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If Solar And Wind Are So Cheap, Why Are They Making Electricity So Expensive?

bilby

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/23/if-solar-and-wind-are-so-cheap-why-are-they-making-electricity-more-expensive/

Part of the problem is that many reporters don’t understand electricity. They think of electricity as a commodity when it is, in fact, a service — like eating at a restaurant.

The price we pay for the luxury of eating out isn’t just the cost of the ingredients most of which which, like solar panels and wind turbines, have declined for decades.

Rather, the price of services like eating out and electricity reflect the cost not only of a few ingredients but also their preparation and delivery.

And the disposal of wasted oversupply.

As intermittent renewables become a significant fraction of the energy generation mix, the cost of electricity soars.

The solution, of course (assuming we wish to eliminate fossil fuels from the mix, which we surely do) is nuclear power.
 
If Solar And Wind Are So Cheap, Why Are They Making Electricity So Expensive?

While sunlight and wind are a damned site cheaper (free) than coal, the cost of equipment to convert those free energy sources to useful electricity is much higher than the cost of equipment to convert the energy in coal to useful electricity. Coal is cited because it is currently the primary source for the power industry.

ETA:
If it were actually cheaper to use solar and wind than coal then the power industry would have already switched from coal to those sources to cut their costs and increase their profits.
 
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There are several things going on regarding mostly solar electricity.

In Hawaii and California a few years back there were utilities that put a hold on new home solar hook ups that fed excess power to the grid. The laws required utilities to pay and the incentive for homeowners was being paid for excess power.

There was enough power being fed back to utilities that it upset overall rate pricing, it was lowering profit.

Solar power attacks centralized utilities. Theren is also the fossil fuel lobby. Natural gas and coal are cheap right now.

There are utilities building solar electric farms. There is a Sterling Engine project in California.

Electric power is a commodity. A place like NYC can and does switch sources depending on price.

Another issue is ever increasing demand. It cost money for utilities to keep up regardless of the type of generation.

And of course the problem of 24/7 power generation.

If we had taken all the money spent in Iraq over two wars ostensibly to protect Saudi oil and gave it homeowners for solar power we would be far better off.

Solar power generation technology is mature. As things go technically it is pretty simple stuff. The problem is conservatives will reject any national plan for large scale solar integration. They consider that govt interference in free markets. China is going full speed on solar. Conservatives seem to forget the govt driven electrification of America.
 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/23/if-solar-and-wind-are-so-cheap-why-are-they-making-electricity-more-expensive/

Part of the problem is that many reporters don’t understand electricity. They think of electricity as a commodity when it is, in fact, a service — like eating at a restaurant.

The price we pay for the luxury of eating out isn’t just the cost of the ingredients most of which which, like solar panels and wind turbines, have declined for decades.

Rather, the price of services like eating out and electricity reflect the cost not only of a few ingredients but also their preparation and delivery.

And the disposal of wasted oversupply.

As intermittent renewables become a significant fraction of the energy generation mix, the cost of electricity soars.

The solution, of course (assuming we wish to eliminate fossil fuels from the mix, which we surely do) is nuclear power.

... or better and cheaper storing technologies. If you use your oversupply to recharge reservoir power stations, the oversupply is neither wasted (not entirely at least since no conversion is 100% efficient), nor in need of disposal. And sure in the 21tst century we can find better ways to store energy than by pumping water up a hill?
 
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/23/if-solar-and-wind-are-so-cheap-why-are-they-making-electricity-more-expensive/

Part of the problem is that many reporters don’t understand electricity. They think of electricity as a commodity when it is, in fact, a service — like eating at a restaurant.

The price we pay for the luxury of eating out isn’t just the cost of the ingredients most of which which, like solar panels and wind turbines, have declined for decades.

Rather, the price of services like eating out and electricity reflect the cost not only of a few ingredients but also their preparation and delivery.

And the disposal of wasted oversupply.

As intermittent renewables become a significant fraction of the energy generation mix, the cost of electricity soars.

The solution, of course (assuming we wish to eliminate fossil fuels from the mix, which we surely do) is nuclear power.

... or better and cheaper storing technologies. If you use your oversupply to recharge reservoir power stations, the oversupply is neither wasted (not entirely at least since no conversion is 100% efficient), nor in need of disposal. And sure in the 21tst century we can find better ways to store energy than by pumping water up a hill?

Right now we can't find any such solution that is not hideously expensive. And most of the good hydro pumped storage sites are now in use. Certainly there are not enough unused but suitable sites to solve the problem.

And waiting for cheap and effective high capacity batteries is like waiting for cheap fusion power. It might happen one day, but not soon enough to help with the immediate problem of reducing carbon emissions.

Nuclear fission is here now. It's the best and safest way (by any measure you might choose) of making electricity without adding to the climate change problem. Intermittent and unreliable sources just don't cut it.
 
If it were actually cheaper to use solar and wind than coal then the power industry would have already switched from coal to those sources to cut their costs and increase their profits.
That's what's been happening, but it has been a gradual process, not an instantaneous one.

This comment is like someone a century ago asking what was so great about horseless carriages when large numbers of people continue to use horses.
 
If it were actually cheaper to use solar and wind than coal then the power industry would have already switched from coal to those sources to cut their costs and increase their profits.
That's what's been happening, but it has been a gradual process, not an instantaneous one.

This comment is like someone a century ago asking what was so great about horseless carriages when large numbers of people continue to use horses.
Not at all. The comment was addressed to those who believe and claim that solar and wind is cheaper for large scale electrical production than coal (probably because the energy source is free and ignoring the infrastructure and maintenance cost). This current cost gap will certainly decrease with future innovations in the industry but, for now, that is the situation.

For small scale electric such as powering an isolated cabin in the mountains or island, solar and/or wind with battery storage would be cheaper.
 
...
For small scale electric such as powering an isolated cabin in the mountains or island, solar and/or wind with battery storage would be cheaper.

And then there's always what to do when the next major coronal mass ejection hits. Of course you might need an AR-15 if you plan to hang onto them.
 
If it were actually cheaper to use solar and wind than coal then the power industry would have already switched from coal to those sources to cut their costs and increase their profits.
That's what's been happening, but it has been a gradual process, not an instantaneous one.

This comment is like someone a century ago asking what was so great about horseless carriages when large numbers of people continue to use horses.

That's not what's been happening. What's been happening is that wind and solar producers have been massively subsidised and protected from the reality that they cost more. And as the article in the OP points out, the result has been massive rises in electricity prices, where these have been widely adopted.

Electricity is a service, not a commodity - what people are prepared to pay for is electricity when they want or need it. What the big wind and solar producing nations now have is a situation where people are made to buy electricity when the producers have it to sell. Whether they need it or not. And then they also have to pay for the standby generation - usually gas - that has to be there for the big gaps when wind and solar produce nothing.

Even if we magically replaced the gas backups with some kind of miraculously adequate storage solution, the cost of that solution still must be worn by the consumers, and it's just poor accounting not to include that cost when considering whether intermittent renewables are cost effective.

There are only three serious contenders for making electricity without carbon dioxide emissions. Wind, Solar, and Nuclear. France, Sweden and Ontario have gone with nuclear; Germany and Denmark with wind. Nobody has yet gone far into solar, but California is starting to do so.

We can compare the results fairly easily. And doing so, we find that the nuclear nations have far lower carbon dioxide emissions, and far lower electricity bills, than the wind nations; And the fledgling solar adopters are going the same way as the wind power people.

Of course, the very powerful lobby in favour of wind and solar make it easy to imagine that this is not the case, by presenting irrelevant facts (eg 'Denmark runs for three days on wind power alone' - sure, but three days is meaningless. Wake me up when they run for a year on more than 90% renewables).

But an honest review of the bottom line - actual carbon dioxide emissions over a year; actual power prices averaged over all consumers for a year - shows the real story. Compare France and Sweden with Denmark and Germany in the video below. Then try to tell me, with a straight face, how effective Germany or Denmark have been at reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Solar power has a capacity factor of around 30% in the tropics, dropping off dramatically at high latitudes. Wind has a capacity factor of between 30 and 55%, most sites at the lower end of that range. Nuclear power plants have a capacity factor of over 90%, and unlike wind or solar, the timing of the unproductive periods is flexible and can be planned to coincide with low demand, or to avoid coinciding with downtime at other nearby facilities.

Intermittent renewables are very cheap and clean. Sometimes. But the majority of the time, they are actually coal or gas. Which costs nearly as much with wind and solar as it would without.

[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6EOoC_kKI0[/YOUTUBE]
 
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From a solar text solar heating was growing in the late 19th century. Eventually it was killed by cheap natural gas.

Anyone remember the 70s Arab Oil Embargo? Congress created incentives for solar, it wasn't renewed.

I'd have to look up and estimate average dollars per kilowatt hour, average monthly home consumption, and years for breakeven on solar electrics. I would not trust potentially biased reports. The time for ROI is the critical factor for home solar.

Back in the 80s a hydrogen economy was all the rage. About 9 tears ago Pickens had a project to build a string of turbines across the Midwest. The idea was to siphon off some power to generate hydrogen which would drive fuel cells during low wind times. I worked on a proposal for the fuel cell DC to AC converter. Turned out in our opinion the project was not feasible. You would need multiple wind turbines at each site to create enough hydrogen considering all the inefficiencies.

On large scale alternative energy. energy storage is the big bugaboo. There are hydro systems that use excess energy to pump ware up to a reovoir/


Energy is a commodity just like food. Some places have a public power utility.

In the southwest new housing developments commonly include solar.

The main reason to go solar is to decentralize power. It is more secure and disaster proof, witness Puerto Rico. PR should be heavily vested in solar.
 
From a solar text solar heating was growing in the late 19th century. Eventually it was killed by cheap natural gas.

Anyone remember the 70s Arab Oil Embargo? Congress created incentives for solar, it wasn't renewed.

I'd have to look up and estimate average dollars per kilowatt hour, average monthly home consumption, and years for breakeven on solar electrics. I would not trust potentially biased reports. The time for ROI is the critical factor for home solar.

Back in the 80s a hydrogen economy was all the rage. About 9 tears ago Pickens had a project to build a string of turbines across the Midwest. The idea was to siphon off some power to generate hydrogen which would drive fuel cells during low wind times. I worked on a proposal for the fuel cell DC to AC converter. Turned out in our opinion the project was not feasible. You would need multiple wind turbines at each site to create enough hydrogen considering all the inefficiencies.

On large scale alternative energy. energy storage is the big bugaboo. There are hydro systems that use excess energy to pump ware up to a reovoir/


Energy is a commodity just like food.
And, like food, production needs to be driven by demand, not the other way about. A restaurant that forces customers to eat when the food is cooked, whether they are hungry or not; but which is closed at lunchtime because they only have food 30% of the time, and cannot predict when it will be, is going to go out of business unless heavily subsidised.
Some places have a public power utility.

In the southwest new housing developments commonly include solar.

The main reason to go solar is to decentralize power. It is more secure and disaster proof, witness Puerto Rico. PR should be heavily vested in solar.

Puerto Rico was. It turned out not to be disaster proof at all:

IMG_3104.JPG
 
With our free market LFC system, some things that are reduced to lowest cost should not be. China thinks out a hundred years. Congress has trouble thinking beyond election cycles.

As to Puerto Rico, what percentage of energy production is fossil and solar-wind? From what I saw in the reporting they have the usual power grid, not decentralized power. Considering the region PR did nothing to build hurricane resistant infrastructure.

I did a lot of research when I worked on proposal I mentioned. Utilities are implementing solar electric, Sterling Engines, and solar furnaces where it is feasible.

There are some staes with a growing percentage of non fossil based energy. My eyes are bad, it will take a while to look it up.

The short answer to the OP question has always been energy storage. NYC depends on upstate hydro, they natural gas plants as backups.

As to service vs commodity, not all utilities have energy production plants. The grid can be switched to change sources on the fly. The northeast has a power compact on who gets what and how much and from who. Some electricity comes from Canada.

Treating it nationally as a public service would never work for a number of reasons.
 
The truth about soaring power prices: wind and solar not to blame - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) from 25 Sep 2017
Between them, however, competition kahuna Rod Sims and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull last week demolished an old chestnut about renewable energy: it is not the cause for the recent spike in electricity prices.

In fact, according to both, it has had very little impact.

For the past decade or more, we've been bombarded with the message from a vocal but powerful minority within Parliament and the broader community that the switch to renewable energy has made Australia uncompetitive, crippled our industry and driven power prices higher.
The article proposes some other reasons for increased electricity prices:
First, there was Rod Sims at the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday: "Forty-one per cent of the increase in electricity prices over the last 10 years has been in network costs and we keep forgetting that."

He went on: "Those poles and wires that run down your street are the main reason you are paying too much for your electricity."
That would be a problem if electricity-distribution infrastructure is aging and becoming in need of a lot of repairs.

When it comes to electricity, gas is that last final element.

"It is peaking power," the PM said. "The increase in the gas price has increased the cost of electricity."

Gas prices haven't just increased. They have quadrupled.

And the tragedy is that Australia, with one of the greatest reserves of gas on the planet, now charges its households and businesses far more to use that energy than the countries to which we export.
That's a very plausible reason. Natural gas is very convenient. One can get high efficiency with combined-cycle powerplants, and quick response with peaker ones. It is also very clean-burning and a smaller emitter of carbon dioxide than coal. Quick response is something lacking from coal and nuclear -- it can take hours to adjust their output.

So I think that a lot of utilities have invested too much in natural-gas generation. Thus making their demand outrun the supply and destroying a major reason for investing in it.

I decided to test that hypothesis by looking for actual numbers. I found Natural Gas Price: Latest Price & Chart for Natural Gas - NASDAQ.com) and I did indeed find a recent increase. Natural gas was at about $4 per million BTU (1 BTU = 1055 joules) in 2014, it declined to $2 in 2016, and it rose to $3 in 2017. I also found European Union Natural Gas Import Price (Monthly, USD per Million Btu), and it dropped from $10 in 2014 to $3 in 2016 and then rose, reaching $7 this year.
 
As intermittent renewables become a significant fraction of the energy generation mix, the cost of electricity soars.
While increases in natural-gas and coal prices have nothing to do with it, right?

The solution, of course (assuming we wish to eliminate fossil fuels from the mix, which we surely do) is nuclear power.
Something that has a variability problem opposite of wind and solar -- it is too inflexible.

And waiting for cheap and effective high capacity batteries is like waiting for cheap fusion power. It might happen one day, but not soon enough to help with the immediate problem of reducing carbon emissions.
IMO it's far more likely than controlled nuclear fusion. Lithium-ion batteries are getting better and better, and there are some promising alternatives, at least for large batteries, like flow batteries and sodium-sulfur batteries. Another possibility is a combination of electrolysis and fuel cells, storing energy as hydrogen and releasing it by combining it with oxygen.

This hydrogen can also be used to make synthetic fuels, though synfuels are still more expensive than fossil ones. It is rather revealing that Cleantech News — Solar, Wind, EV News (#1 Source) | CleanTechnica has very few articles about synfuels.
 
h Dakota. Energy from renewable sources: 17 percent. ...
New Hampshire. Energy from renewable sources: 20 percent. ...
Vermont. Energy from renewable sources: 25 percent. ...
Iowa. Energy from renewable sources: 26 percent. ...
Idaho. Energy from renewable sources: 30 percent. .

Solar and wind are staedily growing. Obviously solar doesn't work everywhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_United_States



In an area favorable to solar electricity

1. What is the cost per megawatt to build a new solar, natural gas, or coal plant.
2. What are the maineneace costs.
3. What are the recurring fuel costs.

In the southwest little development costs are needed for solar compared to a dossil plant.. Commercial solar panels and small commercial inverters operarte in parallel.

\\Major global plants.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_station#United_States

I read about a project a while back to sell solar electric enrgy from North Africa to Europe thru underwater cables.

https://qz.com/1084847/sub-saharan-...-africa-will-soon-be-selling-power-to-europe/

The practical solution in the USA is a mix of nuclear, fossil, solar, and wind.

As can be seen in the links solar electric is making steady gains globally.
 
bilby said:
That's not what's been happening. What's been happening is that wind and solar producers have been massively subsidised and protected from the reality that they cost more.
But coal costs a lot; it's just that some of the main costs are outsourced by the industry to many other people. Some of those costs aren't monetary (e.g., poorer health, shorter lives, generally lower quality of lives), but others are so, even if very difficult to estimate (mostly increased health care costs, since sicker people tend to pay to get somewhat better when they can do so). This isn't even counting global warming, but just people getting sick, etc., right now, due to air pollution. So, it's not clear to me whether coal costs more, even if just considering monetary costs. I'm not familiar with any good estimates of that.

That said, I do agree that nuclear is the best solution at this point - or it would be, if people were rational about it. But when making policy decisions, governments need to factor in stiff opposition from people who aren't being rational as well, since those people have power too and can make an otherwise good policy fail. Still, there are of course countries where nuclear power is being developed and deployed, and any opposition lacks significant power.
 
bilby said:
That's not what's been happening. What's been happening is that wind and solar producers have been massively subsidised and protected from the reality that they cost more.
But coal costs a lot; it's just that some of the main costs are outsourced by the industry to many other people. Some of those costs aren't monetary (e.g., poorer health, shorter lives, generally lower quality of lives), but others are so, even if very difficult to estimate (mostly increased health care costs, since sicker people tend to pay to get somewhat better when they can do so). This isn't even counting global warming, but just people getting sick, etc., right now, due to air pollution. So, it's not clear to me whether coal costs more, even if just considering monetary costs. I'm not familiar with any good estimates of that.

That said, I do agree that nuclear is the best solution at this point - or it would be, if people were rational about it. But when making policy decisions, governments need to factor in stiff opposition from people who aren't being rational as well, since those people have power too and can make an otherwise good policy fail. Still, there are of course countries where nuclear power is being developed and deployed, and any opposition lacks significant power.

Sure, where there are externalities like pollution, the costs of those need to be considered. Fossil fuels (and biomass) should be subject to a pigouvian tax on any emitted fossil carbon dioxide, sulfur and/or nitrogen oxides, and particulates, to ensure that the cost of that pollution is built into the final wholesale price of energy generated using those fuels.
 
Irrigators switch to on-farm solar to reduce power costs - ABC Rural - ABC News -- who would have expected it?

Clean coal explained: Why emissions reductions from coal remain a pipe dream - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) -- it would require building a lot of additional infrastructure, making it not much different from renewable-energy generation.

The simple truth: Coal-fired generators have no future in Australia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Electricity prices could double with new coal-fired stations, energy experts say - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Energy Australia boss says national plan for renewable energy is solution to high power prices - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Wind, Solar, & Batteries Continue To Squeeze Out Fossil Fuels, Finds BNEF | CleanTechnica
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) published its most recent analysis of the levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) for all leading energy technologies this week, which showed that in the first half of 2018, the benchmark global LCoE for onshore wind fell to $55 per megawatt-hour (MWh), down 18% from the first six months of 2017 and down 38% over the 9 years that BNEF has been tracking LCoEs. Similarly, the global LCoE for solar PV without tracking systems fell to $70/MWh, also down 18% and down 77% over BNEF’s 9 year tracking period.

The LCoE for offshore wind technology fell to $118/MWh, down 5%, but maybe most importantly was that since 2010 the costs of lithium-ion batteries fell by 79% and wrought merry-havoc with fossil fuel technologies, helping to undermine fossil fuels traditional role in providing the supply of bulk generation, dispatchable generation, and flexibility.
The article quotes a BNEF analyst as speculating that operators of existing coal and natgas powerplants will likely keep them running for several more years, but that these operators may soon stop building new ones.
 
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