Decline of the Western World

[steve_bank]

Again the cue of growth, wealth, power, and decline goes back to the beginning.

Somedbdy [redcting to the tear when something major will happen is nonsense.

The 80s BBC series Connection went through history looking at major shifts and causes.

The conclusion was the future in specifics is not predicable.

No one could have predicted Hamas kidnapping Jews leading to the Gaza war as it is.

I don't think we are in decline or are in danger of collapsing. NATO and the EU is strong. Our economy is good. We are learningg as we go. We navigated inflation and COVID.

From BBC last night.

In contrast reports coming from Chin is they are in financial trouble. Real estate is 25% of their economy and it is failing. A lot of construction was started without fishing as more real estate projects started. They do not have the money to finish all of it. Add to that they are overextending loans to countries.

'The crises 5th turning phase only happens every 90 years' to me is nonsense, wrong forum.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Meanwhile, here is the reality of conditions in China, not a stupid YouTube video.

100% this. China has built it's economy around rapid growth. While they were far behind, it worked well. As they get close to the western world is no longer works. The economy has been kept hurrying along by overcapacity and that's finally catching up with them. They are facing a situation like our housing crisis but much, much bigger.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Meanwhile, here is the reality of conditions in China, not a stupid YouTube video.

That's propaganda garbage.

I've been inside a semi-ghost mall. I don't think it was more than 10% occupied. And I've seen real estate renting for the ballpark of .1% of value per month--but it should be around 1% of value per month.

 

[barbos]

Ignorance is bliss.

You are the best evidence of that.

My $20 hourly wage here buys about 10 Big Macs in Russia.

600 rubles hourly wage buys 1 Big Mac here.

600 rubles hourly wage in Russia buys about 3 Big Macs in Russia.

So basically you are saying there is no difference between Russia and US if eat that crap.

 

[barbos]

I've been inside a semi-ghost mall.

I have been to Sears too.

 

[pood]

People have been prophesying the decline of the western world about as long as the Second Coming of Christ.

The Decline of the West - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Wikipedia says the publication date was 1918, putting this right after the end of WW1 a war was not properly resolved turning into WW2. At that period of time, the west could be said to be in a period of crises much as it is today.

This would actually be very consistant with well known and predictable cycles of political violence discovered by Peter Turchin: https://peterturchin.com/the-50-year-cycle-of-political-violence-strikes-again/

Yeah, the hideous people Steve Bannon and James Kuntsler also parrot this historical “turning” bullshit. It doesn’t mean it’s wrong, because they are hideous; that would be ad hom. Rather, it just is wrong, and hideous people like to peddle stupid lies.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yes, obviously totals are "inflated" because China has 4 times the U.S.'s population. But you wrote "order of magnitude." That means "10" which is more than "4."

When making Fermi estimates, it is usual to round 3 or lower to 1, and 4 or higher to 10. So "China has a population that is an order of magnitude greater than that of the USA" is, approximately, correct. Just as "China has 4 times the U.S.'s population" is also approximately correct.

The actual and precise ratio of the populations of the two countries is a continuously changing number that is of little importance to anyone, and cannot be known due to the limitations of current information gathering technologies, so quibbling over ones choice of approximation technique seems rather silly.

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Where does he live to actually have that average driving speed? I could see it in a sufficiently rural environment but most people spend enough time in situations where you spend enough time stopped for traffic controls that you can't actually maintain that high an average.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

For total GDP, China is now #2 in the world, fast approaching the #1 slot.

It's called nominal GDP, economists don't use it anymore, Wolff does in this video for some reasons.
PPP GDP is a correct way to measure the size of the economy, PPP excludes effects of exchange rates.
China is #1 in PPP GDP. Russia is #4 ahead of Japan according to WB.

At least in the big cities there is little in China that is cheaper than it is in the US at this point. China of course has an advantage in produce that is more common there and China has an advantage in the price of cheap items because their labor costs of selling an item are lower.

 

[ZiprHead]

This was the grave mistake made during Clinton years that will soon cost all of us our way of life.

Who was NAFTA negotiated by?

NAFTA was negotiated by the administrations of U.S. Pres. George H.W. Bush, Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, and Mexican Pres. Carlos Salinas de Gortari.Aug 14, 2024

 

[steve_bank]

Ignorance is bliss.

You are the best evidence of that.

My $20 hourly wage here buys about 10 Big Macs in Russia.

600 rubles hourly wage buys 1 Big Mac here.

600 rubles hourly wage in Russia buys about 3 Big Macs in Russia.

So basically you are saying there is no difference between Russia and US if eat that crap.

No I am saying Politesse was right, 1 ruble equals $.01. I am not saying Russia and US are the same. At theex change rate right now I can buy 10 Big Macs in Russia for $20. For an average Russian hourly wage of 600 burbles a Russian can buy around 3.

If a Russian comes here and exchanges rubles for dollars he can only buy 1/3 of a Big Mac.

Russia's economy is a lot lower than the USA. If I wed to do an analys I woud cmpre ghorley wages in US and Russia and see how many hrs it takes to buy basics.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Evil is as old as time itself.

"Evil" requires a mind that can perceive it's actions as being harmful. Thus time is most certainly older.

 

[pood]

Evil is as old as time itself.

"Evil" requires a mind that can perceive it's actions as being harmful. Thus time is most certainly older.

“The existence of this whole world remains ever dependent upon the first eye that opened, even if it were that of an insect.” — Schopenhauer

I confess to having some leanings toward metaphysical idealism, but remain agnostic about it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Average dwelling size in China - 448.8 square feet
Average dwelling size in US - 2,233 square feet

And note the quality of said dwellings. Most of the private dwellings that I have been in in China clearly have no insulation in the walls. There's a lot of thermal mass to average things out but that's all.

Motor vehicles per 1000 people in China - 231
Motor vehicles per 1000 people in US - 900

I don't consider this an automatic win for the US. Much of our time in China has been in Shanghai. Virtually always foot + subway beats car. Cars shield you from the elements better and are good for cargo. Locals tend to do bicycle + subway + foot which does even better. If I were to live in a city like that I would absolutely not want a car.

And something your list does not capture--I trust the US product far, far more than the Chinese product. Even if it's an "identical" product--what's in the market in China very well might be the quality control rejects from what's exported.

 

[Axulus]

I've been reading most of this thread, and yet no one on the "West is declining" side of the argument has provided any hard data to support that. What exactly are the broad indicators of "decline", and show us what those indicators were at their peak vs now.

There seems to be this false idea that if China does good, meaning if its people are living better and have less poverty, then it must be coming at the expense of the West. It's the debunked idea of a zero sum game. No, that is not how the world works. All boats can rise in the world economy.

So what is it?

The best argument I can see is that there is a _threat_ of decline. If the world authoritarians get their way and expand their territory and influence, and the US becomes an illiberal democracy and retreats from the world, NATO and the EU fracture, then sure, I will be in the camp of the decline of the West. But we aren't there yet! We must be ever vigilant to keep what we've got.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I've been inside a semi-ghost mall.

I have been to Sears too.

I said "mall". Not a failing business, a mall that never got off the ground. Virtually all the occupancy was in the prime spaces, everything else was untouched. They built a mall they couldn't get tenants for.

 

[steve_bank]

I would say the start of modern western liberal democracies was the end of WWII.

WWII swept away the old political order and geopolitics and made room for liberal democracy.

WWII created the modern American economy and started the rapid technology development.. A lot of basic technology came out of the USA, and the Brits as well.

What we call the west today is only about 75 years old. New politics and new economics. Wold trade moderated by courts and rule of law.

 

[Swammerdami]

I posted some useful numbers in #116. But it's no surprise some of you are going off on pointless tangents. The BigMac index indeed!

The average Russian makes $550/per month (take-home) at the present exchange rate, so -- if he devotes his take-home pay to nothing else -- will need 52 months to pay $28.5k for the new Toyota sedan (again paying in rubles at the exchange rate).
An average American takes home $4500/month so will need only 5.8 months to buy the $26k car. The salary ratio, when expressed in Toyota sedans is 10:1, considerably more than the PPP inflator of just 2.7.

I could work more examples, and comment on why SOME goods or services are CHEAPER in a poor country, and some are NOT. But what's the point?

 

[Politesse]

I've been inside a semi-ghost mall.

I have been to Sears too.

I said "mall". Not a failing business, a mall that never got off the ground. Virtually all the occupancy was in the prime spaces, everything else was untouched. They built a mall they couldn't get tenants for.

We have one in California, off the 99 on the way to Stockton, that never finished building at all, it's just a massive concrete frame missing most of its walls but obviously mall-shaped. Now decaying, kind of creepy.

 

[bilby]

Where does he live to actually have that average driving speed?

Anyone who does mostly long distance driving, and uses public transport for their local travel, would be easily able to achieve that.

 

[bilby]

Average dwelling size in China - 448.8 square feet
Average dwelling size in US - 2,233 square feet

And note the quality of said dwellings. Most of the private dwellings that I have been in in China clearly have no insulation in the walls. There's a lot of thermal mass to average things out but that's all.

Motor vehicles per 1000 people in China - 231
Motor vehicles per 1000 people in US - 900

I don't consider this an automatic win for the US. Much of our time in China has been in Shanghai. Virtually always foot + subway beats car. Cars shield you from the elements better and are good for cargo. Locals tend to do bicycle + subway + foot which does even better. If I were to live in a city like that I would absolutely not want a car.

And something your list does not capture--I trust the US product far, far more than the Chinese product. Even if it's an "identical" product--what's in the market in China very well might be the quality control rejects from what's exported.

Motor vehicles per 1000 people in Manhattan - 200