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Odds of Trump just dropping out

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Tom Sawyer

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What does everyone think the odds are of Trump just dropping out before November?

This is assuming that the race keeps going the way that it's going now and Clinton is crushing him in the polls, outspending him by hundreds of millions of dollars and all the minority groups are looking to come out in droves, Sanders has come onto the team and is inspiring all his millions of followers, etc and the race is on course to have Trump lose by epic and historic proportions. There's no turnaround which puts him into the lead.

Does anyone think that Trump will find a way to just say that he's being screwed over by the elitists due to their [insert bullshit excuse here] and drop out of the race instead of being remembered by history as the guy who lost that badly?

I think there's a not insignificant chance of something like that.
 
So do I, but I think there are equal chances of a GOP coup.

It's already getting noisy, and the convention is almost a month away. If Trump doesn't halt the slide, there could be trouble.

A virtually unopposed Pres election? Bizarre...
 
Last October he said he'd quit if his polling numbers went down (although he was referring to opponents who were polling single digits). In February they were giving 7-2 he'd quit after Super Tuesday.

I don't think there's a line on that right now, but I'd say it's a longshot.
 
This just in from the Department of As ye sow, so shall ye reap:

Trump will ride this one off the rails with his hand on the throttle. The GOP knows they can survive a Hillary Presidency. They know they can survive a two term Hillary. What they can't survive is the fratricide required to push Trump off the podium at the convention. Even if Trump resigned the race before the convention, the effect would be the same. A great number of Trump voters would stay home.

Trump's going to lose, but that's not the problem. The turnout will determine how many GOP Congressional seats can be held. With Trump in the race, the anti-Trump turnout will make it tough, but a boycott by disgruntled Trump supporters could give the Senate back to the Dems and leave the GOP majority in the House hanging by maybe less than 10 seats. A worse case scenario had a Democratic sweep and they take the House.
 
Horatio Parker said:
So do I, but I think there are equal chances of a GOP coup.

It's already getting noisy, and the convention is almost a month away. If Trump doesn't halt the slide, there could be trouble.

A virtually unopposed Pres election? Bizarre...
Click to expand...

Ya, something like that might be the excuse. If there's a significant opposition to him at the GOP convention, he could find a way to spin that as "well, you elitists are ignoring the will of the voters, so screw you" and play it as their fault that he's walking away as opposed to it being that his campaign has turned off the vast majority of the country.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
and the race is on course to have Trump lose by epic and historic proportions. There's no turnaround which puts him into the lead.
Click to expand...
I think in those conditions he'll keep plugging away on his main political theme: Me! ME! ME! ME!

Free press and millions of people listening to him and when he loses, he can blame anyone he wants to . The RNC didn't support him, the media didn't like him, the voters didn't understand him, whatever.

I think if it starts to look like he's going to win, THEN he'll drop it like it's hot.
 
I have this crazy theory that Trump only entered this race in the first place to help Clinton, that he has pulled off a masterful performance, and that he always intended to hand the presidency to Hillary if he won the nomination. They have a long history of being friends and of him supporting her and Bill, and it would explain so much. He outcrazied the crazy republicans as only he can, and used his celebrity and bold language to push the talking points the republicans always hinted at, but did it more explicitly and captured the nomination.

Brilliant really on Trump and Hillary's part if this was the plan all along :)
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
I have this crazy theory that Trump only entered this race in the first place to help Clinton, that he has pulled off a masterful performance, and that he always intended to hand the presidency to Hillary if he won the nomination. They have a long history of being friends and of him supporting her and Bill, and it would explain so much. He outcrazied the crazy republicans as only he can, and used his celebrity and bold language to push the talking points the republicans always hinted at, but did it more explicitly and captured the nomination.

Brilliant really on Trump and Hillary's part if this was the plan all along :)
Click to expand...

I would say this scenario is as likely as Coca-Cola planning for the New Coke campaign to work out the way it did.
 
Bronzeage said:
This just in from the Department of As ye sow, so shall ye reap:

Trump will ride this one off the rails with his hand on the throttle. The GOP knows they can survive a Hillary Presidency. They know they can survive a two term Hillary. What they can't survive is the fratricide required to push Trump off the podium at the convention. Even if Trump resigned the race before the convention, the effect would be the same. A great number of Trump voters would stay home.

Trump's going to lose, but that's not the problem. The turnout will determine how many GOP Congressional seats can be held. With Trump in the race, the anti-Trump turnout will make it tough, but a boycott by disgruntled Trump supporters could give the Senate back to the Dems and leave the GOP majority in the House hanging by maybe less than 10 seats. A worse case scenario had a Democratic sweep and they take the House.
Click to expand...
The question remains, will turnout among normal conservatives be good enough with Trump. I think one group of Republicans think the answer is no. But you'd think those people would be pragmatic enough to vote down the ticket and abstain from Trump. Where as dropping Trump could lead to a notable loss of turnout.

Regarding Trump's ratings, if you look at the polling, he is actually returning to where he was before he became the presumptive nominee.
 
Horatio Parker said:
So do I, but I think there are equal chances of a GOP coup.

It's already getting noisy, and the convention is almost a month away. If Trump doesn't halt the slide, there could be trouble.

A virtually unopposed Pres election? Bizarre...
Click to expand...

Would not be the first time of course.
349px-ElectoralCollege1964.svg.png

342px-ElectoralCollege1972.svg.png

349px-ElectoralCollege1980.svg.png

349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg.png

349px-ElectoralCollege1988.svg.png

Democrats had a bit of a horrible decade there before Slick Willy came along...
 
Think of all of Trump's slighting references to Mitt as THE LOSER (and a loser who lost what Trump says shoulda been the easiest victory ever.) Then drool along with me for the chance to see El Trumpo lose to A WOMAN in 4 and 1/2 months. Any bets as to what he'll say? Will there even be a concession speech? My prediction: he'll go down blaming the Republican establishment (with just a little truth to that) and the bigoted media (no truth whatsoever.) I tell you, I live to see it happen. The fates can't be cruel enough to deny us the spectacle of Trump losing as a big LOSER in a crunching election LOSS. He'll be bleeding out of his you know what.
 
Bronzeage said:
Jolly_Penguin said:
I have this crazy theory that Trump only entered this race in the first place to help Clinton, that he has pulled off a masterful performance, and that he always intended to hand the presidency to Hillary if he won the nomination. They have a long history of being friends and of him supporting her and Bill, and it would explain so much. He outcrazied the crazy republicans as only he can, and used his celebrity and bold language to push the talking points the republicans always hinted at, but did it more explicitly and captured the nomination.

Brilliant really on Trump and Hillary's part if this was the plan all along :)
Click to expand...

I would say this scenario is as likely as Coca-Cola planning for the New Coke campaign to work out the way it did.
Click to expand...

If it comes to light later on that I was right about this, do I win a prize?
 
Derec said:
Horatio Parker said:
So do I, but I think there are equal chances of a GOP coup.

It's already getting noisy, and the convention is almost a month away. If Trump doesn't halt the slide, there could be trouble.

A virtually unopposed Pres election? Bizarre...
Click to expand...

Would not be the first time of course.
349px-ElectoralCollege1964.svg.png

342px-ElectoralCollege1972.svg.png

349px-ElectoralCollege1980.svg.png

349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg.png

349px-ElectoralCollege1988.svg.png

Democrats had a bit of a horrible decade there before Slick Willy came along...
Click to expand...

Nothing compared to the decade that followed...
dfs.jpg
 
For Trump to drop out would probably take something like Clinton 71% - Trump 29%. I wouldn't bet on it.
What happens in Cleveland will be interesting. What might happen is Trump is short on campaign cash and a ground game and sags out rather than quits.
 
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