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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Copernicus

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These days, we don't trust Russia because Russia has never been a team player
I actually agree. Russia is not a team player. Not YOUR team player. The team which invaded Iraq, which bombed Yugolsavia, the team which supported ISIS in order to topple Assad. The team which does not care about democracy when it suits them (Arab Spring)
Speaking of which, dumbass Assad does not get it, the only reason he was attacked by the West is ..... Russia and Iran. He should had cut ties with Russia and would have been fine as the rest of arab world.

It isn't clear where barbos got his ideas about history from, but they are largely skewed by the propaganda that he's been exposed to. Part of the problem is that history books were routinely rewritten during the Soviet period to reflect official doctrine, so a lot of the history of his country is still more accurately depicted in Western sources that preserved the true record. Here he confuses Serbia with Yugoslavia, and the Iraqi-dominated ISIS with the domestic Syrian rebel forces that were trying to overthrow Assad. ISIS was trying to overthrow all of the surrounding governments. Russia's main interest in that country was in keeping their naval base open there, giving them a naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea. Without Russia propping him up, Assad would probably no longer be in power.

And don't forget that your team also started WW1 and WW2.
And I don't mean Germany alone. I mean the whole damn team including WW1 "winners". So excuse me if I don't trust west's judgement when it comes to anything other than internal affairs.

Here, barbos ignores the  Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which actually started WWII by giving Hitler the freedom to invade Poland without having to worry about hostilities with Stalin's Soviet Union. The two countries just divided Poland, bringing France and Britain into the war. Stalin thought he was so in tight with Hitler, that he actually got caught flat-footed when Hitler took the blitzkrieg to his half of Poland. The US stayed out of it until Pearl Harbor and Hitler's subsequent declaration of war against the US for declaring war on its ally, Japan. The Soviet Union was actually on our "team" at the time the US joined the war, because we were supplying it with weapons and other supplies through Lend-Lease and other programs. Although barbos may know of these facts, he conveniently forgets them during his attempts to vilify the West and distract from Putin's naked aggression in Ukraine.

Another interesting historical fact of relevance here is Crimea. Crimea was originally part of the Ottoman Empire, but Russia annexed it by treaty after a successful campaign against the Ottomans. Russia had also annexed Ukraine, Belarus, and part of Poland through military conquest. After the Russian Revolution, those captive territories all broke away and declared independence from Russia. Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, and Crimea all became autonomous republics within the Soviet Union that were officially separate from Russia itself. Crimea was its own Soviet Socialist Republic and apart from the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic. IOW, neither territory was part of Russia per se during the Soviet period, but that was a sham, of course. Russia dominated the Soviet Empire while paying lip service to the equality of other national territories within its borders. After WWII, Stalin basically deported or murdered the indigenous Crimean Tatar population and moved in Russians and Ukrainians to occupy the peninsula. Crimea was downgraded from an autonomous republic to an oblast. A few years later Crimea was incorporated into the Ukrainian SSR by Khrushchev, which only made sense, given the land bridge from Ukraine to the peninsula. To this day, however, Russians have treated Crimea as if it were historically part of Russia. It was never fully a part of Russia. It was only occupied territory that had been forcibly annexed by the Russian Empire.
 

SLD

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Biden just said Putin will likely invade. Sanctions rarely work. It seems to me that they would have to be so severe as to be utterly devastating to the Russian economy, and they should be advertised well ahead of time and include such things as entire freeze in all Russian owned assets in the United States, a complete cut off of virtually all trade, including agriculture, and sanctions against anyone buying their oil. Nordstream 2 should be halted immediately and even halt further shipments of nordstream 1. Whatever, the sanctions cannot just be to Putin and his cronies, but to the entire Russian economy.
 

Copernicus

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Merkel had temporarily halted Nord Stream 2 over the Ukraine situation, but the current German government seems to be retreating from that position. Germany has invested heavily in it and is the end point for the pipeline. Their economy will be the primary beneficiary of the pipeline, and it needs the energy supplies more than many other countries. They know that Russia can, and probably will, use their dependency on Russian energy supplies to pressure (and possibly blackmail) them in the future, but they are in a difficult spot. A third of their energy supplies already come from Russia.

There is generally less support in Europe for economic sanctions, because the economic ties between Russia and individual EU members are closer. So it is much easier for the US to impose damaging sanctions in areas like banking and currency transactions. Sanctions against individuals don't work effectively, because Russian criminals, oligarchs, and corrupt officials have learned how to use proxies and other means to get around them. Moreover, Putin has been planning for this a long time, especially while Trump was a useful tool for Putin during his presidency. The 2014 invasion happened before Trump, and this one is threatening to happen after Trump. During the past 5 years, Putin is said to have put plans in place to cushion the shock of any economic sanctions that the US could bring to bear, at least for a while. So the threat of sanctions don't seem to scare him all that much.

I don't think that Putin thinks much beyond winning the military victory over Ukraine. It is difficult to see how a prolonged occupation of that country will work out well for him. If Russian troops leave, the local population is likely to revolt. If they stay, he is going to experience a lot of local resistance to keeping troops there for a long time. It will be a real mess, not to mention the international repercussions. The invasion will only help to strengthen the NATO alliance.
 

T.G.G. Moogly

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But the problem for Putin is that he has eliminated all opposition at home. He only hears the things he wants to hear. He will invade Ukraine but like Stalin and other Russian dictators won't feel resistance at home for some time. But it will come and he will leave.
 

barbos

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History mostly bores me. Usually about a bunch of men starting wars with each other.

The history that I was taught was that the US entered WWII after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The US joined WWI after the Germans kept attacking submarines and was trying to get Mexico to join forces with Germany.
Wow, I am "impressed". The average american I think thinks that US fought Soviets in WW2 and won.
That'd be an interesting poll to run. I doubt it'd be that many thought the US fought USSR though. If nothing else, pop culture helps remind us the Nazis were the bad guys.
Sure, but commies are bad too, so US fought both. Just ask people on the street.
 

Toni

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History mostly bores me. Usually about a bunch of men starting wars with each other.

The history that I was taught was that the US entered WWII after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The US joined WWI after the Germans kept attacking submarines and was trying to get Mexico to join forces with Germany.
Wow, I am "impressed". The average american I think thinks that US fought Soviets in WW2 and won.
That'd be an interesting poll to run. I doubt it'd be that many thought the US fought USSR though. If nothing else, pop culture helps remind us the Nazis were the bad guys.
Sure, but commies are bad too, so US fought both. Just ask people on the street.
I really have no idea who you think the 'average' American is.
 

Toni

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I really have no idea who you think the 'average' American is.
'average' American elected Trump. that's all you need to know about average American
The average American elected Biden.
Yes, barely and it's spelled Manchin :). And before that they elected Trump.
Manchin was elected to represent the state that ranks 41st in size and 40th in size of population, and near the bottom on most other metrics. So, you think most Americans live in WV?
 

Copernicus

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My guess? He will invade late Friday.
Because he knows western governments leave office at 4pm and don't come back until Monday morning?
I think that Zipr is just making a joke about the fact that late Friday is when people in the US tend to switch their attention span to snooze control mode as far as major news events go. Of course, that doesn't make sense in terms of Russia's time zone differences. Russia has 11 time zones.
 

barbos

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Deluded American with a german last (and first I think as well) name is unhappy about german reactance to harrras Russia with the same vigor US has.

This dumbass thinks that Nord Stream is not finished.
Also dumbass forgot about "Fuck the EU" incident.
 

Loren Pechtel

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All Russia asked is for Ukraine to be neutral and Russia even paid $250bil for that.
Then West supports fascist revolt and all of a sudden demands Russia to get the fuck off.

Whether you like it or not, but when it comes to foreign relations Russia is orders of magnitude cleaner than the West. And yet you try to paint Russia as the worst of the worst in that regard.
"Neutral" = controlled by a Russian puppet. Ukraine threw out the puppet and Putin got mad.
 

Loren Pechtel

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History mostly bores me. Usually about a bunch of men starting wars with each other.

The history that I was taught was that the US entered WWII after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The US joined WWI after the Germans kept attacking submarines and was trying to get Mexico to join forces with Germany.
Apparently it bores you too much--you've got it very wrong on WWI.
 

barbos

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All Russia asked is for Ukraine to be neutral and Russia even paid $250bil for that.
Then West supports fascist revolt and all of a sudden demands Russia to get the fuck off.

Whether you like it or not, but when it comes to foreign relations Russia is orders of magnitude cleaner than the West. And yet you try to paint Russia as the worst of the worst in that regard.
"Neutral" = controlled by a Russian puppet. Ukraine threw out the puppet and Putin got mad.
Non-neutral=controlled by a bunch a neocons from US.
And you are wrong anyway. For the most of their short history Russia controlled nothing in Ukraine. In fact it never really controlled anybody, not even Yanukovich. let alone other anti-russian cooks.
Otherwise why would they pay $250bil?
 

Copernicus

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All Russia asked is for Ukraine to be neutral and Russia even paid $250bil for that.
Then West supports fascist revolt and all of a sudden demands Russia to get the fuck off.

Whether you like it or not, but when it comes to foreign relations Russia is orders of magnitude cleaner than the West. And yet you try to paint Russia as the worst of the worst in that regard.
"Neutral" = controlled by a Russian puppet. Ukraine threw out the puppet and Putin got mad.
Non-neutral=controlled by a bunch a neocons from US.
And you are wrong anyway. For the most of their short history Russia controlled nothing in Ukraine. In fact it never really controlled anybody, not even Yanukovich. let alone other anti-russian cooks.
Otherwise why would they pay $250bil?
Again, barbos seems to be totally unaware of the history of his own country, which was just one of the autonomous republics in the Soviet Union. Ukraine was another, as was Belarus, and Crimea. (Stalin downgraded Crimea's status, but that came after WWII.) The reality, of course, is that Russia was the pig that was more equal than the other barnyard animals. (Barbos might not understand the reference, if he were to bother to read my posts again. :)) So he feels that Russia, by rights, actually owns the other former autonomous republics in that collapsed union. The reality was that it only existed by threat of force, and, when Gorbachev removed that threat, the union collapsed, taking Russian delusions of ownership with it. So, although Russia did control Ukraine in the past (indeed, had annexed it in the tsarist empire), it has been trying to reestablish that imperial domination ever since Putin came to assume control of the Russian Federation.
 

barbos

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So, now that Biden allowed minor invasion, Putin must decide on definition of minor.
I think 60K is minor. I mean 60k cyber hackers with kalashnikovs.
 

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It isn't clear where barbos got his ideas about history from, but they are largely skewed by the propaganda that he's been exposed to. Part of the problem is that history books were routinely rewritten during the Soviet period to reflect official doctrine, so a lot of the history of his country is still more accurately depicted in Western sources that preserved the true record.
This is good to keep in mind. I ran into this problem in the Philippines. Because of the education system, you could find yourself in a conversation with someone who knew absolutely nothing of geography or world history. It can be quite an impediment in conversation. I ran into similar problems trying to conduct business with the Amish. One has to be careful about the assumptions they might make in dealing with these folks.

Wondering about a comment I read about the number of Russians living in the Donbas, I ended up reading about “Little Russia”. The suppression of Ukrainian culture and language and the Holodomor. Not to insinuate it is vastly different than the Western version but I wonder how this history is presented in Russian schools.
 

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The suppression of Ukrainian culture and language and the Holodomor. Not to insinuate it is vastly different than the Western version but I wonder how this history is presented in Russian schools.
It was not presented at all in school during my time.
Don't know how it is now. But I read periodically about scandals about new history in ukrainian school books. Nazis are actively trying to rewrite history.
 

barbos

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Ukrainian historian with a hilarious last name outraged that someone dared to write that Odessa was founded by Russia.

His last name can be translated from to english as "Bullshitter" or "Liar"
You can't make this shit up.
 

Harry Bosch

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The suppression of Ukrainian culture and language and the Holodomor. Not to insinuate it is vastly different than the Western version but I wonder how this history is presented in Russian schools.
It was not presented at all in school during my time.
Don't know how it is now. But I read periodically about scandals about new history in ukrainian school books. Nazis are actively trying to rewrite history.
Clearly you are taught that the leaders (and even the teachers?!) are Nazis in Ukraine. Are you also taught that the people in Poland, Finland, Latvia and etc are lead by Nazis?
 

barbos

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Clearly you are taught that the leaders (and even the teachers?!) are Nazis in Ukraine. Are you also taught that the people in Poland, Finland, Latvia and etc are lead by Nazis?
No, I was not taught that. I merely observed the fact, hilarious fact at that.
A country which does not have a separate from Russia history is trying to separate itself from Russia. Imagine writing history of some US state (lets say Indiana) without mentioning United States.
 

Harry Bosch

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Clearly you are taught that the leaders (and even the teachers?!) are Nazis in Ukraine. Are you also taught that the people in Poland, Finland, Latvia and etc are lead by Nazis?
No, I was not taught that. I merely observed the fact, hilarious fact at that.
A country which does not have a separate from Russia history is trying to separate itself from Russia. Imagine writing history of some US state (lets say Indiana) without mentioning United States.
You observed the fact that Nazi's are teaching in Ukranian schools? I'd like to know more about that. And how do you define a "Nazi"?

Also interesting that you consider Ukraine to not have a separate history from Russia. Interesting read for you:


Is it your view that Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and etc. also do not "separate history from Russia"?
 

barbos

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Is it your view that Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and etc. also do not "separate history from Russia"?
These definitely have separate history from Russia.
Ukraine does not. Well, except last 7 years :) and even that is debatable.
It does not prevent new ukrainian historians to claim 300 thousands years old Ukraine. Yep, that's what some of the schoolbooks teach.

Why is Romania on the list? They have never been part of Russia. Same with Poland. some part of Poland and Russia have been occupied by each other but never as a whole.
 
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Toni

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History mostly bores me. Usually about a bunch of men starting wars with each other.

The history that I was taught was that the US entered WWII after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The US joined WWI after the Germans kept attacking submarines and was trying to get Mexico to join forces with Germany.
Apparently it bores you too much--you've got it very wrong on WWI.
More helpful if you actually told me what you think is the correct answer. It's been a few decades since I did history.

Edit: I googled it and really, my very brief one sentence recap was correct. Of course US entry into WWI and WWII was much more complicated than than one sentence for each would adequately address.
 

barbos

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History mostly bores me. Usually about a bunch of men starting wars with each other.

The history that I was taught was that the US entered WWII after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The US joined WWI after the Germans kept attacking submarines and was trying to get Mexico to join forces with Germany.
Apparently it bores you too much--you've got it very wrong on WWI.
More helpful if you actually told me what you think is the correct answer. It's been a few decades since I did history.
Short history of last 150 years:
Great Britain colonized/fucked half of the world over the seas
France colonized decent size shitload.
Spain got bigger shitload but lost most of it.
Germany got almost nothing and was not happy about it but kept it to itself.
Russia got exactly zilch and was happy about it. (border acquisitions are not colonies)

Eventually Germany grew up their navy and started to challenge GB status and colonies. WW1 started, Serbian incident was just an excuse, Russia was a side show which ended with revolution and bloodless loss of most Russian more recent acquisitions. Lenin is a fucking hero in Finland because he let them go. He let Baltic States go too but they are not that grateful because Stalin took them back later.

So British French and Germans were senselessly killing each other by all kinds of means until they got tired and Germany was formally declared a loser when US entered a war. Germany was "rewarded" with ridiculous and undeserved reparations. In reality all sides were fucking assholes and fucking losers.
Hence nazis! GB and France created conditions for rise of nazi in Germany and eventually WW2. French and british were pissing and pissing germans off until they voted for Hitler.

Reminds you of anything? I am talking about pissing off part.


In short, future EU countries were fucking assholes. Russia was not really participating much and had to clean up the mess future EU created in WW2.
Now EU is pissing off Russia. What could go wrong here?
 
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Toni

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History mostly bores me. Usually about a bunch of men starting wars with each other.

The history that I was taught was that the US entered WWII after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The US joined WWI after the Germans kept attacking submarines and was trying to get Mexico to join forces with Germany.
Apparently it bores you too much--you've got it very wrong on WWI.
More helpful if you actually told me what you think is the correct answer. It's been a few decades since I did history.
Short history of last 150 years:
Great Britain colonized/fucked half of the world over the seas
France colonized decent size shitload.
Spain got bigger shitload but lost most of it.
Germany got almost nothing and was not happy about it but kept it to itself.
Russia got exactly zilch and was happy about it. (border acquisitions are not colonies)

Eventually Germany grew up their navy and started to challenge GB status and colonies. WW1 started, Serbian incident was just an excuse, Russia was a side show which ended with revolution and bloodless loss of most Russian more recent acquisitions. Lenin is a fucking hero in Finland because he let them go. He let baltic States go too but they are not that grateful because Stalin took them back later.

So British French and Germans were senselessly killing each other by all kinds of means until they got tired and Germany was formally declared a loser when US entered a war. Germany was "rewarded" with ridiculous and undeserved reparations. In reality all sides were fucking assholes and fucking losers.
Hence nazis! GB and France created conditions for rise of nazi in Germany and eventually WW2. French and british were pissing and pissing germans off until they voted for Hitler.

Reminds you of anything? I am talking about pissing off part.
Sure, some of it is familiar (although from a different perspective). A strong point was made in my high school history class that the overly punitive reparations imposed upon Germany led to WWII. But none of that explains how 'you guys' by which I thought you meant the US since you were responding to Americans started either WW. I suspect we're talking past each other and I apologize for my part in any misunderstanding.
 

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I thought you meant the US since you were responding to Americans started either WW.
LOL, you just threw EU and british under the bus :)

Yes, US did not take part in starting WW1. But you did help with starting WW2.
 

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Ukrainian historian with a hilarious last name outraged that someone dared to write that Odessa was founded by Russia.

His last name can be translated from to english as "Bullshitter" or "Liar"
You can't make this shit up.
Actually, that you could.
 

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History mostly bores me. Usually about a bunch of men starting wars with each other.

The history that I was taught was that the US entered WWII after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The US joined WWI after the Germans kept attacking submarines and was trying to get Mexico to join forces with Germany.
Wow, I am "impressed". The average american I think thinks that US fought Soviets in WW2 and won.
That'd be an interesting poll to run. I doubt it'd be that many thought the US fought USSR though. If nothing else, pop culture helps remind us the Nazis were the bad guys.
Sure, but commies are bad too, so US fought both. Just ask people on the street.
I really have no idea who you think the 'average' American is.
It is obvious that neither does barbos.
 

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Having a history with someone is not a good reason to pursue a future with them.

Sometimes the relationship was just bad, and everyone knew it.

Sometimes countries just have to go their own way.

And in this case it's more the like of "we went on like, two dates, and now he keeps telling all his and my friends we're engaged. The psychopath showed up at my border with TROOPS, all like "we do annexation ceremony da?" And then that's when I called my neighbor to come over and tell him I'm not interested".
 

barbos

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Having a history with someone is not a good reason to pursue a future with them.

Sometimes the relationship was just bad, and everyone knew it.

Sometimes countries just have to go their own way.

And in this case it's more the like of "we went on like, two dates, and now he keeps telling all his and my friends we're engaged. The psychopath showed up at my border with TROOPS, all like "we do annexation ceremony da?" And then that's when I called my neighbor to come over and tell him I'm not interested".
Nobody asks Ukraine to pursue a future with Russia. All I am asking is to behave like decent human beings. They can go and fuck themselves, I don't care. I just want my money back. That would be decent thing for them to do. They can even ban, harass and ukrainize their russian population, who are technically free to leave that shithole.
All I want is my money back.
 
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barbos

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Same meaning as in russian. Very unfortunate name for a "historian"
 

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Having a history with someone is not a good reason to pursue a future with them.

Sometimes the relationship was just bad, and everyone knew it.

Sometimes countries just have to go their own way.

And in this case it's more the like of "we went on like, two dates, and now he keeps telling all his and my friends we're engaged. The psychopath showed up at my border with TROOPS, all like "we do annexation ceremony da?" And then that's when I called my neighbor to come over and tell him I'm not interested".
Nobody asks Ukraine to pursue a future with Russia. All I am asking is to behave like decent human beings. They can go and fuck themselves, I don't care. I just want my money back. That would be decent thing for them to do. They can even ban, harass and ukrainize their russian population. All I want is my money back.
Ukraine dosn't owe Russia anything. Russian company Gazprom was ordered to pay Ukrainian company Naftogaz some $3 billion by Stockholm arbitration. Gazprom already paid part of it, but they still owe some. Russia agreed to this. Putin agreed to this.

Russia owes Ukraine. Your country killed millions of Ukranians under Stalin. Stole their land in 2014. Now you want their water. Russia should pay Ukraine.
 

barbos

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Ukraine dosn't owe Russia anything.
Not true. over 25 years Gazprom and other oil government controlled companies gave Ukraine $250bil in the form of discounts. Belarus got $150bil


Russia owes Ukraine. Your country killed millions of Ukranians under Stalin. Stole their land in 2014. Now you want their water. Russia should pay Ukraine
Stalin was georgian and he killed russians too,
We have been over this million times. Nobody stole anything from Ukraine. They were merely "renting" Crimea on the condition of good behavior. The moment they threatened hanging Russians they lost their rent agreement, people voted and left.

So, $250bil and you can move all your NATO forces to Ukraine, I personally don't care. Russia has nukes. Russians in Ukraine can leave for Russia or even Europe.
 

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I thought you meant the US since you were responding to Americans started either WW.
LOL, you just threw EU and british under the bus :)

Yes, US did not take part in starting WW1. But you did help with starting WW2.
I’m not throwing anybody under the bus.
I’m not certain how responding to having a naval base bombed is helping to start a war that had been in progress for more than 2 years.
 

barbos

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I thought you meant the US since you were responding to Americans started either WW.
LOL, you just threw EU and british under the bus :)

Yes, US did not take part in starting WW1. But you did help with starting WW2.
I’m not throwing anybody under the bus.
I’m not certain how responding to having a naval base bombed is helping to start a war that had been in progress for more than 2 years.
I see you are not much of a student of history.
I will let others to educate you about that part.

And yes, you threw EU and british under the bus.
 
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