A Republican intellectual explains why the Republican Party is going to die

[Cheerful Charlie]

The GOP won't die. It will mutate. Into what only Cthulhu knows. Eisenhower responsible moderate Republicanism is almost dead and we won't see that rise from the slimepits of the GOP anytime soon. The Orcs will scavenge the corpse for some time to come. But it seems from the success so far of Trump, that that sort of shambling mishapened type of conservatism sells. Cruz obviously has his eyes on 2020. Lay in a big supply of rubber boot and latex gloves, you will need them.

 

[Underseer]

The GOP won't die. It will mutate. Into what only Cthulhu knows. Eisenhower responsible moderate Republicanism is almost dead and we won't see that rise from the slimepits of the GOP anytime soon. The Orcs will scavenge the corpse for some time to come. But it seems from the success so far of Trump, that that sort of shambling mishapened type of conservatism sells. Cruz obviously has his eyes on 2020. Lay in a big supply of rubber boot and latex gloves, you will need them.

Responsible? Eisenhower built the very military-industrial complex he warned us about. I'd hardly call that responsible. Some of what's going on right now is a direct result of things Eisenhower did.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The GOP won't die. It will mutate. Into what only Cthulhu knows. Eisenhower responsible moderate Republicanism is almost dead and we won't see that rise from the slimepits of the GOP anytime soon. The Orcs will scavenge the corpse for some time to come. But it seems from the success so far of Trump, that that sort of shambling mishapened type of conservatism sells. Cruz obviously has his eyes on 2020. Lay in a big supply of rubber boot and latex gloves, you will need them.

Responsible? Eisenhower built the very military-industrial complex he warned us about. I'd hardly call that responsible. Some of what's going on right now is a direct result of things Eisenhower did.

Eisenhower won election as a republican by assuring America that he would not follow the Republican crazies of his time who were fulminating against Roosevelt's new deal policies, vowing to roll back policies such as Social Security.

A big part of why Goldwater lost was because he signed on with the crazies to go back to that crusade to roll back Social Security. Today, the GOP has abandoned that rhetoric and now vows to "fix" social security. Of course they crazies such as Cruz vow to eliminate Obamacare. The GOP crazies we have had since the days of Truman. Who's the new Eisenhower of the GOP who will vow to not go with the crazy?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

 

[lpetrich]

Thanx to  Duverger's Law, the US has been dominated by pairs of political parties over its history. But once every so often, they reorganize.

 First Party System: 1796 - 1824
The creators of the US Constitution wanted no political parties, but they could not keep people from dividing themselves into factions.

Federalist Party: Alexander Hamilton
Democratic-Republican Party: Thomas Jefferson, James Madison

The Feds dominated until 1800, then the D-R's after that, with the Feds gradually dwindling to a few isolated strongholds, and then disappearing.

 Second Party System: 1828 - 1854
The Democratic-Republican Party split in two.

Democratic Party: Andrew Jackson
National Republican Party, then Whig Party: Henry Clay

 Third Party System: 1854 - 1896
Whig Party collapsed, Republican Party emerges.

Democratic Party: southern, associated with liturgical churches (Catholic, some Protestant)
Republican Party: northern, associated with pietistic churches (Protestant)

 Fourth Party System: 1896 - 1932
Republican Party dominates, both parties continue

Democratic Party: "wet", anti-Prohibition
Republican Party: "dry", pro-Prohibition

 Fifth Party System: 1932 -
The New Deal Coalition.

Both parties continue.

However, historians of US political history argue about whether it still continues, or whether it has ended and a Sixth Party System has emerged. Part of the problem is that the transition has been very gradual, and not as fast as the previous transitions have been, with the previously-dominant party losing big in the House twice in a row.

There has been a major realignment over the last half century. Southern Democrats have moved to the Republican Party, while Northern states have become more and more Democratic. This realignment started back when the Democratic Party started to support the black civil-rights movement, and it has continued ever since, with such events as the recent resignation of Maine Republican Senator Olympia Snowe.

As the Republican Party goes farther in changing from the party of Abraham Lincoln to the party of Jefferson Davis, it misses an opportunity to get additional voters: Hispanics. The Republicans could appeal to them with social conservativism and anti-welfarism, but instead it prefers to associate itself with those who suspect Hispanics of mostly being illegal immigrants if not common criminals. This increases the risk that the Republicans could go the way of the Federalists or the Whigs: gradually dwindling into irrelevance.


It's interesting to try to fit the party systems into the Schlesingers' history cycles. A new party system starts at the start of each of their liberal periods or shortly before, and continues for one of their liberal-conservative cycles. However, the fifth one has continued into a second liberal-conservative cycle, gradually turning into a possible sixth one.

So I think that the United States is due for another political upheaval.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I have to say that you are right. That was the mantra after Romney lost that he wasn't conservative enough for the general election voters. Which is crazy, it assumes that there are independents and Democrats for whom the Republican party isn't conservative enough!

"Crazy" is a kind description.It's part of that special kind of cognitive dissonance that makes a person feel the only reason so few agree with them is because they haven't explained it well enough.

It's difficult to push a minority agenda. The first step is to gain control of one's own party. The GOP elite of the last generation decided the best way to gain control was to ally themselves with the religious right, and accept their social control through government power. This brought in the abortion and gay issues, something a true conservative would believe are not government concerns.

Once the religious right had a place at the table, Republican moderates were pushed out. They were labeled RINO's and worse. A true Republican had to be concerned with what women did with their uterus and what men did in their bedrooms.

The problem with pushing out moderates is there is no one left to say, "Yes, but...". When a loon like Trump comes along, there's no one to hold the middle. The base has been listening to lies for so long, they no longer can tell the difference.

Not true, they just don't care what the truth is. These people are dangerous!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Damn Athenians are standing in the way of imperial progress.