Honestly, this feels like the calm before the storm, pun not intended. The GOP is being reckless at best right now with our democracy, and possibly attempting to seize it at worst.
ACA is still here, and assuming the tea leaves are read correctly, it isn't going anywhere.
I don't know. It's going to be interesting (hopefully in a good way, and not in a train wreck way) to see of the more liberal wing can convince the 'moderate' dems to slide to the left and be more consistent in their messaging. It won't be the full on take over like we saw with the teaparty and the gop, because progressives aren't monsters like that, but it would be nice. I think it might actually start to happen this election cycle.
"The polls were off in 2020 in almost the same ways they were off in 2016."
The Literary Digest. In 1936, it ran a massive poll and found that Republican Alf Landon would win the Presidency that year. But FDR won, causing a lot of embarrassment. The poll involved car-registration lists and the like, and this sampling effect was uncorrected for in that poll.
IL-14's margin is up, and is now D +0.67%
Biden's lead is slowly increasing in GA (+0.29%) and slowly decreasing in AZ (+0.39%).
Why a Trump Loss May Be No Match for Rupert Murdoch’s Realpolitik - The New York Times - Fox News will outlast Trump's Presidency
Does Trump’s Defeat Signal the Start of Populism’s Decline Globally? - The New York Times - "Populist leaders may have lost their most prominent champion, but their economic, social and political grievances remain potent."
Not that Trump ever did anything helpful.
False Claims That Biden ‘Lost’ Pennsylvania Surge - The New York Times - social-media companies like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube have been smacking them down, labeling them and even sometimes shutting them down
What Went Wrong With Polling? Some Early Theories - The New York Times - "Pollsters thought they had learned from the errors of 2016. It’s possible that they did, and that this election reflects new problems."
"The polls were off in 2020 in almost the same ways they were off in 2016."
Then lots of theories of why the polls failed. Theories based on imperfect correction for sampling, the sort of thing that sank
Exit polling indicates Trump won Florida. The GOP spent two years scaring the fuck out of the refugees in Florida about socialism.... it worked.IL-14's margin is up, and is now D +0.67%
Biden's lead is slowly increasing in GA (+0.29%) and slowly decreasing in AZ (+0.39%).
Why a Trump Loss May Be No Match for Rupert Murdoch’s Realpolitik - The New York Times - Fox News will outlast Trump's Presidency
Does Trump’s Defeat Signal the Start of Populism’s Decline Globally? - The New York Times - "Populist leaders may have lost their most prominent champion, but their economic, social and political grievances remain potent."
Not that Trump ever did anything helpful.
False Claims That Biden ‘Lost’ Pennsylvania Surge - The New York Times - social-media companies like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube have been smacking them down, labeling them and even sometimes shutting them down
What Went Wrong With Polling? Some Early Theories - The New York Times - "Pollsters thought they had learned from the errors of 2016. It’s possible that they did, and that this election reflects new problems."
"The polls were off in 2020 in almost the same ways they were off in 2016."
Then lots of theories of why the polls failed. Theories based on imperfect correction for sampling, the sort of thing that sank
One possibility is fraud. Perhaps the polls are right, and it's the vote counts that are unreflective of voter intentions.
My only evidence for this is that Trump almost invariably accuses his opponents of doing whatever he is currently guilty of.
It would explain why those states that were expected to be most important (particularly Florida) had such large differences between polling and actual results, while those states that were expected to be solidly red (eg GA and TX) were closer to the opinion pollsters' predictions. Fraud is difficult and risky, so you would want to concentrate your crimes in those places where they would be most effective and least obvious.
Certainly I have no trouble at all in imagining the Florida officials having a sizeable thumb on the scales.
As an FYI, a recount is not required by law. Trump does have a problem with Georgia though... he needs its votes. While W was able to play out the clock, Trump actually needs more votes than Biden to win the state, which will require disenfranchising over ten thousand, mainly minority votes.article said:
Yes, William Jennings Bryan was a populist and was not Trump. Populism definitely has wings to it, and generally people are talking about right-wing populism when mentioning the term these days.
Anyone catch Rep. Collins request for recount? He seems to fall just short of requesting sign affidavits of every person that 'allegedly' voted for Joe Biden.
Prof. Jonathan Gienapp noted that there were some close, contested elections in the past. "But none of these earlier examples featured what we see now: a completely manufactured controversy based on no evidence whatsoever, purely to maintain power, and to overturn a legitimate election." and "Trump’s refusal to concede and his congressional allies’ refusal to object to what he is doing is indeed most dangerous. If it continues to be given oxygen, it’s hard not to think that there could be lasting damage to the republic." and that this "is what rot looks like."
Prof. Richard Johnson pointed out some similarities to the end of Reconstruction in the late 19th cy., a period which "provides many unfortunate examples of election losers refusing to accept defeat, as well as examples of constitutional chicanery and political violence to overturn U.S. election results." He described in a book he wrote "the refusal of Democrats in Louisiana and North Carolina to accept local elections which saw Black Republicans in municipal offices. In these disputes — in Colfax, Louisiana and Wilmington, North Carolina — the election winners and their supporters were murdered and the local party infrastructure (e.g., printing houses of supportive newspapers, local party headquarters) were burnt to the ground."
He suspects something much worse will eventually happen. “Trump will be seen as significant, but really just a minor blip compared to the crisis that lay ahead.” We have been saved from the worst by Trump's incompetence, like his remarkable lack of maturity. But someone more level-headed could cause a LOT of trouble.
He then noted that one of his opponents, Ted Cruz, called him a pathological liar, someone who believes his own lies. That was before TC became a full-on Trumpie.
