• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

Death of the Tea Party?

Jimmy Higgins

Contributor
Joined
Jan 31, 2001
Messages
44,142
Basic Beliefs
Calvinistic Atheist
So I was pondering about the House and those asshole teabaggers in it. One of the goals in 2016 is destroy the Tea Party movement.

However, there is one problem. Gerrymandering is one reason we have teabaggers in the first place! So while a thorough beat down of Trump would look bad for the Teabaggers, and possibly even see the Republicans losing control of the House, the Teabaggers themselves are generally in safe seats. Could a blow out actually increase their influence in Congress?
 
I doubt it. The Tea Party and their supporters are quite happy to have a job consisting of nothing more than holding their breath until they turn blue and blaming everything on the libruls. If there is a blowout amongst the Republicans in Congress, the gerrymandering would make that blowout affect the Republicans in less conservative areas moreso than those in more conservative areas, so they'll be even a bigger fraction of the elected GOP. The rest of the GOP will like them even less than they do now, but they won't be able to do anything about their influence.
 
The thing that always kills political movements is ineffectiveness. It's fairly simple to get elected with a new plan, even if it's a stupid one. It's that "I'll try anything once," political policy.

The problem comes at reelection. Single issue candidates never do well at reelection because it's too easy to pull their record and show they have accomplished nothing. They are vulnerable from the left and the right.
 
The thing that always kills political movements is ineffectiveness. It's fairly simple to get elected with a new plan, even if it's a stupid one. It's that "I'll try anything once," political policy.

The problem comes at reelection. Single issue candidates never do well at reelection because it's too easy to pull their record and show they have accomplished nothing. They are vulnerable from the left and the right.
In general, with gerrymandering as bad as it is, these are safe seats and hard seats for the Democrats to take. This means the obstructionist Republicans have to take the seats back from the Armageddon Republicans. And with such a safe seat, it may be hard to over come the crazy.

I just think it a bit odd, that it is possible Trump could get crushed, the Democrats get both houses, yet the Tea Party nearly untouched in the House itself. Their influence wouldn't be that high, though as the Dems can just give them the finger and not have to worry about pulling their fractured party together for every single vote.
 
I do think a Trump blowout could encourage the non-T GOP to perhaps vote from time to time with Dems. Thus taking power from the Tea.

I hope so. I _hate_ the tea party ideology.
 
More effective, but a longer term solution - eliminate gerrymandered districts
 
More effective, but a longer term solution - eliminate gerrymandered districts

A-fuckin'-men.

- - - Updated - - -

This may be a great thing that the new Supreme Court could do.
 
More effective, but a longer term solution - eliminate gerrymandered districts

This is a major reason why Tip O'neill made his famous statement that all politics is local. The gerrymandering took place when the GOP started winning all the state House elections. Democrats spend too much time focusing on electing people to national post and neglect local politics. The results are the redrawing of districts in the states to favor the GOP.
 
More effective, but a longer term solution - eliminate gerrymandered districts

This is a major reason why Tip O'neill made his famous statement that all politics is local. The gerrymandering took place when the GOP started winning all the state House elections. Democrats spend too much time focusing on electing people to national post and neglect local politics. The results are the redrawing of districts in the states to favor the GOP.
Not as simple as that. The States redistricted after the 2010 election. There was that whole irrational Republican landslide in 2010 that pumped State and Fed legislatures with Republicans because... health care coverage.
 
More effective, but a longer term solution - eliminate gerrymandered districts

That is a long term strategy. The GOP began their grand plan in the 80's. They worked to gain control of State Legislatures, which set the boundaries of Congressional Districts. Starting with the 1990 census, gerrymandercreep let them cement their majority in the House. It will take nearly as long to undo the damage.
 
More effective, but a longer term solution - eliminate gerrymandered districts

A-fuckin'-men.

- - - Updated - - -

This may be a great thing that the new Supreme Court could do.

The Supreme Court has tried to deal with it in the past, most recently in the case of Vieth v. Jubelirer. The first problem has to do with justiciability, that is, whether the Court even has jurisdiction over matters set by local legislatures. Suffice it to say that it's a serious separation of powers issue and call it a day on that one. But even for the Justices who do believe it's a justiciable issue, none of them could agree on how it's to be done.

In Vieth, a minority (of four) did not believe partisan gerrymandering to be a justiciable issue. The remaining five members couldn't agree among themselves on what the standards for a gerrymandering claim should be. Briefly:

Stevens: he'd let the plaintiffs win if they "could show that the legislature allowed partisan consideration to dominate and control the lines drawn, forsaking all neutral principles." So if the only possible explanation for a district's bizarre shape is a naked desire to increase partisan strength, Stevens would find the partisan-drawn district to be a violation of equal protection.

Souter: he proposed a five-element standard for a prima facie case of gerrymandering. For example, he would require the plaintiffs to show that the district in which they resided "Paid little or no heed to those traditional districting principles like contiguity, compactness, respect for political subdivisions, and conformity with geographic features like rivers and mountains." The plaintiffs would also have to establish "specific correlations between the district's deviations from traditional districting principles and the distraction of the population of his group. For example, if a Democrat-plaintiff brought the claim that the lines were drawn in a way that split particular towns and/or communities he would have to show that "Democrats tended to fall on one side and Republicans on the other."

Kennedy: he couldn't say what the prcise standard ought to be but thought that a standard based on the First Amendment might work better than one based on the Equal Protection clause. That is, he thought the Court should try to use First Amendment free-association principles to protect the disfavored voter's rights not to be discriminated against on account of their association with the disfavored political party.

So following Vieth, it's hard to see how plaintiffs in a partisan-gerrymandering case can ever convince a majority of the Court to agree on one standard, if at all.

It's important to note that this wasn't necessarily a liberal v. conservative dilemma on the Court, although Scalia argued that no justiciable solution existed. That might indicate on first blush that it was a conservative against liberal decision, but O'Connor concurred in the decision and Souter dissented (generally). So you had a pretty mixed bag.

And if you look at the ideas that Souter, Kennedy, and Stevens had, it's pretty easy to see how each idea in turn could be defeated simply by those who believe it's non-justiciable combined with the disagreements by the other Justices who believe it is something for the Courts to decide, but don't agree on how it should be done.

The Court could say that partisan gerrymandering has taken place, but they have to lay down a reasonably precise workable standard for it, so that the offending district can be remedied. Without at least five of them agreeing on that standard, the plaintiff's case is lost, and then another party in another district is going to have to bring a different case and hope that by that time the Court can reach an agreement.

This^ is the situation in a nutshell.
 
We'd need a Constitutional amendment to prevent gerrymandering. Not happening.
 
So far the tea baggers (yeah I know they don't like to be called that, fuck those tea baggers) can blame everything on no one being sufficiently far right enough to do the job, with the exception of themselves, of course. Cushy little spot to be in.
 
This is a major reason why Tip O'neill made his famous statement that all politics is local. The gerrymandering took place when the GOP started winning all the state House elections. Democrats spend too much time focusing on electing people to national post and neglect local politics. The results are the redrawing of districts in the states to favor the GOP.
Not as simple as that. The States redistricted after the 2010 election. There was that whole irrational Republican landslide in 2010 that pumped State and Fed legislatures with Republicans because... health care coverage.
The've been redistricting in the GOPs favor since the 80s.
 
I _hate_ the tea party ideology.

They have an ideology?

More effective, but a longer term solution - eliminate gerrymandered districts

Both parties benefit from it, both parties will resist actual change (but both will favor redrawing the gerrymandered lines to favor themselves).

It is like how IRV benefits the people, but it requires those in power to sacrifice their own power in order to implement it.
 
I _hate_ the tea party ideology.
They have an ideology?

The ideology of theirs that I hate is that government is inherently bad, it should be broken to show it is bad, efforts should be made to break it as often as possible with no concern for replacement ideas. Destroy, disrupt. Oh and regulate sex as much as possible.
 
They have an ideology?

The ideology of theirs that I hate is that government is inherently bad, it should be broken to show it is bad, efforts should be made to break it as often as possible with no concern for replacement ideas. Destroy, disrupt. Oh and regulate sex as much as possible.
That's not an ideology. That's shitting your pants and liking the smell.
 
They have an ideology?

More effective, but a longer term solution - eliminate gerrymandered districts

Both parties benefit from it, both parties will resist actual change (but both will favor redrawing the gerrymandered lines to favor themselves).

It is like how IRV benefits the people, but it requires those in power to sacrifice their own power in order to implement it.

http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/libertarian-roots-tea-party

NWMROn5.gif
 
I think that article is wrong about the tea party not caring about social issue control. Or, perhaps has _become_ wrong. Because they sure seem to care a lot now.
 
Back
Top Bottom