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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

SLD said:
An 80% casualty rate will suck the oxygen right out of your offensive immediately.
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This has been Russia's military policy since well before the Putinistas grabbed power. It's just part of how they wage war and isn't going to go away anytime soon.
 
T.G.G. Moogly said:
SLD said:
An 80% casualty rate will suck the oxygen right out of your offensive immediately.
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This has been Russia's military policy since well before the Putinistas grabbed power. It's just part of how they wage war and isn't going to go away anytime soon.
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That’s largely myth. Russia in WWII certainly sustained huge casualties. But their offensive operations, especially later in the war, we’re certainly not human wave attacks with 80% casualty rates. That wasn’t how they conducted operations in Afghanistan. They did emphasize combined arms, and maneuver warfare. But yes, they have been willing to lose large numbers. Dictators can afford to do that. But it doesn’t always help. Remember, Patton’s adage, it’s not about dying for your country, it’s about making the other poor bastard die for his.

In the end, Ukraine doesn’t really need to drive Russia out of all of their territory. They just need to hang on and make Russia suffer huge casualties trying to advance. They can afford to lose some ground. Putin won’t be around forever.

IAE, here’s an interesting article about decision centric warfare and the lessons from the conflict.

thehill.com

Ukraine’s ‘decision-centric’ military needs more than armor to win

The Biden administration’s decision to send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine is being heralded as a sign that the United States and its Western allies will back Kyiv’s efforts to retake Russian…
thehill.com thehill.com

i don’t think 130 modern tanks is likely to make a huge difference. It can help in local battles. It can blunt Russia’s offensive. But I note that the US has 2500 M1 in service and another 3700 in strategic reserve. they'll need a thousand to really make a difference. Plus another 1000 Leopards. That would fuck Russia up. In truth we need to supply them a lot more advanced weaponry and the training to go with it. Training could be done in Poland. They need to use Poland as basically a supply, refitting and training base. And not just for the tanks, but for everything.
 
SLD said:

i don’t think 130 modern tanks is likely to make a huge difference. It can help in local battles. It can blunt Russia’s offensive. But I note that the US has 2500 M1 in service and another 3700 in strategic reserve. they'll need a thousand to really make a difference. Plus another 1000 Leopards. That would fuck Russia up. In truth we need to supply them a lot more advanced weaponry and the training to go with it. Training could be done in Poland. They need to use Poland as basically a supply, refitting and training base. And not just for the tanks, but for everything.
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It doesn't need to make a "huge" difference or "fuck Russia up." I'd hazard a guess that Western nations aren't looking for Ukraine to have a spectacular victory that pushes Russians back to Moscow by summer. They want to push Russia past a tipping point where they say "we've had enough" and settle for a negotiated settlement. The problem appears to be that Putin hasn't grasped the fact that his nation is no longer a near-peer to the rest of the folks who sit at the UN Security Council table, and will continue to act as if the "Russian Bear" is still a fearsome force.

He (obviously) needs to go, but I'd also guess that the West doesn't want the Russian government to collapse in the aftermath of a stunning "fuck Russia up" defeat. There's the looming threat of Putin playing the nuclear card, but if his inner circle decides to give him a push out a window and take over themselves to end the war, it is better than having the whole shebang fall apart like it did a few decades ago. A cornered, weakened Russia is better than a Russia gripped by yet another revolution.
 
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SLD said:
That’s largely myth. Russia in WWII certainly sustained huge casualties. But their offensive operations, especially later in the war, we’re certainly not human wave attacks with 80% casualty rates. That wasn’t how they conducted operations in Afghanistan. They did emphasize combined arms, and maneuver warfare. But yes, they have been willing to lose large numbers. Dictators can afford to do that. But it doesn’t always help. Remember, Patton’s adage, it’s not about dying for your country, it’s about making the other poor bastard die for his.

In the end, Ukraine doesn’t really need to drive Russia out of all of their territory. They just need to hang on and make Russia suffer huge casualties trying to advance. They can afford to lose some ground. Putin won’t be around forever.

IAE, here’s an interesting article about decision centric warfare and the lessons from the conflict.

thehill.com

Ukraine’s ‘decision-centric’ military needs more than armor to win

The Biden administration’s decision to send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine is being heralded as a sign that the United States and its Western allies will back Kyiv’s efforts to retake Russian…
thehill.com thehill.com

i don’t think 130 modern tanks is likely to make a huge difference. It can help in local battles. It can blunt Russia’s offensive. But I note that the US has 2500 M1 in service and another 3700 in strategic reserve. they'll need a thousand to really make a difference. Plus another 1000 Leopards. That would fuck Russia up. In truth we need to supply them a lot more advanced weaponry and the training to go with it. Training could be done in Poland. They need to use Poland as basically a supply, refitting and training base. And not just for the tanks, but for everything.
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Good article. Perhaps another reason in the seemingly slow-walk of weapon systems to Ukraine is basically in learning to walk before they run. About integrating this new armament properly and effectively in concert with existing systems so it's not wasted giving the reprehensible Republicans something to scream about.

I think when the dust settles and the remaining Ukrainian warfighters return, they will be some of the better military trainers Europe has to offer. I'm sure all their creativity on the battlefield is being documented and saved to train their future forces. The military is big on "lessons learned". What went right and what went wrong and how do we improve. I think when all is said and done, Ukraine's admittance to NATO won't take as long as we might currently think. There's going to be a lot of experience and knowledge in the Ukrainian Armed Forces that would really benefit NATO.

Russia, achieving anything close to a modern day Command and Control structure is surely an impossibility now if it ever was one. Putin's magnum opus has seen to that.
 
The problem is that we don't really know the real state of Ukraine's military right now. Their OPSEC is tight as babushka's butt. Clearly, they've had enough casualties in Bakhmut and Soledar because the defensive lines broke. But how much do they have left? Nobody knows. Us spectators can merely speculate based on what's happening on the battlefield: who's gaining ground, who's able to repel attacks.

Do they have enough gas in the tank to take advantage of the Leopards and Bradleys by the time they get them 3-6 months from now?
 
SLD said:
That’s largely myth. Russia in WWII certainly sustained huge casualties. But their offensive operations, especially later in the war, we’re certainly not human wave attacks with 80% casualty rates. That wasn’t how they conducted operations in Afghanistan.
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Let me amend by saying that this is how Russian dictators have always waged war.
 
The president of Chechia is largely a ceremonial post, although the post is influential in the politics of the country. Its outgoing president is Milos Zeman, who was known as something of a Putin supporter until last February's invasion. So he was in favor with barbos earlier on in this thread. Zeman likened to the invasion to something of a "cold shower" for him and other pro-Putin Westerners. For the past year, Zeman has been a rabid critic of Putin and even called for Putin to be hauled before a war crimes court. So he stopped being talked about favorably in the Russian propaganda circus.

Interview: Czech President Wants Putin Before War Crimes Court​


A new president of Chechia has now been elected: Petr Pavel. His chief rival was Andrej Babis, but Pavel won in a landslide. He is an ex-NATO general and is firmly aligned with Western democracies. Babis was considered more aligned with the idea of a populist oligarchy, and he was promoted by a fake website and emails hosted on Russia's Yandex server. Towards the end of the race, Babis claimed he was getting death threats and stopped campaigning, probably realizing that he had no chance of winning. The Russian propaganda mill spread the rumor that Pavel had died, and Pavel was forced to dispel the rumor on Twitter.

Petr Pavel: Ex-general beats populist rival in Czech election​


From the article:

Mr Pavel has backed keeping the Czech Republic anchored in the European Union and Nato and has come out strongly in favour of further military aid for Ukraine to fight against Russia's invasion.

By contrast, Mr Babis was forced to backtrack earlier this week after he suggested that he would not live up to the country's obligations to defend a fellow Nato member if attacked.
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Reports are coming in from Ukraine that the Russians have been deploying rubber decoy tanks in Ukraine. Apparently hoping to cause Ukraine to waste munitions destroying these rubber decoys. Unfortunately their rubber tanks don't hold air and deflate, fooling nobody.
 
ZiprHead said:
Why does it take a year to get US tanks to Ukraine?
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We are the biggest arms supplier in the world, and we have a lot of orders to fill. I believe that both Taiwan and Poland have high priority back orders--the Taiwanese to beef up defenses against imminent attack and the Poles to replace the old Soviet tanks that they sent into Ukraine. There is a factory in Lima, Ohio, that is trying to fill all the orders expeditiously, so we are probably running at full capacity right now. Ukraine is being moved to the head of the line, but the other countries feel that they have urgent needs, as well.
 
Ukrainian army maybe so-and-so, and losing rapidly. But I'm still amazed at how good Ukrainians are at their propaganda.

Take these two videos:





The music choices are just golden.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Reports are coming in from Ukraine that the Russians have been deploying rubber decoy tanks in Ukraine. Apparently hoping to cause Ukraine to waste munitions destroying these rubber decoys. Unfortunately their rubber tanks don't hold air and deflate, fooling nobody.
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The British used inflatable tanks in WWII, as part of their misdirection campaign to persuade the Germans that the D-Day landings would be at Calais.

Apparently, the biggest problem was stopping them from looking absurdly cuddly.
 
TV and credit cards said:
ZiprHead said:
Why does it take a year to get US tanks to Ukraine?
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We’ve got hundreds of them just sitting in the desert.
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Sure, but they're 9,986km from Kherson, and they're types for which Ukrainian operators are not trained.

It's a lot easier to ship them former Soviet equipment from places like Poland, which the Ukrainian Military are already familiar with and trained to operate (and for which they already have stockpiles of ammunition and spare parts).

Particularly if the Poles are already a long way down the path of replacing their ex-Soviet equipment with NATO equipment, and of training their own forces to operate that new gear.

So that's what has been happening up to now, and that's why it's taken so long to start getting US equipment into Ukraine.
 
barbos said:
Jayjay said:
But I'm still amazed at how good Ukrainians are at their propaganda
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Their wannabee hitler president was a TV clown in his prior life. He knows thing or two about being good at TV shit.
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Unlike the wannabe Stalin president of Russia, who was a murderous KGB clown in occupied East Germany in his prior life. The KGB clown doesn't know a thing about being good at TV shit, but he is still pretty good at murdering people. Stalin would be proud.
 
bilby said:
TV and credit cards said:
ZiprHead said:
Why does it take a year to get US tanks to Ukraine?
Click to expand...
We’ve got hundreds of them just sitting in the desert.
Click to expand...
Sure, but they're 9,986km from Kherson, and they're types for which Ukrainian operators are not trained.

It's a lot easier to ship them former Soviet equipment from places like Poland, which the Ukrainian Military are already familiar with and trained to operate (and for which they already have stockpiles of ammunition and spare parts).

Particularly if the Poles are already a long way down the path of replacing their ex-Soviet equipment with NATO equipment, and of training their own forces to operate that new gear.

So that's what has been happening up to now, and that's why it's taken so long to start getting US equipment into Ukraine.
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Sure, but a year? I think this was a somewhat hollow promise to get the Leopards moving. The US has no problem moving heavy equipment around the globe. On a bad day we can get these tanks across the US and the Atlantic in less than a month, I'm sure. We started moving Abrams tanks back to Germany after Russia invaded Crimea. How many the US has in Europe, I know not.
The issue is between manufacturing new M1A2s or reworking M1A1s. The US version has armor that is not for export and cannot readily be changed. Egypt has over a thousand of them already in export configuration. So this "a year" guff doesn't wash.

Further, training for the Abrams is based on the average enlisted dude: slow and methodical. Lengthy training is only provided to those with a six year commitment. Ukraine will be sending guys who can learn at a faster rate. Training will likely be halved. The Leopards are designed with the conscript in mind. Much less training required.
 
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