Virginia and New Jersey Governor Races 2021

[lpetrich]

On November 2 will be the governors' elections for Virginia and New Jersey, and the VA Gov race has already attracted a lot of attention.

Virginia gubernatorial election, 2021 - Ballotpedia
Virginia Governor Polls | FiveThirtyEight
It's Terry McAuliffe D vs. Glenn Youngkin R

TM has been ahead of GY by 3% since mid-August.

Also up for election is the lower house in the VA legislature, the Virginia General Assembly - Ballotpedia

The VA Senate is elected every 4 years, and its next elections are in 2023. It is currently D 21 R 19. The VA House of Delegates is elected every 2 years, and its next elections are this year. It is currently D 55 R 45. The Democrats took both chambers from the Republicans in 2019, ending a long streak of Republican control of the House in that year.


New Jersey gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2021 - Ballotpedia
New Jersey Governor Polls | FiveThirtyEight
It's Phil Murphy D vs. Jack Ciattarelli R

There is not much polling of this race, but it looks like a close one, with PM ahead of JC by around 3%.

Also up for election is both houses in the NJ legislature, the New Jersey State Legislature - Ballotpedia

The NJ Senate is elected in a 2-4-4 pattern of years, starting at each year 10x+1, and its next elections are this year. It is currently D 25 R 15. The NJ General Assembly is elected every 2 years, and its next elections are this year. It is currently D 52 R 28. Both parties have had Democratic control since 2003.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump fans election fraud theme as Virginia governor candidate Youngkin walks tightrope - The Washington Post

Former president Donald Trump on Wednesday warned that Democrats might try to steal the Virginia governor's race, pegging his prediction on baseless claims of 2020 election fraud that Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin has flirted with but not fully embraced.

“You know how they cheat in elections. The Virginia governor’s election — you better watch it,” Trump said in an appearance on the John Fredericks Radio Show. “You have a close race in Virginia, but it’s not close if they cheat.”

Trump's praise complicates Glenn Youngkin's attempted pivot to the political middle in Virginia - CNNPolitics

Glenn Youngkin is doing everything he can to run as a Republican outsider in Virginia's gubernatorial election. But former President Donald Trump is muddling that strategy.

This problem for Youngkin was highlighted on Friday when the former President -- who handily lost Virginia in both 2016 and 2020 -- issued a statement praising the Republican businessman and attacking Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe, who led the commonwealth from 2014 to 2018.

Trump lauded Youngkin's poll numbers and called him an "incredible success" and "highly respected person" who will "truly Make Virginia Great Again," tying the Republican candidate to the President's own campaign slogan. He then went on to attack McAuliffe as a "failed and unpopular governor" who took campaign donations from him and "would do whatever I wanted."

Except that GY isn't exactly welcoming Trump's endorsement.

"Trump is deeply unpopular where Youngkin needs the votes," said Chris Saxman, a former Republican state senator who blogs about Virginia politics.

GY has tried to portray himself as an outsider to politics, almost as if he is trying to hide his Republican affiliation from many voters.

"Let me ask everybody a question: In our communities, in our house of worship or right here at work, does anyone really care what political party we belong to?" Youngkin asks in one television ad.

The businessman's public message, particularly in his paid advertising, has also focused on broad proposals aimed at the middle of the electorate -- including a series of state tax and benefit policy proposals to assist military veterans that the Republican nominee announced this week -- and less about the kind of culture war issues that animated Trump's tenure.

Youngkin made that clear in a newly surfaced video that shows the Republican last month telling a liberal activist posing as an abortion opponent that while he could "go on offense" on abortion, focusing on the issue "won't win my independent votes that I have to get."

 

[lpetrich]

McAuliffe releases new ad tying Youngkin to Trump on coronavirus | TheHill

"Like Donald Trump, Glenn Youngkin refuses to take coronavirus seriously," the ad's narrator says, citing Youngkin's opposition to vaccine and mask mandates.

...
While McAuliffe has called for vaccine and mask mandates, Youngkin has stopped short of calling for the measures but has touted the importance of vaccinations.

Youngkin breaks with Trump on whether Democrats will cheat in the Virginia governor's race | TheHill

"No, I think we're going to have a clean, fair election and I fully expect to win," Youngkin told moderator Susan Page at the first Virginia general election debate of the cycle.

Additionally, Youngkin said he did not believe there had been significant fraud in Virginia's elections.

That's very generous of him.

Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee on Twitter: "Virginians have begun heading to the polls for the start of in-person early voting! ...

Virginians have begun heading to the polls for the start of in-person early voting! They'll elect a new governor & determine whether Dems will continue to hold a majority in the state House. The contrast between the GOP & Dems couldn't be starker. Here’s what’s at stake

If they regain the majority in the state House, Republicans have said they’ll ban abortion & defund Planned Parenthood. They’re also committed to repealing Medicaid expansion, which would rip health care coverage away from 500,000+ Virginians.

Many of the GOP House candidates have either lied about the effectiveness of vaccines or opposed vaccine mandates. The Virginia GOP is also fundamentally opposed to democracy, threatening to roll back voting rights.

The Virginia GOP had more lawmakers in attendance at the January 6th insurrection than any other state. Republicans are running insurrectionist candidates who’ve promised to hold hearings questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election if they regain control.

We can’t allow Republicans to roll back the clock on all the progress Dems have made in Virginia. Help support the 26 Democratic candidates in the most competitive must-win races in Virginia this year. (donation link)

 

[lpetrich]

Virginia Governor Polls | FiveThirtyEight
RealClearPolitics - Election 2021 - Virginia Governor - Youngkin vs. McAuliffe

538 puts Terry McAuliffe D ahead of Glenn Youngkin R by 2.5%, and RCP by 4.3%

The two politicians have had a nearly constant polling difference since mid-August, when 538 had 3.3% and RCP had 5.5%.

The election is 4 weeks away, and the two politicians will likely be neck-and-neck for the rest of the race.

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New Jersey Governor Polls | FiveThirtyEight
RealClearPolitics - Election 2021 - New Jersey Governor - Ciattarelli vs. Murphy

Neither 538 nor RCP has an estimate for the NJ Gov polling, but from the polls they mention,

Phil Murphy D is ahead of Jack Ciattarelli R: (Sep 17-25) +9, (Sep 16-20) +13 (Sep 13-16) +3

Seems like PM will likely win.

 

[Rhea]

The virginia race is being fought hard, with some outlets saying Youngkin has a lead. But the polls not entirely clear on that.

McAulliff’s behavior walking out on an interview doesn’t seem to have done him any good.