Alan Lichtmann Predicts

[starwater]

Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick

Historian Allan Lichtman has announced his prediction on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election.

www.usatoday.com

The keys include whether:

• The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections
• The sitting president is running for re-election FALSE -
• The White House party is avoiding a primary contest -
• There is a third-party challenger
• The short-term economy is strong
• The long-term economy growth has been as good as the last two terms
• The White House party has made major changes to national policy
• There is sustained social unrest during the term
• The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic
• The challenger is uncharismatic
• The incumbent is charismatic
• The White House party has major failure in foreign policy
• The White House party has foreign policy success.

Eight of these go to Harris Walz - so they win.

 

[ideologyhunter]

I predict that, if Harris goes to 270 or over, the Repubs will launch a wave of legal challenges and attempt to throw the election to the House. Democracy means nothing to them.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I predict that, if Harris goes to 270 or over, the Repubs will launch a wave of legal challenges and attempt to throw the election to the House. Democracy means nothing to them.

It'll be much harder to do that in 2024 than in 2020.

 

[ideologyhunter]

I predict that, if Harris goes to 270 or over, the Repubs will launch a wave of legal challenges and attempt to throw the election to the House. Democracy means nothing to them.

It'll be much harder to do that in 2024 than in 2020.

Hope so...but in states like Georgia, they now have various voting district officials who can refuse to certify the vote.
Also, I didn't quite have it right in my earlier post. As I understand it, the House gets to decide the election if neither candidate reaches 270, or if there is a tie. Conceivably, Harris could win the popular vote in a purple state but be unable to get the vote certified by that state. Or a court challenge could hang things up. Nothing is too low for the Repubs -- they have shown it over and over, and they have learned from Trump. Try to get any Repub to simply say on camera that they will accept the results of the election. It's no longer in their heads that the will of the voters is sovereign.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I predict that, if Harris goes to 270 or over, the Repubs will launch a wave of legal challenges and attempt to throw the election to the House. Democracy means nothing to them.

It'll be much harder to do that in 2024 than in 2020.

Hope so...but in states like Georgia, they now have various voting district officials who can refuse to certify the vote.
Also, I didn't quite have it right in my earlier post. As I understand it, the House gets to decide the election if neither candidate reaches 270, or if there is a tie. Conceivably, Harris could win the popular vote in a purple state but be unable to get the vote certified by that state. Or a court challenge could hang things up. Nothing is too low for the Repubs -- they have shown it over and over, and they have learned from Trump. Try to get any Repub to simply say on camera that they will accept the results of the election. It's no longer in their heads that the will of the voters is sovereign.

As an FYI, a candidate needs > 50% of the cast electoral votes.

Additionally, states likely require the certification of votes by a certain date within their own state. You'd need a great deal of red insulation to protect delinquent submissions. Worst yet, in general, the counties the GOP have the most control over likely have the least influence impacting a state like GA. The blue counties are reporting, so red counties not reporting would hurt.

 

[starwater]

Jimmy are you saying that if a state doesn't cast their electoral votes - then it doesn't count and a smaller number of electoral votes are required to win?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Jimmy are you saying that if a state doesn't cast their electoral votes - then it doesn't count and a smaller number of electoral votes are required to win?

Correct.