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Australian Federal Election 2019

bilby

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On May 18th, Australia goes to the polls to elect a new federal government. The entire 151 seat House of Representatives, and 40 of the 72 Senate seats are up for grabs.

Currently no party has a majority in the Reps, with the government of Scott Morrison's Liberal/National coalition in power thanks to support from a variety of minor party and independent MPs.

The polls suggest a narrow win for the current opposition Labor party, led by Bill Shorten. However this lead seems to be narrowing, and it's quite possible that neither major party will be able to form government without support from independents or minor parties.

Likewise, in the Senate, it's unlikely that either major party will command a majority, so the minor parties will hold the balance of power.
 

Derec

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As long as the new PM still believes in turning back the fakefugee boats ...
 
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bilby

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I love the Senate races, because the single transferable vote system means that occasionally a candidate with very little personal support will get elected via preference flows. So it's a bit of a lottery for the sixth spot, which tends to bring out the nutters and chancers. Labor and the LNP will likely pick up five seats between them, and most likely the sixth will go to the Greens - but this is far from a certainty.

This is my guide to QLD Senate parties, listed in the order they appear on Wikipedia, not the order on the ballot paper. Voters must choose at least six parties/groups, or at least twelve individual candidates. Six candidates will be elected, of the 83 who are standing.

The first column shows the number of candidates standing for each group; The second identifies my personal 'red flags' for each group:
M - Monomaniacs lacking policies on areas other than their specific focus
F - Fascists
P - Personality cultists, aligned behind a narcisistic leader
R - Religious nutters


6 Labor - Main opposition party. Centre left. Current leader is former trade union boss.

6 Liberal National Party - Current government. Centre right, austerity/neoliberal economics, anti-immigrant. Current leader is a religious nutter.

6 Greens - Eco lefties, strongly oppose nuclear power, even though they claim to care about climate change.

5 FP Conservative National - Fraser Anning's mob, too fascist for One Nation.

2 FP One Nation - Pauline Hanson's fascist cunts.

3 M Better Families - Men's Rights activists, sad sack monomaniacs fighting a non-existent problem.

3 P Katter's Australian Party - Right wing personality cultists, too rural focused even for the National Party, wearers of large hats.

2 Liberal Democrats - Libertarians, oppose social welfare and the very existence of government, support nuclear power in Australia but that's their only non-insane policy.

2 FR Rise Up Australia - fascist religious nutters

2 M Shooters Fishers and Farmers - Gun nuts.

2 MP Group R - Hetty Johnston on her usual one woman campaign to elect Hetty Johnston to something, anything. Appears to have no other objective or policies - usually campaigns on a 'think of the children' platform. This time she has a friend, though there's practically zero chance of her second list member getting a seat. They apparently couldn't agree on a name for their 'party'.

3 FPR Conservatives - Cory Bernardi's mob. Left the LNP because they weren't racist enough, nor sufficiently religious.

2 MFR Love Australia or Leave - Crazy fascists trying to out fascist the other fascists.

3 M Independents for Climate Action Now - Eco nutters, strongly oppose nuclear power, even though they claim to care about climate change. The Greens for people who dislike socialism.

2 MF Sustainable Australia - Population control nutters. Fascists with a left-wing twist, the anti-immigration party you choose if you are pretending not to be a racist.

2 M Involuntary Medication Objectors - Anti-vaccination loons team up with anti-fluoride loons to maximise lunacy and minimise life expectancy.

3 FP United Australia Party - Clive Palmer's personality cult. Clive wants to be Donald Trump, but lacks the intelligence, charisma and subtlety.

3 M Animal Justice - Vegan activists.

2 FPR Group X - Father/Daughter team of religious right-wing narcissists.

2 M Climate Action! Immigration Action! Accountable Politicians! - Direct democracy advocates. Have no policies at all other than to have referenda online on every issue. Very fond of exclamation marks!

2 Pirate Party - Civil liberty activists, opposed to copyright abuses by large corporations, in favour of media piracy/liberalization. Despite the name, they have a broad left/secularist platform, and are not apparently crazy.

2 MP Great Australian Party - Rod Cullerton's mob. Batshit crazy anti-income tax, 'sovereign citizen' types who constantly bring cases to courts that do not have jurisdiction, and then cry foul when they don't win.

2 Australian Workers Party - Centre left, anti-neoliberalists. Want to configure the economy for full employment, and subscribe to Modern Monetary Theory.

2 M HEMP - Marijuana legalisation monomaniacs. Probably left/green, but no clear policies other than legalising weed.

2 R Democratic Labor Party - Centre-right Christians, anti-abortion, anti homosexual. Not labor, nor particularly democratic.

2 F Citizens Electoral Council - National Socialists and crazy conspiracy theorists. Would feel at home in the NSDAP of the early 1930s.

Ungrouped:

M Mental Health Party - only one candidate (Paul Stevenson), so listed with the 'Ungrouped'. Advocates for better psychiatric care - essentially a patient advocacy group turned political party.

M Debby Lo-Dean - Small business advocate

Gary Sharpe - Mystery candidate, insufficient online presence to assess.

Paul Larcombe - Crowdfunded independent. Policies seem well intentioned but a bit lacking in specifics. Pro-renewable enrgy, strong advocate for the disabled.

Jane Hasler - Sociologist, mental health nurse. Claims to stand for social justice, but no policy specifics are readily available online.

John Woodward - Mystery candidate, insufficient online presence to assess.

Nicholas McArthur-Williams - Mystery candidate, insufficient online presence to assess. May be vegan activist?

Hassan Ghulam - Mystery candidate, insufficient online presence to assess.

M Wayne Wharton - Aboriginal rights activist

M Amanda Murphy - Eco-warrior. Cares about the environment, doesn't appear to have any other policies.


With eight fascist parties on the ballot, I am expecting to see them perform poorly. In principle, a person can vote for all of them and have their vote transfer to whichever is closest to making a quota; But in practice, most of their supporters have trouble counting above five while holding a pencil in the other hand.
 

Patooka

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After the purge that occurred because of the dual citizenship debacle, you would have thought there might be a more vigorous vetting process/background check for the candidates. Apparently not:

First up, in case you've been hiding from election news all week (many wouldn't blame you), here's a quick recap of what you've missed. It's been a bad week for candidates with skeletons in their social media closets.

Labor Senate candidate in the NT, Wayne Kurnorth, was disendorsed by the party on Monday after anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and anti-Islamic posts came to light.

Liberal candidate for the Victorian seat of Isaacs, Jeremy Hearn, was dumped on Wednseday for writing that Australian Muslims are plotting to overthrow the Government and install sharia law.

Liberal candidate for the Victorian seat of Wills, Peter Killin, also went on Wednesday after it was revealed that he had encouraged conservative Christians to "infiltrate" the Liberal Party to stop gay people from being elected to office and party positions.

Liberal candidate for the Tasmanian seat of Lyons, Jessica Whelan resigned today after screenshots emerged that appear to show comments made on Facebook spouting anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant views

Labor candidate for the seat of Melbourne, Luke Creasey, also withdrew today after social media posts emerged that showed him engaging in inappropriate jokes about rape, lesbians and Catholics.

And they weren't the only ones. One Nation's Steve Dickson was also dumped by party leader Pauline Hanson on Tuesday over strip club videos, while candidates from Katter's Australia Party and the United Australia Party also had their past posts come back to bite them.

What's really depressing is Clive Palmer's Clive Palmer's United Australia Party (lead by Clive Palmer), is actually being taken seriously by some.

Fuckit, I'm still looking forward to my sausage sanga at my nearest Primary School.
 

bilby

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After the purge that occurred because of the dual citizenship debacle, you would have thought there might be a more vigorous vetting process/background check for the candidates. Apparently not:

First up, in case you've been hiding from election news all week (many wouldn't blame you), here's a quick recap of what you've missed. It's been a bad week for candidates with skeletons in their social media closets.

Labor Senate candidate in the NT, Wayne Kurnorth, was disendorsed by the party on Monday after anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and anti-Islamic posts came to light.

Liberal candidate for the Victorian seat of Isaacs, Jeremy Hearn, was dumped on Wednseday for writing that Australian Muslims are plotting to overthrow the Government and install sharia law.

Liberal candidate for the Victorian seat of Wills, Peter Killin, also went on Wednesday after it was revealed that he had encouraged conservative Christians to "infiltrate" the Liberal Party to stop gay people from being elected to office and party positions.

Liberal candidate for the Tasmanian seat of Lyons, Jessica Whelan resigned today after screenshots emerged that appear to show comments made on Facebook spouting anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant views

Labor candidate for the seat of Melbourne, Luke Creasey, also withdrew today after social media posts emerged that showed him engaging in inappropriate jokes about rape, lesbians and Catholics.

And they weren't the only ones. One Nation's Steve Dickson was also dumped by party leader Pauline Hanson on Tuesday over strip club videos, while candidates from Katter's Australia Party and the United Australia Party also had their past posts come back to bite them.

What's really depressing is Clive Palmer's Clive Palmer's United Australia Party (lead by Clive Palmer), is actually being taken seriously by some.

Fuckit, I'm still looking forward to my sausage sanga at my nearest Primary School.

The democracy sausage is the true highlight of election day.
 

bilby

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Ignore what they say. Look at what they do.

Talk is cheap, and insults are cheaper still.

Picking who to vote for is unnecessary in a preferential system. Just pick who to vote against. Your least hated candidate might imagine that you like him; But that's his mistake.

Number the boxes from n to 1 (where n is the number of candidates), starting with you least favourite. Eliminate him, then give your n-1 preference to your next most despised dickhead. Then keep going until you run out of vitriol at vote number 1. You don't have to like that candidate - you just have to hate him less than you hate all the others.
 

Patooka

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That's probably the only thing to do, apart from abstaining altogether in disgust.

Personally, I think that if you abstain, you have forfeited the right to bitch about how the country is run. And if you are going to wait for the ideal candidate who mirrors your beliefs perfectly, you might as well be a libertarian. And just as relevant.

Keep in mind it can always be worse. Last year Peter Dutton had a non-zero chance of being our PM.
 

bilby

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That's probably the only thing to do, apart from abstaining altogether in disgust.

Personally, I think that if you abstain, you have forfeited the right to bitch about how the country is run. And if you are going to wait for the ideal candidate who mirrors your beliefs perfectly, you might as well be a libertarian. And just as relevant.

Keep in mind it can always be worse. Last year Peter Dutton had a non-zero chance of being our PM.

Yup. The job of each voter is to keep out their least preferred candidate. If you want to vote for someone who represents your exact position on everything, your only choice is to run for office yourself - which frankly I wish more smart people (and fewer fascist nutters) would do.

IMO far too few people run for office who are not professional politicians, lawyers, or monomaniacal egotists (or frequently all three at once).
 

DBT

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That's probably the only thing to do, apart from abstaining altogether in disgust.

Personally, I think that if you abstain, you have forfeited the right to bitch about how the country is run. And if you are going to wait for the ideal candidate who mirrors your beliefs perfectly, you might as well be a libertarian. And just as relevant.

Keep in mind it can always be worse. Last year Peter Dutton had a non-zero chance of being our PM.

I agree with your comment about abstaining, yet many do abstain. As for finding someone who 'mirrors one's belief's'...it'd be nice to see someone who is somewhere in the ballpark, someone who does not make frivolous promises just to get elected.
 

Angry Floof

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I hope that Pirate party gets some unprecedented levels of grass roots support, and I hope you don't end up with a Trump type and then later everyone says, "Dang. We shoulda put more support behind those Pirates. :("
 

Angry Floof

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I hope that Pirate party gets some unprecedented levels of grass roots support, and I hope you don't end up with a Trump type and then later everyone says, "Dang. We shoulda put more support behind those Pirates. :("

Don't worry. No Australian will ever say 'Dang'.

Seriously.

:rotfl: Ok, then, crikey, or whatever. :p
 

Patooka

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I hope that Pirate party gets some unprecedented levels of grass roots support, and I hope you don't end up with a Trump type and then later everyone says, "Dang. We shoulda put more support behind those Pirates. :("

Don't worry. No Australian will ever say 'Dang'.

Seriously.

:rotfl: Ok, then, crikey, or whatever. :p

No one says crikey either. Or shrimp. The closest equivalent would be, "Fuck, I shoulda fucking supported them Pirate cunts hey?"

It's blunt, I'll admit. But pretty unambiguous. ;)
 

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No one says crikey either. Or shrimp.
You really do need to get out more.

- - - Updated - - -

Who to vote for when you can't stand any of them, that is the question.

Sometimes it comes down to whom do you dislike the least or who will cause the least trouble.

How is that to be determined? Especially when they all make promises to get elected that they either have no intention of keeping or simply cannot deliver.
I find a dart board is as reliable as any other method.
 

Patooka

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Holy shit! I agree with former Liberal Leader Alexander Downer

Mr Downer, who was the high commissioner to the UK from 2014 to 2018, said he was saddened to see Australia's political discourse become so nasty, particularly on social media.

He described Twitter as a "garbage tip of abuse".

"It's just absolutely toxic. And I think that's very sad. We're not talking about the politicians on Twitter, we're talking about … political activists," Mr Downer said.
 

Patooka

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Scott Morrison is still Prime Minister. Let's see if he can be the first PM to do a full term through to completion in over a decade. Tony Abbott is gone; don't let the door hit your arse on the way out. Fraser Anning was told to fuck the fuck off, but Jaquie Lambie is back in. The biggest disappointment for me from last night is that Peter Dutton keeps his seat. Not surprising in hindsight, but I was really suckered in by op-ed posts surrounding this election. And considering the amount of Liberal women who resigned their positions, it will be interesting to see if Tanya Plibersek has a go being leader of Labour.

Best part of the night- it looks like no one is getting a clear majority in the House and Senate. And at least the Clive Palmer ads are done, I felt stupider every time I saw one of those fucking things.
 

bilby

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Yeah, it's going to be difficult for the LNP to get much done - either they'll be a minority government, so they're going to need cross bench support for pretty much everything, or at worst they will have a one or two seat majority, and be vulnerable to by-elections or defections.

I'm glad to see that Abbott is gone - he was my local member when I lived in Sydney, and so I hated him before most Australians knew who he even was.

IMG_4122.JPG

Really, the result of the election is that not much has changed. Which is a shame - but it could have been a lot worse.

It's too early to be sure, but it looks like Clive Palmer isn't going to win his Senate seat here in QLD. So that's another bright spot.

Fraser Anning got almost no votes at the booth I was counting (I issued and counted for the AEC yesterday). One person did vote 1 Anning's CNP, 2 Green - which is just fucking weird. The paper was formal, and not an obvious donkey vote, so I shudder to think what the inside of their head must be like.

I can only hope that they made a mistake. Or it was the CNP candidate's rather embarrassed mum.
 

Patooka

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I know, I know; most of my posts are random clips of John Oliver. I'm definitely worse than some posters with their hobby horses, but fuckit I'm owning it. A tribute to Tony Abbott:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3IaKVmkXuk[/youtube]

I'm glad to see that Abbott is gone - he was my local member when I lived in Sydney, and so I hated him before most Australians knew who he even was.

I bumped into him at a function just after Brendan Nelson got the flick in 2007. Man, I've never met someone which such an infantile sense of entitlement - even then he believed he deserves to be PM because of, well, reasons. A very, very different person when he thinks there are no cameras around.
 

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The opinion polls certainly fooled me. That and with Bob dying I assumed would just push Laour over.

Trump, Brexit, and Election 2019 have cast a long shadow over the state of opinion polling at the moment.

The first few paragraphs of this article talk about some of the methodological problems that are arising in opinion polling. Interesting stuff (if you're a statistics nerd).
 

bilby

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The opinion polls certainly fooled me. That and with Bob dying I assumed would just push Laour over.

Trump, Brexit, and Election 2019 have cast a long shadow over the state of opinion polling at the moment.

The first few paragraphs of this article talk about some of the methodological problems that are arising in opinion polling. Interesting stuff (if you're a statistics nerd).

I am about to read it, but had to come back here to say that if you are planning to write an article about why the polls were ALWAYS wrong, it would be more impressive amd impactful if you wrote it two days BEFORE the ballot, rather than two days after.

Anyone can do 20-20 hindsight.
 
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