Decline of the Western World

[RVonse]

People have been prophesying the decline of the western world about as long as the Second Coming of Christ.

The Decline of the West - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Wikipedia says the publication date was 1918, putting this right after the end of WW1 a war was not properly resolved turning into WW2. At that period of time, the west could be said to be in a period of crises much as it is today.

This would actually be very consistant with well known and predictable cycles of political violence discovered by Peter Turchin: https://peterturchin.com/the-50-year-cycle-of-political-violence-strikes-again/

 

[steve_bank]

When has the world not been in crisis?

There has not been a catastrophic war in Europe since WWII. Thank the EU and NATO for that.

Every one knew WWI was coming, it was a matter of the trigger. There are efferent reasons given for WWII in Europe. The punitive nature of the Treaty Of Versailles.

In Japan it was the resurgence of Japanese imperialism.

In Italy it was Fascism.

In America it was isolationism.

NATO and the EU are new ideas. Democratic self rule and rights protected by governmentt is rustically new.

International rule of law on such a scale as today is new.

Global hum,an rights is new.

On the side of the above western liberal democracy, that which gyves you the ability to post freely on this forum. Opposed authoritarians and dictators. China, Russia, North Korea and a number of small dictatorships.

Several times I stated threads asking on what basis you think things will be as they are today year or 20 years from now. No reposes.

Historically western democracies are wildly successful. Education and prosperity for the masses on such a scale. The idea of ensuring all citizens have food, shelter, and medical care is new.


Russian and Chinese communism failed miserably. China rebuilt itself by adopting western economics while maintaining rigid social and political control.

China and Russia would like to replace the power and influence of western systems. What do you think would happen if that happens? It is not poundage, it is a substantive question.

What happens to our freedoms you take for granted?

WWII was an existential battle between democracies and dictatorships.

 

[Politesse]

This was the grave mistake made during Clinton years that will soon cost all of us our way of life.

The myth is that there was anything the US government could have done to prevent the resurrection of China. There was not. Nearly one eighth of the global population are Chinese laborers, and most of the rest own or use something those laborers have produced. We can rage against the teat we suckle, all we like. But the People's Republic is not going to have a sudden reversal of fortunes on the way up the stairs.

 

[bilby]

There are efferent reasons given for WWII in Europe. The punitive nature of the Treaty Of Versailles.

In Japan it was the resurgence of Japanese imperialism.

The Japanese Empire made the grave mistake of thinking that the European powers wouldn't object to Japan behaving exactly like a European power.

If Imperialism wasn't a sufficient and acceptable reason to invade China, or Indo-China, or the Dutch East Indies, then how come nobody was fighting Britain, France, or The Netherlands over their imperialism? If it was, then how was Japan any more guilty of wrongdoing than those other imperial nations?

 

[barbos]

We'll need you to post a photo of your Doctoral Diploma in Economics before we pay any attention to your unsubstantiated claims,

I don't have Doctoral Diploma in Economics. But you can ask Sachs for his. I think he would agree with me when I say there is a reason why PPP GDP was invented and that reason is that nominal GDP is utter shit.

 

[barbos]

This was the grave mistake made during Clinton years that will soon cost all of us our way of life.

His donors wanted to open sweat shops in China. Had he said no, he would have stayed Governor of Arkansas.
Mistake he made was actually starting the process of aggravating Russia. But that was an easy to make mistake.
And again, his donors wanted that too.

 

[barbos]

Free Market Capitalism

How is that consistent with 100% tariff on chinese cars?

 

[steve_bank]

Free Market Capitalism

How is that consistent with 100% tariff on chinese cars?

Trump was an incompetent businessman and an incompetent president, we have had a few.

His Chinese tariff threats are not considered a good idea economically and it is Trump playing to his base.

That being said tariffs have a place. China adopted some of free market capitalist economics but does not play be free market rules. They steal technology and intellectual property and do it openly. There is no real line between Chinese government and major business.

We don't place poor people in larghe manufacturing complexes and pay tthem cheap wages.

There is reported some movement of manufacturing from China to Vietnam and India,.

Get yourself a text on economics.

 

[barbos]

Trump was an incompetent businessman and an incompetent president, we have had a few.

Competent Biden did not call off that 100% Tariff.

 

[RVonse]

When has the world not been in crisis?

There has not been a catastrophic war in Europe since WWII. Thank the EU and NATO for that.

You sort of answered your first question with your next sentence. The crises 5th turning phase only happens every 90 years or so. The one before the 1930's was around 1850 or so with the civil war. And the one before the civil war was around 1770 with the American revolution. All of these turnings are predictable based on human behavior based on the average life expectancy.

Billionaire Ray Dalio explains better in this short 5 min video than I can why these economic and empire turnings happen but they in fact do happen on a regular and predictable basis:

The US will go through its final 5th turning crises phase just like the British empire did during WW2, and just like the Dutch empire did before the UK. As the Chinese empire will go through a similar crises stage 90 years from now. Because despite all the history of the Dutch, UK, and US, the Chinese will be destined to repeat the process and fail their economy the same exact way due to their lifetimes not being long enough to gain wisdom of the prior experience.

 

[RVonse]

This was the grave mistake made during Clinton years that will soon cost all of us our way of life.

The myth is that there was anything the US government could have done to prevent the resurrection of China. There was not. Nearly one eighth of the global population are Chinese laborers, and most of the rest own or use something those laborers have produced. We can rage against the teat we suckle, all we like. But the People's Republic is not going to have a sudden reversal of fortunes on the way up the stairs.

Its no myth it was simply a highly flawed and catastrophic political decision. There was never any thermodynamic law stating the US had to move its manufacturing base to China. This took deliberate agency and political direction made by the Clinton administration and congress at that time.

They could have easily incentive our own existing industry to stay right where they were. But instead they were worried more about nation building the rest of the globe.

 

[RVonse]

Free Market Capitalism

How is that consistent with 100% tariff on chinese cars?

Trump was an incompetent businessman and an incompetent president, we have had a few.

His Chinese tariff threats are not considered a good idea economically and it is Trump playing to his base.

That being said tariffs have a place. China adopted some of free market capitalist economics but does not play be free market rules. They steal technology and intellectual property and do it openly. There is no real line between Chinese government and major business.

We don't place poor people in larghe manufacturing complexes and pay tthem cheap wages.

There is reported some movement of manufacturing from China to Vietnam and India,.

Get yourself a text on economics.

First of all, Trump did not put a 100% tariff on Chinese cars, that is the Biden/ Harris administration. Second of all, how else can you possibly save the US auto industry at this point? And in the third place, look to the US of the 1950's if you want to see high wages AND local manufacturing. It can be done if enough capital is available to be employed. We no longer have real capital to employ because savings no longer makes any sense when inflation is rampant and interest is held artificially low. All the financial engineering of the fed serves mostly to make a few people rich and most everyone else out of work or employed at very low wages.

 

[steve_bank]

When has the world not been in crisis?

There has not been a catastrophic war in Europe since WWII. Thank the EU and NATO for that.

You sort of answered your first question with your next sentence. The crises 5th turning phase only happens every 90 years or so. The one before the 1930's was around 1850 or so with the civil war. And the one before the civil war was around 1770 with the American revolution. All of these turnings are predictable based on human behavior based on the average life expectancy.

Billionaire Ray Dalio explains better in this short 5 min video than I can why these economic and empire turnings happen but they in fact do happen on a regular and predictable basis:

The US will go through its final 5th turning crises phase just like the British empire did during WW2, and just like the Dutch empire did before the UK. As the Chinese empire will go through a similar crises stage 90 years from now. Because despite all the history of the Dutch, UK, and US, the Chinese will be destined to repeat the process and fail their economy the same exact way due to their lifetimes not being long enough to gain wisdom of the prior experience.

Did you know if you rearrange Putin you get Nutpi? Very significant in the prophesies of Nostradamus.

According to Nostradamus Nutpi will lead his country to its destruction in a great ball of fire, obviously nuclear weapons.


I can add up the numbers for letters of Putin and see where that goes.

Or I can use a Ouija board and let the spirits gudie me.

Look up a list of wars going back 1000 years. The Battle Of Waterloo ending Napoleon was only about140 years before I was born. There were people born during the civil war who were alive when I was born.

Sudan, Ukraine, Yemen, Gaza, Ukraine.


For us WWI,WWII,Korea,Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq.

Pakistan India war. India and Pakistan shooting at each other, China and India shooting at each other. China contrarily claiming international waters and harassing the Philippines.

It does not take a PHD in history, these days just the internet to look up the history od wars.

 

[Swammerdami]

We'll need you to post a photo of your Doctoral Diploma in Economics before we pay any attention to your unsubstantiated claims,

I don't have Doctoral Diploma in Economics. But you can ask Sachs for his. I think he would agree with me when I say there is a reason why PPP GDP was invented and that reason is that nominal GDP is utter shit.

I said you'd be unable to link to a scholarly paper! What do I win?
If you do Google, make sure your Google-hit supports your blathering gibberish that "nominal GDP is utter shit."

 

[RVonse]

It does not take a PHD in history, these days just the internet to look up the history od wars.

Peter Truchin discovered these predictable cycles long before the internet. When something is predictable and always occurs in exactly the same manner, that is much more than smoke and magic. Discovery in human predictable behavior is how Ray Dalio became a billionaire. Because the economy is really much based about human behavior.

 

[Swammerdami]

Tariffs can be good or bad. Those saying they're always bad (or, like Trump, claiming they're always good) are missing the point. I was embarrassed for Al Franken recently (on the Bill Maher show?) when he couldn't answer a simple question about tariffs.

There are at least three good reasons for tariffs:
(1) To address unfair trade practices. Countries can dump at a loss, or force their currency weak to increase market share. China has a history of stealing U.S. technology so they can undercut U.S. producers. Tariffs are an obvious way to counter such practices.
(2) To reciprocate when the other country, i.e. China, is imposing tariffs on us. China was once the major importer of U.S. soybeans but, I think, has stopped those imports altogether.
(3) To protect a nascent industry. The U.S. hopes to improve its own electric car industry, so "encourages" buyers to shop in-country.

I am NOT claiming that any specific "Biden tariff" is proper. (And the EV tariff seems to benefit the neo-fascist Musk specifically. ) I just claim the issue is more complicated than suggested in this thread.

 

[barbos]

I said you'd be unable to link to a scholarly paper!

scholarly paper explaining PPP GDP?

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to calculate GDP to compare the economic output of countries in real terms. PPP is used because it accounts for differences in price levels and cost of living between countries, which can distort the true differences in per capita income.

Are we done with PPP?

 

[steve_bank]

It does not take a PHD in history, these days just the internet to look up the history od wars.

Peter Truchin discovered these predictable cycles long before the internet. When something is predictable and always occurs in exactly the same manner, that is much more than smoke and magic. Discovery in human predictable behavior is how Ray Dalio became a billionaire. Because the economy is really much based about human behavior.

I think you are posting this in the wrong forum, this is politics.

Cycles are obvious in the history of human civilization, I know that from general reading. This would be a thread for the history forum.

 

[steve_bank]

I said you'd be unable to link to a scholarly paper!

scholarly paper explaining PPP GDP?

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to calculate GDP to compare the economic output of countries in real terms. PPP is used because it accounts for differences in price levels and cost of living between countries, which can distort the true differences in per capita income.

Are we done with PPP?

Ignorance is bliss.

There was the Big Mac standard. Cramping local economies based on the aililityy to buy a Big Mac at local wages and prices.

The Seattle min wage is $20. A big Mac costs #6.39. Work an hour and you can buy about 3 Big Macs.

In Russia a Big Mac costs

However they still sell same things as McDonalds used to. Big Mac now called Big Hit costs depending on location and discounts from 139 to 165 rub, that is around 1.66 to 2 USD.Jan 19, 2024

In Russia, salaries can vary greatly, with the lowest average being just 26,200 rubles and the highest reaching 463,000 rubles. This wide range reflects the country's many different jobs and the difference in pay between regions. Even hourly wages show this variation, averaging around 600 rubles (roughly $7.15).

My $20 hourly wage here buys about 10 Big Macs in Russia.

600 rubles hourly wage buys 1 Big Mac here.

600 rubles hourly wage in Russia buys about 3 Big Macs in Russia.

 

[RVonse]

I think you are posting this in the wrong forum, this is politics.

Cycles are obvious in the history of human civilization, I know that from general reading. This would be a thread for the history forum.

The OP is about the US in decline which it is. That is alone is the political related issue, but the off topic reason for its explanation is shown using history of other similar empires entering the crises phase. Hence why I felt it relevant to this thread topic.