My Vacation Cruise in Asia during the Wuhan Flu Scare

[Copernicus]

My wife and I had booked a cruise from Hong Kong to Singapore on the Crystal Symphony. It departs on February 15. The cruise and flights were paid for in advance. Then the Wuhan coronavirus emerged bringing a wave of hysterical reaction around the world. Don't get me wrong. This flu virus is really serious. It causes pneumonia, and most of the deaths have been elderly people in my age group, albeit mostly in Wuhan itself. It is scary and needs to be taken seriously. Although, to put it in perspective, influenza kills thousands of people every year. I caught it a few years ago and was hospitalized for pneumonia. So I know the dangers. The problem with this virus is that it can remain asymptomatic for at least two weeks while still being contagious. Hence, checking people's temperatures is no guarantee that they are free of the virus.

So now what do we do? We still plan to go on the cruise, which has most of its stops in Vietnam, with one in Thailand and one in Cambodia. The flu seems to be spreading globally, but the worst will likely come when flu season starts in Autumn. Right now, existing strains of flu are probably causing more deaths than this coronavirus. In any case, the captain of the Symphony did not want to take chances, so he cancelled Hong Kong. Our ship now embarks on February 15 and departs on the 16th at 4 am. So we must scramble to get to Taipei, but the cruise line will have major problems in dealing with disgruntled passengers and staff. It will need to reschedule deliveries and shore maintenance issues. We will then head for Halong Bay (Hanoi area) and not have any direct stops in China. The ship itself will end up in Singapore, where we plan to spend two nights before returning home.

I'll use this thread to keep people updated on our situation. Right now, we are thinking to arrive in Hong Kong on our regularly scheduled flight and then catch a flight from there to Taipei. We have face masks, which are of questionable value in preventing infection, but we know to keep washing our hands at every opportunity. Beyond that, there isn't much that can be done.

 

[bilby]

Coronaviruses and influenza viruses are completely different. Coronavirus isn't "flu".

A cruise seems like a bad idea during a pandemic; But there's no pandemic yet, and if coronavirus does become a pandemic, staying home just means you will die in familiar surroundings having missed out on your cruise experience.

I would suggest you go, enjoy the cruise, and don't worry too much about epidemiology. And if civilisation comes to an end due to coronavirus, at least you will have enjoyed one of the last luxuries of the old order.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I suppose you can't go wrong either way. You go on cruise, nothing happens, you enjoyed cruise. Or you can go on cruise. Everyone is infected by that one idiot that had the virus... everyone dies. It'll be on the news. There is probably some wiggle room in between the two scenarios.

As a side note, it is my goal to drown to death in the swimming on a cruise ship.

 

[Copernicus]

Coronaviruses and influenza viruses are completely different. Coronavirus isn't "flu".

That's right, but I didn't confuse the two. Both have similar symptoms, both are viruses, and both have high mortality rates. Avian flu is an influenza virus, but SARS is a coronavirus, as is the common cold usually. Coronaviruses are covered with what look like spikes, giving the appearance of spikes on a crown. Right now, influenza is killing more people than the Wuhan infection and actually poses the greater health risk, especially on a cruise ship. Given that our cruise is in Asia, the risk of the coronavirus making it onto the ship is much steeper than elsewhere.

A cruise seems like a bad idea during a pandemic; But there's no pandemic yet, and if coronavirus does become a pandemic, staying home just means you will die in familiar surroundings having missed out on your cruise experience.

I would suggest you go, enjoy the cruise, and don't worry too much about epidemiology. And if civilisation comes to an end due to coronavirus, at least you will have enjoyed one of the last luxuries of the old order.

Thanks, bilby. We are going to take your advice, so it's on you if we get sick and die. We'll drink a toast to you on the ship (open bar). They also include unlimited internet for all passengers, so I can say goodbye to all my friends at TFT before I go.

I would probably not have scheduled this trip, had there been a perceived threat of a pandemic, but it is all paid for. Unfortunately, we booked economy on Singapore Air, which is one of the best airlines. However, they are only giving refunds now for trips to mainland China, not Hong Kong. They told us that they would do nothing special for anyone going to Hong Kong, but I don't think the risk of using Hong Kong airport is actually greater than for other international airports. Other major airlines are including Hong Kong and even rebooking people without charging a penalty. The problem is that a lot of people from Wuhan visited sites in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, where the ship is going. Thailand is particularly worried about infections breaking out in major tourist sites. Wuhan tourists apparently got around to a lot of tourist sites in Asia while contagious. Singapore also has had some cases already. Oh, well, I'm just depressing myself now.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Saw an article about the issue with cruises now because of the virus.

 

[Copernicus]

Saw an article about the issue with cruises now because of the virus.

The woman on the Costa ship in Italy only had common influenza, which is currently a much more serious problem for all cruise ship passengers. I myself have fallen victim to it in the past and had to be hospitalized with pneumonia after getting home.

See Costa Smeralda Cleared; Passenger Had 'Common Flu'

But the article is quite right that the Wuhan virus is going to have a huge impact on the cruise industry. The cruise line that I am using--Crystal Cruises--only has two ocean-going ships. Although mine was scheduled to depart from Hong Kong originally, the company suddenly changed the embarkation port to Taipei. There are still ships with Hong Kong as the scheduled embarkation port, and they are going to have a hard time finding alternative ports. Crystal was wise to get out ahead of the rush and secure Taipei for its follow-on cruises, as well. Meanwhile, some airlines are cancelling flights to Hong Kong or, at least, reducing the number of flights. So airline companies with a large Asia business will be hit hard, as well.

We were going to keep our original flight to Hong Kong and then get on a flight to Taipei without leaving the airport there. However, we are now looking for alternative flights that do not route through Hong Kong. The problem is that flights to Hong Kong may be cancelled because of the new US 'no travel' warning for China, even though it seems to exclude Hong Kong. Singapore Air told us that they would allow us to cancel our flight without penalty, but they can't get us a reasonable alternative to Taipei. So we are still scrambling--perhaps a direct flight from Seattle to Taipei will be possible.

 

[DBT]

You get to a point where you are too old to worry about dying, because dying is a certainty in the not too distant future regardless, which sets you free to do as you please, take cruises, tour China, walk through crowded markets, or whatever, without a care in the world.

 

[Copernicus]

You get to a point where you are too old to worry about dying, because dying is a certainty in the not too distant future regardless, which sets you free to do as you please, take cruises, tour China, walk through crowded markets, or whatever, without a care in the world.

Yes, but I have not yet reached that point. My inclination is to postpone it as long as possible.

 

[DBT]

Fair enough.

 

[Copernicus]

Singapore Air just allowed all passengers to Hong Kong to cancel non-refundable tickets without penalty, so we cancelled our flight. Then we booked an EVA open jaw round trip on United points, so very little out-of-pocket and no contact with China. So we really lucked out. The airlines are being quite reasonable about this, but the hysteria is above and beyond reality. The mortality rate for this coronavirus is still less than for SARS.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Singapore Air just allowed all passengers to Hong Kong to cancel non-refundable tickets without penalty, so we cancelled our flight. Then we booked an EVA open jaw round trip on United points, so very little out-of-pocket and no contact with China. So we really lucked out. The airlines are being quite reasonable about this, but the hysteria is above and beyond reality. The mortality rate for this coronavirus is still less than for SARS.

Most airlines are either allowing such cancellations or have outright cancelled the flights. Airlines are usually quite reasonable about such matters when the flight involves a disaster area, whatever the cause of the disaster. We canceled a flight into China back in the days of SARS this way.

As for the mortality rate being lower--the R₀ is a lot higher, though--the death toll in China has already surpassed SARS and we have no doubt seen only the tip of the iceberg so far. The trend line for the number of cases is still inflecting up, there's a lot more to come. And given the very even linear nature of the line it looks strongly like a capacity limit on diagnosis and not the true numbers.

 

[Copernicus]

Singapore Air just allowed all passengers to Hong Kong to cancel non-refundable tickets without penalty, so we cancelled our flight. Then we booked an EVA open jaw round trip on United points, so very little out-of-pocket and no contact with China. So we really lucked out. The airlines are being quite reasonable about this, but the hysteria is above and beyond reality. The mortality rate for this coronavirus is still less than for SARS.

Most airlines are either allowing such cancellations or have outright cancelled the flights. Airlines are usually quite reasonable about such matters when the flight involves a disaster area, whatever the cause of the disaster. We canceled a flight into China back in the days of SARS this way.

As for the mortality rate being lower--the R₀ is a lot higher, though--the death toll in China has already surpassed SARS and we have no doubt seen only the tip of the iceberg so far. The trend line for the number of cases is still inflecting up, there's a lot more to come. And given the very even linear nature of the line it looks strongly like a capacity limit on diagnosis and not the true numbers.

I am very skeptical that the earlier SARS figure was accurate, so I am not convinced that the current coronavirus has actually surpassed SARS, not that it really matters. China seems to have learned a lesson about the stupidity of trying to suppress information about possible epidemics. Contrary to their expectations, contagious diseases spread more rapidly when people don't know they are living at ground zero. So it is better to be truthful, no matter how painful the truth is.

One cruise line--Celebrity--has announced that they will not even let people who have passed through Hong Kong to board a ship. So this couple that traveled from the UK to Singapore via a stopover in Hong Kong had a little problem. Their flight stopped at Hong Kong, but it went on to Singapore. They were on the same aircraft and had the same seats. However, they were required to exit the aircraft while it was being serviced. They were then required to go through a security check again before reboarding the aircraft. This took about an hour. When they got to Singapore, Celebrity refused to let them board their ship, even though they had no symptoms and had only been in the airport for an hour. They did get a full refund but had to then turn around and take that long flight back home. It also stopped in Hong Kong again, and they were forced to leave the aircraft and go through security again. Only, this time, the airport staff took their temperature on the way back onto the plane. Needless to say, they were a bit depressed.

So far, we are happy that our flight will not touch mainland China and will go directly to Taipei, where we board the ship. However, we still have over a week to go before getting there, and anything can happen. In fact, a huge Chinese ship from Guangzhou--the World Dream--had three confirmed cases of coronavirus. The ship changed its embarkation port to the same port--Keelung--where my wife and I will board our ship. So we are a little concerned about that, since they could contaminate local folks who will be assisting with our embarkation process. The Chinese Ship had visited a couple of the Vietnam ports that we will be visiting while those passengers were on the ship, so there is some risk in visiting places like Halong Bay and Danang. I expect that Vietnam will have a lot more cases by the time we get there. We will come loaded with Purell, Clorox wipes, gloves, masks, and some eye protection. The vacation may not be as relaxing as we had hoped, but it will be an adventure.

 

[Toni]

Singapore Air just allowed all passengers to Hong Kong to cancel non-refundable tickets without penalty, so we cancelled our flight. Then we booked an EVA open jaw round trip on United points, so very little out-of-pocket and no contact with China. So we really lucked out. The airlines are being quite reasonable about this, but the hysteria is above and beyond reality. The mortality rate for this coronavirus is still less than for SARS.

Most airlines are either allowing such cancellations or have outright cancelled the flights. Airlines are usually quite reasonable about such matters when the flight involves a disaster area, whatever the cause of the disaster. We canceled a flight into China back in the days of SARS this way.

As for the mortality rate being lower--the R₀ is a lot higher, though--the death toll in China has already surpassed SARS and we have no doubt seen only the tip of the iceberg so far. The trend line for the number of cases is still inflecting up, there's a lot more to come. And given the very even linear nature of the line it looks strongly like a capacity limit on diagnosis and not the true numbers.

I am very skeptical that the earlier SARS figure was accurate, so I am not convinced that the current coronavirus has actually surpassed SARS, not that it really matters. China seems to have learned a lesson about the stupidity of trying to suppress information about possible epidemics. Contrary to their expectations, contagious diseases spread more rapidly when people don't know they are living at ground zero. So it is better to be truthful, no matter how painful the truth is.

One cruise line--Celebrity--has announced that they will not even let people who have passed through Hong Kong to board a ship. So this couple that traveled from the UK to Singapore via a stopover in Hong Kong had a little problem. Their flight stopped at Hong Kong, but it went on to Singapore. They were on the same aircraft and had the same seats. However, they were required to exit the aircraft while it was being serviced. They were then required to go through a security check again before reboarding the aircraft. This took about an hour. When they got to Singapore, Celebrity refused to let them board their ship, even though they had no symptoms and had only been in the airport for an hour. They did get a full refund but had to then turn around and take that long flight back home. It also stopped in Hong Kong again, and they were forced to leave the aircraft and go through security again. Only, this time, the airport staff took their temperature on the way back onto the plane. Needless to say, they were a bit depressed.

So far, we are happy that our flight will not touch mainland China and will go directly to Taipei, where we board the ship. However, we still have over a week to go before getting there, and anything can happen. In fact, a huge Chinese ship from Guangzhou--the World Dream--had three confirmed cases of coronavirus. The ship changed its embarkation port to the same port--Keelung--where my wife and I will board our ship. So we are a little concerned about that, since they could contaminate local folks who will be assisting with our embarkation process. The Chinese Ship had visited a couple of the Vietnam ports that we will be visiting while those passengers were on the ship, so there is some risk in visiting places like Halong Bay and Danang. I expect that Vietnam will have a lot more cases by the time we get there. We will come loaded with Purell, Clorox wipes, gloves, masks, and some eye protection. The vacation may not be as relaxing as we had hoped, but it will be an adventure.

Safe travels!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, I hope you have boat travels at all. The cruise lines seem to be getting a little worried in SE Asia. Overall, health issues are probably the least of the worries. Cancelled cruise would be a lot more likely.

 

[Copernicus]

Yeah, I hope you have boat travels at all. The cruise lines seem to be getting a little worried in SE Asia. Overall, health issues are probably the least of the worries. Cancelled cruise would be a lot more likely.

They can't really cancel cruises, just move ships to different ports and itineraries. The last cruise I was on in the Caribbean had been scheduled to stop at Cuba, but Trump blew that option away. So the ship ended up going to much less interesting ports, but still had guest speakers on board who were specialists on Cuba. Passengers are often given some form of compensation when these deviations happen.

The ship I will be on is a fairly small ship and will likely end up with quite a few no-shows--my guess is around 650 out of a possible 850 passengers will be on board. It is one of the best cruise companies out there, so we expect to be treated well and kept safe. They have already announced stringent checks at boarding and a more extreme regimen of cleaning and sanitation. They made sure to pick up extra face masks and materials at a port in Guam. They have also announced that shore excursions will need to comply with stricter cleaning and sanitation rules, although I'm not optimistic that they can do much about the fact that tourist areas are more likely to be infected than other places. We may end up with more sea days than planned.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, I hope you have boat travels at all. The cruise lines seem to be getting a little worried in SE Asia. Overall, health issues are probably the least of the worries. Cancelled cruise would be a lot more likely.

They can't really cancel cruises, just move ships to different ports and itineraries. The last cruise I was on in the Caribbean had been scheduled to stop at Cuba, but Trump blew that option away. So the ship ended up going to much less interesting ports, but still had guest speakers on board who were specialists on Cuba. Passengers are often given some form of compensation when these deviations happen.

The ship I will be on is a fairly small ship and will likely end up with quite a few no-shows--my guess is around 650 out of a possible 850 passengers will be on board. It is one of the best cruise companies out there, so we expect to be treated well and kept safe. They have already announced stringent checks at boarding and a more extreme regimen of cleaning and sanitation. They made sure to pick up extra face masks and materials at a port in Guam. They have also announced that shore excursions will need to comply with stricter cleaning and sanitation rules, although I'm not optimistic that they can do much about the fact that tourist areas are more likely to be infected than other places. We may end up with more sea days than planned.

That's good to hear. We'll remember you fondly.

Or possibly visa versa.

 

[Copernicus]

You may not be getting rid of me so fast, Jimmy. Taiwan has just banned all cruise ships from docking, effective immediately. That means that our ship will not be docking in Taipei next week. We are awaiting an update from the cruise line, as this news is just hours old. Hong Kong and the Philippines are also turning away cruise ships.

The Wuhan coronavirus is quickly developing into a global panicdemic.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You may not be getting rid of me so fast, Jimmy. Taiwan has just banned all cruise ships from docking, effective immediately. That means that our ship will not be docking in Taipei next week. We are awaiting an update from the cruise line, as this news is just hours old. Hong Kong and the Philippines are also turning away cruise ships.

The Wuhan coronavirus is quickly developing into a global panicdemic.

The problem is it's contagious before symptoms show up. They want to avoid it becoming a pandemic. The data out of China is obviously bad (I don't think there's any substantial deliberate deception, but the system is overloaded. If nothing else, look at the infected numbers--the continue to go up linearly. Really? That looks far more like a capacity limit in testing) so we can't really evaluate what the threat is.

 

[Copernicus]

That's true, Loren, but they've already rescheduled the embarkation port to Singapore, which we are much more familiar with. The cruise is now round-trip to Singapore. We may be able to simply continue on to Singapore without extra expense from the airline, since they are flying half-empty aircraft anyway. So we are giving very strong consideration to staying with the cruise, even if it doesn't make a lot of port stops. There are a number of reasons why that remains a consideration for us, so we are looking at our options. The Wuhan flu is really bad, but we will take extreme precautions. The ship we are on is relatively small and will likely have many fewer passengers than would normally be there. That's not to say that the risk is minimal. We are still deciding what to do.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

You may not be getting rid of me so fast, Jimmy. Taiwan has just banned all cruise ships from docking, effective immediately. That means that our ship will not be docking in Taipei next week. We are awaiting an update from the cruise line, as this news is just hours old. Hong Kong and the Philippines are also turning away cruise ships.

Sorry to hear that. I mean, yes... the real sympathy should be reserved for those dying and suffering from the outbreak... but sometimes a little First World sympathy is in order.

The Wuhan coronavirus is quickly developing into a global panicdemic.

Well, one cruise had it, and it has spread to 60+ people. Granted, impossible to tell who had it already. But it does seem to spread easily. Of course, that 60 people aren't all dead either, but it needs to be contained.

You may not be getting rid of me so fast, Jimmy. Taiwan has just banned all cruise ships from docking, effective immediately. That means that our ship will not be docking in Taipei next week. We are awaiting an update from the cruise line, as this news is just hours old. Hong Kong and the Philippines are also turning away cruise ships.

The Wuhan coronavirus is quickly developing into a global panicdemic.

The problem is it's contagious before symptoms show up.

Isn't that still allegedly?