How would a new civil war play out?

[Derec]

if authoritarian rabble enact violence to try to push their ideological views, the reaction of the rest of the country will be to flinch away from them (at best) and possibly placate them (at worst) while waiting for them to tire themselves out and generally finding any and every possible excuse to justify their behavior or marginalize it as some fringe case that shouldn't be paid attention to.

The latter is exactly what has been happening in response to left wing violence as part of #BLM and Antifa movements.
The violent left has been placated (e.g. anti-police and pro-crime measures enacted in many cities) while the mainstream media has been bending themselves into pretzels trying to pretend that #BLM riots have been "peaceful protests" even amidst the looting, vandalism, arsons etc.

any sort of confrontational push-back against authoritarian violence would be immediately decried as extreme left terrorism and proclaimed "the real problem" (this isn't speculation, see ANTIFA) and there would be zero support for any such response.

Most of the violence in recent years has come from the far left. Ferguson, Baltimore, Charlotte, and then in 2020 all over the country.
Before that there were riots in Seattle in 1999 and Los Angeles in 1992.
The 1960s through 1980s also saw widespread leftist violence by groups like Black Liberation Army and Weather Underground who overtly sought to overthrow the US government. An all-female offshoot of WU even bombed the Senate in 1983 (Bill Clinton shamefully commuted their sentences.)

If there is the next civil war in the US, the violence will be started by the far left. And the media will pretend that it's just "peaceful protests".

 

[Derec]

When you look at the liberal left,

What about the illiberal left? Guys like Michael Reinoehl or Willem van Spronsen or all those people who were burning this bitch down from 2014 on?

 

[Derec]

attacks and vandalism on federal buildings (wait.. isn’t that what they were accusing antifa of doing?)

Antifa/#BLM prefer to destroy private businesses (car dealerships, CVSs, Target - both store and headquarters, QT etc.) but they have been known to attack police stations, courthouses (both local and federal) and ICE buildings.

 

[Derec]

As a political ploy you may be correct. As a practical solution walls seem to have always failed, even walls intended to keep people in as opposed to keeping people out.

A wall is a good tool, as long as it is not the only thing. A monitored wall can slow down inflows to a manageable level. But then you have to be able to actually deport illegals. We live in a time where asylum system is abused to the extent that pretty much everybody coming in illegally is claiming asylum because that means they cannot be deported for a few years at least, even if their claim is 100% bogus. We also live in a society where illegals are protected by "sanctuary" cities and states.
What is also needed is to end the idiotic interpretation of the 14th amendment that children born to illegals are automatically citizens. Birthright citizenship should only apply to children of citizens and legal permanent residents. No illegals, no tourists or temporary visa holders like student visas.

 

[prideandfall]

Most of the violence in recent years has come from the far left. Ferguson, Baltimore, Charlotte, and then in 2020 all over the country.
Before that there were riots in Seattle in 1999 and Los Angeles in 1992.
The 1960s through 1980s also saw widespread leftist violence by groups like Black Liberation Army and Weather Underground who overtly sought to overthrow the US government. An all-female offshoot of WU even bombed the Senate in 1983 (Bill Clinton shamefully commuted their sentences.)

If there is the next civil war in the US, the violence will be started by the far left. And the media will pretend that it's just "peaceful protests".

was this post intended to come across as a totally blind and hilariously ignorant proving-my-point about how dipshits on the internet would try to blame everything on the left? or, was it unintended to come across as a totally blind and hilariously ignorant proving-my-point about dipshits on the internet blaming everything on the left?

 

[Derec]

was this post intended to come across as a totally blind and hilariously ignorant proving-my-point about how dipshits on the internet would try to blame everything on the left? or, was it unintended to come across as a totally blind and hilariously ignorant proving-my-point about dipshits on the internet blaming everything on the left?

Nobody is saying that everything is to be blamed on the left.
But there has been a lot more political violence from the left in recent decades, as I already illustrated. Radical groups of the 60s and 70s were still active into the 80s (Brinks robbery, Senate bombing etc.). Riots in the 90s. Then came the new era of left-wing violence starting in 2014 (Ferguson insurrection) and culminating, for now at least, in the widespread rioting, looting and burning of 2020. They even occupied territory in several US cities such as Seattle and Minneapolis!

Say what you will about the January 6th dipshits but they never burned down a Wendy's, occupied the area with armed force for weeks and murdered an 8 year old girl.

On the other hand, you are blaming everything on the right and pretend that there is no problem with left-wing violence from groups like #BLM and Antifa.

 

[Politesse]

was this post intended to come across as a totally blind and hilariously ignorant proving-my-point about how dipshits on the internet would try to blame everything on the left? or, was it unintended to come across as a totally blind and hilariously ignorant proving-my-point about dipshits on the internet blaming everything on the left?

Nobody is saying that everything is to be blamed on the left.
But there has been a lot more political violence from the left in recent decades, as I already illustrated. Radical groups of the 60s and 70s were still active into the 80s (Brinks robbery, Senate bombing etc.). Riots in the 90s. Then came the new era of left-wing violence starting in 2014 (Ferguson insurrection) and culminating, for now at least, in the widespread rioting, looting and burning of 2020. They even occupied territory in several US cities such as Seattle and Minneapolis!

Say what you will about the January 6th dipshits but they never burned down a Wendy's, occupied the area with armed force for weeks and murdered an 8 year old girl.

On the other hand, you are blaming everything on the right and pretend that there is no problem with left-wing violence from groups like #BLM and Antifa.

Wait, you're saying burning down a goddamn Wendy's is a more serious crime than invading the national Capitol?

Man, there really are two Americas...

 

[prideandfall]

Wait, you're saying burning down a goddamn Wendy's is a more serious crime than invading the national Capitol?

Man, there really are two Americas...

yes, he is, because the wendy's suffered damage from a fire allegedly started by black people, and if there's two things derec hates more than anything it's when niggers and bitches start getting uppity.

 

[Jarhyn]

My question at this point is if a civil war broke out, who would be the leadership of the new confederacy?

The most obvious one for a while was Trump. (can you imagine the disaster of a civil war with Trump as commander of one side?) But he has been loosing support among the MAGAts. Some would likely look to Tucker Carlson, but I don't know if he is interested in leading an insurrection instead of just profiting from it. Might end up with a bunch of small groups with no coordination and possible infighting (It's Judean People's Front!) That would actually be the hardest to deal with since no central leadership to take down or communications to monitor. Taking out one group would inspire other nut cases to form new groups.

There are a few answers to this, because there are two segments

The first is "y'all Q'aieda". They have no leadership, no objectives. They will be the initial scrim of chaos.

Second wave comes the Aryan Brotherhood. These are hardened, organized, criminally capable individuals with ideology and a desire to enforce it. This ideology matches well with the eventual needs of a fascist police state.

These people will be the backbone of any army brought by fascism, because they are what is available.

Then there are the actual aristocrats of the movement, who have already figured out their play and likely calculated already where they expect the chips to fall.

 

[Swammerdami]

Many op-eds are appearing about the new American Civil War. The Guardian's "The next US civil war is already here – we just refuse to see it" is a good read. The entire article is so well-informed and so well-written I won't even try to excerpt from it. (Free no-credit-card registration is offered if you need that to read the article.)

With no Mason-Dixon Line dividing the country in half, it may be hard to see how the Civil War will play out. Election-related activities will certainly be one type of venue for violence: Expect polling stations and election officials' offices and homes to be the targets of armed insurrectionists. (Good election officials are already resigning in anticipation of future grief.)

A large majority of police and a substantial share of the military are ideologically aligned with Trumpists and Neo-Nazis. The dangers are real but the Guardian article, like many similar warnings, finds pro-democracy Americans to be much too complacent.

 

[Jarhyn]

Many op-eds are appearing about the new American Civil War. The Guardian's "The next US civil war is already here – we just refuse to see it" is a good read. The entire article is so well-informed and so well-written I won't even try to excerpt from it. (Free no-credit-card registration is offered if you need that to read the article.)

With no Mason-Dixon Line dividing the country in half, it may be hard to see how the Civil War will play out. Election-related activities will certainly be one type of venue for violence: Expect polling stations and election officials' offices and homes to be the targets of armed insurrectionists. (Good election officials are already resigning in anticipation of future grief.)

A large majority of police and a substantial share of the military are ideologically aligned with Trumpists and Neo-Nazis. The dangers are real but the Guardian article, like many similar warnings, finds pro-democracy Americans to be much too complacent.

In all reality, it comes down to a game theoretic truth: pro-democracy Americans are not complacent, at least not this one. We are merely, generally, quiet enough about where we stand so as to not be easy targets among the chaotic first phase.

 

[Gospel]

The only thing this article seems to be missing is the part where this time around there won't be any mercy for the "south" because many of us no longer see you as brothers and sisters. So you won't get to keep yo shit this time.

 

[marc]

The only thing this article seems to be missing is the part where this time around there won't be any mercy for the "south" because many of us no longer see you as brothers and sisters. So you won't get to keep yo shit this time.

Something like this scene from the movie "The Outlaw Jose Wales" when confederate troops came to surrender after the war.

 

[Jarhyn]

The only thing this article seems to be missing is the part where this time around there won't be any mercy for the "south" because many of us no longer see you as brothers and sisters. So you won't get to keep yo shit this time.

Something like this scene from the movie "The Outlaw Jose Wales" when confederate troops came to surrender after the war.

So, generally I am always of the opinion that corrections and education are the path forward as respects all criminal ideations, as is available.

But there's no way the jails would hold that many.

 

[Patooka]

Something like this scene from the movie "The Outlaw Jose Wales" when confederate troops came to surrender after the war.

I suspect it would be more like Anderson Station from The Expanse. The exception being whoever is playing the role of Fred Johnson not giving a fuck about surrender, nor asking for it. Threat eliminated.

Apologies for posting yet another Beau video, but the Newsweek article he was referring to in the video is this one:

Exclusive: Secret Commandos with Shoot-to-Kill Authority Were at Capitol

In this daily series, Newsweek explores the steps that led to the January 6 Capitol Riot.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Swammerdami]

Did the U.S. come very close to a coup d'état in 1933?

Also from the Guardian is an article by Sally Denton detailing how close the U.S. came to a coup d'état in 1933. Supposedly several of the nations's very top business leaders were involved in an insurrection plot. The plot might have succeeded but the plotters chose US Marine Corps Maj Gen Smedley Darlington Butler as one of their military leaders, and he patriotically informed the FBI. Apparently FDR suppressed information about the treasons, partly to avoid panic, and partly so that the criminal evidence could be retained as a negotiating threat to quench opposition from those businesses.

 

[Derec]

Wait, you're saying burning down a goddamn Wendy's is a more serious crime than invading the national Capitol?

Don't try pulling that shit again!
The #BLMers did not just burn down the Wendy's, they occupied that area with heavily armed force for weeks and during that occupation they murdered an 8 year old girl.
But even that can't just be viewed in isolation. The Rayshard Brooks Riots were just one of many left-wing riots going on for months in 2020 alone. We had many businesses destroyed and/or set on fire as well as government buildings like police stations, courthouses etc. damaged.
In several cities territory was occupied for weeks.

I am not saying that January 6th wasn't serious or that those responsible should not be punished. But you and other leftists dismiss the left-wing political violence. Left-wing DAs also refuse to prosecute most rioters or give them a slap on the wrist even when they do things like assault police.

Man, there really are two Americas...

And "your" America continuously makes excuses for political violence from the Left.

 

[Swammerdami]

When the facts are ag'in' ya ...

Law enforcement have expressed concerns that the broader sharing of false narratives and conspiracy theories will gain traction in mainstream environments, resulting in individuals or small groups embracing violent tactics to achieve their desired objectives.
...
Two later draft versions of the [Department of Homeland Security] document — all of which were reviewed by POLITICO — describe the threat from white supremacists in slightly different language. But all three drafts describe the threat from white supremacists as the deadliest domestic terror threat facing the U.S., listed above the immediate danger from foreign terrorist groups.
...
None of the drafts POLITICO reviewed referred to a threat from Antifa, the loose cohort of militant left-leaning agitators who senior Trump administration officials have described as domestic terrorists.
...
“This draft document seems to be consistent with earlier intelligence reports from DHS, the FBI, and other law enforcement sources: that the most significant terror-related threat facing the US today comes from violent extremists who are motivated by white supremacy and other far-right ideological causes,”

... rely on anecdotes:

Wait, you're saying burning down a goddamn Wendy's is a more serious crime than invading the national Capitol?

Don't try pulling that shit again!
The #BLMers did not just burn down the Wendy's, they occupied that area with heavily armed force for weeks and during that occupation they murdered an 8 year old girl....

I am not saying that January 6th wasn't serious or that those responsible should not be punished. But you and other leftists dismiss the left-wing political violence. Left-wing DAs also refuse to prosecute most rioters or give them a www.foxnews.com/us/portland-antifa-rioter-charged-assaulting-police-case-dismissed-30-hours-community-service slap on the wrist even when they do things like assault police

Man, there really are two Americas...

And "your" America continuously makes excuses for political violence from the Left.

Have we seen a lot of anecdotes from this contingent? Give Derec some credit though: Although he hasn't explicitly conceded that attempting to overthrow the lawfully elected government was "serious," he is NOT saying that it WASN'T serious.

 

[Jarhyn]

When the facts are ag'in' ya ...

Law enforcement have expressed concerns that the broader sharing of false narratives and conspiracy theories will gain traction in mainstream environments, resulting in individuals or small groups embracing violent tactics to achieve their desired objectives.
...
Two later draft versions of the [Department of Homeland Security] document — all of which were reviewed by POLITICO — describe the threat from white supremacists in slightly different language. But all three drafts describe the threat from white supremacists as the deadliest domestic terror threat facing the U.S., listed above the immediate danger from foreign terrorist groups.
...
None of the drafts POLITICO reviewed referred to a threat from Antifa, the loose cohort of militant left-leaning agitators who senior Trump administration officials have described as domestic terrorists.
...
“This draft document seems to be consistent with earlier intelligence reports from DHS, the FBI, and other law enforcement sources: that the most significant terror-related threat facing the US today comes from violent extremists who are motivated by white supremacy and other far-right ideological causes,”

... rely on anecdotes:

Wait, you're saying burning down a goddamn Wendy's is a more serious crime than invading the national Capitol?

Don't try pulling that shit again!
The #BLMers did not just burn down the Wendy's, they occupied that area with heavily armed force for weeks and during that occupation they murdered an 8 year old girl....

I am not saying that January 6th wasn't serious or that those responsible should not be punished. But you and other leftists dismiss the left-wing political violence. Left-wing DAs also refuse to prosecute most rioters or give them a www.foxnews.com/us/portland-antifa-rioter-charged-assaulting-police-case-dismissed-30-hours-community-service slap on the wrist even when they do things like assault police

Man, there really are two Americas...

And "your" America continuously makes excuses for political violence from the Left.

Have we seen a lot of anecdotes from this contingent? Give Derec some credit though: Although he hasn't explicitly conceded that attempting to overthrow the lawfully elected government was "serious," he is NOT saying that it WASN'T serious.

And for all his discussion, seems to place the seriousness of measures against fascism that the FBI, DHS, et al vigorously don't give a shit, at maximum seriousness.

I can only ascertain that what is "serious" is that it is a "serious impediment to fascism that those who whinge against ANTIFA wish to enact, and those people seem to be exactly the same people who the FBI thinks serious thoughts about."

At any rate Derec, you got your wish WRT gun possession: my prescription from my principles has pivoted on the context and now I think that the left needs to get armed.

Derec made a Tinkerbell Effect happen.

 

[Politesse]

Wait, you're saying burning down a goddamn Wendy's is a more serious crime than invading the national Capitol?

Don't try pulling that shit again!
The #BLMers did not just burn down the Wendy's, they occupied that area with heavily armed force for weeks and during that occupation they murdered an 8 year old girl.
But even that can't just be viewed in isolation. The Rayshard Brooks Riots were just one of many left-wing riots going on for months in 2020 alone. We had many businesses destroyed and/or set on fire as well as government buildings like police stations, courthouses etc. damaged.
In several cities territory was occupied for weeks.

I am not saying that January 6th wasn't serious or that those responsible should not be punished. But you and other leftists dismiss the left-wing political violence. Left-wing DAs also refuse to prosecute most rioters or give them a slap on the wrist even when they do things like assault police.

Man, there really are two Americas...

And "your" America continuously makes excuses for political violence from the Left.

Well, for the record, since I am apparently The Left, I absolutely and without hesitation support the legal prosecution of Secoriea Turner's murderer. Indeed, this is already coming to pass. He will never again see the outside world, and that is a good thing. He and his accomplice were members of the Bloods, a notoriously violent street gang, and no doubt this was only the worst thing they ever did, not the only bad thing.

But if the orchestrators of the January 6 coup attempt face similar penalties for their acts of sedition, I will likewise be content. If you don't think that overthrowing a democratically elected government would result in increased gang violence, you know nothing of sociology.