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I don't have any math to show, but I did not give a specific number, just >0.5, i.e., it's probable. That's a probabilistic assessment on the basis of the available information, like humans normally do all the time. For example, I reckon the probability that I will persuade bilby to change his...

One of the objections often raised in these forums is that one cannot derive a moral 'ought' from an 'is'. Technically that is false, because once the meaning of the words is considered, from 'It would be immoral for agent A to do X' it follows that 'Agent A ought not to do X'. But the objection...

The following is an argument meant to prove that the square root of two is not a rational number - in other words, it is not a quotient of integers. Suppose there are integers m, n (both different from zero, obviously) such that \begin{equation} \sqrt{2}=\frac{n}{m}. \end{equation} If n...

Suppose that n and m are positive integers, and P, Q, P1,...,,Pn, Q1,...Qm are statements such that: i. P logically follows from P1,...,Pn. In other words, if we have premises P1,...,Pn, then P follows as a conclusion. ii. Similarly, Q logically follows from Q1,...,Qm. Is it true that the...

Let us consider the following two scenarios. S1: Let us suppose that Bob and Alice live in an isolated rural community, and have never heard of giraffes, moluscs, squids, elephants, or any of those things. But they meet Daniel, who is not from their community. In the context of their...

Are the following arguments valid? First argument (A1). P1: Joe is either a squid or a giraffe. P2: Joe is not a squid. C: Joe is a giraffe. A2: P1’: A giraffe is not an elephant. P2’: Joe is a giraffe. C’: Joe is not an elephant. A3: P1’’: An elephant is not a squid. P2’’: Joe...

Prompted by a debate in another thread, I would like to ask the opinion of readers of this forum - especially conservatives or libertarians - about Islam in Europe, Islam, Muslims, etc. I would like to ask readers to say what probability they assign to each of them, approximately. (i.e., to...

a. Bert forgot about the kids and chose to go to Vegas instead. Does he deserve punishment? b. Boltzmann Bert is psychologically and physically indistinguishable from Bert except for location, but lives on a distant Boltzmann planet in Boltzmann planetary system (which are like Boltzmann brains...