DrZoidberg
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If I understand the Nordstream sabotage correctly, only Russia could have done this, only Russia has the incentive to do it, so therefore... it's Russia?
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Nordstream sabotage
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TV and credit cards
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How about a bit of detail or are we just chumming the water?
DrZoidberg
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If there's any detail, that's more than I know. All EU countries have now dispatched warships to guard Nordstream.
Background. Russia wants to punish European countries for sending weapons to the Ukraine. Since 1990 Russia has made central Europe dependent on cheap Russian natural gas (and also oil). The Nordstream pipe made it easier and cheaper to get the Russian gas to Germany. To the point where Russia has a near monopoly on gas exports to Germany. Putins personal power is dependent on controlling Russian natural resources and selling those abroad. Putin then uses that money to pay off any opposition in Russia. Similar to how Gaddaffi managed to control Libya.
But in the last couple of years new gas deposits were found under Ukraine. That's why Russia attacked Ukraine. Since these new gas deposits threaten the Russian gas monopoly in Europe.
But Russia doesn't want to look like they're blackmailing Europe. So they instead come up with stupid excuses, like routine maintainance. And now sabotage. They could just turn off the tap. But then we'd know. Not like now, when it's just bloody obvious who is responsible
Harry Bosch
Contributor
Agreed. Russia invaded Ukraine when Ukraine threatened its near monopoly of supplying gas to Europe.
DrZoidberg
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Putin is such a caricature of a Bond villain.
DrZoidberg
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Jimmy Higgins
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Well, there are probably a half dozen nations that could have done it. It is very peculiar that right-wing media in the US is suggesting the US (well Biden did it).
It is somewhat difficult to read Putin these days, but it feels like it is a message to the West, nothing you do with Ukraine will change your gas shortage this winter. In damaging the pipe, it feels like a small version of scorched Earth. If Putin did do it, Russia needs to fix their Putin problem and fast.
It is somewhat difficult to read Putin these days, but it feels like it is a message to the West, nothing you do with Ukraine will change your gas shortage this winter. In damaging the pipe, it feels like a small version of scorched Earth. If Putin did do it, Russia needs to fix their Putin problem and fast.
DrZoidberg
Contributor
Could have? A country needs to have the means as well as incentive. Only Russia has an incentive. So that discounts everybody else. We can't even blame this on China. Their economy is shaky right now. They desperately want the war to end so that things can go back to normal. They're not going to do anything to disturb the peace at the moment. North Korea doesn't have the technological know-how. Nobody in Europe would do it because European electricity prices will skyrocket this winter. USA wants Russia not to sell gas to Europe to make Russia poor and threaten Putin's position. But USA is allied to Europe, and if European will is broken, due to a lack of cheap power, USA will lose their most important ally when defending Ukraine. So that's not going to happen.
There's nobody else who has the means and incentive other than Russia. It's like a child denying they stole the cookies when their bed is full of crumbs and they have chocolate all over their face. .
Harry Bosch
Contributor
I think that Putin did it. There is a contingent in Russia that is pushing for Putler to make an honest attempt at a peace deal in order to rejoin the 21 century and restart selling gas to Europe. They want peace and cash. Putler was to save his ass. Dosn't really give a damn about Russians. This is Putler doing what Cortez did when his soldiers landed in the "new world";. Cortez burned his ships so that his soldiers couldn't retreat. This is Putler saying that there is no retreat for the Russians.
TSwizzle
Let's Go Brandon!
So the incentive is to punish Germany and the EU? For what? Supplying arms and support to the Ukraine? Isn't the USA the biggest contributor to the Ukraine? And isn't the Nordstrom gas being sold a pretty big revenue stream for Putin?
TV and credit cards
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US right-wing news says US has the most to gain from selling more nat gas to Germany. True but that fact was baked in months ago when Germany decided to permanently move away from Russian energy. Putin forever changed the world’s energy infrastructure when he attacked Ukraine. So why should the US risk being caught out doing such a thing now, when cohesion among western nations is most critical? There no reward for the US to do this.
US and British intel has publicly announced to the media what Putin is going to do before he does it since before the war. Putin has been on his heels the entire time. He needed something unexpected. Something not not already in Western news sources.
If there is a fault in the West it is in why wasn’t expected sabotage of the pipelines news in the summer when the CIA warned Germany of it?
US and British intel has publicly announced to the media what Putin is going to do before he does it since before the war. Putin has been on his heels the entire time. He needed something unexpected. Something not not already in Western news sources.
If there is a fault in the West it is in why wasn’t expected sabotage of the pipelines news in the summer when the CIA warned Germany of it?
Elixir
Made in America
What Patooka said. Everyone has a motive.
Asked about a possible US motive, I’d posit that the EU, and Germany in particular, is dragging their feet in weaning themselves off Russian energy. Forced withdrawal could speed up the process.
Asked about a possible US motive, I’d posit that the EU, and Germany in particular, is dragging their feet in weaning themselves off Russian energy. Forced withdrawal could speed up the process.
DrZoidberg
Contributor
Less supply means higher price. Putin makes about the same money with lower supply. It'll only hurt Putin long term, because a disruption of supply means Germany and Europe will be incentivised to invest in other power sources. Like nuclear. Putin is no doubt banking on having nabbed east Ukraine by then. Technically, Putin personaly makes more money with a lower supply/higher gas price. But I am sure he needs to spread the love more to keep his friends. So he likely gets to keep less of that money
The new gas reserves are mostly found under Donbas, Luhansk and Crimea. What a surprise these are the regions he has been gunning for.
If Putin had a way to blackmail USA I am sure he would have used it by now.
Jayjay
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"Everyone has a motive" is an oversimplification that makes the whole affair prone to conspiracy theories. I'd say it's like 99% certain that it was Russia, because there was already no gas flowing in the pipes (except to keep up the pressure). The benefit for the US, or Ukraine, or anyone else is rather slim compared to the risk of getting caught.
DrZoidberg
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To understand Russia and Russia's foreign policy it's important to understand that Russian political power has since about 1900 been all about controlling natural resources. Whoever controls the Russian oil and gas reserves controls Russia.
Jayjay
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What I'm wondering is this: apparently the bombs were set weeks before by a Russian ship. This means, that the same ship could have laid other bombs to the Norwegian pipeline, or the internet cables as well. There are thousands of kilometers of pipe/cable to inspect and they could be placed anywhere.
This could be a Russian way of saying that they can push the button and cut off the other gas lines at any time, if the war doesn't go the way Putin would like.
This could be a Russian way of saying that they can push the button and cut off the other gas lines at any time, if the war doesn't go the way Putin would like.
steve_bank
Diabetic retinopathy and poor eyesight. Typos ...
Maybe the Russians on the ship bombed the wrong pipeleine.
Jimmy Higgins
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While the US gains with Germany buying LNG from the US, I can't imagine the US being big enough dicks to pull a move like that to get them to buy our LNG.
Personally, I want it to not be Putin because... oi... that is a bad development. But who else? There is the US, Britain, Paraguay, France, Russia, and the Five Jew Bankers.