• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

Familial DNA Searching

T.G.G. Moogly

Traditional Atheist
Joined
Mar 18, 2001
Messages
11,260
Location
PA USA
Basic Beliefs
egalitarian
Came across this article on the BBC. Was not familiar with the phrase but the method is certainly a winner in solving crimes. You get DNA samples from people in the area of the crime hoping to find similar DNA which narrows down the search for whodunnit. Pretty cool.

How familial DNA trapped a murderer for the first time

It involved DNA samples from a crime scene being passed to the National DNA Database in order to find very close matches, rather than exact matches. The theory was that some of these close matches might be related to the suspect, because they had such similar DNA. Police could then narrow down their search.
 
I'm not sure how I feel about this one; we have in the US a right not to incriminate oneself, and it seems like random DNA sampling could very well lead someone to incriminate themselves or a close relative unwittingly. Take this test case, for instance:

A young woman is raped, and her neighbor is suspected based on the victim's physical description. He refuses a DNA test and there isn't a sample on file for him, so they go to his mother and ask her for a sample. Thinking she knows her son to be innocent, since she is also his attested alibi (they had been watching The Price is Right alone together at the time of the alleged crime), she agrees. The results show that she does in fact have very similar DNA to the rapist. Since no one but her can confirm the alibi, but genetic evidence seems very convincing, the jury decides to convict her son of the crime.

Meanwhile, her maternal cousin (the actual rapist, as it turns out, who no one knew was even in the neighborhood at the time) walks free.

My concern here is double: the potential weakness of the method, especially considering just how often crimes are committed by close family, and the likelihood that this sort of genetic entrapment might butt against our constitutional guarantees.
 
I'm not sure how I feel about this one; we have in the US a right not to incriminate oneself, and it seems like random DNA sampling could very well lead someone to incriminate themselves or a close relative unwittingly. Take this test case, for instance:

A young woman is raped, and her neighbor is suspected based on the victim's physical description. He refuses a DNA test and there isn't a sample on file for him, so they go to his mother and ask her for a sample. Thinking she knows her son to be innocent, since she is also his attested alibi (they had been watching The Price is Right alone together at the time of the alleged crime), she agrees. The results show that she does in fact have very similar DNA to the rapist. Since no one but her can confirm the alibi, but genetic evidence seems very convincing, the jury decides to convict her son of the crime.

Meanwhile, her maternal cousin (the actual rapist, as it turns out, who no one knew was even in the neighborhood at the time) walks free.

My concern here is double: the potential weakness of the method, especially considering just how often crimes are committed by close family, and the likelihood that this sort of genetic entrapment might butt against our constitutional guarantees.

The right not to self-incriminate is to prevent tortured confessions. It normally only applies to what you know, not what you are.

And your scenario would not happen.

Ok, mother takes the DNA test, 50% match, therefore the rapist is an immediate blood relative.

The son's attorney demands a DNA test, it comes back less than 50%. The police are barking up the wrong tree and drop the case.
 
Where is this "test case" from?

My daughter and I and several family members have all had our DNA tested by one of the commercial companies. Each time a family member gets tested, those of us in the database get an alert but it is amazingly specific.

Here is the notification for my daughter: Possible range: Parent, Child - immediate family member; Confidence: Extremely High

Here is for my sister: Possible range: Immediate family - close family; Confidence: Extremely High

Here is one of my cousins: Possible range: 1st - 2nd cousins; Confidence: Extremely High

So I don't see how your "test case" could actually happen. Moreover, even if overzealous police mistakenly arrested the son in spite of the DNA results indicating a cousin, the son's DNA would not be a 100% match for the crime scene.

Personally, I don't have any problem with police using familial DNA to catch violent criminals - not even if it turns out to be my brother or my cousin and they used my DNA to narrow it down. :shrug:

The only concern I have about DNA databases is if private insurance companies want to use it to deny or increase charges for people on the basis of genetic markers (or when they require the use of fitbit devices.)
 
I'm not sure how I feel about this one; we have in the US a right not to incriminate oneself, and it seems like random DNA sampling could very well lead someone to incriminate themselves or a close relative unwittingly. Take this test case, for instance:

A young woman is raped, and her neighbor is suspected based on the victim's physical description. He refuses a DNA test and there isn't a sample on file for him, so they go to his mother and ask her for a sample. Thinking she knows her son to be innocent, since she is also his attested alibi (they had been watching The Price is Right alone together at the time of the alleged crime), she agrees. The results show that she does in fact have very similar DNA to the rapist. Since no one but her can confirm the alibi, but genetic evidence seems very convincing, the jury decides to convict her son of the crime.

Meanwhile, her maternal cousin (the actual rapist, as it turns out, who no one knew was even in the neighborhood at the time) walks free.

My concern here is double: the potential weakness of the method, especially considering just how often crimes are committed by close family, and the likelihood that this sort of genetic entrapment might butt against our constitutional guarantees.

The right not to self-incriminate is to prevent tortured confessions. It normally only applies to what you know, not what you are.

And your scenario would not happen.

Ok, mother takes the DNA test, 50% match, therefore the rapist is an immediate blood relative.

The son's attorney demands a DNA test, it comes back less than 50%. The police are barking up the wrong tree and drop the case.

That would be true, if there was such a thing as a perfect genetic test; But there isn't.

Amplification increases uncertainty, and contamination can never be ruled out. An RFLP test is very good evidence; But it's FAR from perfect. The same is true of fingerprint evidence - it's alleged by prosecutors to be 100% reliable, but a moments consideration would show that this is bullshit - no scientific protocol ever gets 100% accurate results every time, no matter how much effort is put into ensuring experimental conditions that are as ideal as possible; In a criminal investigation, forensic evidence collection is necessarily far from ideal.

Your faith in the science is blinding you to the unavoidability of error in real-world applications.

Real tests don't come back '50% match' (in flashing letters on a console that lights up at a dramatic moment in the investigation); The results that come back say "there is a 99.8% probability of a between 45 and 55% match between these samples, if they are uncontaminated". That an expert witness might well dumb that down to 'it's a 50% match' when testifying in front of a non-expert jury doesn't make it so. That the jurors have probably all seen CSI only adds to the problem.

The scenario suggested by Politesse is FAR closer to reality than your counterexample.

Such testing is of far more value during the investigative phase of a crime, when it can be used to eliminate suspects who do NOT match the profile, than it is during trial, as evidence for the prosecution. The authorities always have an incentive to convict anyone who is charged, and defence attorneys are far from perfect at questioning expert witnesses (after all, they are lawyers, not scientists). The burden of proof is on the prosecutor, and the ability of the prosecutor or expert witnesses to blind both defence and jury with science should be as limited as possible.
 
I don't know if it is universal, I believe convicted felons have their DNA tested.

There was something in the media about law enforcement and access to genetic testing service data.
 
I'm not sure how I feel about this one; we have in the US a right not to incriminate oneself, and it seems like random DNA sampling could very well lead someone to incriminate themselves or a close relative unwittingly. Take this test case, for instance:

A young woman is raped, and her neighbor is suspected based on the victim's physical description. He refuses a DNA test and there isn't a sample on file for him, so they go to his mother and ask her for a sample. Thinking she knows her son to be innocent, since she is also his attested alibi (they had been watching The Price is Right alone together at the time of the alleged crime), she agrees. The results show that she does in fact have very similar DNA to the rapist. Since no one but her can confirm the alibi, but genetic evidence seems very convincing, the jury decides to convict her son of the crime.

Meanwhile, her maternal cousin (the actual rapist, as it turns out, who no one knew was even in the neighborhood at the time) walks free.

My concern here is double: the potential weakness of the method, especially considering just how often crimes are committed by close family, and the likelihood that this sort of genetic entrapment might butt against our constitutional guarantees.

The right not to self-incriminate is to prevent tortured confessions. It normally only applies to what you know, not what you are.

And your scenario would not happen.

Ok, mother takes the DNA test, 50% match, therefore the rapist is an immediate blood relative.

The son's attorney demands a DNA test, it comes back less than 50%. The police are barking up the wrong tree and drop the case.

That would be true, if there was such a thing as a perfect genetic test; But there isn't.

Amplification increases uncertainty, and contamination can never be ruled out. An RFLP test is very good evidence; But it's FAR from perfect. The same is true of fingerprint evidence - it's alleged by prosecutors to be 100% reliable, but a moments consideration would show that this is bullshit - no scientific protocol ever gets 100% accurate results every time, no matter how much effort is put into ensuring experimental conditions that are as ideal as possible; In a criminal investigation, forensic evidence collection is necessarily far from ideal.

Your faith in the science is blinding you to the unavoidability of error in real-world applications.

Real tests don't come back '50% match' (in flashing letters on a console that lights up at a dramatic moment in the investigation); The results that come back say "there is a 99.8% probability of a between 45 and 55% match between these samples, if they are uncontaminated". That an expert witness might well dumb that down to 'it's a 50% match' when testifying in front of a non-expert jury doesn't make it so. That the jurors have probably all seen CSI only adds to the problem.

The scenario suggested by Politesse is FAR closer to reality than your counterexample.

Such testing is of far more value during the investigative phase of a crime, when it can be used to eliminate suspects who do NOT match the profile, than it is during trial, as evidence for the prosecution. The authorities always have an incentive to convict anyone who is charged, and defence attorneys are far from perfect at questioning expert witnesses (after all, they are lawyers, not scientists). The burden of proof is on the prosecutor, and the ability of the prosecutor or expert witnesses to blind both defence and jury with science should be as limited as possible.

If the samples are good enough the error bands are going to be very narrow, "50%" is good enough for lay terms. I do agree that poor samples can make for a lesser match but so what?

In the scenario in question the mother comes back 45%-55% (which I don't think is right, anyway--I think that relationship is only 1/16th). The son comes back 20%-30% and that's a non-match. Clearly not the rapist. The only way the son comes back with a higher match percentage than she has is if the father was her uncle or the rapist cousin.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't know if it is universal, I believe convicted felons have their DNA tested.

There was something in the media about law enforcement and access to genetic testing service data.

Yeah, they've been testing all of it. Some problems have been found with poor quality samples and immediate relatives causing false matches but the government won't permit researchers to study it.
 
That would be true, if there was such a thing as a perfect genetic test; But there isn't.

Amplification increases uncertainty, and contamination can never be ruled out. An RFLP test is very good evidence; But it's FAR from perfect. The same is true of fingerprint evidence - it's alleged by prosecutors to be 100% reliable, but a moments consideration would show that this is bullshit - no scientific protocol ever gets 100% accurate results every time, no matter how much effort is put into ensuring experimental conditions that are as ideal as possible; In a criminal investigation, forensic evidence collection is necessarily far from ideal.

Your faith in the science is blinding you to the unavoidability of error in real-world applications.

Real tests don't come back '50% match' (in flashing letters on a console that lights up at a dramatic moment in the investigation); The results that come back say "there is a 99.8% probability of a between 45 and 55% match between these samples, if they are uncontaminated". That an expert witness might well dumb that down to 'it's a 50% match' when testifying in front of a non-expert jury doesn't make it so. That the jurors have probably all seen CSI only adds to the problem.

The scenario suggested by Politesse is FAR closer to reality than your counterexample.

Such testing is of far more value during the investigative phase of a crime, when it can be used to eliminate suspects who do NOT match the profile, than it is during trial, as evidence for the prosecution. The authorities always have an incentive to convict anyone who is charged, and defence attorneys are far from perfect at questioning expert witnesses (after all, they are lawyers, not scientists). The burden of proof is on the prosecutor, and the ability of the prosecutor or expert witnesses to blind both defence and jury with science should be as limited as possible.

If the samples are good enough the error bands are going to be very narrow, "50%" is good enough for lay terms. I do agree that poor samples can make for a lesser match but so what?

In the scenario in question the mother comes back 45%-55% (which I don't think is right, anyway--I think that relationship is only 1/16th). The son comes back 20%-30% and that's a non-match. Clearly not the rapist. The only way the son comes back with a higher match percentage than she has is if the father was her uncle or the rapist cousin.

But that's the problem right there. The number of people with an exact match is likely one - although identical twins are not unheard of by any means, and even identical triplets and quads were not uncommon in the early days of IVF.

But the number of 1/2 matches can be pretty large - lots of people have siblings of whom they are unaware, and many people don't know their fathers (even if they think they do); and there are likely a lot of men who have children they don't know about.

And it gets FAR worse from there. The number of plausible 1/4 matches is vast, and the number of those that are potentially completely unknown to the accused could be significant - the information that there is a 1/4 match is enough, perhaps, to help with an investigation, but surely also more than enough for reasonable doubt in a courtroom. And it gets exponentially worse from there.

And that's before we even think about the (non-zero) error rate.

An expert witness who says 'These samples are a 50% match for the accused's mother' may well be understood by a jury to be saying that he is one of only two people who might have committed the crime - but the reality is that he could be one of a dozen, or a score, very easily indeed.
 
Came across this article on the BBC. Was not familiar with the phrase but the method is certainly a winner in solving crimes. You get DNA samples from people in the area of the crime hoping to find similar DNA which narrows down the search for whodunnit. Pretty cool.

How familial DNA trapped a murderer for the first time

It involved DNA samples from a crime scene being passed to the National DNA Database in order to find very close matches, rather than exact matches. The theory was that some of these close matches might be related to the suspect, because they had such similar DNA. Police could then narrow down their search.
I am surprised you just found it.
Golden State Killer was found that way and it was big news.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer#Joseph_James_DeAngelo
 
But that's the problem right there. The number of people with an exact match is likely one - although identical twins are not unheard of by any means, and even identical triplets and quads were not uncommon in the early days of IVF.

But the number of 1/2 matches can be pretty large - lots of people have siblings of whom they are unaware, and many people don't know their fathers (even if they think they do); and there are likely a lot of men who have children they don't know about.

And it gets FAR worse from there. The number of plausible 1/4 matches is vast, and the number of those that are potentially completely unknown to the accused could be significant - the information that there is a 1/4 match is enough, perhaps, to help with an investigation, but surely also more than enough for reasonable doubt in a courtroom. And it gets exponentially worse from there.

And that's before we even think about the (non-zero) error rate.

An expert witness who says 'These samples are a 50% match for the accused's mother' may well be understood by a jury to be saying that he is one of only two people who might have committed the crime - but the reality is that he could be one of a dozen, or a score, very easily indeed.

What you're missing is that all those half or quarter matches simply mean leads to investigate, they clearly aren't the perp.
 
But that's the problem right there. The number of people with an exact match is likely one - although identical twins are not unheard of by any means, and even identical triplets and quads were not uncommon in the early days of IVF.

But the number of 1/2 matches can be pretty large - lots of people have siblings of whom they are unaware, and many people don't know their fathers (even if they think they do); and there are likely a lot of men who have children they don't know about.

And it gets FAR worse from there. The number of plausible 1/4 matches is vast, and the number of those that are potentially completely unknown to the accused could be significant - the information that there is a 1/4 match is enough, perhaps, to help with an investigation, but surely also more than enough for reasonable doubt in a courtroom. And it gets exponentially worse from there.

And that's before we even think about the (non-zero) error rate.

An expert witness who says 'These samples are a 50% match for the accused's mother' may well be understood by a jury to be saying that he is one of only two people who might have committed the crime - but the reality is that he could be one of a dozen, or a score, very easily indeed.

What you're missing is that all those half or quarter matches simply mean leads to investigate, they clearly aren't the perp.

That's correct.

barbos points out how the Golden state killer was identified using this method. There are other high profile cases pointed out at the link in the OP. If you've got the perp's DNA and a likely location, it's a method that works.
 
Yes, fractional match only means that you have a relative of a perpetrator. Perpetrator must have 100% match.
If police absolutely sure they have DNA of the criminal then it's almost certainty that they will find him.
Thanks to these companies.

The only problem is when criminals (or police) start to frame other people by planting their DNA into crime scenes.
 
Back
Top Bottom