SLD
Contributor
Man, I love sticking my neck out, so my election prediction is as follows: Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will win their party's respective nominations, but Hillary will go on to defeat Trump in the general election.
First, I love Bernie!!!! I do indeed feel the Bern. But he is not a serious presidential candidate and could not govern if he won. And while he is doing well in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, those are basically his only strong constituency. He'll lose everywhere else even if he does win those two. Most democrats realize he is less electable than Clinton; although admittedly, even he might beat the Donald. I'd sure help!
That leaves Donald to win the nomination. Polls show him doing well nationally as well as New Hampshire and South Carolina. Polls are mixed in Iowa. recent polls on the Republican debate show that 2/3 of the Repubs think he won. http://www.270towin.com/news/2016/01/15/66-say-trump-won-republican-debate_179.html#.Vp6GziorKUk
There does not seem to be anyone who can truly effectively challenge him. Personally I think it's a sign that the Repub party has gone off the deep end, and fortunately so do many other people, who aren't necessarily progressive types.
So it comes down to the electoral college and getting 270 or more EVs. The way I see it, Hillary likely has 263 EVs pretty much locked up (barring major catastrophe and/or unknown black swans). This includes both Iowa and Nevada with 6 EV's a piece. Recent polling in Iowa show her trouncing Trump there and it's generally a blue state - trending even more that way over the years. Same with Nevada, it was kind of red in the past but has trended blue, if not solidly, close enough to call it for her most likely.
That leaves basically 4 states in play: Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. Just one of those gets Hillary over the top. Right now recent polls in Virginia have Clinton trouncing Trump. Virginia has trended more and more blue over the course of several decades. It's going to be hard to win that one back. Same is true of Ohio over the past few years, but there aren't any good recent polls with those two in it. We'll see. Florida may go red but only if Trump picks a Florida running mate such as Rubio. He might indeed do that. But it's still not a slam dunk even if Rubio is picked. I don't see Trump picking Jeb. Excuse me: Jeb! (gotta get it right.)
Other states that may come into play include: North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and even maybe, just possibly: Texas. Texas will trend bluer and bluer over the next 10 years, but I wouldn't expect it to go full blue until 2028 or 2032.
The problems with this prediction though are that there can be no really great surprises in 2016. The economy must continue to grow - even if it is not as fast as it should be. There can't be any horrific terrorist attacks in the U.S. There can't be other international crisis that deflect the attention of the voters too much. I suspect that there won't be, but there will always be scares and other issues throwing up their ugly head. The other Black Swan out there lurking is Hillary's health. She ain't no spring chicken anymore, and she's had one fainting spell. Of course Trump could have the same problem. And finally there's an assumption that the email scandal tracking Hillary won't totally blow up on her and there will be no smoking gun to indicate her doing something awful that utterly turns the voters off. For the most part though I think the damage from that scandal has already passed, but we will see.
SLD
First, I love Bernie!!!! I do indeed feel the Bern. But he is not a serious presidential candidate and could not govern if he won. And while he is doing well in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, those are basically his only strong constituency. He'll lose everywhere else even if he does win those two. Most democrats realize he is less electable than Clinton; although admittedly, even he might beat the Donald. I'd sure help!
That leaves Donald to win the nomination. Polls show him doing well nationally as well as New Hampshire and South Carolina. Polls are mixed in Iowa. recent polls on the Republican debate show that 2/3 of the Repubs think he won. http://www.270towin.com/news/2016/01/15/66-say-trump-won-republican-debate_179.html#.Vp6GziorKUk
There does not seem to be anyone who can truly effectively challenge him. Personally I think it's a sign that the Repub party has gone off the deep end, and fortunately so do many other people, who aren't necessarily progressive types.
So it comes down to the electoral college and getting 270 or more EVs. The way I see it, Hillary likely has 263 EVs pretty much locked up (barring major catastrophe and/or unknown black swans). This includes both Iowa and Nevada with 6 EV's a piece. Recent polling in Iowa show her trouncing Trump there and it's generally a blue state - trending even more that way over the years. Same with Nevada, it was kind of red in the past but has trended blue, if not solidly, close enough to call it for her most likely.
That leaves basically 4 states in play: Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. Just one of those gets Hillary over the top. Right now recent polls in Virginia have Clinton trouncing Trump. Virginia has trended more and more blue over the course of several decades. It's going to be hard to win that one back. Same is true of Ohio over the past few years, but there aren't any good recent polls with those two in it. We'll see. Florida may go red but only if Trump picks a Florida running mate such as Rubio. He might indeed do that. But it's still not a slam dunk even if Rubio is picked. I don't see Trump picking Jeb. Excuse me: Jeb! (gotta get it right.)
Other states that may come into play include: North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and even maybe, just possibly: Texas. Texas will trend bluer and bluer over the next 10 years, but I wouldn't expect it to go full blue until 2028 or 2032.
The problems with this prediction though are that there can be no really great surprises in 2016. The economy must continue to grow - even if it is not as fast as it should be. There can't be any horrific terrorist attacks in the U.S. There can't be other international crisis that deflect the attention of the voters too much. I suspect that there won't be, but there will always be scares and other issues throwing up their ugly head. The other Black Swan out there lurking is Hillary's health. She ain't no spring chicken anymore, and she's had one fainting spell. Of course Trump could have the same problem. And finally there's an assumption that the email scandal tracking Hillary won't totally blow up on her and there will be no smoking gun to indicate her doing something awful that utterly turns the voters off. For the most part though I think the damage from that scandal has already passed, but we will see.
SLD
