Cause of the violent crime spike recently

[Lumpenproletariat]

According to this PBS video



there was an increase in the crime rate from Jan. - March this year, but then there was an unusual decrease for April-May, which is attributed to the Pandemic lockdown. But since then there has been a sudden upward spike in violent crime.

There's a suggestion that the Pandemic has caused it, with the increased unemployment from the lockdown.

The preacher in the above video seems to say that the increase in crime is due to poverty, unemployment, and increased police shootings of innocent citizens. While the police advocate blames the higher crime spike on lack of funding to cops.

Here are 2 sites which suggest that the Pandemic was causing a DEcrease in crime, because of fewer people out on the streets:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/us/coronavirus-crime.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/16/us/new-york-city-crime/index.html


And the following book gives one figure showing that in the epidemic of 1918 there was a DECREASE in the crime rate (in Chicago) (scroll down to Oct. 31):

https://books.google.com./books?id=...B#v=onepage&q=1918 flu and crime rate&f=false

So, what does the evidence show as the cause of the violent crime spike in June (and late May)?

The George Floyd killing happened on May 25, followed by protests and riots.

Doesn't it seem obvious that this event sparked something which led to the sudden crime rate increase? Earlier in the year (Jan. - March) there was a higher crime rate, but then a decrease, as a result of the lockdown. That decrease was suddenly disrupted by the Floyd killing and whatever followed.

There have been many police killings of innocent citizens before which did not lead to a sudden spike in the violent crime rate. So it's not the killing of an innocent citizen which caused the spike in crime. What's different this time?

Also, the spike in crime has not been nationwide. It appears to be mainly in large cities, especially where there were violent protests. There are many poor regions of the country which have not had any such spike in crime.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You have a lot of criminals whose ability to commit crime was reduce by the lockdown. Is it any surprise there's a rebound as it becomes more possible to commit crime again?

 

[repoman]

Power vacuum, like Mexican cartels.

Hope we don't get chainsaw massacres of women here anytime soon.

 

[Elixir]

You have a lot of criminals whose ability to commit crime was reduce by the lockdown. Is it any surprise there's a rebound as it becomes more possible to commit crime again?

Yeah, robbers have bills too, and they were starting to pile up!

Short term variations can be attributed to specific factors, but we will be in a high-crime society as long as there is a feudal-system level of wealth gap, with less than 1% of the population "owning" most of the resources.

 

[Playball40]

None of the above.

 

[Politesse]

A third of Americans missed their July rent payment. Substantial portions of the American public are either recently homeless or about to become homeless.

An increase in violent crime is likely inevitable as desperation mounts.

A general feeling of uncontrolled anarchy probably isn't helping. I don't personally blame the protesters for this state of affairs, but I'm sure the protests are contributing to this feeling of general lawlessness.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You have a lot of criminals whose ability to commit crime was reduce by the lockdown. Is it any surprise there's a rebound as it becomes more possible to commit crime again?

Yeah, robbers have bills too, and they were starting to pile up!

Short term variations can be attributed to specific factors, but we will be in a high-crime society as long as there is a feudal-system level of wealth gap, with less than 1% of the population "owning" most of the resources.

It's not so much poverty that causes it but inner city life.

 

[Mumbles]

A critical element is missing here: It's summer. Crime increases this time of year, granted generally by about 11-12%. And yes, things are especially bad this summer, with a massive spike in unemployment, and an invisible (to the naked eye) killer around to drive people nuts. I'll note that we've seen the *police* in many cities riot in response to protests - while this is rarely counted in crime statistics, I'd certainly say that beating people with batons, slashing their tires, shooting bullets of any sort or flaming canisters of noxious gas, and so forth are crimes, often violent, by any sensible measure.