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On Deck: 2022

Jimmy Higgins

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Jim Jordan seems too crazy. If Dewine wanted to, this would be the time to cash out his competent Governor chips. Granted, he could lose to Jordan.

I think Dewine would defeat Ryan 'easily-ish', but Jordan could lose to Ryan.
 

TomC

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Is Kasich basically a non-factor in Ohio politics now?
Who?

I liked Kasich. I hope he's not as gone as your reply suggests. He reminds me of the principled conservatives that used to run the GOP. Had 2016 come down to Kasich v Sanders I suspect I'd have voted Kasich. People like him are the only hope that the GOP don't completely collapse into fascist authoritarianism.
Tom
 

Jimmy Higgins

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Is Kasich basically a non-factor in Ohio politics now?
Who?

I liked Kasich. I hope he's not as gone as your reply suggests. He reminds me of the principled conservatives that used to run the GOP. Had 2016 come down to Kasich v Sanders I suspect I'd have voted Kasich. People like him are the only hope that the GOP don't completely collapse into fascist authoritarianism.
Tom
Dude, we are well past the point of no return.

The Log-Cabin Republicans died out in during the W years.
The Reagan Republicans died out in the Trump years.

Over half of House GOPers voted to fuck PA's and AZ's electoral votes. And the state houses, the GOP is even worse. If Sen. Portman isn't running for re-election, I doubt a Kasich could win. No one cares what the partisan Republicans even think these days, it has gotten so bad on the right-wing.
 

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Rumors of Dr. Amy Acton running for the seat.
I didn't know she was a Democrat. Could explain the fallout with Dewine.

I had to do a little fishing around but she appears to be one of the good guys. Her Wikipedia page reads a good American story that should serve her well should she decide to run. It's not going to be easy filling that seat with a Democrat.
 

lpetrich

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Senate Republican retirees

Senate GOP faces retirement brain drain | TheHill
Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-Mo.) announcement this week that he will not run for reelection is the latest blow for the GOP’s governing wing of the Senate, a coalition of policy wonks and bipartisan-minded institutionalists who have been at the center of the biggest legislative accomplishments.

...
“There’s a lot of experience, a lot of knowledge leaving. ... It's a loss of a lot of institutional memory,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an adviser to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

In addition to Blunt, Sens. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) are all expected to retire at the end of 2022.

Each holds a top GOP committee spot. Blunt and Shelby, in particular, are known for their ability to craft deals; Portman and Toomey are well versed in policy and Burr has earned the respect of Democrats for his work as Intelligence Committee chairman.
Some previous Senate retirees:
  • 2020: Lamar Alexander R-TN, Pat Roberts R-KS
  • 2019: Johnny Isakson R-GA
  • 2018: Orrin Hatch R-UT head of Finance Cmte, Bob Corker R-TN head of Foreign Relations Cmte, Jeff Flake R-AZ, John McCain R-AZ (died)
Asked about the trail of departures, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) interjected “all of the institutionalists?”

“I think about just the years of legislating that they have brought to these discussions, it’s going to be a real loss. A loss for the institution really,” Murkowski said.

“Over the years, Congress has changed and we’ve seen different leaders rise, perform and leave. … But it just seems like, it seems like, we're losing so much of that substantive tenure in a very short period,” she added.
Two others who might be retiring are Chuck Grassley R-IA and Ron Johnson R-WI.
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), the House firebrand who supported efforts to overturn the election results, has indicated that he’s looking at running for Shelby’s seat. Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) — who votes with Trump 94 percent of the time according to FiveThirtyEight — also said Tuesday that he’s considering a run for Blunt’s seat.
 

Jimmy Higgins

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Ron Johnson is part of the problem and hardly acting like a brain. The latest wave of Reagan Republicans, I'm sorry, I mean RINO's who otherwise were in lockstep with Trump, are leaving. This helps the Democrats as holding onto a 50-50 isn't going to be easy, especially with Georgia (and their new fuck the black voting law changes) being possibly a lost cause. PA fits with the Dems. Despite the GOP having so many seats up for grabs, in light of the 2020 non-wave, even states like FL (Rubio), North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin don't seem very certain. Dems likely have a decent shot in Wisconsin, but North Carolina is lower, and Rubio seems safe. Ohio is turning reddish-purple. Tim Ryan seems the man for the job, and represents the areas Trump did well (Youngstown area)... and not so well (Akron area)... thanks to wicked gerrymandering. Can Tim Ryan get over the hump? To be determined.

The Dems are a bit tough with Arizona to defend with Georgia. Nevada is there too, but that seems less at risk. The rest are in safe haven states. States like Louisiana and Missouri were, at one point, a possibility, but with the galvanizing of the polarization, shy of Biden benefitting from a economic boom with a successful vaccine rollout, those states are almost certain to stay with the GOP.
 

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While it's increasingly hard to treat ANY Republican as good-spirited, humanitarian or pro-American, the list of Republicans resigning recently and in the near future reads like a list of the more humanoid of GOP Congress-turds. Their probable replacements will mostly be vile Trump-suckers. It is indeed a curse "to live in interesting times." Perhaps the oldest of us will be fortunate not to live to see how this tragedy plays out.
 

lpetrich

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Early Fundraising Numbers Indicate 2 GOP Senate Retirements - YouTube

Senators Ron Johnson R-PA and Chuck Grassley R-IA

Their fundraising numbers are relatively low, indicating that running for re-election is not a high priority for them.

Noting
What the 1st fundraising quarter signals about 2022 Senate map - ABC News - "Fundraising reports could offer a glimpse into where potential contenders stand."

RJ had made a campaign promise to only serve two terms, and this is his second one. CG is now 87 years old, and he will make his announcement in Sep or Oct or Nov this year.

MORE: GOP Sen. Ron Johnson says he didn't feel 'threatened' by Capitol marchers but may have if BLM or antifa were involved

Seems like he watches too much Fox News.
 

Jimmy Higgins

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In other news, Sen. Johnson stunned to find out he now represents Pennsylvania due to typo. :D

Sen. Johnson transitioned from down to business conservative to all out Trump ass wiper so gradually, it was hard to even notice.
 

lpetrich

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2022 Senate Elections
 2022 United States Senate elections
Known retirees:
  • Richard Shelby R-AL - solid R (3)
  • Roy Blunt R-MO - solid R (2) likely R (1)
  • Richard Burr R-NC - lean R (1) tossup (2)
  • Rob Portman R-OH - solid R (1) likely R (1) lean R (1)
  • Pat Toomey R-PA - tossup (3)
The ratings are from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

So the Democrats have a chance to get a PA seat and maybe also a NC one.

Of the others, the Wikipedia page lists as "Incumbent's intent unknown" these Senators:
  • Chuck Grassley R-IA - solid R (3)
  • John Kennedy R-LA - solid R (3)
  • Patrick Leahy D-VT - solid D (3)
Of these, CG is 87 years old, PL 81, and JK 69.
 

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I am concerned more about voter apathy in Georgia, not voter suppression. Sure, the Republicans are trying to suppress the Democrats vote in Georgia, but it's still fairly easy to vote in Georgia. One can still request an absentee ballot without a reason, and we still have 3 weeks of early voting. Voter apathy has been a huge problem in Georgia, especially in the midterm elections. But, Warnock is very popular among Democrats and he is raising a good deal of money, so I'm hoping that enough people will be highly motivated to vote next year. If Stacey Abrams challenges Kemp next year, that might also help motivate Dems to vote. We can't let the stupid attempts to suppress the vote leave people feeling that their vote doesn't count. I've heard that excuse so many times, I'm hoping more people will realize that their vote does count if they actually vote.
 

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Democratic House majority threatened by retirements - The Washington Post
The latest to announce her departure is Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), the former head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who proclaimed her coming retirement Friday after narrowly winning reelection in a rural district along the Mississippi River that supported former president Donald Trump.

Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), who has been exploring another possible gubernatorial run, put out word Saturday that he would be making a “major announcement” this week, potentially putting at risk his St. Petersburg seat, where he ran ahead of President Biden in 2020.

Two other accomplished battleground incumbents — Reps. Filemon Vela Jr. (D-Tex.) and Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) — announced their plans to leave earlier this year, joining Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who is giving up a closely contested seat to run for the U.S. Senate. Several more in competitive areas, including Democratic stars like Reps. Conor Lamb (Pa.) and Stephanie Murphy (Fla.) are also seriously considering runs for higher office later this year.
 

lpetrich

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Val Demings to run for Senate against Rubio - POLITICO
Florida Rep. Val Demings is planning to run for the U.S. Senate, rather than governor, providing Democrats with a big-name candidate to take on Republican Sen. Marco Rubio next year.

For months, Demings mulled which statewide office to pursue, but decided she could do the most good by taking on the two-term senator, according to several Democrats familiar with her thinking.

...
A top adviser to Demings compared her personal biography to Rubio this way: “She’s the daughter of a maid and a janitor who became the first Black woman police chief in Orlando. He’s the son of a maid and a bartender who’s a career politician.”

The adviser said that Demings, who has grown increasingly critical of GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, ultimately became more frustrated with Senate Republicans under Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and their “obstruction.”

“If I had to point to one thing, I think it's the Covid bill and the way Republicans voted against it for no good reason,” the adviser said. “That really helped push her over the edge. She also had this huge fight with [Ohio Republican Rep.] Jim Jordan and it brought that into focus. This fight is in Washington and it’s the right fight for her to continue.”
That will be interesting to see.
 

lpetrich

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Republicans to reportedly shift focus off Biden as they prepare for midterms
noting
‘Biden is not a good bad guy’: GOP rips up midterm playbook - POLITICO
Interviews with more than 25 GOP strategists and party officials depict a president whose avuncular style and genial bearing make him a less-than-ideal foil. He doesn’t induce anger or rage, and at the moment, his White House is relatively drama-free.

In response, Republicans are preparing to break with time-honored custom and cast the president less as the central character in the midterm elections than as an accessory to the broader excesses of the left.
So Biden is like Ronald Reagan? RR got called the Teflon President because nothing would stick to him.
Now, however, Republicans are gearing up to run against everything from “defund the police” to socialism and cancel culture. They’ll hit Biden on gun control, spending and immigration. And if the economy stalls, they’ll whack him for that, too. But the emphasis will be less on Biden personally than it was on either Obama or Trump, the Republican strategists and party officials say.
Instead, they will demonize Congressional Democrats, like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Maxine Waters, AOC, Rashida Tlaib, and Bernie Sanders.
“Because [Biden] is so boring, he’s not as scandalous,” said John Thomas, a Republican strategist who works on House campaigns across the country.

Though Biden “certainly is relevant” as the head of the party in power, Thomas said, “there are bigger bogeymen … We don’t need him as our No. 1 foil.”
So they find him hard to attack because he's boring? But on the positive side, that means that he is much like "No Drama Obama".
 

lpetrich

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House seat NM-01 was vacated by Deb Haaland when she joined the Biden Admin as Sec'y of the Interior.

Democrat Melanie Stansbury wins special election for New Mexico House seat - CBS News
While the margin is still being counted, Stansbury is leading Republican nominee Mark Moores by just under 30 points with more than 70% of the vote in.

...
Still, after a special election in Texas' 6th shut out any Democratic candidates, national groups are holding nothing back in this race.

Stansbury, a state representative who beat a 7-term Republican for her seat, received more than $231,687 from Congressional members and outside groups between April and mid-May. Another $23,300 came in on Sunday.

By comparison, Moores, who has served in the state legislature since 2013, received $43,251 between April and mid-May.
New Mexico House Special Election Results, June 2021 | Voting by District
New Mexico Special Election Results: First Congressional District - The New York Times
New Mexico's 1st Congressional District - Ballotpedia
(numbers: NYT/Politico)
  • Melanie Stansbury (D) 60.3%
  • Mark Moores (R) 35.7%
  • Aubrey Dunn (I) 2.7%
  • Christopher Manning (L) 1.3%
I = Independent, L = Libertarian

Victory margins (winning candidate, D - R):
2021Melanie Stansbury24.6
2020Deb Haaland16.4
2018Deb Haaland22.8
2016Michelle Lujan Grisham30.2
2014Michelle Lujan Grisham17.4
2012Michelle Lujan Grisham18.3
2010Martin Heinrich3.6
2008Martin Heinrich11.4
2006Heather Wilson (R)-0.4
2004Heather Wilson (R)-8.9
2002Heather Wilson (R)-10.6
2000Heather Wilson (R)-7.0
HW was the incumbent in 2000
 

lpetrich

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Using DH's original 2018 election as a benchmark, 2020 had -6.4 and 2021 +1.8

The 2020 Trump bump was real, and it was across the entire ballot, from the Presidency to Congress and to state offices. For the Presidency and Congress, I found that from 538's predictions.

To get an idea of how strong the candidates were, I checked on how well they did in the primaries.
  • 2021: (party convention) ASL 37.2, MS 21.6, 17.1, 9.0, 6.5, 6.5, 1.0, 0.5. 0.5 then MS 51.2, ASL 48.3
  • 2020: DH was unopposed
  • 2018: DH 40.6, 25.8, ASL 20.6, 5.9, 3.8, 3.3
DH = Deb Haaland, ASL = Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, MS = Melanie Stansbury
 

lpetrich

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Here are the QAnon supporters running for Congress in 2022 | Media Matters for America
"The QAnon conspiracy theory was linked to the Capitol insurrection. Here are 19 congressional candidates who have embraced it."

  1. AZ-06 - Josh Barnett - prev
  2. AZ-03 - Daniel Wood - prev
  3. CA-35 - Mike Cargile - prev
  4. CO-03 - Lauren Boebert - inc
  5. FL-14 - Christine Quinn - prev
  6. FL-11 - Anthony Sabatini - state inc
  7. FL-SEN - Reba Sherrill - prev
  8. FL-24 - Lavern Spicer - prev
  9. FL-22 - Darlene Swaffar - prev
  10. GA-14 - Marjorie Taylor Greene - inc
  11. MD-SEN - Jon McGreevey
  12. NV-04 - Sam Peters - prev
  13. NV-03 - Mindy Robinson - prev
  14. NJ-03 - Tricia Flanagan - prev
  15. OH-09 - J.R. Majewski
  16. OH-SEN - Mark Pukita
  17. OR-SEN - Jo Rae Perkins - prev
  18. PA-SEN - Bobby Jeffries - prev
  19. TX-34 - Mayra Flores
inc = incumbent, prev = previous unsuccessful run, state inc = state-office incumbent
 

lpetrich

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Melanie🇺🇸 on Twitter: "2022 candidates most running against seditious GOP and several others who need to go! ..." / Twitter
2022 candidates most running against seditious GOP and several others who need to go!

Vet, retweet them, follow, volunteer and donate! These are our best shot to hold not congress, we should be able to defeat sedition! $2 to what you can afford, if we ALL chip in it will help!
Here is her list of candidates:

@joangreeneaz vs @RepAndyBiggsAZ House AZ
@BrunoAmato_1 vs @GOPLeader McCarthy House CA
@EricG1247 vs @DevinNunes House CA
@LourinHubbard vs @RepDevinNunes CA House
@RepHoulahan vs @DarrellIssa House CA
@KerryDonovanCO vs @laurenboebert House CO
@JesseP4Congress vs @RepFranklin House FL
@AllenLEllison vs @marcorubio Senate FL
@Holly_4Congress vs @mtgreenee GA
@Marcus4Georgia vs @mtgreenee House GA
@ReverendWarnock vs @sendavidperdue Senate GA
@Booker4KY vs @RandPaul Senate KY
@JoshRemillardNC vs @CawthornforNC House NC
@RaleighBowman vs @RepCawthorn House NC
@ava_unity vs @RepMarkWalker Senate NC
@JeffJacksonNC vs @RepMarkWalker Senate NC
@talexander_NJ02 vs @JeffVanDrew House NJ
@MelanieforNM vs ? Election 6/21 House NM
@Britt4Congress vs @NMalliotakis House NY
@Sites4Congress vs @Jim_Jordan House OH
@RepTimRyan vs ? Senate OH
@JohnFetterman vs Vacant Senate PA
@kmforsenate vs @SenatorTimScott Senate SC
@ShawnLassiterTX vs @ronforcongress Elect 5/21 House TX
@thejanasanchez vs ? TX special election 6/21
@AllenBGlines vs @MikeLeeUtah Senate UT
@AustinTSearle vs @MikeLeeUtah Senate UT
@AlexLasryWI vs @RonJohnsonWI Senate WI
@NelsonforWI vs @RonJohnsonWI Senate WI

Some of them are close, but some are long shorts, like MTG's district, GA-14.
 

lpetrich

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Here are the QAnon supporters running for Congress in 2022 | Media Matters for America

At last count, 33.
  • Seven are from Florida, five are from California, two each are from Arizona, Nevada, New Jersey, Texas, Illinois, and Ohio, and there is one each from Maryland, Rhode Island, Oregon, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Colorado.
  • One of the candidates, in Florida, is running for a special congressional election being held in January 2022.
  • Thirty-one are Republicans, one is an independent, and one is deciding whether to run as a Republican or an independent.
  • Twenty-seven previously ran for Congress in 2020. Two previously ran for a state legislative seat in 2020.
  • Two, from Colorado and Georgia, are incumbents in Congress. One, from Florida, is an incumbent state legislator.
 

lpetrich

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Trump getting tougher for Senate GOP to ignore | TheHill
Senate Republican leaders have tried to put former President Trump in the rearview mirror, rarely mentioning his name and keeping focused instead on the Democratic agenda, but Trump’s iron grip on the party’s grassroots is making it tougher and tougher to keep ignoring him.

Mainstream Republicans are getting increasingly caught up in the party’s internal battle over Trump’s legacy, with even stalwart conservatives such as Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) getting called out as insufficiently loyal to Trump or “Republicans in name only.”
They blew two chances to give Trump a huge career setback, by letting him off the hook both times that he was impeached. By not supporting a Jan. 6 commission, they arguably blew a third one.
Trump on Monday warned that Republican candidates who don’t publicly embrace him are setting themselves up for failure in the next election.

“Four years ago, a man named Ed Gillespie ran for Governor of Virginia without ‘embracing’ MAGA, or the America First movement. He tried to skirt the issue by wanting my endorsement, yet walking on both sides of the fence. The Trump base is very large in Virginia, they understood his game, and they didn’t come out for Gillespie, nor did I do anything to help or hurt. He got creamed!" Trump said in a statement through his PAC.
He calls them RINO's, Republicans In Name Only, a name that suggests a rhinoceros, a sort of fake elephant.

He has gotten involved in some Senate races, like endorsing primary challenger Kelly Tshibaka for Sen. Lisa Murkowski R-AK. He also opposes Katie Britt's challenge to Sen. Mo Brooks R-AL. She is a former chief of staff for retiring Sen. Richard Shelby R-AL, a Senator that Trump dismisses as a RINO.

Though Trump likes Sen. John Boozman R-AR, running against him is former football player Jake Bequette, someone who presents himself as “a true conservative who will advance the Trump conservative agenda.” “He’s been in Washington for over 20 years. He’s going on his third decade in Washington, in the swamp,” he recently said.

Sen. James Lankford R-OK has a primary challenger who is supported by the head of his state's Republican Party, Jackson Lahmeyer, a 29-year-old pastor from Tulsa. He thinks that Trump ought to be reinstated as President and he thinks that that would happen if battleground states followed Arizona and audited their election results.

That party will vote on censuring the state's two Senators for not objecting to the certification of the electoral vote.

Running for the Senate in Ohio is J.D. Vance, author of "Hillbilly Elegy". He recently deleted a large number of his tweets that were very critical of Trump. “I regret them and I regret being wrong about the guy.” He was “a flip-flop-flipper on Trump” and he needs “to just suck it up and support him.”

From the article,
Many Republicans, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott (R-Fla.), have traveled to Trump’s Palm Beach, Fla., resort to make a show of their allegiance and deference to the former president.

But McConnell, Thune and other senior members of the Senate GOP leadership have opted not to do that.
Even so, they blew two opportunities to support some faithful apparatchik for the Presidency.
 

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lpetrich

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Grassley Will Run for 8th Term in Senate - The New York Times
notes
Grassley Works on Twitter: "It’s 4 a.m. in Iowa so I’m running. I do that 6 days a week. Before I start the day I want you to know what Barbara and I have decided.

I’m running for re-election—a lot more to do, for Iowa. We ask and will work for your support. Will you join us? #GrassleyRuns #GrassleyWorks (link)" / Twitter

He is now 88, and he would be 95 at the end of a 9th Senate term for him.
In a separate release, Mr. Grassley, first elected to public office as a state legislator in 1958, said that Iowans had encouraged him to run for re-election as he toured the state in recent months.

I’m working as hard as ever for the people of Iowa and there’s more work to do,” he said in a statement. “In a time of crisis and polarization, Iowa needs strong, effective leadership.”
This will head off a primary challenge to replace him.

Abby Finkenauer will be running against him.
Ms. Finkenauer quickly sought to use Mr. Grassley’s long history in Washington against him.

“After 47 years in Washington, D.C., Chuck Grassley has changed from an Iowa farmer to just another coastal elite,” she said in a statement. “Over his nearly five decades in Congress, Iowa has lost over 30,000 family farms, our jobs have been shipped overseas and decade after decade our rural communities have been hollowed out with our young people leaving in droves as he stood on the sideline.”
She was elected to the House in 2018, but got defeated in 2020.
Senate Republicans are still awaiting decisions from other incumbents on whether they intend to run, including John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who would be a key target of Democrats if he does seek re-election.

United States Congress elections, 2022 - Ballotpedia - lists who will be retiring and who will be running for other offices
 

lpetrich

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How Many House Republicans Who Voted To Impeach Trump Will Survive The Midterms? | FiveThirtyEight
Last Thursday, Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio announced he would not seek reelection in 2022. The 37-year old congressman was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, and he is now the first to call it quits.
Of these 10, 9 have been rebuked by state or local Republican Parties, and 4 of these now have Trump-endorsed primary challengers.

Some of them are in states whose legislatures may cause trouble for them by redistricting: Adam Kinzinger IL-16 and John Katko NY-24.
 

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How Many House Republicans Who Voted To Impeach Trump Will Survive The Midterms? | FiveThirtyEight
Last Thursday, Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio announced he would not seek reelection in 2022. The 37-year old congressman was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, and he is now the first to call it quits.
Of these 10, 9 have been rebuked by state or local Republican Parties, and 4 of these now have Trump-endorsed primary challengers.

Some of them are in states whose legislatures may cause trouble for them by redistricting: Adam Kinzinger IL-16 and John Katko NY-24.

I rather suspect that's why they voted to impeach--they knew they weren't going to be reelected anyway.
 

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Trump's spiteful support for Abrams over Kemp sparks midterms fear from Georgia Republicans - CNNPolitics
Donald Trump is escalating his fight against Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, and state Republicans fear it will give Democrats a stronger foothold in the key swing state as next year's midterm elections loom.

The former President's criticism of Kemp now includes hyping Democrat Stacey Abrams as a preferable alternative to the GOP governor, whose crime against Trump was staying out of his attempt to overturn the Georgia 2020 election returns.

"Having her, I think, might be better than having your existing governor, if you want to know what I think," Trump said Saturday at his rally in Perry, adding later, "Stacey, would you like to take his place? It's OK with me."
Given what happened to the state's two Senate seats early this year, the Republicans have a lot to fear. Rhetoric about election fraud may also make Republicans reluctant to vote.
The former President is doing his part to try to shape this future in his own image in Georgia. He has endorsed a slate of Republican candidates for statewide office in competitive primaries. Several of these attended his rally in Perry last weekend, including Herschel Walker for US Senate, Burt Jones for lieutenant governor and Jody Hice for secretary of state.

...
But other Republicans in Georgia say demanding total loyalty is a risky proposition for a decidedly purple state that Trump lost in 2020. And the stakes for the GOP are high, with the US Senate race in Georgia potentially determining which party holds the majority after next fall's midterms.
 

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Adam Kinzinger, outspoken GOP Trump critic, won't seek reelection for US House seat - CNNPolitics
Kinzinger is part of a group of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump during his second impeachment earlier this year and has been a fierce critic of his own party, particularly in calling out misinformation among his colleagues.
Part of that decision was likely his home state losing a Congressional district, meaning that he would have to compete with another Republican incumbent.
n his announcement video, Kinzinger also suggested the political environment — without saying Republicans or Trump — has "allowed leaders to reach the power selling the false premise that strength comes from degrading others and dehumanizing those that look, act or think differently than we do."

He added: "As a country we've fallen for those lies and now we face a poisoned country filled with outrage, blinding our ability to achieve real strength. It has become increasingly obvious to me that as a country, we must unplug from the mistruth we've been fed."

He also said that because of this, he doesn't plan to try to "focus" on that and running for reelection.

"In Congress, I've witnessed our division is heavily rooted. There's little to no desire to bridge our differences and unity is no longer a word we use," he said in the video. "It has also become increasingly obvious to me that in order to break the narrative, I cannot focus on both a reelection to Congress and a broader fight nationwide."

Kinzinger announces he won't seek reelection | TheHill
In a video announcing his retirement at the end of his term in January 2023, Kinzinger recalled his first race in which he unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2010, saying he was fueled by supporters who told him to “be my own man and to never ‘do what they tell you to do,’” a tacit reference to his vociferous criticism of Trump.

“I stand tall and proud knowing that I have done just that,” Kinzinger said. “I also remember during that campaign saying that if I ever thought it was time to move on from Congress, I would. And that time is now.”
Let's see how Trump himself reacts. I don't expect him to be very magnanimous about AK's decision.
 

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2022 Senate Elections | Internet Infidels Discussion Board
Can Generation Z Swing The 2022 Elections? | Internet Infidels Discussion Board

Patrick Leahy, longest serving US senator still in office, won't seek reelection - CNNPolitics
Patrick Leahy, a Vermont Democrat and the longest serving US senator still in office, announced Monday he won't seek reelection for a ninth term next year, after serving in the chamber since 1975.

"While I will continue to serve Vermont, Marcelle and I have reached a conclusion: it is time to put down the gavel," said Leahy, referring to his wife. "It is time to pass the torch to the next Vermonter, who'll carry on this work for our great state. It's time to come home."

"I will not run for reelection," he added.
He's 81 years old, and he is the first and only Democratic Senator from his state. Bernie Sanders is a Democrat-adjacent Independent.
 List of United States senators from Vermont
Anti-Admin / Democratic-Republican, Federalist, National Republican / Whig, Republican

Patrick Leahy has served from 1975 to the present day. The last Republican was Jim Jeffords, first elected in 1989. He became an Independent in 2001, and retired in 2006. Bernie Sanders succeeded him.[/wiki]
 

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Top Democratic challenger to controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert ends campaign following Colorado redistricting
  • The top Democratic challenger to Colorado Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert suspended her campaign on Friday.
  • Redistricting in Colorado altered her home district, putting candidate Kerry Donovan outside of Colorado's 3rd Congressional District.
  • Boebert, known for her pro-guns stances, was elected for her first term in 2020.
...
Colorado State Sen. Kerry Donovan suspended her campaign for Boebert's seat in the House of Representatives after she was drawn out of her Colorado district in the redistricting process.

...
Prior to the redistricting, Donovan's race was competitive with Boebert's campaign for reelection. Donovan finished the first quarter of fundraising efforts this year with over $630,000 on the heels of Boebert's $700,000, CPR News reported in April. By June, Boebert surged ahead with over $1.8 million in the second quarter to Donovan's $536,000, the Colorado Sun reported.
She's now in the 2nd district, Joe Neguse's district.
A candidate is required to live in the state they are running for but not the district, according to House rules. However, candidates from outside of their district can face increased criticism and scrutiny, CBS reported.
An out-of-district candidate may seem like a carpetbagger.

What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State - Colorado | FiveThirtyEight that district's partisanship changed from R+12 to R+15.
 

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Rep. Jackie Speier, Jonestown survivor who has served in Congress since 2008, will not seek reelection in 2022 - The Washington Post
The Jonestown of Jim Jones and his People's Temple.
Rep. Jackie Speier retiring from Congress - POLITICO
“Forty-three years ago this week, I was lying on an airstrip in the jungles of Guyana with five bullet holes in my body. I vowed that if I survived, I would dedicate my life to public service. I lived, and I survived,” she said in a two-minute video announcing her retirement.

Jackie Speier will not run for reelection to Congress in 2022 | TheHill
Speier has had a long career in elected office that began 1980 with a successful run for the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors. She went on to serve in both chambers of California’s state legislature before entering the U.S. House in 2008.

In 1978, while she was serving as an aide to the late Rep. Leo Ryan (D-Calif.), Speier survived being shot five times during a fact-finding mission to Jonestown in Guyana. Ryan was killed during that trip.

...
“There’s also another chapter or two in my book of life. And I intend to contribute to you, the communities I love on the Peninsula and in San Francisco, and the country that has given me so much,” she said.
She's 71 years old, and she's headed for a well-deserved retirement, I'm sure.
 

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Groundbreaking Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson to retire from Congress after serving nearly 30 years - CNNPolitics
Pelosi said in a statement Saturday that Johnson is "a dedicated and highly effective leader on behalf of Dallas area families and the entire nation for her thirty years in the Congress and nearly 50 years in public service."

Johnson was the first Black woman elected to state public office from Dallas, according to Pelosi, as well as the first African American and woman to be the chair of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology.

"On behalf of her many friends in Congress, we thank the Chairwoman for her leadership for the people of Texas and all Americans, and wish her and her family, including her beloved son Kirk and grandchildren Kirk Jr, David and James, the best in their next steps," Pelosi said.
She's 85 years old.

No word on Nancy Pelosi, at least not just yet. She's 81 years old.
 

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List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2022 - Ballotpedia

Retiring Senators (1D, 5R): Richard Burr R-NC 0.65, Pat Toomey R-PA 0.74, Rob Portman R-OH 0.66, Richard Shelby R-AL 0.61, Roy Blunt R-MO 0.83, Patrick Leahy D-VT 0.23.

VT Rep. will run for VT Senate seat: Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat - POLITICO
Patrick Leahy is 81 years old, and he has served since 1975. Bernie Sanders, the other VT Senator, is 80 years old, and he has served since 2007. BS is up for re-election in 2024, and he may also retire. His govtrack.us ideology score is 0.00 (0 = lib, 1 = con).

Quitting Reps (19 D, 11 R):

Retiring Reps (11 D, 4 R): Peter DeFazio D-OR 0.27, G.K. Butterfield D-NC 0.28, Jackie Speier D-CA 0.21, Adam Kinzinger R-IL 0.66, Michael Doyle D-PA 0.28, David Price D-NC 0.29, John Yarmuth D-KY 0.29, Anthony Gonzalez R-OH 0.67, Ron Kind D-WI 0.50, Cheri Bustos D-IL 0.37, Kevin Brady R-TX 0.59, Filemon Vela D-TX 0.38, Tom Reed R-NY 0.56, Ann Kirkpatrick D-AZ 0.35, Eddie Bernice Johnson D-TX 0.18

Reps running for the Senate (4D, 4D): Peter Welch D-VT 0.29, Conor Lamb D-PA 0.42, Billy Long R-MO 0.73, Vicky Hartzler R-MO 0.93, Val Demings D-FL 0.27, Ted Budd R-NC 0.93, Tim Ryan D-OH 0.35, Mo Brooks R-AL 0.73

Reps running for state governor (2D, 1R): Tom Suozzi D-NY 0.34, Charlie Crist D-FL 0.34, Lee Zeldin R-NY 0.63

Reps running for other offices (2D, 2R): Louie Gohmert R-TX 0.75, Anthony G. Brown D-MD 0.28, Karen Bass CA-37 0.15, Jody Hice R-GA 0.88
 

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Dr. Oz announces Senate bid to his millions of followers - POLITICO - "The celebrity television doctor will run in one of the nation’s most important races."
Mehmet Oz, a Republican, will self-fund part of his campaign and is planning to “put significant resources” into the battleground state race, campaign manager Casey Contres said.

His opening ad, set to begin airing on television Friday, takes aim at the government’s response to Covid, a topic Oz has spoken about in interviews over the course of the pandemic.

“Covid has shown us that our system is broken,” Oz said in the campaign ad. “We lost too many lives, too many jobs and too many opportunities because Washington got it wrong. They took away our freedom without making us safer, and tried to kill our spirit and our dignity.”

Lowering drug prices, bringing back jobs from China and establishing a “secure border” are among the issues his campaign plans to champion, according to his website.

Oz’s campaign launch comes a week after Sean Parnell, the GOP candidate who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, suspended his Senate campaign after losing legal custody of his children. The former frontrunner’s departure from the race has scrambled the GOP primary, with Oz jumping in and other top candidates eyeing runs.
Some people are claiming that he is a carpetbagger.
One challenge that has already surfaced for Oz: Republicans are questioning whether, and for how long, he has been a resident of Pennsylvania, a famously parochial state. According to his campaign, Oz has lived in Pennsylvania since December 2020, renting a home in Bryn Athyn owned by his wife’s family. He attended the University of Pennsylvania for both medical and business school.

Oz was previously a decadeslong resident of New Jersey, where he voted in October 2020. He registered to vote in Pennsylvania soon after.
Several other Republicans are also in the race or are considering running, and also several Democrats.
 

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Abrams will be running in 2022 for GA governor.
 

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BREAKING: Stacey Abrams is running for Georgia governor in 2022
The Democrat announced her campaign with a video that highlighted her work in the state since her narrow 2018 defeat to Kemp, along with a message that “opportunity and success in Georgia shouldn’t be determined by your ZIP code, background or access to power.”

Her decision, long expected by local Democrats, clears the way for what could be a titanic showdown between two longtime political rivals. That is, if Kemp survives a fight for the GOP nomination first.
That's Governor Brian Kemp, who won in 2018 with 50.2% of the vote, SA by 48.8%, and Libertarian Ted Metz by 0.9%.

A month ago, her org did this:
Stacey Abrams group donates $1.34M to pay people's medical debts : NPR
Stacey Abrams Clears Millions In Medical Debt For Residents In 5 States - Essence
From NPR from the AP:
The Fair Fight Political Action Committee on Wednesday told The Associated Press it has donated $1.34 million from its political action committee to the nonprofit organization RIP Medical Debt to wipe out debt with a face value of $212 million that is owed by 108,000 people in Georgia, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

...
Fair Fight said letters will be sent to those whose debts have been absolved to notify them. The purchase will forgive the debt of nearly 69,000 people in Georgia, more than 27,000 people in Arizona, more than 8,000 people in Louisiana, and about 2,000 people apiece in Mississippi and Alabama.
That's an average of almost $2,000 per person, and the debt was bought for an average of 0.63% of its face value.

From Essence:
“I know firsthand how medical costs and a broken healthcare system put families further and further in debt,” said Abrams in a statement. “Across the sunbelt and in the South, this problem is exacerbated in states like Georgia where failed leaders have callously refused to expand Medicaid, even during a pandemic.”

A national study published by The Journal of the American Medical Association found “17.8 percent of people with a credit report as of 2020 had medical debt in collections.” It also established that of that population “the South has the most people with medical debts.”
 

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From NPR:
Fair Fight wipes out people's medical bills by buying them up at steep discounts

RIP Medical Debt said Fair Fight is giving the third-largest donation in its history. Philanthropist MacKenzie Scott gave the group $50 million last year. The group has aided more than 3 million people since it was founded in 2014, typically buying bundles of medical debt at steep discounts from the face value. The bills often are purchased from collection agencies that have been trying to get debtors to pay for years. The group has wiped out debt with a face value of more than $5.3 billion.

Allison Sesso, executive director of RIP Medical Debt, said such liabilities often drive people into bankruptcy, can deter people from seeking needed medical care, and can lead to wages being garnished or liens filed on property.

I wouldn't underestimate the mental anguish that people have from medical debt," Sesso said.

Sesso said her group is not just pursuing debt abolishment "but thinking about how we can improve the system nationwide," trying to advocate that hospitals should do more to make charity care available. She also said research shows states that expanded Medicaid have lower rates of medical debt.

"We are not the permanent solution," Sesso said. "There does need to be a larger solution around what we do about medical debt."
From the numbers, RIPMD has forgiven $1,800 of debt per person.

Homepage - RIP Medical Debt
Claiming:
Every day 79,000,000 Americans choose between paying their medical bills and basic needs like food and shelter.

66% of all US bankruptcies are tied to medical debt issues. 25% of all US credit card debt is medical debt. To avoid high costs, 1 in 2 don't go to the doctor when they're sick.
 

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Home | Fair Fight
From its About page:
We promote fair elections around the country, encourage voter participation in elections, and educate voters about elections and their voting rights. Fair Fight Action brings awareness to the public on election reform, advocates for election reform at all levels, and engages in other voter education programs and communications.
From its About Stacey Abrams page:
After witnessing the gross mismanagement of the 2018 election by the Secretary of State’s office, Abrams launched Fair Fight to ensure every American has a voice in our election system through programs such as Fair Fight 2020, an initiative to fund and train voter protection teams in 20 battleground states.
The state's Secretary of State during that election was Brian Kemp, the Republican candidate for governor. A gross conflict of interest.

From its Medicaid-expansion page:
The American Rescue Plan Act granted all 50 states the opportunity to expand Medicaid. Under the American Rescue Plan, the federal government will pay 90% of the costs to expand Medicaid coverage to lower-income workers who cannot afford health insurance. 38 states and the District of Columbia have fully expanded Medicaid, guaranteeing quality, affordable care to almost 15 million Americans. These efforts have been broadly popular across demographics, regions, and party lines.
Listing 12 states without Medicaid expansion: WY, SD, WI, KS, TX, TN, NC, MS, AL, GA, SC, FL

From its medical-debt relief page:
25 million American households (almost 1 in 5) struggle to pay their medical debt in full. The size of the problem has swelled during the pandemic, overwhelming Americans and their families.

Fair Fight has eliminated the available medical debt of 108,243 people. Working with RIP Medical Debt, Fair Fight was able to abolish $212,781,814 of medical debt for these individuals, who live across five states: Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, and Arizona.
 

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Stacey Abrams on Twitter: "I’m running for Governor because opportunity in our state shouldn’t be determined by zip code, background or access to power. #gapol
Be a founding donor to my campaign: (links)" / Twitter

Elsewhere,
Matthew McConaughey Says He Will Not Run for Texas Governor - The New York Times
The actor and author Matthew McConaughey announced on Sunday that he would not run for governor of Texas for now, after months of weighing whether he would seek the office.

In a video posted on Twitter and Instagram, Mr. McConaughey, 52, said running for governor is a “humbling and inspiring path to ponder.”

“It is also a path that I’m choosing not to take at this moment,” he said.
Beto O'Rourke, however, is running.
Mr. McConaughey’s announcement also came weeks after he drew widespread attention for saying that he would not mandate vaccines for young children because he would like more information, adding that in his household, “we go slow on vaccinations, even before Covid.”
Seems like an anti-vaxxer. :rolleyes:
Instead of running for governor, Mr. McConaughey said, he would continue to support entrepreneurs, businesses and foundations that are “leaders,” establishments that are “creating pathways for people to succeed in life,” and “organizations that have a mission to serve and build trust, while also generating prosperity.”

“That’s the American dream,” he said. “And politicians? The good ones can help us get to where we need to go. Yeah, but let’s be clear: They can’t do anything for us unless we choose to do for ourselves.”
He did not indicate whether he would be running as a Republican or a Democrat. He appeared in movies “Interstellar,” “The Wolf of Wall Street” and “Dallas Buyers Club,” and he won Best Actor Academy Award in 2014 for the latter movie. He recently published a memoir, “Greenlights.”

While he was running, he did not say whether he was running as a Republican or a Democrat -- or in some other party or as an independent. Seems like a vanity run to me, like all those runs for President by people who don't have a chance.
 

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Oregon Congressman Peter DeFazio will retire in 2022 - OPB -- he's the Rep in my district. So it will be up for grabs.
“With humility and gratitude I am announcing that I will not seek re-election next year,” DeFazio, 74, said in a statement. “It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as Congressman for the Fourth District of Oregon.”
He is the head of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. He helped get the recent infrastructure bill through, even if it didn't contain very much for high-speed rail and climate-change mitigation.
“He’s one of the most influential members of Congress on infrastructure, and I think I know a little something about that,” U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer, a longtime friend and transportation wonk in his own right, said Wednesday. “It will be a tremendous loss to lose the longest-serving member of Congress in Oregon’s history.”
He has been in Congress since 1987 -- 34 years.

Redistricting means a district more favorable to Democrats than previously, with OR-04 going from R+1 to D+9. What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State - Oregon | FiveThirtyEight
In fact, the new map actually helped the congressman’s decision to retire after decades of a grueling commute that often saw DeFazio flying cross-country to Portland then driving back to his Springfield home. He told reporters Wednesday he had “the longest commute in the lower 48″ and said he’d spent the equivalent of 435, 40-hour workweeks traveling back and forth while in Congress.

DeFazio said he needed back surgery earlier this year, as a partial consequence of spending extended periods on planes.

“There comes a time when you need to pass the torch,” DeFazio said. “My district now has been improved. It’s now winnable by another Democrat.”

Had the district remained a potential swing seat after redistricting, he said, “I would have felt more obligation to run again.
Driving???
 
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