Maybe a Different Angle on the Veracity of Climate Change

[Alcoholic Actuary]

I know most people would rather drink antifreeze than trust an insurance company. But the largest of us (reinsurers) are putting our money where climate science's mouth is.

Major hurricanes now once a decade — not once a century, top reinsurance firm says

Munich-re-to-back-away-from-coal-related-business

http://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/swiss-re-release-new-report-on-sustainable-energy-4250.htm

Just consider that in the near future your insurance rates are going to increase precisely because of climate change - and there is nothing your tiny climate denier brain can do about it. If you don't like science, follow the money. We are not hedge funds and do not make bets of this size based on whimsical data. Think about the total cost to you the next time you hear news like this: White House Proposal Rolls Back Fuel Economy Standards, No Exception For California, instead of posting your 'haha California sux' memes.

aa

 

[J842P]

So now the actuaries are in on it. Who will be next to fall to Them?

 

[James Brown]

When both for-profit companies and the U.S Military take climate change seriously, you have to wonder what it would take to convince right-wing conservatives to take it seriously.

Perhaps we can blame climate change for immigration, terrorism, and the Clinton Foundation.

 

[laughing dog]

When both for-profit companies and the U.S Military take climate change seriously, you have to wonder what it would take to convince right-wing conservatives to take it seriously.

Perhaps we can blame climate change for immigration, terrorism, and the Clinton Foundation.

You have the causation reversed: Clinton caused climate change and climate change hysteria.

 

[RVonse]

I know most people would rather drink antifreeze than trust an insurance company. But the largest of us (reinsurers) are putting our money where climate science's mouth is.

Major hurricanes now once a decade — not once a century, top reinsurance firm says

Munich-re-to-back-away-from-coal-related-business

http://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/swiss-re-release-new-report-on-sustainable-energy-4250.htm

Just consider that in the near future your insurance rates are going to increase precisely because of climate change - and there is nothing your tiny climate denier brain can do about it. If you don't like science, follow the money. We are not hedge funds and do not make bets of this size based on whimsical data. Think about the total cost to you the next time you hear news like this: White House Proposal Rolls Back Fuel Economy Standards, No Exception For California, instead of posting your 'haha California sux' memes.

aa

An honest question to you Actuary. If I live in St. Louis, Mo, how come my insurance is going to go up because some idiot is still building a house on the coast of the hurricane side of Florida? Why does my insurance in the midwest have to go up because dumb asses are building homes in the pine tinder of California? Yes, I know such a question might not be relevant to your OP and may not even be a question the insurance companies want to be honest about either.

But it is surely foremost on my mind when I hear my insurance rates are about to go up. The climate where I live is just fine.

 

[James Brown]

You could deal with an insurance company that only deals with Eastern Missouri properties.

 

[Underseer]

I know most people would rather drink antifreeze than trust an insurance company. But the largest of us (reinsurers) are putting our money where climate science's mouth is.

Major hurricanes now once a decade — not once a century, top reinsurance firm says

Munich-re-to-back-away-from-coal-related-business

http://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/swiss-re-release-new-report-on-sustainable-energy-4250.htm

Just consider that in the near future your insurance rates are going to increase precisely because of climate change - and there is nothing your tiny climate denier brain can do about it. If you don't like science, follow the money. We are not hedge funds and do not make bets of this size based on whimsical data. Think about the total cost to you the next time you hear news like this: White House Proposal Rolls Back Fuel Economy Standards, No Exception For California, instead of posting your 'haha California sux' memes.

aa

Insurance companies do not determine what is and is not valid science.

Oil and coal companies do not determine what is and is not valid science.

Preachers do not determine what is and is not valid science.

Naturopathy/homeopathy snake oil salesmen do not determine what is and is not valid science.

Climate change is a fact. Anyone who believes otherwise is welcome to use their superior understanding of climatology to produce a climate model that generates more accurate predictions than the currently accepted climate model. I'm getting sick and tired of people trying to make science claims without doing the science part. This is getting ludicrous.

Publish or shut the fuck up.

 

[Alcoholic Actuary]

I know most people would rather drink antifreeze than trust an insurance company. But the largest of us (reinsurers) are putting our money where climate science's mouth is.

Major hurricanes now once a decade — not once a century, top reinsurance firm says

Munich-re-to-back-away-from-coal-related-business

http://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/swiss-re-release-new-report-on-sustainable-energy-4250.htm

Just consider that in the near future your insurance rates are going to increase precisely because of climate change - and there is nothing your tiny climate denier brain can do about it. If you don't like science, follow the money. We are not hedge funds and do not make bets of this size based on whimsical data. Think about the total cost to you the next time you hear news like this: White House Proposal Rolls Back Fuel Economy Standards, No Exception For California, instead of posting your 'haha California sux' memes.

aa

An honest question to you Actuary. If I live in St. Louis, Mo, how come my insurance is going to go up because some idiot is still building a house on the coast of the hurricane side of Florida? Why does my insurance in the midwest have to go up because dumb asses are building homes in the pine tinder of California? Yes, I know such a question might not be relevant to your OP and may not even be a question the insurance companies want to be honest about either.

But it is surely foremost on my mind when I hear my insurance rates are about to go up. The climate where I live is just fine.

Missouri sits on the New Madrid fault line. https://www.riverfronttimes.com/newsblog/2017/10/09/yes-missouri-is-at-risk-for-a-serious-earthquake

You are being charged an appropriate amount of insurance for the risk that you (and only you) are subject to. Also tornado and hail activity has picked up significantly over the past 5 years in the mid-west/southwest area (due to global warming).

You are not paying more for hurricanes in FL or Wildfires in CA. But Property rates across the US are going to go up.

aa

 

[repoman]

There is also the ponzi scheme aspect and the possibility of the government backstopping some of the losses.

I would think that the insurance companies might not fully need to take into account the actual damage global warming will do. Kind of scary.

The global warming train has only just starting picking up speed. Only a staggering depopulation followed by carbon sequestration (burying biochar and so on) would possibly reverse it. Our goose is cooked. Just a matter of riding it out for probably tens of thousands of years for our descendants. Yay.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/03/how-long-will-global-warming-last/

 

[steve_bank]

In 40 or 50 years the Trump family will be able to dock their boat at Trump Tower.

 

[scombrid]

An honest question to you Actuary. If I live in St. Louis, Mo, how come my insurance is going to go up because some idiot is still building a house on the coast of the hurricane side of Florida?

I'm not an actuary but I am a biologist with weather as a hobby that happens to be an idiot with a house in Florida (on high ground, block and stucco with impact windows, metal shutters, trusses strapped to the walls, roof deck re-nailed to new codes...).

I doubt your insurance in Missouri will go up in response to Florida hurricane risk. Should a company with exposure in Florida try to offset potential losses in Florida by jacking up prices in Missouri then they should be undercut by someone that is pricing appropriate to local risk.

Now climate change could still impact Missouri property insurance rates. Frequency of severe convective weather and heavy rain events have increased at a statistically significant rate over the middle and eastern CONUS in the last 50 years. Insurance companies are watching more than low coastal and fire prone areas.

I have to ask too, what is the "hurricane side" of Florida? Irma hit the keys and southwest and then did a fair amount of damage right on up to JAX. Wilma hit SW gulf coast too. Dennis hit the Panhandle. Jeanne hit the east coast down around Hutchinson. Ivan was way out on the western Panhandle. Charley hit the southwest gulf coast. That's just the majors that have hit since I moved here in 2004. Southern peninsula, keys, and panhandle are highest risk for a major it seems. Not really a "side" to it.

Edit: Didn't include Mathew because the eye stayed off shore and kept us on the weaker side of the eyewall but we did get some 100mph wind gusts in my county.

 

[James Brown]

From the Missouri Department of Public Safety:

Because of Missouri’s geography, the state is frequently visited by natural disasters. Ice storms, tornadoes, severe storms, and flooding are all common occurrences in Missouri. Since 1990, Missouri has received more than 35 federal major disaster declarations.

I used to live in Missourah, but I'm glad I left. Sounds like a death trap.

Plus, Missouri has fallen under the spell of the Tea Bag Party, and thus is facing massive budgetary deficits. People still haven't received the state income tax refunds they're due for last year because the government doesn't have the money to pay them. Which naturally means that disaster preparedness and infrastructure spending will decline, which will make the frequent natural disasters that happen there be more costly to prevent and to recover from.

Which means that property insurers will have to shoulder a larger share of the burden, thus raising premiums.

 

[steve_bank]

Insurance is shared risk. Teen drivers go into a high risk pool as compared to experienced adult drivers,

If you have a house on the Florida shore or Cape Cod, you will likely have to get a rider along with regular insurance, Or find a govt program that makes taxpayers share the risk.

The Miami area is already dealing with risng sea levels. Manhatten has underground transportation and utlities.

On the local news the UW predicts water may rise as much as 2 feet out in the future. It means a lot of shoreside housing will not be tenable. Much of it high end million dollar homes. It will all be written off, probaly at taxpayer expense.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I know most people would rather drink antifreeze than trust an insurance company. But the largest of us (reinsurers) are putting our money where climate science's mouth is.

Major hurricanes now once a decade — not once a century, top reinsurance firm says

Munich-re-to-back-away-from-coal-related-business

http://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/swiss-re-release-new-report-on-sustainable-energy-4250.htm

Just consider that in the near future your insurance rates are going to increase precisely because of climate change - and there is nothing your tiny climate denier brain can do about it. If you don't like science, follow the money. We are not hedge funds and do not make bets of this size based on whimsical data. Think about the total cost to you the next time you hear news like this: White House Proposal Rolls Back Fuel Economy Standards, No Exception For California, instead of posting your 'haha California sux' memes.

aa

An honest question to you Actuary. If I live in St. Louis, Mo, how come my insurance is going to go up because some idiot is still building a house on the coast of the hurricane side of Florida? Why does my insurance in the midwest have to go up because dumb asses are building homes in the pine tinder of California? Yes, I know such a question might not be relevant to your OP and may not even be a question the insurance companies want to be honest about either.

But it is surely foremost on my mind when I hear my insurance rates are about to go up. The climate where I live is just fine.

Missouri sits on the New Madrid fault line. https://www.riverfronttimes.com/newsblog/2017/10/09/yes-missouri-is-at-risk-for-a-serious-earthquake

You are being charged an appropriate amount of insurance for the risk that you (and only you) are subject to. Also tornado and hail activity has picked up significantly over the past 5 years in the mid-west/southwest area (due to global warming).

You are not paying more for hurricanes in FL or Wildfires in CA. But Property rates across the US are going to go up.

aa

Seriously, what idiot builds a house along one of the biggest and most destructive faults lines in the continent?!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

An honest question to you Actuary. If I live in St. Louis, Mo, how come my insurance is going to go up because some idiot is still building a house on the coast of the hurricane side of Florida? Why does my insurance in the midwest have to go up because dumb asses are building homes in the pine tinder of California? Yes, I know such a question might not be relevant to your OP and may not even be a question the insurance companies want to be honest about either.

But it is surely foremost on my mind when I hear my insurance rates are about to go up. The climate where I live is just fine.

The problem is simple: Politicians who don't like it when their constituents can't afford insurance. They force the insurance companies to spread the cost onto those who aren't at risk in the first place.

 

[George S]

He accepts the 97% consensus and then goes after the common input to all their models. They omit a degree of solar forcing so large that CO2 has effectively zero effect. There is a data set including that particle forcing. They don't use it. All of this omitted forcing becomes attributed to human-cause so their data predicts catastrophe. Chilling.
[YOUTUBE]NYoOcaqCzxo[/YOUTUBE]

 

[barbos]

I know most people would rather drink antifreeze than trust an insurance company. But the largest of us (reinsurers) are putting our money where climate science's mouth is.

Major hurricanes now once a decade — not once a century, top reinsurance firm says

Munich-re-to-back-away-from-coal-related-business

http://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/swiss-re-release-new-report-on-sustainable-energy-4250.htm

Just consider that in the near future your insurance rates are going to increase precisely because of climate change - and there is nothing your tiny climate denier brain can do about it. If you don't like science, follow the money. We are not hedge funds and do not make bets of this size based on whimsical data. Think about the total cost to you the next time you hear news like this: White House Proposal Rolls Back Fuel Economy Standards, No Exception For California, instead of posting your 'haha California sux' memes.

aa

An honest question to you Actuary. If I live in St. Louis, Mo, how come my insurance is going to go up because some idiot is still building a house on the coast of the hurricane side of Florida? Why does my insurance in the midwest have to go up because dumb asses are building homes in the pine tinder of California? Yes, I know such a question might not be relevant to your OP and may not even be a question the insurance companies want to be honest about either.

But it is surely foremost on my mind when I hear my insurance rates are about to go up. The climate where I live is just fine.

You have tornado and idiots as well. The one which build houses which are not anchored to ground at all.

 

[AirPoh]

In 40 or 50 years the Trump family will be able to dock their boat at Trump Tower.