Derec writes:
Marco Rubio
He seems to have fizzled, especially since his immigration push wasn't received well by the base, and unless he reinvents himself I doubt he will mount a serious campaign.
He's already mounting a serious campaign. He isn't as publicly active as some, but behind the scenes he is raising money and building a campaign organization. I agree, however, that he needs to reinvent himself as a moderate Republican I don't think he can re-build his image as a conservative. The question also arises of what he will do if Jeb Bush runs. At this point, Jeb would be a heavy favorite, I think, in Florida.
Rick Santorum
Technically runner-up from last time, something Republicans love (Romney, McCain, Bush Sr., Reagan). However he hasn't done much since his Senate loss in 2006 and political memories are short.
He's also working hard behind the scenes but his poll numbers are awful. He usually gets only 2-3% in national polls. Some pollsters no longer even include him. I suspect that his personal appeal was not that great, and that he simply emerged as the "not Romney" candidate in 2012. I also suspect that lots of evangelicals voted for him because Romney was a Mormon, and Santorum will not be able to get that kind of vote against a Huckabee or a Ted Cruz.
Ben Carson
A little smarter, perhaps, but I agree. It's doubtful that he's ready for prime time.
Rand Paul
He is more mainstream than his pro-Putin dad and will be a formidable force in the primaries I think. But what's with the curls?
I agree. He's tried to take the rough edges off his father's ideology and meanwhile the public, including Republicans, have gotten pretty tired of war, so his dovish foreign policy won't hurt him much and may help him. Why does everyone make such a big deal about his hair? If he does make it, I suppose it will be like Jimmy Carter's teeth were in his presidency.
Ted Cruz
Placed 2nd in the CPAC straw poll but very abrasive. Identity politics hispanic bonus but born in Canada so birthers should have much indigestion trying to square that circle.
He place WAY behind in second place. He's a fringe candidate, and he will need to get out of that fringe if he wants to win. He's abrasive in the Senate, but he's a very good speaker on the campaign trail. But hey! He just entered the Senate a year ago, and he's never held elective office before yet now he's a national figure so his fingeness has paid off so far. Does he dare "moderate" his views? I doubt he can pull it off. If he's runs he'll be a spoiler, but who will he spoil it for?
Scott Walker
First governor pick here. In recent history governors have been preferred (Bush Jr., Clinton, Reagan, Carter) because they both have governing experience and are Washington outsiders. Walker is a tea party governor from a pink state which should help him.
I smell a Tim Pawlenty here, but first he's got to win re-election which is no foregone conclusion. I don't know what is so special about Walker. He won a battle with the unions, but that's one issue. Although he's billed as a staunch conservative, he's popular with the Washington establishment, and so he gets a lot of attention from the Washington media. Other than that, there's really not much to recommend him.
Peter King
No. He really thinks about running?
He not only thinks about it, he talks about it. He's a military industrial, intelligence industry hack. If he runs, it will probably be to keep up attacks on Rand Paul.
Donald Trump
He'll make a lot of noise but in the end will do nothing.
Agreed. He won't want to file all those income disclosure forms.
Mike Huckabee
Co-runner up in 2008 (he got a few more delegates than Romney but Romney, who quit before Huckabee, got more votes and states) can perhaps claim the next-in-line mantle since Romney is spent and Santorum is well, himself. Also, if not for Thompson he'd have won SC (Thompson split the evangelical vote) and the whole race would have looked very different. Also he was a two term governor and has a sort of folksy charm many people like. Questionables are his fitness level (he seems to have gained weight again) and willingness to leave the Fox News gig.
He's already announced that he's leaving the Fox News gig, but it's to start another news project that he will own. A Glenn Beck type of thing I assume. That's even less compatible with a presidential campaign than his Fox News gig. But encouraging speculation about a candidacy is quite compatible with a new news project, so I don't expect him to run. He's popular with evangelicals would certainly be a force to deal with, but fiscal conservatives don't like him. They feel he was big spender as governor of Arkansas.
Chris Christie
One of the few Republican governors in a blue state (however, Romney was one too and that didn't help). Lately mired in scandal. Also NJ is kicking Tesla out under his watch which is could be fodder for campaign ads.
He's already lost the front-runner spot due to scandal and investigations are still on-going and not just about "Bridgegate." If Christie is a typical New Jersey politician, and he seems to be, then there should be plenty out there to get on him. He's pro-gun control and pro-amnesty. That would doom him in quite a few contests including-Iowa and probably South Carolina and maybe even Florida. Momentum lost is hard to re-gain.
Jeb Bush
Just what we need, another Bush-Clinton race! Also Barbara doesn't want him to run. On the plus side, FL is an important swing state, he is married to a hispanic woman (for those that vote based on identity politics) and he is considered "the smart Bush brother".
He's a better campaigner than George and yes, he's the type who can tell what's on line 39 of the budget. Much better with facts and figures than his brother, but probably not as likable. He has all the connections. He's got grass-roots and he's got establishment connections as well. He should be able to raise a lot of money. But he's a Bush. The big advantage is the big defect. George Bush isn't too popular these days even, or perhaps especially, with Republicans. Jeb is usually in the top three in polling, but that's not particularly impressive when you consider his name-identification advantage.
Paul Ryan
Losing VP candidates don't make good candidates in their own right. Last losing running mate to win their party's nomination was Bob Dole and he had to wait 20 years and become Senate Majority Leader in the interim. He still lost in the general.
They usually poll well early on but collapse when they start counting the votes. You have to be able to build a solid organization and raise money and all that folderol and VP candidates don't usually have much experience at doing that.
Sarah Palin
Still has a considerable fan base in the GOP but I do not think she is really serious about running. If she was she'd work to establish a thicker and more recent resume.
I think she knows her limitations better than her fans do. She knows what she can do with her celebrity, and she taking advantage of it. Meanwhile, why risk anymore?
What about Susanna Martinez of New Mexico?
Tim Pawlenty in a dress.
