German Federal Elections 2021

[Derec]

So Germany is voting today. After almost 16 years, Angela Merkel is not seeking the chancellorship. For most of her tenure, she helmed the Grand Coalition between her center-right CDU/CSU and center-left SPD. However, C?U made a mistake nominating Armin Laschert instead of much more charismatic Bavarian Minister-President (German term for state governor) Markus Söder.

So it seems that the left block will have the majority, unfortunately. This is the state of polls over time.

From spiegel.de

The SPD/Greens and far-left Linke would command 47% of the electorate, which will be enough for a majority, because parties with <5% do not get into the Bundestag (exceptions exist). Federal coalition with the Linke has been considered taboo so far, but it is questionable whether that will hold. Another possible coalition with a more comfortable majority would be "traffic light" coalition between red SPD, yellow FDP (free market classical liberals) and Greens. Less likely, but still mathematically possible would be "Jamaica" (black C?U, yellow FDP and Greens). It is also possible that C?U and SPD will continue the Grand Coalition. That moniker is from the time when the two parties were much bigger, and thus a coalition between the two comprised a lot more electorate and seats than any other coalition. For example, the first Merkel Grand Coalition in 2005 united almost 70% of the vote and more than 70% of seats.

Btw, this is the situation in the current Bundestag, after the election of 2017.

From Wikipedia.

 

[Elixir]

So it seems that the left block will have the majority, unfortunately

Spoken like the “liberal” you claim to be. Nothing like rooting for Nazis to confirm your liberalism!

 

[Derec]

So it seems that the left block will have the majority, unfortunately

Spoken like the “liberal” you claim to be. Nothing like rooting for Nazis to confirm your liberalism!

The left block that I was referribg to and which would have a mathematical majority (if polls hold) would include the Linke, which includes the succesors of East German communists. Nothing remotely liberal about them, which is why federal coalitions with the Linke have been anathema - until possibly now.

Another interesting vote in Germany is a referendum in Berlin (a city state, so the mayor has a state governor status) about expropriating landlords. Would that be "liberal" to you if it passes?

P.S.: I also never claimed to be a "liberal" as that word is understood in modern American parlance.

 

[Derec]

So SPD is biggest party, and Linke just barely made the 5% hurdle, although I think they were safe anyway because they should have at least 3 direct seats in the East.

View attachment 35468

Luckily, Red-Red-Green is just shy of a majority, and so the most likely outcome is a continuation of the C?U/SPD coalition but with the two parties reversed and with Olaf Scholz as Kanzler. Other coalitions would be possible, but most would rely on Greens and pro-business FDP agreeing on too many things. C?U/FDP/AfD would technically have a 3 seat majority, but the other two do not want to work with AfD because of their stance on migration.

Curve ball would be something like a C?U/FDP minority government with AfD voting for Laschert as Bundeskanzler and providing some support for legislation while not being part of the government and getting no ministers.

But nah, it's going to be Grand Coalition yet again ...

 

[Bomb#20]

So it seems that the left block will have the majority, unfortunately

Spoken like the “liberal” you claim to be. Nothing like rooting for Nazis to confirm your liberalism!

Nothing like equating all outside the left block with Nazis to confirm your comprehension of liberalism.

 

[TomC]

So it seems that the left block will have the majority, unfortunately

Spoken like the “liberal” you claim to be. Nothing like rooting for Nazis to confirm your liberalism!

Nothing like equating all outside the left block with Nazis to confirm your comprehension of liberalism.

OMG.
Hahaha!

That's so American.

Anybody left of McConnell is a Communist. Anybody right of Pelosi is a Fascist. Centrists, like Hillary Clinton, manage to be both Communists and Fascists at the same time. Just ask the internet.
Tom