How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

When I read Russia was considering annexing parts of Eastern and Southern Ukraine rather than setting up independent republics, the first thing I thought was more nuclear saber rattling will ensue. It's nearly all the Kremlin has left. They should know by now the West and the world cannot succumb to nuclear blackmail. It is especially important that North Korea and Iran get this message. We will not tolerate this from an established nuclear power where mutually assured destruction is a possibility and we surely will not tolerate it from an upstart who's own destruction is the only assurance.
What would China and India think of a tactical nuclear strike by Russia on Ukraine? I'm not sure about China but India must already be thinking about where they will be getting their military hardware from. Their usual supplier, Russia is going to be hard pressed to fill orders going forward.

The Kremlin desires to make parts of Ukraine a permanent part of the Russian Federation. Well you better hurry up. A Ukrainian counterattack/offensive is sweeping down from Kharkiv toward Izyum. They need to cut the supply lines between Izyum and Belgorod. It would appear Russia is doing little to stop it. They continue to regroup and consolidate. All indications are they are tapped out as far as ground forces go and the ones that are there have no desire to fight, commanders and commanded alike. Further, about a third of the tanks, vehicles and artillery Russia has lost during the war hasn't been destroyed but has been abandoned or captured. So aside from the commitment from the West to continue to supply Ukraine with the tools it needs to take back their country, Ukrainian forces can attack Russian forces with their own weapons. No training required.

Meanwhile, Putin would be loathe to call this anything other than a "special military operation" as that would give him even less wiggle room in calling a defeat anything other than a defeat. So, hurry up and call parts of Ukraine liberated and now part of the Russian Federation. Then call any further offensive actions by Ukraine an attack on the same. So this is Part 1 of Plan C.

Ukraine doesn't care what Russia calls it. Ukraine does not have to play by Russia's rules. Russia has made little progress in the East or South lately. The tide is turning. It appears Russia has little left to fight with. They can take no ground so they have thrown what they do have left at Odesa in their last pitiful attempt to appear to be making advances.

The only way Ukraine can fail is if we fail Ukraine.

 

[steve_bank]

It is not just Ukraine. Putin has said many tims his goal is to retore the old Soviet bloc and all its imagined glory.

At fer invading Ukraine he demanded all former Soviet client states who joined NATO to leave it.

To me he is looking like a brutal murderous mad Roman emporer of the past.

 

[Copernicus]

Ukraine appears to have broken the siege of Kharkiv for now, and Russian forces are in retreat to regroup. Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO is now showing cracks.

Russian forces withdraw far from Kharkiv – mayor​

Also, Mitch McConnell has shown up with a small flock of Republicans in Kyiv to show their support and repair their image as somewhat opposed to helping Ukraine.

McConnell, GOP senators meet Zelenskyy in surprise Kyiv stop​

 

[pood]

So, let’s see.

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and made a lightning strike toward Kyiv intending to overrun it in a couple of days. Instead they got their ass handed to them and had to withdraw after committing a bunch of atrocities.

Now the same thing has happened in Kharkiv.

They have not been able to take a single major city. They have suffered enormous losses of men and materiel. More Russian soldiers have been killed in this debacle than the Soviets lost in eight years in Afghanistan.

The Ukrainians sank their flagship cruiser Moskva. Russia is running out of missiles. Most of the world has sanctioned their economy, which is buckling under the weight. Many Russian soldiers refuse to fight. Some of them frag their superiors. Nine or ten top Russian generals have been killed. And on and on and on.

What say comrade Barbos about Mad Vlad’s “special military operation”?

“Everything is going according to plan!”

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukraine is a magic land. Where Russian tanks are turned into lollipops!

 

[Copernicus]

So, let’s see.

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and made a lightning strike toward Kyiv intending to overrun it in a couple of days. Instead they got their ass handed to them and had to withdraw after committing a bunch of atrocities.

Now the same thing has happened in Kharkiv.

They have not been able to take a single major city. They have suffered enormous losses of men and materiel. More Russian soldiers have been killed in this debacle than the Soviets lost in eight years in Afghanistan.

The Ukrainians sank their flagship cruiser Moskva. Russia is running out of missiles. Most of the world has sanctioned their economy, which is buckling under the weight. Many Russian soldiers refuse to fight. Some of them frag their superiors. Nine or ten top Russian generals have been killed. And on and on and on.

What say comrade Barbos about Mad Vlad’s “special military operation”?

“Everything is going according to plan!”

What can he say other than to simply repeat the news and rumors that he reads on his news sites? I'm not surprise that he has stayed away so much. After bragging about how Russia would quickly conquer and "denazify" most of Ukraine, he has had to backtrack, admit some failures, and find ways to explain away the largescale attacks on civilian targets, not to mention the reports of horrific atrocities in territories left by retreating Russian troops.

I don't see barbos as an effective apologist for Russian failures, but westerners still have full access to what the Russian media say. Google translate actually does a pretty good job on Russian. I like to read both the English versions and Russian versions on some other their most popular new sites. RT is really tailor-made for foreign consumption, but there is also a Russian version. I found the following interesting RT piece on how they want to interpret popular attitudes in the West about the war. It is extremely deceptive, to say the least. What is interesting is that I searched for and could not find an equivalent story in the Russian version, although it was prominently featured in the English version. The likely reason is that the English version is designed to provide talking points for those in the West who might be more inclined to support Russia's side of the war.

RT:

What does the West really think about the Ukrainian conflict?​

As a Russian who knows English and has access to at least some Western news media, barbos can see that the RT version is really disingenuous, but I doubt that he would want to try to address such issues. I suspect that he mostly just lurks here these days and occasionally comes out to take pokes at Ukraine, the West, and occasional news stories.

 

[steve_bank]

If there is any truth to the reporting the Russian army is more like a brutal plundering mob killing and stealing. Perhaps it is a refection of Russian education or the lack of it.

I wonder what te education is of the averageyiung Russian soldier.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Until Ukraine has capability to launch their own offensives (which may take months), it has to succeed to defeat the attackers every time, Russia only has to succeed once. And while this was going on, Russia took Popasna and maybe another village North of it, and is moving artillery in range to reach Zaporizhzhia. It's not going well.

I think this will end with either Russia annexing large swaths of Ukraine, or a nuclear exchange.

Ukraine has driven Russia back in many places. A single Russian success doesn't mean they win the war.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine may not win the war, but they will win the Eurovison Song Contest for sure.

Called it.

 

[Copernicus]

Ukraine may not win the war, but they will win the Eurovison Song Contest for sure.

Called it.

And I posted their winning performance here. This song is about a mother, but it has taken on national significance in the war effort. Only one band member did not attend Eurovision for this, because he decided to join the military instead. The others had to get special permission to leave the country to do the performance, because men of military age are not allowed to leave.

What music are you listening to right now? (Warning: Lotsa videos)

iidb.org

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine may not win the war, but they will win the Eurovison Song Contest for sure.

Called it.

And I posted their winning performance here. This song is about a mother, but it has taken on national significance in the war effort. Only one band member did not attend Eurovision for this, because he decided to join the military instead. The others had to get special permission to leave the country to do the performance, because men of military age are not allowed to leave.

What music are you listening to right now? (Warning: Lotsa videos)

iidb.org

They would've won even if their contestant was a pack of screaming ferrets.

Ukrainian entry for 2007 is unforgettable too.

 

[Copernicus]

...They would've won even if their contestant was a pack of screaming ferrets.

Ukrainian entry for 2007 is unforgettable too...

Actually, the 2007 entry is pretty awful, and I'm sorry that Finland's goth rock group, Rasmus, didn't win with Jezebel, Jayjay. Their entry wasn't bad, but I still think that Ukraine's entry was much better.



BTW, my sentimental favorite was France's Breton group, because I have spent a lot of time on the Breton language. They came in 24 out of 25, and I don't think that they could have won even if Russia were invading Brittany. Kalusha did a really good job with the Ukrainian entry.

 

[Jayjay]

Lavrov strikes again:



His point, of course, is that westerners are hypocrites because they don't care about conflicts in Africa or the Middle East. This kind of rhetoric will resonate with some people.

But it's bullshit. Instead of saying "look at the awful things USA/NATO/The West is doing, we would never do this", their message is "why can't we get away with the same stuff you guys are doing?"

 

[TV and credit cards]

Or we are numb to crisis in Africa and war in the Middle East so they don't make the news much and consequently don't crack the top five things to worry about.

Worldwide implications of the crisis/conflict also come into play.
That Russia is likely to devolve into a big fucking North Korea. That NATO is stronger than ever. That the EU is turning to permanently divest itself from Russian energy.
And some of the more hopeful among us lose sleep excited that Putin may blow his brains out, something akin to a human being will become president of Russia, and Russia may even look to do what Ukraine has done and rid itself of nukes.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's heartening to hear Ruskie gangster lieutenants telling Finland and Sweden that they are making a "grave mistake" joining NATO. I give those Russian propagandists credit. They can shit their pants till it fills their shoes and still tell you they're all fine. Even the mob doesn't work like this. It's just so damn interesting watching the fear stricken do their master's bidding. Slaves have more honor.

If there was ever a Russian ship with a brave crew, that ship sailed and sank a long time ago. I kinda pity those poor groveling fucks.

And there are lots of articles about the Russian Hitler's health, even stories about coups underway. All good stuff.

 

[Elixir]

there are lots of articles about the Russian Hitler's health, even stories about coups underway. All good stuff.

Yeah, I mentioned again to Mrs Elixir this morning, that one day soon we will wake up to a dead Pootey. She’s still skeptical. Doesn’t really know anything about it but she is uncannily intuitive.

 

[steve_bank]

Or we are numb to crisis in Africa and war in the Middle East so they don't make the news much and consequently don't crack the top five things to worry about.

Worldwide implications of the crisis/conflict also come into play.
That Russia is likely to devolve into a big fucking North Korea. That NATO is stronger than ever. That the EU is turning to permanently divest itself from Russian energy.
And some of the more hopeful among us lose sleep excited that Putin may blow his brains out, something akin to a human being will become president of Russia, and Russia may even look to do what Ukraine has done and rid itself of nukes.

To put it crudely the mid east is a shit hole. Religious and ethnic factions and tribalism. Peole are intent on slaughtering each other incapable of compromise. Ethiopia. Sudan.

One ray of hope is the apparent normalization of relations between Arabs and Israel. I expect it mostly about the common enemy Iran. In terms of wetern liberal rights the regoin is dismal. Iraq fell apart without a dictator. Meddling in Syria created a disater.

Iran is rapid in their intent to detroy Israel and Saudi Arabia. Whatever criticisms there are Israel is he one bright spot in the region. They hae a democracy with rule of law and rights within Israel. It is not a theocracy.

Plaestinns shit on each other.

 

[marc]

Well, the punishments to Russia are getting more severe. McDonalds is pulling out entirely! They are selling off all their stores, (which will not be able to use their name, logo, or menu anymore) The surprising thing is they have apparently been paying their employees even as they were closed. Good for them!

Flashback to 1990 when they first moved in:

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is even worse than that. Denny's promises to open 500 restaurants in Russia.

 

[Copernicus]

Well, the punishments to Russia are getting more severe. McDonalds is pulling out entirely! They are selling off all their stores, (which will not be able to use their name, logo, or menu anymore) The surprising thing is they have apparently been paying their employees even as they were closed. Good for them!

Flashback to 1990 when they first moved in:

I visited that building in 1997 while on a business trip for my employer, Boeing. Their headquarters was on the fifth floor and McDonald's was at ground level. A lot of Western companies had big plans to expand in Russia during the 1990s. Then Putin arrived and started looking for ways to reclaim what he saw as the glorious Soviet legacy. It will take Russia a long time to attract all of that foreign investment back, if it ever does come back.

 

[bilby]

which will not be able to use their name, logo, or menu anymore

Why? What's stopping them?

I can't imagine the Russian authorities rushing to clamp down on any violations of McD's intellectual property rights...

 

[Jayjay]

Maybe they'll rename it McDonetsk's as a consolation prize for failing to take the Donetsk oblast in Ukraine.

 

[steve_bank]

One way to cripple Putin and his elite is to cut off the supply of Viagra.

Putin will just rename MacDonald's MacIvan's. Big Mac become a Big Vlad.

Putin said he woud just appropriate any foreign business that threatend to pull ot.

I'd say opening Denny's in Russia would be part of the sanctions.

 

[marc]

which will not be able to use their name, logo, or menu anymore

Why? What's stopping them?

I can't imagine the Russian authorities rushing to clamp down on any violations of McD's intellectual property rights...

True, the buyer could just ignore that part of the deal and put up knock off signs after they leave.

They are already producing Komi-Cola

Russians Begin Production Of 'Komi-Cola' After Coca-Cola Leaves

Komi-Cola is produced in Syktyvkar brewery, in the province of Komi. Hence the name. The logo, on the other hand...

crooksandliars.com

 

[TV and credit cards]

Damn Vlad. You might even get Switzerland to redefine neutrality. The list of accomplishments this man is piling up is unparalleled.
I reckon Switzerland's definition of neutrality is going to be about as true as how Japan defines their commitment not to maintain land, sea, or air forces.

Analysis-Neutral Switzerland leans closer to NATO in response to Russia

 

[Loren Pechtel]

To put it crudely the mid east is a shit hole. Religious and ethnic factions and tribalism. Peole are intent on slaughtering each other incapable of compromise. Ethiopia. Sudan.

Exactly. We don't care about the mess in such places because there's no good answer. Any attempt to help just gets exploited by the other side because both sides are determined to get the whole pie for themselves. Intervention will change the flavor of the evil but that's all.

One ray of hope is the apparent normalization of relations between Arabs and Israel. I expect it mostly about the common enemy Iran. In terms of wetern liberal rights the regoin is dismal. Iraq fell apart without a dictator. Meddling in Syria created a disater.

I don't have much hope there. The war in East Asia is simply too useful a bogeyman to them. So long as someone else will carry the torch they're fine with quietly getting along with Israel, but someone's got to keep fighting the war. Furthermore, the backers need to avoid too much coexistence, that would allow the standard of living of the Palestinians to rise too much and thus much harder to keep driving towards war.

Iran is rapid in their intent to detroy Israel and Saudi Arabia. Whatever criticisms there are Israel is he one bright spot in the region. They hae a democracy with rule of law and rights within Israel. It is not a theocracy.

Plaestinns shit on each other.

Yeah. While Israel isn't exactly a good guy they're way, way above the mess around them. And it's the Palestinians that ensure the problem continues--every attempt to be moderate turns out bad for Israel, thus they have little motive to control their radical element. They're going to be blamed whether they are at fault or not, the political will doesn't exist to marginalize their nuts.

 

[steve_bank]

Komi-cola. does it go well with vodka?

Looks like Putin is getting his wish. Russian is returning to the good old days of a closed Soviet economy. They were never able to make a decent car or commercial jet. Or televisions. Or semiconductors. Or agriculture.

After te sanctions after Crimea it wa reported it was having an effect on Russian nutrition. A lack of European foodstuffs.

The Soviets never deloped agriculture that provided nutritional diversity.

We are watching in real time as a major country, Russia, is self destructing.

Georgia was getting corruption under control, developing rule of lsw. attacting foreign investment, and growing econonmically.

Putin did his best to crush it.

Ukraine kicks out Soviet puppets, works to reign in corruption, and grows economically.

Putin tries to crushed it. It is all coming down to Russian self destructing because of the vanity and insanity of one man.

 

[Jayjay]

Palestinian problem is that they have no proper institutions, no sovereign country, and no leaders worth a damn. The choice is between corrupt PLO and religious terrorists, both with their own agenda that has nothing to do with what's good for the Palestinian people. That of course is fine by Israel, who can use that as an excuse to ultimately push them out of West Bank entirely.

It's probably too late to save Palestinians, but if they were smart, they would look at Zelensky very closely and try to duplicate that.

 

[steve_bank]

Palestinian problem is that they have no proper institutions, no sovereign country, and no leaders worth a damn. The choice is between corrupt PLO and religious terrorists, both with their own agenda that has nothing to do with what's good for the Palestinian people. That of course is fine by Israel, who can use that as an excuse to ultimately push them out of West Bank entirely.

It's probably too late to save Palestinians, but if they were smart, they would look at Zelensky very closely and try to duplicate that.

You have it backwards. They are unable to govern themselves.

There was a civil war between Fatah and Hamas among Palestinians having nothing to do with Israel. Free elections are not possible and depending on which side wins the other does not acquiesce. It is tribal.

Jordan at one point annexed the West Bank leading to a civil war between Palestinins and Lordan.

There is also Iranian funded terrorism.

I once lookd at all the aid that gas gone to the Palestinians. A lot of money from the USA, Europe, and Arabs. It all disappeared with no mterial result. Yasar Arafat who went around in military fatigues died a rich man never holding a job.

Even without Israel the region would be a mess.

Egypt closed its border with Gaza before Isreal closed its borders.

It is politically incorrect to criticize cultures. Culture does natter. Suadi Arabia is living an anachronistic achaic system hostile to wetern freedoms abd values. It is a modern oppressive version of a medieval monarchy. It sucks and you could not pay me to go there.

There I said it, Arab culture sucks. Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

 

[Elixir]

Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

They’re STILL doing that, just not officially.
Can you say “bone saw”?

 

[lpetrich]

Surrender of Azovstal Leaves Heroes of Mariupol to Face Putin’s Twisted Justice
"Hundreds of fighters, many severely wounded, bussed into Russian-held territory to await potential prisoner swap."

Hundreds of Ukrainian fighters trapped for more than two months in the vast Azovstal steel works have surrendered to their Russian besiegers after their commanders finally called time on the defence of Mariupol.

A total of 264 soldiers, 53 of them badly wounded, were taken in a convoy of buses to two towns held by Russian-backed rebels in the Donetsk area, Ukrainian officials said Tuesday. It is unclear how many more are left in the steelworks, where as many as 1,000 fighters had been holed up in a network of underground tunnels and caverns in a medieval siege.

The decision to evacuate them, announced overnight by President Volodymyr Zelensky, allows Russia to finally claim victory in the battle for Mariupol ...

 

[steve_bank]

Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

They’re STILL doing that, just not officially.
Can you say “bone saw”?

There used to be video of beheading on the net. People come to watch.

 

[Elixir]

Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

They’re STILL doing that, just not officially.
Can you say “bone saw”?

There used to be video of beheading on the net. People come to watch.

"People" are backward savages.

 

[steve_bank]

Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

They’re STILL doing that, just not officially.
Can you say “bone saw”?

There used to be video of beheading on the net. People come to watch.

"People" are backward savages.

I doubt you and I have a future in politics.

 

[bilby]

Palestinian problem is that they have no proper institutions, no sovereign country, and no leaders worth a damn. The choice is between corrupt PLO and religious terrorists, both with their own agenda that has nothing to do with what's good for the Palestinian people. That of course is fine by Israel, who can use that as an excuse to ultimately push them out of West Bank entirely.

It's probably too late to save Palestinians, but if they were smart, they would look at Zelensky very closely and try to duplicate that.

You have it backwards. They are unable to govern themselves.

There was a civil war between Fatah and Hamas among Palestinians having nothing to do with Israel. Free elections are not possible and depending on which side wins the other does not acquiesce. It is tribal.

Jordan at one point annexed the West Bank leading to a civil war between Palestinins and Lordan.

There is also Iranian funded terrorism.

I once lookd at all the aid that gas gone to the Palestinians. A lot of money from the USA, Europe, and Arabs. It all disappeared with no mterial result. Yasar Arafat who went around in military fatigues died a rich man never holding a job.

Even without Israel the region would be a mess.

Egypt closed its border with Gaza before Isreal closed its borders.

It is politically incorrect to criticize cultures. Culture does natter. Suadi Arabia is living an anachronistic achaic system hostile to wetern freedoms abd values. It is a modern oppressive version of a medieval monarchy. It sucks and you could not pay me to go there.

There I said it, Arab culture sucks. Up through the 80s-90s Saudi Arabia was beheading people.

The USA still has the death penalty in many places, so perhaps you should move out of your glass house before you start hurling that particular rock.

There's nothing more civilised or less barbaric about lethal injections than beheadings.

 

[Patooka]

You have it backwards. They are unable to govern themselves.

There was a civil war between Fatah and Hamas among Palestinians having nothing to do with Israel. Free elections are not possible and depending on which side wins the other does not acquiesce. It is tribal.

If you go to Liverpool, face north than real subtle like turn left you'll be facing an island (not spelled that way) of white people who had the exact same arguments thrown at them for a very long time. I'm talking at least 2-3 years of the rest of the world saying, "They fight amongst themselves, they can't govern themselves, they're terrorists funded by other nations, their culture is one of death" etc.

 

[Jayjay]

Palestinian problem is that they have no proper institutions, no sovereign country, and no leaders worth a damn. The choice is between corrupt PLO and religious terrorists, both with their own agenda that has nothing to do with what's good for the Palestinian people. That of course is fine by Israel, who can use that as an excuse to ultimately push them out of West Bank entirely.

It's probably too late to save Palestinians, but if they were smart, they would look at Zelensky very closely and try to duplicate that.

You have it backwards. They are unable to govern themselves.

There was a civil war between Fatah and Hamas among Palestinians having nothing to do with Israel. Free elections are not possible and depending on which side wins the other does not acquiesce. It is tribal.

Israel isn't the only reason for Palestinian failure. But it is one reason. And Israel has no incentive to change that, because it wants the land that Palestinians are living on.

The analogy to Russia-Ukraine conflict is similar in the sense that Russia wants Ukraine to be a failed state, so that they can justify their invasion. It has no interest in actually fixing the problems it alleges Ukraine has (nazis, corruption, oppression of ethnic Russians, whatever) because those are the casus belli for the war and for Russian annexation of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Of course the analogy also fails in many regards. Palestinians have no viable state, Ukraine does. Palestinians are divided like you said, Ukrainians are united. Palestinians are occupied and have been since the beginning, Ukraine is mostly not occupied, and the territories Russia has de facto annexed are from 2022 and 2014, not from half a century ago. It's a poor match and there's no way any sane country would pour weapons to Palestine like they do to Ukraine. But if Palestinians want to look at how to get western people and politicians on their side, they'd do better emulating Zelensky than Arafat.

 

[Jayjay]

Surrender of Azovstal Leaves Heroes of Mariupol to Face Putin’s Twisted Justice
"Hundreds of fighters, many severely wounded, bussed into Russian-held territory to await potential prisoner swap."

Hundreds of Ukrainian fighters trapped for more than two months in the vast Azovstal steel works have surrendered to their Russian besiegers after their commanders finally called time on the defence of Mariupol.

A total of 264 soldiers, 53 of them badly wounded, were taken in a convoy of buses to two towns held by Russian-backed rebels in the Donetsk area, Ukrainian officials said Tuesday. It is unclear how many more are left in the steelworks, where as many as 1,000 fighters had been holed up in a network of underground tunnels and caverns in a medieval siege.

The decision to evacuate them, announced overnight by President Volodymyr Zelensky, allows Russia to finally claim victory in the battle for Mariupol ...

Russian negotiator and member of Duma is calling for the death penalty to the captured fighters:

Russian lawmaker wants Ukraine’s Azovstal fighters to get death penalty

Ukrainian soldiers, some severely wounded, surrendered Monday after military chiefs asked them to save their lives.

theprint.in

I think these guys are not going to be used for a prisoner swap. At least some of them will be put to mock "war crimes trials" and executed. Russia has been building up Azov fighters for being the nastiest of nasty nazis that caused the whole war, so they can't just treat them like regular soldiers. At best, Russia will try to milk bigger concessions from Ukraine for their freedom. Maybe the release of Putin's pal Viktor Medvechuck?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think these guys are not going to be used for a prisoner swap. At least some of them will be put to mock "war crimes trials" and executed. Russia has been building up Azov fighters for being the nastiest of nasty nazis that caused the whole war, so they can't just treat them like regular soldiers. At best, Russia will try to milk bigger concessions from Ukraine for their freedom. Maybe the release of Putin's pal Viktor Medvechuck?

That would be Putin fucking up again, making Ukraine even more of a problem going forward.

 

[Jayjay]

I think these guys are not going to be used for a prisoner swap. At least some of them will be put to mock "war crimes trials" and executed. Russia has been building up Azov fighters for being the nastiest of nasty nazis that caused the whole war, so they can't just treat them like regular soldiers. At best, Russia will try to milk bigger concessions from Ukraine for their freedom. Maybe the release of Putin's pal Viktor Medvechuck?

That would be Putin fucking up again, making Ukraine even more of a problem going forward.

If the invasion, occupation, massacres, destruction of infrastructure, bombing of cities, denial of Ukraine as a real country, and all the other shit Russia has been up to for the past two months hasn't already done the trick, making the Azov fighters martyrs will hardly make a difference.

I don't see how Russia could possible let them go, at least not until the end of the war. Anyone from Mariupol who is released will be hailed as a national hero in Ukraine and abroad, and most certainly would be used in propaganda against Russia when they tell horrid tales of their treatment during captivity. It's ironic that the attempt at "denazification" of Ukraine has made a nazi-founded militia more popular than ever.

 

[Elixir]

I have no idea how "the west" should respond, because I can't understand what - if anything - Russia figures to gain by this.
My suspicion is that there is little interest in conquering and occupying Ukraine, and the whole charade is a distractive display of nationalism, by which Putin perhaps hopes to elevate his own domestic standing, which has reportedly been suffering of late.

Projecting again? No one in Russia considers it a great idea.

Putin does not need to invade anyone. All he needs is to start North Stream 2 and wait until all contracts with Ukrainian pipelines expire.
Ukraine and US, on the other hand, realize that they need some drastic shit to prevent that.

Above is from the early days of the thread prior to the invasion. Interesting, particularly the last sentence. So ironic how Putler himself provided the blundering, abusive invasion that put the quietus on NS2 and a whole lot more. And little wonder that the poster has gone dark.

 

[lpetrich]

NATO talks with Finland, Sweden falter but will continue | AP News

NATO envoys failed to reach a consensus Wednesday on whether to start membership talks with Finland and Sweden, diplomats said, as Turkey renewed its objections to the two Nordic countries joining.

The envoys met at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels after Finland and Sweden’s ambassadors submitted written applications to join the military organization, in a move that marks one of the biggest geopolitical ramifications of Russia’s war on Ukraine — and which could rewrite Europe’s security map.

 

[steve_bank]

All things considered as it is Turkey shoud not be part of NATO.

 

[Jayjay]

All things considered as it is Turkey shoud not be part of NATO.

It was admitted at a time when it was run by the military that kept religious nutters out of power. I can see how it made sense back then, given the Soviet threat and Turkey's strategic position.

But now, Erdogan has dismantled the old guard and has appointed himself into a perpetual dictator, much like Putin in Russia. But Erdogan isn't half as smart as Putin. The Turkish economy is in the crapper, and it's involved in perpetual ethnic war against he Kurds inside and outside of its borders. And now, Turkish approval is needed to accede Sweden and Finland to NATO... so of course Erdogan will throw a wrench into the process and try to milk concessions not just from the candidate members, but from the US.

 

[steve_bank]

All things considered as it is Turkey shoud not be part of NATO.

It was admitted at a time when it was run by the military that kept religious nutters out of power. I can see how it made sense back then, given the Soviet threat and Turkey's strategic position.

But now, Erdogan has dismantled the old guard and has appointed himself into a perpetual dictator, much like Putin in Russia. But Erdogan isn't half as smart as Putin. The Turkish economy is in the crapper, and it's involved in perpetual ethnic war against he Kurds inside and outside of its borders. And now, Turkish approval is needed to accede Sweden and Finland to NATO... so of course Erdogan will throw a wrench into the process and try to milk concessions not just from the candidate members, but from the US.

I think he has been buying Russian weapons.

 

[Jayjay]

All things considered as it is Turkey shoud not be part of NATO.

It was admitted at a time when it was run by the military that kept religious nutters out of power. I can see how it made sense back then, given the Soviet threat and Turkey's strategic position.

But now, Erdogan has dismantled the old guard and has appointed himself into a perpetual dictator, much like Putin in Russia. But Erdogan isn't half as smart as Putin. The Turkish economy is in the crapper, and it's involved in perpetual ethnic war against he Kurds inside and outside of its borders. And now, Turkish approval is needed to accede Sweden and Finland to NATO... so of course Erdogan will throw a wrench into the process and try to milk concessions not just from the candidate members, but from the US.

I think he has been buying Russian weapons.

Turkey bought S-400 missile system from Russia a while back, and that put it on US sanction list. Personally I think that US should just be more flexible and let Turkey keep it. But a more likely scenario is that the US will ease some of the sanctions, maybe let Turkey back into the F-35 program or promise to sell it Patriot systems in exchange for Turkey either selling the S-400 or not activating it. I don't really get what the problem is for a NATO country to have some Russian-made hardware... maybe Eastern European NATO members still do.

Ironically, the US sanctions are what drove Turkey to develop its own Bayraktar drones which Ukraine has been able to use very successfully against Russia.

 

[Copernicus]

It would be foolish to try to kick Turkey out of NATO, since it controls the Bosporus and has the second largest military force in NATO. It is too bad that Erdogan is an authoritarian who has managed to dismantle much of what secular democratic system that the country once had, but the last thing that region of the world needs is an alliance between Turkey and Russia. Erdogan uses that fact to get away with his shenanigans. Orban in Hungary plays a similar game.

 

[Elixir]

It would be foolish to try to kick Turkey out of NATO, since it controls the Bosporus and has the second largest military force in NATO. It is too bad that Erdogan is an authoritarian who has managed to dismantle much of what secular democratic system that the country once had, but the last thing that region of the world needs is an alliance between Turkey and Russia. Erdogan uses that fact to get away with his shenanigans. Orban in Hungary plays a similar game.

I'm not sure that putting Hungary and Turkey on the same side as Russia is such a terrible idea. One thing we should have learned from Ukraine is that the size of an army does not directly translate into an effective deployable force. I suspect that there would be significant rifts between those three powers, and that their ability to act in full concert would depend entirely upon their complete submission to the Russian Pig. Would Orman and Erdogan allow themselves to be seen as totally subservient to Putler?

 

[Copernicus]

It would be foolish to try to kick Turkey out of NATO, since it controls the Bosporus and has the second largest military force in NATO. It is too bad that Erdogan is an authoritarian who has managed to dismantle much of what secular democratic system that the country once had, but the last thing that region of the world needs is an alliance between Turkey and Russia. Erdogan uses that fact to get away with his shenanigans. Orban in Hungary plays a similar game.

I'm not sure that putting Hungary and Turkey on the same side as Russia is such a terrible idea. One thing we should have learned from Ukraine is that the size of an army does not directly translate into an effective deployable force. I suspect that there would be significant rifts between those three powers, and that their ability to act in full concert would depend entirely upon their complete submission to the Russian Pig. Would Orman and Erdogan allow themselves to be seen as totally subservient to Putler?

I think that both men are opportunists and will go with whichever side they think is in their long term interests. They will play one side off against the other in order to achieve their own ends. From Erdogan's perspective, his war with the PKK is important to his image within Turkey, so he is using his leverage with NATO and the West to help him. Buying that missile system from Russia was part of his strategy, and that is just a small sample of the mischief he can get into.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It would be foolish to try to kick Turkey out of NATO, since it controls the Bosporus and has the second largest military force in NATO. It is too bad that Erdogan is an authoritarian who has managed to dismantle much of what secular democratic system that the country once had, but the last thing that region of the world needs is an alliance between Turkey and Russia. Erdogan uses that fact to get away with his shenanigans. Orban in Hungary plays a similar game.

I'm not sure that putting Hungary and Turkey on the same side as Russia is such a terrible idea. One thing we should have learned from Ukraine is that the size of an army does not directly translate into an effective deployable force. I suspect that there would be significant rifts between those three powers, and that their ability to act in full concert would depend entirely upon their complete submission to the Russian Pig. Would Orman and Erdogan allow themselves to be seen as totally subservient to Putler?

Subservient like Lukashenko? Kicking them out can only worsen the relationship. Better to at least keep them corralled.