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Climate Change(d)?

skepticalbip

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You can make a 'bucket' to fit any bore, out of a piece of pipe of smaller diameter, with a flap valve cap on the bottom and a rope secured to the top. Drop it down, wait for it to sink, then haul it up. Even a small bore pipe holds lots of water if it's long enough.

Of course you can, given access to parts. You're assuming access that likely doesn't exist.
You do know that hardware stores and their stock don't cease to exist if their staff die, right?

The demand for materials will far exceed the supply. Same problem as with the food in the groceries.

Most people live within a short distance of a permanent above ground stream or river, but even if a bore is your only option, it doesn't require much technology to rig up a manual lifring system.

I understand that a gallon is around four and a half litres, but have no clue how far a ' is; This is the Internet, not America.

Regardless, a rope, cable, wire or similar of arbitrary length is easy to scavenge. Ordinary household electrical cable is plenty strong enough for the job, and ubiquitous.

A ' is a foot. Thus, about 300m. I don't have anything around long enough.
But the local hardware store does; And the staff are dead, so there's a 100% off final closing down sale in progress.

And why do you assume they're all dead?

And making fire to boil water is a technology the pre-dates the wheel. It certainly pre-dates the widespread supply of electricity and gas.

Making a fire with what? What's the fuel?
Gee, I don't know. It's not like fuel grows on trees.

Oh, wait...

Trees? Not many of those around here and they'll be green wood, miserable fuel.
Or you could go to Home Depot or Lowe's and pick up a load of 2x4s for firewood while you are getting the rope or cord for your well bucket.
 

DBT

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Given it remains largely business as usual, a climate and economic crisis appears inevitable, the only question being: how bad is it going to get?
 

bilby

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You can make a 'bucket' to fit any bore, out of a piece of pipe of smaller diameter, with a flap valve cap on the bottom and a rope secured to the top. Drop it down, wait for it to sink, then haul it up. Even a small bore pipe holds lots of water if it's long enough.

Of course you can, given access to parts. You're assuming access that likely doesn't exist.
You do know that hardware stores and their stock don't cease to exist if their staff die, right?

The demand for materials will far exceed the supply. Same problem as with the food in the groceries.
Only if almost nobody has died during this "extinction event"
Most people live within a short distance of a permanent above ground stream or river, but even if a bore is your only option, it doesn't require much technology to rig up a manual lifring system.

I understand that a gallon is around four and a half litres, but have no clue how far a ' is; This is the Internet, not America.

Regardless, a rope, cable, wire or similar of arbitrary length is easy to scavenge. Ordinary household electrical cable is plenty strong enough for the job, and ubiquitous.

A ' is a foot. Thus, about 300m. I don't have anything around long enough.
But the local hardware store does; And the staff are dead, so there's a 100% off final closing down sale in progress.

And why do you assume they're all dead?
That's a defining feature of an extinction event. If there's lots of people still alive, extinction isn't on the cards, is it?
And making fire to boil water is a technology the pre-dates the wheel. It certainly pre-dates the widespread supply of electricity and gas.

Making a fire with what? What's the fuel?
Gee, I don't know. It's not like fuel grows on trees.

Oh, wait...

Trees? Not many of those around here and they'll be green wood, miserable fuel.
Oh, well, if you live in a place where trees are scarce, they must be scarce everywhere.

:rolleyes:
 

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And why do you assume they're all dead?
That's a defining feature of an extinction event. If there's lots of people still alive, extinction isn't on the cards, is it?
What you are missing is that most of the deaths will be due to the destruction, not the event itself.

A hell of a lot of people would die from a Carrington event even though it's unlikely to kill anyone directly.
 

bilby

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And why do you assume they're all dead?
That's a defining feature of an extinction event. If there's lots of people still alive, extinction isn't on the cards, is it?
What you are missing is that most of the deaths will be due to the destruction, not the event itself.

A hell of a lot of people would die from a Carrington event even though it's unlikely to kill anyone directly.
The question wasn't "might lots of people die".

It was "might human beings go extinct".

And the answer is "not likely".

Humans are like cockroaches; They are everywhere, and while it's easy to kill a lot of them, it's damn near impossible to kill them all.
 

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TSwizzle said:
Of course it 's a cult. These climate doomsayers are the exact same as the rapture fanatics that predict the end of the world. And just as accurate.
Whether " The whole climate crisis/emergency/apocalypse is a religion, a rapture like cult. " and whether some, or even most or all climate change activists hold their beliefs on faith, as a religion, are very different matters.
Again, it is a crisis, as it is likely to have disastrous consequences for tens millions of people: take a look at the link provided by B20, for example.

Most climate change activists, in my experience, do believe in a faith-based manner. But those are again very different matters.

TSwizzle said:
The link to a CNN report on a study that "suggests" 500,000+ people will die due to climate change? Behave yourselves.
Due to climate-change related food shortages alone. And that's not counting all the suffering involved.

That's nowhere near extinction level (how many people die per year due to infectious diseases? And extinction is nowhere near.). But it's still pretty bad.

TSwizzle said:
A rapture like cult.
Deniers of the problem also behave in a religious-like manner, for the most part.
 

steve_bank

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It wasn't the Mt St Helens eruption that did damage, it was the ash, pyroclastic flow, and expanding hot gases.
 

steve_bank

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Watched a NOVA show on melting tundra/perma frost.

In Siberia thee are craters from exploding methane gas.



In Alaska there is a shallow lake that eveoped a 50 foot deep hole throuh which rons of metane escape per day. The funnels develop as permafrost melts providing a chimney.

There is a tunnel in the permafrost where you can see mastadon and other bones sticking out. The organic material never rotted and decomposed and is still green. As it melts the carbon goes back to the atmospher. It is not accounted for in the climate models.

The arctic indigenous people are completely screwed right now.

It was said in the show the frezing took thousands of years. The thawing is not going to be reversed. While we need to keep going green, I doubt it is going to soften long term effects.
 

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The thawing is not going to be reversed. While we need to keep going green, I doubt it is going to soften long term effects.
Certainly true, but much in the way that the inevitability of wildfires does not justify poor campfire protocol, we need to learn to live with ans within the realities of our planet, one of which atmospheric composition is important to our survival.
 

Swammerdami

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Yes. Even if the choice is between, say, a 2.2° temperature rise and a 2.15° rise, the 2.15° rise is preferable.
 

steve_bank

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Watched a NOVA show on the Mayan civilization. Aerial LIDAR that looks through forest canopy showed a complex network of city states connects by roads. There were what we cal suburbs. Sub communities with houses and shops. Trade between cities. Houses had plaster floors. Archeology indicates that material wealth was spread around not just limited to the leaders. In short a high civilization. There were wars but generally a peaceful culture.

At the peak unstable weather and droughts hit. They adapted, in part by changing agriculture. They went from a doiverse nutricious diet to a corn based diet. It worked fpr a while until large scale drought. Trade and the economy rapidly failed. The evidence indicates a rapid crash. Communities were abandoned. Dead bodies and weapons were found left behind indicating a breakdown in order.

California and the Southwest are hit by drought. The pandemic shows how fragile or supply chain is.


CNN)As the American West continues into its 22nd year of a parching megadrought, officials at the federal government's top water resource management agency are trying to plan for an uncertain and unprecedented time for the nation's largest reservoirs.
"When [the system] was built 100 years ago, you could look outside your window if you're in Colorado and see snow, and know that that's your reservoir for the spring," Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton told CNN in an exclusive interview. "It's not like that anymore. What you're seeing there is just a completely different way in which the system is managed."
 

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https://www.chicagotribune.com/weat...-rwpa3fwtc5aydjle42utxfu3ge-photogallery.html

Description: The latest United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is yet another reminder of the dire effects of climate change. While climate projections often look to the future when discussing the worst impacts of climate change, we are in fact already experiencing its effects across the United States. To better understand how climate change is impacting the country, Stacker compiled a list of the impacts of climate change in every state, using local and national news stories, government reports, and scientific journal articles. Visit thestacker.com for similar lists and stories.
(Stephanie Parker, Stacker.com)
 

steve_bank

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The latest estimate I hear is sea rise by about 12 inches in 30 years. That is catastrophic.
 

skepticalbip

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The latest estimate I hear is sea rise by about 12 inches in 30 years. That is catastrophic.
I saw something that indicated that the speed of the Gulf Stream (slowing) can impact sea level significantly as well.
That article contains a hell of a lot of hand waving. If the Gulf Stream halts then warm equatorial water would stop being transported to the arctic regions. The northern U.S., Canada, Europe, and the Arctic would likely experience cooling and a return to massive glaciation. The increase in glaciation would tie up more water causing sea levels to drip... That is the hand waving of those 'scientists' who have been predicting that global warming would bring on the next ice age.

ETA:
But then most articles written about climate are by people who have no education or training in the field. Such articles are written to get clicks with "OMG, we're all gonna die" predictions. The author of this piece holds a degree in creative writing, not climatology.
 
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Jimmy Higgins

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The latest estimate I hear is sea rise by about 12 inches in 30 years. That is catastrophic.
I saw something that indicated that the speed of the Gulf Stream (slowing) can impact sea level significantly as well.
That article contains a hell of a lot of hand waving. If the Gulf Stream halts then warm equatorial water would stop being transported to the arctic regions. The northern U.S., Canada, Europe, and the Arctic would likely experience cooling and a return to massive glaciation. The increase in glaciation would tie up more water causing sea levels to drip... That is the hand waving of those 'scientists' who have been predicting that global warming would bring on the next ice age.

ETA:
But then most articles written about climate are by people who have no education or training in the field. Such articles are written to get clicks with "OMG, we're all gonna die" predictions. The author of this piece holds a degree in creative writing, not climatology.
We are already seeing the increase on the Eastern Coast of the US, which is believed to be linked to the slowing of the Gulf Stream. As in, this is well on its way of happening. Coastal areas notice this a lot more due to storm water drainage, which gets harder because they have virtually no elevation drops to help drain stormwater.
 

steve_bank

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It is also the North Atlantic currents off of Europe. It moderates European climate and churns nutrients for marine life. It begins at the southern pole. Cold water sinks and travels along the sea floor. If the ice melts too much no currents.

It is not rocket science. Rate of ice melt adding fresh water to the oceans.

There have been tests with deep ocean turbines that generate electricity from the currents.
 

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The latest estimate I hear is sea rise by about 12 inches in 30 years. That is catastrophic.
I saw something that indicated that the speed of the Gulf Stream (slowing) can impact sea level significantly as well.

I saw this in the article you posted...https://www.livescience.com/ticks-carry-deadly-powassan-virus

"A site in Pennsylvania recently recorded the highest-ever concentration of ticks carrying a variant of potentially fatal Powassan virus called deer-tick virus (DTV). This rare virus has the potential to cause deadly infections with lasting neurological effects, and officials fear it and other serious tick-borne illnesses may become more common in the future."
 

steve_bank

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Here in Washington water conservation projects are beginning in Eastern Wa in anticipation of reduced runoff from snow packs.

Dirt irrigation canals are being lined with plastic to reduce losses. Lake levels will be raised. New reservoirs to be built.

Driving through Eastern Wa on the interstate is like driving through parts of the mid west, agriculture as far as yu can see. Green in summer.

fThe estimate is 80% loss od snow pack in 30 years.

Agriculture
Drinking Water
Fish Habitat

Salmon spawning is water temperate dependent.

Back in the 90s I listened to a UW report on global warming of lakes. Here in Seattle's Lake Washington salmon runs are aligned with temperature. When the lake reaches a certain temperature there is an algae bloom. Small organisms feed on the algae. small fish eat the organisms. When salmon arrive there is plenty of the fish salmon feed on.

Rising lake temperature makes the bloom occur earlier and the salmon arrive past the peak of its food supply.
 

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Oh noes!!!!1111!!!11!!

Climate breakdown is accelerating rapidly, many of the impacts will be more severe than predicted and there is only a narrow chance left of avoiding its worst ravages, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said. Even at current levels, human actions in heating the climate are causing dangerous and widespread disruption, threatening devastation to swathes of the natural world and rendering many areas unliveable, according to the landmark report published on Monday. “The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, a co-chair of working group 2 of the IPCC. “Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.”

Teh Gruaniad

A rapture like cult.
 

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Oh noes!!!!1111!!!11!!

Climate breakdown is accelerating rapidly, many of the impacts will be more severe than predicted and there is only a narrow chance left of avoiding its worst ravages, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said. Even at current levels, human actions in heating the climate are causing dangerous and widespread disruption, threatening devastation to swathes of the natural world and rendering many areas unliveable, according to the landmark report published on Monday. “The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, a co-chair of working group 2 of the IPCC. “Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.”

Teh Gruaniad

A rapture like cult.

No, you're presenting the cult-think. You aren't even trying to rebut it, just declaring it wrong.

Look at the death tolls that keep getting racked up by heat waves.
 

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NOAA is predicting more drought for the west this spring and summer.
 

TSwizzle

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*sigh* The cultists are getting increasingly more violent in forcing non believers into compliance;

The activists who took “climate action” against sports utility vehicles by flattening their tyres in the last two weeks have been receiving solidarity and calls for information from around the world. Tyre Extinguishers provides instructions on how to deflate SUV tyres, offers guidance on who to target and collates reports of actions across the country. Acting autonomously and, usually, under the cover of darkness, the activists have used lentils to deflate tyres by placing one inside the tyre valve, holding it open and slowly bleeding air until the tyre is flat. The group calculates they’ve deflated the tyres on at least a thousand vehicles in two weeks.

Teh Gruaniad

Of course, Teh Gruaniad covertly approves of this.

And recently some of unhinged lunatics took to the field of English Premier League soccer games and tried to handcuff themselves to the goal posts.

It really is a rapture like-cult.
 

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The word violent was used and presumed they knifed the tires. Nope, they deflated them. People shouldn’t do this but this is a rather inconvenient cult instead of a violent one.
 

TSwizzle

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If someone is driving along the road at speed and the compromised tire(s) causes the driver to lose control of the vehicle and crash, I consider this (deflating tires) to be an act of violence. These cultists could very well get people killed. Letting air out the tires is not a harmless prank, it’s dangerous.
 

steve_bank

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If someone is driving along the road at speed and the compromised tire(s) causes the driver to lose control of the vehicle and crash, I consider this (deflating tires) to be an act of violence. These cultists could very well get people killed. Letting air out the tires is not a harmless prank, it’s dangerous.
Try hugging a tree, it will make you feel better.
 

steve_bank

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In the news shell fish are declining due to increasing ocean PH.

A husband and wife having dinner on the Titanic.

Dear did you fell that bump? No hone, they say the Titanic is unsinkable. I think I'll have another martini.
 

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If someone is driving along the road at speed and the compromised tire(s) causes the driver to lose control of the vehicle and crash, I consider this (deflating tires) to be an act of violence. These cultists could very well get people killed. Letting air out the tires is not a harmless prank, it’s dangerous.
If someone is too stupid to notice that they have one or more flat tyres before they reach a high speed, they are probably doing a service to the gene pool by killing themselves.

Your attempt to characterise deflation of tyres as an act of violence is a serious stretch. I hope you didn't strain anything.
 

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If someone is driving along the road at speed and the compromised tire(s) causes the driver to lose control of the vehicle and crash, I consider this (deflating tires) to be an act of violence. These cultists could very well get people killed. Letting air out the tires is not a harmless prank, it’s dangerous.
If someone is too stupid to notice that they have one or more flat tyres before they reach a high speed, they are probably doing a service to the gene pool by killing themselves.

Your attempt to characterise deflation of tyres as an act of violence is a serious stretch. I hope you didn't strain anything.
Aside from credulity, of course.
 

TSwizzle

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It looks like we have only one more last chance to save the planet again;

The world can still hope to stave off the worst ravages of climate breakdown but only through a “now or never” dash to a low-carbon economy and society, scientists have said in what is in effect a final warning for governments on the climate. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025, and can be nearly halved this decade, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to give the world a chance of limiting future heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. But the chances were narrow and the world was failing to make the changes needed, the body of the world’s leading climate scientists warned. Temperatures will soar to more than 3C, with catastrophic consequences, unless policies and actions are urgently strengthened. Jim Skea, a professor at Imperial College London and co-chair of the working group behind the report, said: “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.” IPCC reports take about seven years to compile, making this potentially the last warning before the world is set irrevocably on a path to climate breakdown.

Teh Gruaniad

A rapture like cult.
 

steve_bank

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I do not think so. Fossil fuels can not be just stopped, it we be economically disastrous.
 

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The cultists are at it again;

Petrol stations have been forced to close after running out of fuel as Just Stop Oil eco-zealots glue themselves to roads and block delivery tankers from leaving ports. Queues of cars and vans have been reported at garages across the country as the disruption begins to cripple supply. Delivery of diesel appears to have been hampered the most, while several of the ports most affected are in Essex where protestors have been attaching themselves to fuel tankers with bike locks. A spokesperson for the environmental activists claimed they had disrupted 54 per cent of fuel supply.

Daily Mail

An affordable hobby for the mature, well to do English middle classes.
 

steve_bank

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They say there are Russian operatives on the net sowing discord, divisions, and fake news. That is ab addition to those who do it for the hell of it, for fun. Attention seekers.

No matter how you spin it climate change is upon us. No more so than on the west coast and the south west. Droughts amplified by ring temperatures affecting crops. The problem is extending down into Mexico which supplies about 60% of our produce.
 

TSwizzle

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They say there are Russian operatives on the net sowing discord, divisions, and fake news. That is ab addition to those who do it for the hell of it, for fun. Attention seekers.

They are religious extremists.

TNo matter how you spin it climate change is upon us.

Climate is not stable, never has been, it has natural variability. Why you think otherwise is baffling.

No more so than on the west coast and the south west. Droughts amplified by ring temperatures affecting crops. The problem is extending down into Mexico which supplies about 60% of our produce.

This is just bollocks.
 

steve_bank

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A twizzle fizzle.

I live in the PNW. That climate is changing is observable. People who been here a long time see it. I noticed it as did oters well before climate chnge was in the news.

Snow packs are dwon that reduce spring melts that feed agriculture and reservoirs. Glaciers are dispersing in the Cacade mountains. Rivers are down across the country.

The Columbia River provides water for Washington and Oregon agriculture and is drawing down.

Looming crop failures are being reported in the south west. Cattle ranches have been affected. Fire seaons are getting longer every year and fires worse.

Miami is already having coastal fair weather flooding problems.

I had my fun an I will jot be around to see the full effects. If you are young today I would be very worried about food and water supplies in the future.

Give my regards to Tucker Carlson and FOX News.

It is like it is raining and you insist it isn't.
 

TSwizzle

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Oh no, the end is nigh! Whatever shall we do?!!!!111!!!!!!!!111111!

It really is a rapture like cult.
 

steve_bank

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A hallmark and characteristic of cult behavior is the endless repartitions of a slogan which has no basis in reality.

For example repeating 'A rapture like cult' until one enters into a state of rapture. Cult behavior eliminates the need to think through and understand an issue. All you have to do is repeat the mantra you hear someone else say.


As I said if you are young it is your future not mine.
 

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Let's go Brandon!
Climate is not stable, never has been, it has natural variability. Why you think otherwise is baffling.

This is just bollocks.
Brour brilfull brignorance is breathtaking!

One is left to guess what "natural variability" you refer to. The high temperatures during the Mesozoic? The advance and retreat of glaciers during the Pleistocene? That the Danube underwent "hundred-year floods" roughly once per century during Roman times? The fact that it's snowing now in Michigan?

Here are two temperature graphs. Point to where the natural variability touched you.

1046672692-7bcc6edcbdb9a12e560e9809f3f145f6dd36b6b303afe27d32babd366faabd3a-d


1600px-All_palaeotemps.png
 

TSwizzle

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A hallmark and characteristic of cult behavior is the endless repartitions of a slogan which has no basis in reality.

For example repeating 'A rapture like cult' until one enters into a state of rapture. Cult behavior eliminates the need to think through and understand an issue. All you have to do is repeat the mantra you hear someone else say.


As I said if you are young it is your future not mine.

I understand the issue just fine. I have a real problem with the crap about climate breakdown/collapse/emergency/crisis/last chance/only have nine years to save the planet or we’re all going to die !!!!111!!!!!112!!22111!!

It’s a lot of shite. It really is a rapture like cult. The end is nigh, end of times bullshit is what it is.
 

steve_bank

Diabetic retinopathy and poor eyesight. Typos ...
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Know natural variatins that affrect climate are not at play. Such as the sun's cycles and the Earth's orbital and rotational variations.

We know in bilcal times parts of Arabia were green. We know the Sahars in Africa has been periodically wet.

The only thing the rapid temperature rise correlates to is human industrialization starting in the late 19th century.
 

TSwizzle

Let's go Brandon!
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“Rapid temperature rise”?! Oh behave yourself. An imperceptible rise in temperature over 100 years or so. You’re as bad as the intelligent design creationists and flat earthers.
 

steve_bank

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Actually it is 'Don't piss on my back and tell me its raining'. An old American saying.
 

Loren Pechtel

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“Rapid temperature rise”?! Oh behave yourself. An imperceptible rise in temperature over 100 years or so. You’re as bad as the intelligent design creationists and flat earthers.

You don't realize the scale. 6 degrees between the ice age and now. High range IPCC estimate: 6 degrees. In other words, as much difference from now as the ice ages were. And that's not even counting the methane hydrates that are expected to be nasty but we don't have good enough estimates to include them in the predictions.
 

steve_bank

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“Rapid temperature rise”?! Oh behave yourself. An imperceptible rise in temperature over 100 years or so. You’re as bad as the intelligent design creationists and flat earthers.
To undertdstand that you have to know basic physcs and thermdynamics.

A 1 degree of temperature rise in the oceans means a big increase in thermal energy. Temperature diffences form a heat engine, and diffences drive hurricanes, ocean currents, and atmospheric currents. Atmospheric currents dtermine where droughts occur in conjunction with the Coriolis effect on the air.

An example. a 1 pound pices of iron is raised 1 degree above room temperature in a large room . It quickly goes back room temperature with little effect on the aur.

Raise a 1000 pound piece of iron 1 degree and it takes a long time to go back to ambient. The room gets warmer. Convection air currents form in te room.

Consider the atmosphere a room and the ocean a big piece of iron whose temperature is raised 1 degree. Temperature dribes currents in the ocean essentially the same way as with air currents.
 

TSwizzle

Let's go Brandon!
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Yes, the earth’s climate has always been subject to change, sometimes rapid changes at that. It fluctuates naturally. It’s not possible to stop it by putting in a few bike lanes and banning plastic straws. It’s just annoying.
 
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