Impeachment and Conviction Predictions

[laughing dog]

What do you think the likelihood of the House impeaching President Trump?
What do you think the likelihood of the Senate convicting the President Trump of impeachable offenses?

I think the former is over 75% and the latter under 50%.

 

[ZiprHead]

I think the latter might be a little higher since that will happen after he's out of office.

 

[Deepak]

https://dknation.draftkings.com/202...iction-25th-amendment-inauguration-attendance

...
And Betfair in London also made a bit of a cheeky wager available — something you wouldn’t ever get by regulators in most US markets. Here are the odds for what Donald Trump will be doing when Joe Biden is inaugurated, as the current President has tweeted he won’t be in attendance:

What will Trump be doing during the Inauguration Day ceremony?
Playing golf -200
Tanning +600
Speaking with Kim Jong-un on the phone +2500
On plane to Russia +5000
Measuring his hands +10000

 

[Copernicus]

McConnell is on record as saying that he won't allow a vote on impeachment before he becomes minority leader. Trump is likely to be impeached by the House, since Pelosi has already vowed to bring it up for a vote. It is debatable whether a Senate trial would lead to any consequence after Trump is gone. Impeaching Trump next week would send a strong symbolic message, but that is about all. The precedent now is that chambers of Congress controlled by the president in power shield him or her from danger of impeachment. The guard rails have been removed, opening us up to a greater likelihood of one-party rule in the future.

 

[Deepak]

McConnell is on record as saying that he won't allow a vote on impeachment before he becomes minority leader. Trump is likely to be impeached by the House, since Pelosi has already vowed to bring it up for a vote. It is debatable whether a Senate trial would lead to any consequence after Trump is gone. Impeaching Trump next week would send a strong symbolic message, but that is about all. The precedent now is that chambers of Congress controlled by the president in power shield him or her from danger of impeachment. The guard rails have been removed, opening us up to a greater likelihood of one-party rule in the future.

Apart from the material benefits Trump would receive from completing his term, like pension, Secret Service detail, and travel expenses, an impeachment would put the test to the Republicans to see if they want to own what Trump does through 2024. There's no precedent to set here, as it seems more likely that some attrition affects the Republicans' vote, nor do I see the Democrats using this as a model for behavior in the future.

The Rs would be setting precedent for their future behavior and nothing else. Indeed, it's a call for bipartisan reconciliation after Trump's insurrection. They could excise him from the party and show that they support their country over their party. Having no vote is equivalent to a No vote; Trump is the albatross around the Rs collective neck and I don't think anyone in either party currently thinks they're interested in anything except partisanship and one-party rule. It would be a literal escape hatch

 

[prideandfall]

this isn't a prediction this is immutable fact: there won't be an impeachment or a conviction.

the idea that a right-wing politico in the US would be held accountable for their actions in this country is fucking laughable.

 

[Copernicus]

McConnell is on record as saying that he won't allow a vote on impeachment before he becomes minority leader. Trump is likely to be impeached by the House, since Pelosi has already vowed to bring it up for a vote. It is debatable whether a Senate trial would lead to any consequence after Trump is gone. Impeaching Trump next week would send a strong symbolic message, but that is about all. The precedent now is that chambers of Congress controlled by the president in power shield him or her from danger of impeachment. The guard rails have been removed, opening us up to a greater likelihood of one-party rule in the future.

Apart from the material benefits Trump would receive from completing his term, like pension, Secret Service detail, and travel expenses, an impeachment would put the test to the Republicans to see if they want to own what Trump does through 2024. There's no precedent to set here, as it seems more likely that some attrition affects the Republicans' vote, nor do I see the Democrats using this as a model for behavior in the future.

The Rs would be setting precedent for their future behavior and nothing else. Indeed, it's a call for bipartisan reconciliation after Trump's insurrection. They could excise him from the party and show that they support their country over their party. Having no vote is equivalent to a No vote; Trump is the albatross around the Rs collective neck and I don't think anyone in either party currently thinks they're interested in anything except partisanship and one-party rule. It would be a literal escape hatch

We still have a two-party system because of how our voting process is structured. One-party rule does not require Democrats to behave like Republicans, but I don't see any signs yet that Republicans will change their approach to government. Trump did not invent it. He just took advantage of it to leverage himself into the top spot. Once there, he and the Republican majorities worked in tandem to fulfill each other's goals. McConnell got the judiciary packed with all of those life-appointed conservative judicial activists. They managed to pass a huge tax break for rich people and corporations. And they succeeded in weakening welfare and other social programs. Civil rights laws were set back years, and many wealthy campaign donors were able to increase family fortunes. There is no reason to believe that any of them learned a lesson from Donald Trump's final meltdown. They'll kick him under the bus, just as he tried to kick them under the bus. 74 million Americans voted for Trump--47% of the electorate. This is a temporary setback for Republicans, but they'll be back in force in 2024, if not sooner. Democrats have two years to try to repair the damage while trying to steer us out of a disastrous pandemic made worse by neglect from their mismanagement of the country.

 

[Deepak]

We still have a two-party system because of how our voting process is structured. One-party rule does not require Democrats to behave like Republicans, but I don't see any signs yet that Republicans will change their approach to government. Trump did not invent it. He just took advantage of it to leverage himself into the top spot. Once there, he and the Republican majorities worked in tandem to fulfill each other's goals. McConnell got the judiciary packed with all of those life-appointed conservative judicial activists. They managed to pass a huge tax break for rich people and corporations. And they succeeded in weakening welfare and other social programs. Civil rights laws were set back years, and many wealthy campaign donors were able to increase family fortunes. There is no reason to believe that any of them learned a lesson from Donald Trump's final meltdown. They'll kick him under the bus, just as he tried to kick them under the bus. 74 million Americans voted for Trump--47% of the electorate. This is a temporary setback for Republicans, but they'll be back in force in 2024, if not sooner. Democrats have two years to try to repair the damage while trying to steer us out of a disastrous pandemic made worse by neglect from their mismanagement of the country.

Spending two years with their noses to the grindstone being good technocrats, while letting Trump slide (and potentially extend pardons to the insurrectionists who stormed the capitol), will probably demoralize the support they have right now, and will give the Rs the air they need to rebuild for 2024 with a candidate who has enough control of his id to actually dogwhistle. I'll put a ten dollar wager on 2 years of good governance and calls for unity to translate to a loss in 2024

 

[Metaphor]

McConnell is on record as saying that he won't allow a vote on impeachment before he becomes minority leader. T

That misrepresents the facts. The Senate is currently in recess:
https://www.news.com.au/world/north...ive-coverage/fe71f5533d00a43250393574cd7ae2ab

“The Senate is currently in recess and is holding pro forma sessions every three days until January 19,” Mr McConnell writes.

There are two more of these pro forma sessions before the 19th, on January 12 and 15.
“Without unanimous consent, the Senate may not conduct any business of any kind during pro forma sessions, including beginning to act on received articles of impeachment from the House,” he continues (emphasis his).

“If the House agrees to articles of impeachment against President Trump before January 19, the Senate can receive a message announcing the House has impeached the Senate while the Senate is in recess.
“If the Senate receives an impeachment message during the recess, the Secretary of the Senate notifies the Senate of the message at the next regular session of the Senate. The next regular session of the Senate is January 19.

“Again, it would require the consent of all 100 senators to conduct any business of any kind during the scheduled pro forma sessions prior to January 19, and therefore the consent of all 100 senators to begin acting on any articles of impeachment during those sessions.”
The message here is clear as day, and not just because he’s put half of it in bold – there is absolutely, positively no way all 100 senators will agree to act on impeachment before January 19. All it would take is a lone Trump loyalist to delay the proceedings, and there’s far more than one of them in the chamber.

 

[laughing dog]

If the Senate convicts after he leaves office, it makes ineligible to run fir any federal office. That would diminish him as a direct threat to our democracy . Whether that diminishes hus indirect threat via his cultists is a different matter.

 

[TomC]

That misrepresents the facts.

McConnell has been preventing votes the Constitution requires since before Trump got elected.

Google "Merrick Garland Senate Vote".

Tom

 

[Swammerdami]

I sure hope some smart Ds come up with a plan to go forward from here. Some say, the heinous right-wing is stronger than ever -- their defeat at the Battle of the Capitol will strengthen their resolve going forward. Those who imagine the election of a sane President will return U.S. politics to sanity may be dreaming.

The U.S. isn't ready for "truth and reconciliation." True deplorables number in the tens of millions, are unrepentent, and are wallowing deeper and deeper into ignorance and hatred. After the experience of the Battle, expect unprecedented security at the Capitol and other important venues. And what about the private homes of people like AOC? America is riddled with murderous hateful terrorists. At this point, anyone who worries about foreign terrorists getting past our borders should be laughed at.

So: How to move forward? Ending filibuster would be great, but I doubt the Senate will get the 50 votes it needs for that. Instead the Ds may try what Moscow Mitch did: inventing tricks to bypass the need for cloture votes. The Ds won't need 60 votes to uphold such a trick; they won't even need 50 votes unless there's a challenge to leadership.

Impeachment? Conviction won't happen at all, let alone before January 20. It would still have the benefit of forcing R Senators to go on record about whether they favor Law and Order, or Lies and Sedition; however I don't know if it's the best way for the Ds to exploit their inertia and "mandate", which will be strongest in January and likely to diminish thereafter.

Reports say the Twitter President is enraged that he can no longer tweet. I stumbled on some blog where Don Jr. recommended donjr.com as the site for patriots to hear news from the Trumps. I clicked ... and discovered that this is a doltish little site with about zero content. One of the featured pages is "Apparel" which offers four simple black T-shirts @ $29.99. One T-shirt features an image of Don Jr. with the text "Make Snowflakes melt again." What a laughable and pathetic excuse for a crime family these Trumps are!

 

[Metaphor]

That misrepresents the facts.

McConnell has been preventing votes the Constitution requires since before Trump got elected.

Google "Merrick Garland Senate Vote".

Tom

Either what McConnell wrote is correct or it isn't. It seems to me he made some very unambiguous claims so if they are indeed wrong I assume they will be debunked.

But it does not help anybody to pretend McConnell is obstructing something when he isn't.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.rawstory.com/cruz-hawley/

...
President historian Michael Beschloss on Saturday explained that the U.S. Constitution has a provision to prevent people like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) from serving in office.
...
"And one more thing, if I might add to this, 14th Amendment of the Constitution says if you're a member of Congress -- senator or representative -- and you have aided an insurrection, you can't sit in Congress. As far as I'm concerned that may well define Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, others involved with this," he explained. "Congress is going to look very hard at these people and say, 'Are they allowed to continue in Congress under our Constitution?'"
...

Be still my beating heart! Oh to see our Congress cleansed of these sorts of unpatriotic, vote thieving, unpatriotic, right winged scum.

 

[Treedbear]

This morning on ABC's This Week, Kate Shaw, professor at Cardozo School of Law, commented that if Trump tries to pardon himself it might force the Biden Justice Dept. to bring charges against him in order to challenge a President's ability to pardon himself. Once established by precedent it would effectively place the President above the law for anything he does while in office. She says that counterintuitively he might be inviting that prosecution if he tries to self-pardon.

 

[Treedbear]

If the Senate convicts after he leaves office, it makes ineligible to run fir any federal office. That would diminish him as a direct threat to our democracy . Whether that diminishes hus indirect threat via his cultists is a different matter.

There's probably a lot of Republicans that feel threatened by the possibility that Trump might run again and would welcome his impeachment. I don't know but it seems that Pelosi might hold back on sending over the House impeachment finding until after the 20th. I think that's when the Dems take over the Senate and McConnell gets the best of both worlds because his members are off the hook. So Pelosi and McConnell might actually be in agreement on what would turn out to be the best outcome for everyone. Of course Pelosi's looking out for the nation and McConnell just cares about his party.

 

[zorq]

If the Senate convicts after he leaves office, it makes ineligible to run fir any federal office. That would diminish him as a direct threat to our democracy . Whether that diminishes hus indirect threat via his cultists is a different matter.

There's probably a lot of Republicans that feel threatened by the possibility that Trump might run again and would welcome his impeachment. I don't know but it seems that Pelosi might hold back on sending over the House impeachment finding until after the 20th. I think that's when the Dems take over the Senate and McConnell gets the best of both worlds because his members are off the hook. So Pelosi and McConnell might actually be in agreement on what would turn out to be the best outcome for everyone. Of course Pelosi's looking out for the nation and McConnell just cares about his party.

Just a reminder: It requires 2/3 of senators to convict in an impeachment. So the Republicans won't be off the hook even after the 20th. 17 out of 50 Republicans would need to vote with the Dems to convict Trump. That's still a high hurdle because group-think is a Republican virtue. Also, even though there may be enough Republicans who may prefer a convicted Trump, they are also afraid of their rabid constituents and getting primaried in the next election.

I don't predict a conviction this time around either. The R base is just too delusional to allow it. They don't actually like democracy. They only like sticking it to their outgroups.

I put house impeachment at 75% probability and senate conviction at 5% probability.

 

[Treedbear]

If the Senate convicts after he leaves office, it makes ineligible to run fir any federal office. That would diminish him as a direct threat to our democracy . Whether that diminishes hus indirect threat via his cultists is a different matter.

There's probably a lot of Republicans that feel threatened by the possibility that Trump might run again and would welcome his impeachment. I don't know but it seems that Pelosi might hold back on sending over the House impeachment finding until after the 20th. I think that's when the Dems take over the Senate and McConnell gets the best of both worlds because his members are off the hook. So Pelosi and McConnell might actually be in agreement on what would turn out to be the best outcome for everyone. Of course Pelosi's looking out for the nation and McConnell just cares about his party.

Just a reminder: It requires 2/3 of senators to convict in an impeachment. So the Republicans won't be off the hook even after the 20th. 17 out of 50 Republicans would need to vote with the Dems to convict Trump. That's still a high hurdle because group-think is a Republican virtue. Also, even though there may be enough Republicans who may prefer a convicted Trump, they are also afraid of their rabid constituents and getting primaried in the next election.

I don't predict a conviction this time around either. The R base is just too delusional to allow it. They don't actually like democracy. They only like sticking it to their outgroups.

I put house impeachment at 75% probability and senate conviction at 5% probability.

Ok I wasn't sure about that. Should have looked it up. It only takes a simple majority to impeach in the House.

 

[Terrell]

I have my doubts that anything of substantial consequence will happen to the people in power. I'll wait & see.

 

[Jayjay]

There will be an impeachment, I think. Dems have made too many threats to that effect for them not to follow through. And it's not very likely that Pence will invoke the 25th or that Trump will resign voluntarily.

But there is no chance of conviction in the senate. The republicans are still beholden to their former leader, afraid of primary challenges and a possible 2024 run. And it's easy to frame this as another witch hunt like last year.

So, just another show trial where both sides know the outcome, but go through the motions anyway.