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Climate Change Fanatics Confront Growing Evil - Climate Lukewarmers

maxparrish

Veteran Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2005
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Location
SF Bay Area
Basic Beliefs
Libertarian-Conservative, Agnostic.
Having spent more than 15 years as a climate luke-warmer (and regularly labeled a climate change denier) it is nice to see the small but growing number who agree - global warming is real but it's much ado about very little.

Matt Ridley offered his observations about the state of things in an article in the London Times a few days ago entitled “My Life as A Climate Lukewarmer.”

I am a climate lukewarmer. That means I think recent global warming is real, mostly man-made and will continue but I no longer think it is likely to be dangerous and I think its slow and erratic progress so far is what we should expect in the future. That last year was the warmest yet, in some data sets, but only by a smidgen more than 2005, is precisely in line with such lukewarm thinking.

This view annoys some sceptics who think all climate change is natural or imaginary, but it is even more infuriating to most publicly funded scientists and politicians, who insist climate change is a big risk. My middle-of-the-road position is considered not just wrong, but disgraceful, shameful, verging on scandalous. I am subjected to torrents of online abuse for holding it, very little of it from sceptics.

I was even kept off the shortlist for a part-time, unpaid public-sector appointment in a field unrelated to climate because of having this view, or so the headhunter thought. In the climate debate, paying obeisance to climate scaremongering is about as mandatory for a public appointment, or public funding, as being a Protestant was in 18th-century England.

Kind friends send me news almost weekly of whole blog posts devoted to nothing but analysing my intellectual and personal inadequacies, always in relation to my views on climate. Writing about climate change is a small part of my life but, to judge by some of the stuff that gets written about me, writing about me is a large part of the life of some of the more obsessive climate commentators. It’s all a bit strange...

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/01/when-climate-heretics-speak.php
 
Well, I think that what is considered extremism by many would under other circumstances be very rational.

Basically, if you could have a person be presented with well studied information about geology, and Milankovitch cycles and the climate of the earth over the past 20 million years and how CO2 and methane affect climate they would be very convinced about the facts and trends. The more scientifically literate and rational the person the more they will be convinced. By convinced I mean 95%+ sure, not a 100% faith which is a parody of what climate change proponents are.

You have geological records from during the Pliocene (~3 MYA) showing current CO2 levels and ~25 meters higher sea level. And you have a not just the correlation but causation of CO2 being a heat trapping gas.

If this were not so deadly serious I bet that you, maxparrish, would say "yeah, this increase of CO2 will warm up the planet and melt greenland and at least the West Antarctic ice sheet."

Because people on the "left" are dumb and extreme like in Sweden about gender issues (which I firmly contend) does not mean that global warming which is also pushed by the left will not happen.

You have to look dispassionately about this topic. It is truly immense and getting too close to unstoppable.

It is not a secular religion for me. It is a physical process that is actually fairly easy to understand at a rough approximation. Get the rough knowledge handled and don't go spouting off like a middle schooler on niggling details.
 
Well, I think that what is considered extremism by many would under other circumstances be very rational.

Basically, if you could have a person be presented with well studied information about geology, and Milankovitch cycles and the climate of the earth over the past 20 million years and how CO2 and methane affect climate they would be very convinced about the facts and trends. The more scientifically literate and rational the person the more they will be convinced. By convinced I mean 95%+ sure, not a 100% faith which is a parody of what climate change proponents are.

You have geological records from during the Pliocene (~3 MYA) showing current CO2 levels and ~25 meters higher sea level. And you have a not just the correlation but causation of CO2 being a heat trapping gas.

If this were not so deadly serious I bet that you, maxparrish, would say "yeah, this increase of CO2 will warm up the planet and melt greenland and at least the West Antarctic ice sheet."

Because people on the "left" are dumb and extreme like in Sweden about gender issues (which I firmly contend) does not mean that global warming which is also pushed by the left will not happen.

You have to look dispassionately about this topic. It is truly immense and getting too close to unstoppable.

It is not a secular religion for me. It is a physical process that is actually fairly easy to understand at a rough approximation. Get the rough knowledge handled and don't go spouting off like a middle schooler on niggling details.

Wow, you don't believe in the climate change conspiracy theory promoted by FOX News and other conservative media?

What caused you to break ranks with other rightists? Just curious.
 
I am not a fix news fan, but their is a totalitarian streak to some leftists that annoys me. You cant fix these social problems the way they want. This is why Occupy Wall Street was such a tragic disaster. A noble stop bailing out speculators movement was imploded by leftist infighting.

What it is about getting the truth global warming is that people can infight all they want and it can all be ignored, because the numbers don't lie. For OWS the infighting could not be ignored. Because the problem it sought to tackle was one of human making - fraud and corruption on a massive scale.

Also, I am a full on peak oil proponent and think that the Limits to Growth disaster will commence very shortly. Gonna be like a piano sliding down the stairs.

Even though on social (race, gender) issues the guardian annoys me at times, this is a great article:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse
 
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Having spent more than 15 years as a climate luke-warmer (and regularly labeled a climate change denier) it is nice to see the small but growing number who agree - global warming is real but it's much ado about very little.

Matt Ridley offered his observations about the state of things in an article in the London Times a few days ago entitled “My Life as A Climate Lukewarmer.”

I am a climate lukewarmer. That means I think recent global warming is real, mostly man-made and will continue but I no longer think it is likely to be dangerous and I think its slow and erratic progress so far is what we should expect in the future. That last year was the warmest yet, in some data sets, but only by a smidgen more than 2005, is precisely in line with such lukewarm thinking.

This view annoys some sceptics who think all climate change is natural or imaginary, but it is even more infuriating to most publicly funded scientists and politicians, who insist climate change is a big risk. My middle-of-the-road position is considered not just wrong, but disgraceful, shameful, verging on scandalous. I am subjected to torrents of online abuse for holding it, very little of it from sceptics.

I was even kept off the shortlist for a part-time, unpaid public-sector appointment in a field unrelated to climate because of having this view, or so the headhunter thought. In the climate debate, paying obeisance to climate scaremongering is about as mandatory for a public appointment, or public funding, as being a Protestant was in 18th-century England.

Kind friends send me news almost weekly of whole blog posts devoted to nothing but analysing my intellectual and personal inadequacies, always in relation to my views on climate. Writing about climate change is a small part of my life but, to judge by some of the stuff that gets written about me, writing about me is a large part of the life of some of the more obsessive climate commentators. It’s all a bit strange...

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/01/when-climate-heretics-speak.php

Yes, the congenital problem with liberals is that they over think things, they believe that every problem requires immediate action, usually by the government. They believe that they understand every problem that we face and they know what the solution is. This surety extends to things that they truly don't understand at all.

On the other side, the congenital problem with conservatives is that they fear change and they are afraid to act. They believe that society is held together by social mores and traditions and that change threatens both. This fear to act concerning the real problems that we face, that pretty much by definition are problems where the status quo is not working and some change is required, means that conservatives will almost always be wrong. This in turn means that conservatives must continually fabricate lies to first convince themselves and second to try to convince others that the conservative path of not acting is the correct one. This dependency on falsehoods means that conservatives are subject to a broad range of manipulation by anyone who can consistently fabricate and reliably disseminate the best lies.

In a perfect world neither conservatives or liberals would control the government, moderates would.

The climate change argument is a prime example of the failure of both sides. There is a serious problem with the carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Unfortunately it is a problem that moves at a glacial pace. This means that one, it is not an obvious problem, year to year there aren't many changes, two, that while we do have (did have?) a long time to react the solutions will themselves take a long time before any correction will take effect and three, the corrections will adversely effect entrenched, powerful, moneyed interests.

Conservatives put their faith in the lies that the entrenched powerful moneyed interests fabricate that nothing has to be done because there is no real problem. That the scientists are spreading lies themselves to promote their own moneyed interests, which is exactly what the entrenched interests, the carbon lobby, are doing.

The liberals see the problems and they believe the scientists but they overstate the problem and have latched on to an expensive, somewhat impractical solution. Primarily because they have previously overreacted to problems with the most obvious and straight forward solution to the climate change problem, nuclear power. Problems that in turn could be solved except that the solutions once again would conflict with entrenched, powerful, moneyed interests protected from those changes by conservatives.

The problem for moderates is that they no longer are the majority where they would decide the best solutions. They, we, are a distinct minority and have no real choice but to support the side that is the least wrong. And since the conservatives are almost always wrong about obvious problems, that has to be the liberal side. Inaction is a poor choice in this and in most cases.

Besides, I would never want to be called 'sceptic.' Which I gather is a British spelling of ’skeptic,’ but is too close to 'septic' for me.
 
Having spent more than 15 years as a climate luke-warmer (and regularly labeled a climate change denier) it is nice to see the small but growing number who agree - global warming is real but it's much ado about very little.

Matt Ridley offered his observations about the state of things in an article in the London Times a few days ago entitled “My Life as A Climate Lukewarmer.”

I am a climate lukewarmer. That means I think recent global warming is real, mostly man-made and will continue but I no longer think it is likely to be dangerous and I think its slow and erratic progress so far is what we should expect in the future. That last year was the warmest yet, in some data sets, but only by a smidgen more than 2005, is precisely in line with such lukewarm thinking.

This view annoys some sceptics who think all climate change is natural or imaginary, but it is even more infuriating to most publicly funded scientists and politicians, who insist climate change is a big risk. My middle-of-the-road position is considered not just wrong, but disgraceful, shameful, verging on scandalous. I am subjected to torrents of online abuse for holding it, very little of it from sceptics.

I was even kept off the shortlist for a part-time, unpaid public-sector appointment in a field unrelated to climate because of having this view, or so the headhunter thought. In the climate debate, paying obeisance to climate scaremongering is about as mandatory for a public appointment, or public funding, as being a Protestant was in 18th-century England.

Kind friends send me news almost weekly of whole blog posts devoted to nothing but analysing my intellectual and personal inadequacies, always in relation to my views on climate. Writing about climate change is a small part of my life but, to judge by some of the stuff that gets written about me, writing about me is a large part of the life of some of the more obsessive climate commentators. It’s all a bit strange...

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/01/when-climate-heretics-speak.php

Max: You are not LUKEWARM. You are ICE COLD. Your position seems to me a bit strange. You are a denier of a lot more than just climate change. Once one recognizea where climate change is taking us, one tends to give dealing with it rationally a lot more importance. You can still be kind to little old ladies and really outdo yourself with your carbon footprint at the same time. We are all bi-conceptual beings. Actually, the Koch Brothers require candidates who speak like you on climate change or they don't get any of their campaign money. We have a fresh load of these Koch sponsored people in congress this year. The deniers do pretty good with anybody who requires money and is either loose with their responsibility for the human condition or very very forgetful. There are reasons for questioning your humanism.:thinking:
 
Having spent more than 15 years as a climate luke-warmer (and regularly labeled a climate change denier) it is nice to see the small but growing number who agree - global warming is real but it's much ado about very little.
I'm glad you feel reassured by a blogger and a politician who wrote an article.
 
My problem with lukewarmers is that they reinforce the status quo, which needs to be changed whether climate change is going to be a big problem or not. Virtually everything suggested by the doomsayers would be a good idea to implement even if the situation is not as dire as they think. So, if we take their advice and we are one day no longer dependent on fossil fuels, livestock factories, and reckless energy consumption, and the climate situation turns out to be a big fuss about nothing, we'll still have all those accomplishments. On the other hand, if the scenario is reversed, all the doomsayers will have "I told you so" rights as ecosystems (and the world economies that depend on them) collapse. It sounds a bit like Pascal's wager, I know, but the late Christopher Hitchens once remarked that we don't have another earth to run an experiment on. The experiment is happening right now, and the outcome is uncertain; given the stakes, and the benefits of clean energy apart from reduced carbon emissions, I'd rather be wrong about being too cautious than wrong about being lukewarm.
 
It's not as if climate change isn't dangerous: our civilization is well adapted to the current interstadial climate, but we know things have been very different in the past and there is no reason to assume they cannot change in future, whatever the reason. For instance, it is very unusual for there to be ice caps at both poles simultaneously, and apart from "Snowball Earth" episodes, the current global temperature is quite cool. Could it be that warming would have happened eventually anyway, basically the planet reverting to normal?

Also it surprises me that so much can be inferred from only a few decades of measurements, but by the time we know for sure, it'll either be too late or else we will have perhaps squandered efforts on solving a problem that doesn't exist, leaving a bigger problem unsolved (overpopulation?) What to do? Difficult to predict the future of a species.
 
I am not a fix news fan, but their is a totalitarian streak to some leftists that annoys me. You cant fix these social problems the way they want. This is why Occupy Wall Street was such a tragic disaster. A noble stop bailing out speculators movement was imploded by leftist infighting.

Yes, OWS was right on the issues and wrong in the execution. As I told max the left doesn't understand the problem in enough depth. It is not only a problem of the bailouts but that the investor class has too much money that allows them to build these repeated asset bubbles. That this excess money would be better used to raise wages than to be invested in the zero sum gambling of Wall Street's paper products; so-called investments that don't grow the economy. And OWS completely screwed the solution, falling back on the strategy of the civil rights movement, civil disobedience. Which did nothing but to discredit them.

But I am interested in some explanation of your feeling that the left tends toward a "totalitarian streak" that annoys you. We are talking about moderates having to pick sides between two rather poor choices here. But one of the reasons that I have to pick the liberals is that conservatives for all of their talk about their love of freedom and liberty allow themselves to be stamped toward authoritarianism at the drop of a hat. For example, throwing large numbers of our citizens in jail to reduce crime in the streets or accepting torture and unprecedented government surveillance because of the threat of radical Islam while ignoring the closer and more immediate threat of our own radical right.

What it is about getting the truth global warming is that people can infight all they want and it can all be ignored, because the numbers don't lie. For OWS the infighting could not be ignored. Because the problem it sought to tackle was one of human making - fraud and corruption on a massive scale.

Also, I am a full on peak oil proponent and think that the Limits to Growth disaster will commence very shortly. Gonna be like a piano sliding down the stairs.

Even though on social (race, gender) issues the guardian annoys me at times, this is a great article:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

Once again, the left is right on the issue, consumption of natural resources, but wrong on the solutions, drum circles and wishing for everyone to see the light. Our mixed economic system is very powerful and very adaptable. We need to use it to find solutions, not to brand it as the problem.
 
I would reserve the term fanatics for people who chant meaningless mantras on this topic -- like Limbaugh, who declares that man is incapable of making the planet unlivable -- and that God would not let man do this. How's that for sane analysis? Or for the many, many righties who chant the company line that it is foolish (or 'arrogant', their other buzz word) to think that human activity could affect the climate. That's research-based opining for ya. (And it's like saying that air pollution, which has already made smog canyons out of Mexico City and factory sectors in China, and created acid rain, and cancelled outdoor gym classes in L.A., simply can't be the cause of the last two historically hot decades.) Or the notion that 95+% of the climatologists and geologists are in a cabal to foist this climate change 'ideology' on us. Anyone who holds to these 'views' is displaying the naked face of fanaticism.
 
Ironically capitalism greatest supporters here, the right, also seem to believe that capitalism is always in a delicate balance. That we can't tip the balance for fear that we will destroy capitalism and slide to authoritarian totalitarianism. In fact the most vigorous supporters of capitalism make the absolutely ridiculous suggestion that we should set capitalism free to self-regulate, this in spite of all of the failures of the unregulated market to self-regulate down through history.

The truth of course, is that our current mixed model of capitalism is the product of thousands of years of evolution, that it is a very robust system that can be adapted to accomplish almost any end, that no economic condition is just the way that "things have to be."

Seemingly neither the right or the left can accept this. But the evidence that this is true is there, out in the open for all to see.
 
Climate science is actually well established but it is much less clear and far more controversial what should be done about it.

The Kyoto Protocol was a disaster because it let most of the world, including the now number one emitter China and number 3 emitter India, off the hook. It was also not a good deal concerning US vs. EU as the baseline year was chosen to be 1990, conveniently just before dirty and inefficient East German industry was largely shut down and gradually replaced by more modern western technology. Thus German's target of -21% was a freeby which allowed many EU countries to actually increase their emissions (some like Greece or Spain by more than 20% - and those countries have the temerity to claim they have been treated unfairly by the EU!) while still maintaining EU target of 8%. Inexplicably the developed country of Australia was allowed an increase of 8%!

The recent US-China agreement is not much better. US pledged real reductions and right now, while China merely promised to stop the increase in emissions by 2030.
 
I would reserve the term fanatics for people who chant meaningless mantras on this topic -- like Limbaugh, who declares that man is incapable of making the planet unlivable -- and that God would not let man do this. How's that for sane analysis? Or for the many, many righties who chant the company line that it is foolish (or 'arrogant', their other buzz word) to think that human activity could affect the climate. That's research-based opining for ya. (And it's like saying that air pollution, which has already made smog canyons out of Mexico City and factory sectors in China, and created acid rain, and cancelled outdoor gym classes in L.A., simply can't be the cause of the last two historically hot decades.) Or the notion that 95+% of the climatologists and geologists are in a cabal to foist this climate change 'ideology' on us. Anyone who holds to these 'views' is displaying the naked face of fanaticism.

Limbaugh is an integral part of the vast right wing alternate truth fabrication factory built to shield conservatives from the truth that sometimes change is needed. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to learn that Rush Limbaugh of didn't believe in most of the garage that he puts out. Whether he believes it or not he does it because he makes a lot of money by doing it. Which probably means that he does believe that climate scientists are in it for the money, just like he is.
 
There are two kinds of climate change denier. Those who think the climate isn't changing, which is an increasingly difficult position to defend, and those who think it is changing but don't want to do anything about it, because they think the measures required are too damaging compared to the size of the problem. There have always been these two views. All that's happening is that people who can no longer defend the idea that the climate isn't changing are now switching to arguing that it isn't changing very much. And rather than let all that demonisation of their previous opponents go to waste, by admitting that on this particular point (is the climate changing?) their opponents were right all along, they instead try to cast themselves as 'moderates' or 'lukewarmers'.

I don't see any clear blue water between Max or Dyson (see article) and rabid climate change deniers. They're all arguing for the same course of action, which is to do very little.
 
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Climate science is actually well established but it is much less clear and far more controversial what should be done about it.

The Kyoto Protocol was a disaster because it let most of the world, including the now number one emitter China and number 3 emitter India, off the hook. It was also not a good deal concerning US vs. EU as the baseline year was chosen to be 1990, conveniently just before dirty and inefficient East German industry was largely shut down and gradually replaced by more modern western technology. Thus German's target of -21% was a freeby which allowed many EU countries to actually increase their emissions (some like Greece or Spain by more than 20% - and those countries have the temerity to claim they have been treated unfairly by the EU!) while still maintaining EU target of 8%. Inexplicably the developed country of Australia was allowed an increase of 8%!

The recent US-China agreement is not much better. US pledged real reductions and right now, while China merely promised to stop the increase in emissions by 2030.

Pretty much all diversions used to justify inaction, not anything in it to point to solutions to the problem. China and India are still very low emitters based on per capita emissions. The damage from the carbon is from the excess accumulation in the atmosphere and the US and Europe with 5% of the world's population is responsible for more than 40% of the accumulated carbon, not to mention that the developed economies are better equiped to find and impliment the solutions.

Let the right try to negotiate better terms. So far their attitude has been horrible.
 
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I don't see any clear blue water between Max or Dyson (see article) and rabid climate change deniers. They're all arguing for the same course of action, which is to do very little.

This little tidbit might be instructive.

"The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl:Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/11303325/hornbeck_dustbowl.pdf?sequence=1

The first nail was radical change of mid-western ecology from grazing and grass land first by elimination of bison and then digging up grasses that held land in check during periodic droughts.

In the late nineteenth century, agricultural production began to expand substantially on the American Plains, and native grasslands were increasingly plowed up for crops. The Plains experienced severe drought during the 1930s, particularly in 1934 and 1936, which led to widespread crop failure. This loss of ground cover made farmland susceptible to self-perpetuating dust storms (wind erosion) and substantial runoff during occasional heavy rains (water erosion).

Its seems to me that any argument that current man effects are minor when we have a recent example of the effects of western civilization on mid-western ecology is still shadowing us 80 years later.
 
Pretty much all diversions used to justify inaction, not anything in it to point to solutions to the problem.
Not justifying inaction, but pointing out that we need a different kind of action. One that holds countries responsible for majority of global emissions accountable as well.
China and India are still very low emitters based on per capita emissions.
So what? They more than make up for it in volume. Besides, Chinese per capita emissions are not really low - China is at 6.2 tons, which is more than France or Sweden (both at 5.6t). India is still pretty low for sure (1.7t) but they have a lot of people and ignoring their emissions because of misguided politics is just plain stupid.
Note also that implementing draconian emissions cuts on developed countries but letting developing countries off the hook has an effect of making the latter even more attractive for energy intensive manufacturing outsourcing than it would already be the case due to wage levels. Therefore, it shifts emissions toward countries with no emission cut targets in effect increasing emissions more while damaging the manufacturing sector of the developed countries. Very stupid indeed.
The damage from the carbon is from the excess accumulation in the atmosphere and the US and Europe with 5% of the world's population is responsible for more than 40% of the accumulated carbon, not to mention that the developed economies are better equiped to find and impliment the solutions.
The damage comes from the total amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere - climate doesn't care if it has been emitted by US, China, India or Germany.
And actually developed economies have plucked all the low-hanging fruits of energy efficiency. It is far more cost-effective to retrofit an old Indian power plant than a relatively modern US or European one.

Let the right try to negotiate better terms. So far their attitude has been horrible.
The Left's attitude (soak the developed nations even though they contribute a decreasing share of global CO2 emissions) has been pretty horrible too.
 
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