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On Deck: 2022

Jim Jordan seems too crazy. If Dewine wanted to, this would be the time to cash out his competent Governor chips. Granted, he could lose to Jordan.

I think Dewine would defeat Ryan 'easily-ish', but Jordan could lose to Ryan.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
laughing dog said:
Is Kasich basically a non-factor in Ohio politics now?
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Who?
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I liked Kasich. I hope he's not as gone as your reply suggests. He reminds me of the principled conservatives that used to run the GOP. Had 2016 come down to Kasich v Sanders I suspect I'd have voted Kasich. People like him are the only hope that the GOP don't completely collapse into fascist authoritarianism.
Tom
 
TomC said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
laughing dog said:
Is Kasich basically a non-factor in Ohio politics now?
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Who?
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I liked Kasich. I hope he's not as gone as your reply suggests. He reminds me of the principled conservatives that used to run the GOP. Had 2016 come down to Kasich v Sanders I suspect I'd have voted Kasich. People like him are the only hope that the GOP don't completely collapse into fascist authoritarianism.
Tom
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Dude, we are well past the point of no return.

The Log-Cabin Republicans died out in during the W years.
The Reagan Republicans died out in the Trump years.

Over half of House GOPers voted to fuck PA's and AZ's electoral votes. And the state houses, the GOP is even worse. If Sen. Portman isn't running for re-election, I doubt a Kasich could win. No one cares what the partisan Republicans even think these days, it has gotten so bad on the right-wing.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
TV and credit cards said:
Rumors of Dr. Amy Acton running for the seat.
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I didn't know she was a Democrat. Could explain the fallout with Dewine.
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I had to do a little fishing around but she appears to be one of the good guys. Her Wikipedia page reads a good American story that should serve her well should she decide to run. It's not going to be easy filling that seat with a Democrat.
 
Senate Republican retirees

Senate GOP faces retirement brain drain | TheHill
Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-Mo.) announcement this week that he will not run for reelection is the latest blow for the GOP’s governing wing of the Senate, a coalition of policy wonks and bipartisan-minded institutionalists who have been at the center of the biggest legislative accomplishments.

...
“There’s a lot of experience, a lot of knowledge leaving. ... It's a loss of a lot of institutional memory,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an adviser to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

In addition to Blunt, Sens. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) are all expected to retire at the end of 2022.

Each holds a top GOP committee spot. Blunt and Shelby, in particular, are known for their ability to craft deals; Portman and Toomey are well versed in policy and Burr has earned the respect of Democrats for his work as Intelligence Committee chairman.
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Some previous Senate retirees:
  • 2020: Lamar Alexander R-TN, Pat Roberts R-KS
  • 2019: Johnny Isakson R-GA
  • 2018: Orrin Hatch R-UT head of Finance Cmte, Bob Corker R-TN head of Foreign Relations Cmte, Jeff Flake R-AZ, John McCain R-AZ (died)
Asked about the trail of departures, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) interjected “all of the institutionalists?”

“I think about just the years of legislating that they have brought to these discussions, it’s going to be a real loss. A loss for the institution really,” Murkowski said.

“Over the years, Congress has changed and we’ve seen different leaders rise, perform and leave. … But it just seems like, it seems like, we're losing so much of that substantive tenure in a very short period,” she added.
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Two others who might be retiring are Chuck Grassley R-IA and Ron Johnson R-WI.
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), the House firebrand who supported efforts to overturn the election results, has indicated that he’s looking at running for Shelby’s seat. Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) — who votes with Trump 94 percent of the time according to FiveThirtyEight — also said Tuesday that he’s considering a run for Blunt’s seat.
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Ron Johnson is part of the problem and hardly acting like a brain. The latest wave of Reagan Republicans, I'm sorry, I mean RINO's who otherwise were in lockstep with Trump, are leaving. This helps the Democrats as holding onto a 50-50 isn't going to be easy, especially with Georgia (and their new fuck the black voting law changes) being possibly a lost cause. PA fits with the Dems. Despite the GOP having so many seats up for grabs, in light of the 2020 non-wave, even states like FL (Rubio), North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin don't seem very certain. Dems likely have a decent shot in Wisconsin, but North Carolina is lower, and Rubio seems safe. Ohio is turning reddish-purple. Tim Ryan seems the man for the job, and represents the areas Trump did well (Youngstown area)... and not so well (Akron area)... thanks to wicked gerrymandering. Can Tim Ryan get over the hump? To be determined.

The Dems are a bit tough with Arizona to defend with Georgia. Nevada is there too, but that seems less at risk. The rest are in safe haven states. States like Louisiana and Missouri were, at one point, a possibility, but with the galvanizing of the polarization, shy of Biden benefitting from a economic boom with a successful vaccine rollout, those states are almost certain to stay with the GOP.
 
While it's increasingly hard to treat ANY Republican as good-spirited, humanitarian or pro-American, the list of Republicans resigning recently and in the near future reads like a list of the more humanoid of GOP Congress-turds. Their probable replacements will mostly be vile Trump-suckers. It is indeed a curse "to live in interesting times." Perhaps the oldest of us will be fortunate not to live to see how this tragedy plays out.
 
Early Fundraising Numbers Indicate 2 GOP Senate Retirements - YouTube

Senators Ron Johnson R-PA and Chuck Grassley R-IA

Their fundraising numbers are relatively low, indicating that running for re-election is not a high priority for them.

Noting
What the 1st fundraising quarter signals about 2022 Senate map - ABC News - "Fundraising reports could offer a glimpse into where potential contenders stand."

RJ had made a campaign promise to only serve two terms, and this is his second one. CG is now 87 years old, and he will make his announcement in Sep or Oct or Nov this year.

MORE: GOP Sen. Ron Johnson says he didn't feel 'threatened' by Capitol marchers but may have if BLM or antifa were involved

Seems like he watches too much Fox News.
 
In other news, Sen. Johnson stunned to find out he now represents Pennsylvania due to typo. :D

Sen. Johnson transitioned from down to business conservative to all out Trump ass wiper so gradually, it was hard to even notice.
 
2022 Senate Elections
 2022 United States Senate elections
Known retirees:
  • Richard Shelby R-AL - solid R (3)
  • Roy Blunt R-MO - solid R (2) likely R (1)
  • Richard Burr R-NC - lean R (1) tossup (2)
  • Rob Portman R-OH - solid R (1) likely R (1) lean R (1)
  • Pat Toomey R-PA - tossup (3)
The ratings are from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

So the Democrats have a chance to get a PA seat and maybe also a NC one.

Of the others, the Wikipedia page lists as "Incumbent's intent unknown" these Senators:
  • Chuck Grassley R-IA - solid R (3)
  • John Kennedy R-LA - solid R (3)
  • Patrick Leahy D-VT - solid D (3)
Of these, CG is 87 years old, PL 81, and JK 69.
 
I am concerned more about voter apathy in Georgia, not voter suppression. Sure, the Republicans are trying to suppress the Democrats vote in Georgia, but it's still fairly easy to vote in Georgia. One can still request an absentee ballot without a reason, and we still have 3 weeks of early voting. Voter apathy has been a huge problem in Georgia, especially in the midterm elections. But, Warnock is very popular among Democrats and he is raising a good deal of money, so I'm hoping that enough people will be highly motivated to vote next year. If Stacey Abrams challenges Kemp next year, that might also help motivate Dems to vote. We can't let the stupid attempts to suppress the vote leave people feeling that their vote doesn't count. I've heard that excuse so many times, I'm hoping more people will realize that their vote does count if they actually vote.
 
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