consider racial/ethnic diversity to be an asset. But, how is it possible to end gerrymandering? Both parties do it, but the Republicans have been more extreme in drawing district lines to their advantage, especially since they control so many areas on the state level.

If you are interested in reading the entire linked article, you should be able since I haven't shared any of my 10 "gift" articles yet this month.

Your thoughts.

 

[lpetrich]

Some people in some places made extra efforts to count everybody, and that effort paid off.

WNYC 🎙 on Twitter: "NYC funded a census outreach effort, spending $40 million and coordinating with dozens of local community groups who had close ties to populations that often go undercounted. Queens, Kings, Bronx, and Manhattan all had larger than expected Census counts. (link)" / Twitter
noting
NYC's Population Hits A Record 8.8 Million, According To 2020 Census - Gothamist

The surrounding suburbs have even more people. From  List of metropolitan statistical areas NYC's Metropolitan Statistical Area has a population of 20 million people. Then:

Los Angeles 13.2 M, Chicago 9.6 M, Dallas 7.6 M Houston 7.1 M, DC 6.4 M, Philadelphia 6.2 M, Miami 6.1 M, Atlanta 5.3 M, Boston 4.9 M

Census Updates: Survey Shows Which Cities Gained and Lost Population - The New York Times

Phoenix AZ grew the fastest, from 1.4 M in 2010 to 1.6 M in 2020. Its MSA grew from 4.2 to 4.8 in that time.

NYC grew by 629,000 people.

 

[lpetrich]

From that NYT article, "Americans kept migrating to cities, leaving rural areas depopulated."

Population numbers fell in more than half of the nation’s counties, even as the country’s total population increased 7.4 percent over the last decade, reaching 331.4 million.

Almost every county in Illinois shrank, making the state one of only three in the nation to lose population, even as the population rose in its largest city, Chicago.

The huge growth in Texas — which had the largest population increase of any state — came mainly in metropolitan areas like Houston, Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, while more rural counties in West Texas and the Texas Panhandle lost residents.

New York, which lost one seat in Congress, would have lost two had it not been for robust growth in New York City, which offset losses in other parts of the state. The city now accounts for nearly 44 percent of the state’s population.

In 2020, 86% of Americans lived in MSA's, and 8% more in "micropolitan" areas, between 10 K and 50 K people. That leaves only 6% of Americans in the rural areas.

The Census Bureau recognizes 384 MSA's, from the NYC area to Carson City NV, at 56 K people.

Comparing to the total population of 331 M, the 10 largest MSA's contain 26% of the US population, the 20 largest ones 38%, the 30 45%, the 40 51%, and the 50 55%. The MSA on the 50% point is the Providence RI one, at 1.7 million people.

 

[lpetrich]

Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "Large U.S. counties w/ stronger than expected Census counts (vs. estimates): ..." / Twitter

Large U.S. counties w/ stronger than expected Census counts (vs. estimates):

1. Queens, NY +8%
2. Brooklyn, NY +8%
3. Honolulu, HI +5%
4. Bronx, NY +5%
5. Manhattan, NY +5%
6. Westchester, NY +4%
7. Suffolk, NY +4%
8. Nassau, NY +3%
9. Cook, IL +3%
10. Allegheny, PA +3%

Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "Large U.S. counties w/ weaker than expected Census counts (vs. estimates): ..." / Twitter

Large U.S. counties w/ weaker than expected Census counts (vs. estimates):

1. Maricopa, AZ -3%
2. Riverside, CA -3%
3. Hillsborough, FL -2%
4. Clark, NV -2%
5. Pima, AZ -2%
6. Mecklenburg, NC -1%
7. Palm Beach, FL -1%
8. San Diego, CA - 1%
9. Fulton, GA -1%
10. Bexar, TX -1%

 

[lpetrich]

David Freedlander on Twitter: "What is fascinating about this is that in 2020 @aoc reoriented the workings of her district office for a massive, massive census push, relying on the network of activists and organizers who campaigned for her to knock on doors.

Looks like it worked" / Twitter

Dave Wasserman on Twitter: "Poring over the data, and it's clear NYC's stronger-than-expected count almost single-handedly saved New York from losing two congressional seats; in fact it came close to saving New York all 27 of its seats." / Twitter
then
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "THANK YOU ..." / Twitter

THANK YOU to all the organizers and advocates across the city who worked tirelessly on our Census efforts last year.

On top of official efforts, @TeamAOC dedicated an addtl $3M+ to Census organizing in our community.

It worked! The Bronx & Queens were top performers nationally.

Here’s an example of some of that work - pretty much everyone in this video is a local community organizer who put in a TON of work in getting their communities accurately counted. Major shout out to @JulieMenin & the NYC census team who did a stellar job!

 

[Toni]

From that NYT article, "Americans kept migrating to cities, leaving rural areas depopulated."

Population numbers fell in more than half of the nation’s counties, even as the country’s total population increased 7.4 percent over the last decade, reaching 331.4 million.

Almost every county in Illinois shrank, making the state one of only three in the nation to lose population, even as the population rose in its largest city, Chicago.

The huge growth in Texas — which had the largest population increase of any state — came mainly in metropolitan areas like Houston, Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, while more rural counties in West Texas and the Texas Panhandle lost residents.

New York, which lost one seat in Congress, would have lost two had it not been for robust growth in New York City, which offset losses in other parts of the state. The city now accounts for nearly 44 percent of the state’s population.

In 2020, 86% of Americans lived in MSA's, and 8% more in "micropolitan" areas, between 10 K and 50 K people. That leaves only 6% of Americans in the rural areas.

The Census Bureau recognizes 384 MSA's, from the NYC area to Carson City NV, at 56 K people.

Comparing to the total population of 331 M, the 10 largest MSA's contain 26% of the US population, the 20 largest ones 38%, the 30 45%, the 40 51%, and the 50 55%. The MSA on the 50% point is the Providence RI one, at 1.7 million people.

I wonder if the urban migration trend will hold. A result of the pandemic/remote work has been an exodus of those who CAN live outside of congested cities into more rural settings, i.e. vacation land. I think that trend: living at your vacation home will not hold but I do think that for younger families who are struggling with the high cost of urban areas, there will be more of an exodus to....suburbs and even small towns.

 

[southernhybrid]

From that NYT article, "Americans kept migrating to cities, leaving rural areas depopulated."

Population numbers fell in more than half of the nation’s counties, even as the country’s total population increased 7.4 percent over the last decade, reaching 331.4 million.

Almost every county in Illinois shrank, making the state one of only three in the nation to lose population, even as the population rose in its largest city, Chicago.

The huge growth in Texas — which had the largest population increase of any state — came mainly in metropolitan areas like Houston, Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, while more rural counties in West Texas and the Texas Panhandle lost residents.

New York, which lost one seat in Congress, would have lost two had it not been for robust growth in New York City, which offset losses in other parts of the state. The city now accounts for nearly 44 percent of the state’s population.

In 2020, 86% of Americans lived in MSA's, and 8% more in "micropolitan" areas, between 10 K and 50 K people. That leaves only 6% of Americans in the rural areas.

The Census Bureau recognizes 384 MSA's, from the NYC area to Carson City NV, at 56 K people.

Comparing to the total population of 331 M, the 10 largest MSA's contain 26% of the US population, the 20 largest ones 38%, the 30 45%, the 40 51%, and the 50 55%. The MSA on the 50% point is the Providence RI one, at 1.7 million people.

I wonder if the urban migration trend will hold. A result of the pandemic/remote work has been an exodus of those who CAN live outside of congested cities into more rural settings, i.e. vacation land. I think that trend: living at your vacation home will not hold but I do think that for younger families who are struggling with the high cost of urban areas, there will be more of an exodus to....suburbs and even small towns.

The Atlanta metro area includes 29 counties, so those suburbs are all included in the urban population. At least that is the impression I have been given from what I've read. I live in the first country that is considered outside of Metro Atlanta and we are seeing a lot of growth here lately, likely due to the high cost of living in ATL or areas close to ATL. ATL is now considered a city that is too expensive for the average person, however average is being defined.

 

[southernhybrid]

Here's an article that describes some of the increases in minority growth rates. in Georgia. It's probably behind a paywall, so I'll just quote parts of it.

https://www.ajc.com/news/feds-set-to-release-2020-census-data/4NT7E3XMHZFBBDK5T5IK5NNOVE/

Georgia grew substantially more diverse over the last 10 years as its Black, Hispanic and Asian populations surged and as its number of white residents dropped slightly, according to a trove of new 2020 U.S. Census data released Thursday.


Statewide, the number of Black Georgians increased by 13%, while the white population dropped by 1%. Meanwhile, the state’s Asian population jumped by 53% and its Hispanic population increased by 32%. The Peach State narrowly remained majority white at just over 50%.

The four largest Atlanta-area counties of Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett each grew by more than 10%.

However.....

Republicans control the state Legislature, so they have the authority to decide where to set political boundaries during a special session this fall. GOP lawmakers will draw maps that seek to entrench their majorities in Congress, the state House and the state Senate, while Democrats will attempt to stop them. The courts have upheld drawing districts for political purposes, meaning Republicans hold the power to determine which maps become law for the next 10 years.

During public meetings across the state, residents and advocacy groups have urged legislators to avoid gerrymandering, drawing oddly shaped districts that divide communities and reduce competition in elections. But in past redistricting years, the majority party, whether Republican or Democrat, has divvied up the state to maximize its number of seats.

 

[lpetrich]

One can use  Effective number of parties to quantify how split the US population is between the races.

That number is Neff = 1 / (sum of (fraction)^2)

where (sum of (fraction)) = 1.

Using  Historical racial and ethnic demographics of the United States and ignoring "Hispanic" as poorly sorted from the others, I found the effective number of races/ethnicities over the US's history.

1790: 1.45, 1800: 1.44, 1810: 1.44, 1820: 1.43, 1830: 1.42, 1840: 1.39, 1850: 1.36, 1860: 1.33, 1870: 1.29, 1880: 1.3, 1890: 1.28, 1900: 1.27, 1910: 1.25, 1920: 1.23, 1930: 1.23, 1940: 1.23, 1950: 1.23, 1960: 1.25, 1970: 1.28, 1980: 1.41, 1990: 1.51, 2000: 1.71, 2010: 1.82, 2020: 2.4

The effective number was higher in the early decades because the US population was mostly white and black. Over the early 19th cy. to the early 20th cy., the US got a large number of European immigrants, pushing the effective number down from 1.45 to 1.25.

It stayed there until the 1960's, when it started to rise again, with Hispanic and Asian immigrants coming in. Trump once grumbled that he wants more immigrants from Norway, but that got this response: 'Thanks, but no thanks' - Norwegians reject Trump's immigration offer | Reuters