One Million Deaths From Covid-19 Possible In America

[Derec]

And if only 10% are infected, that gives us 190,000 people. But I do give props to the 'fuck the victims, there is money to be made' attitude.

Each year about 2.5 million people die in America. 190,000 is tragic, but if that the number of deaths, it will not overwhelm the system too much.
I do wonder about Italy. What happened there to make the situation so FUBARed?
Except for this of course:

 

[J842P]

And if only 10% are infected, that gives us 190,000 people. But I do give props to the 'fuck the victims, there is money to be made' attitude.

Each year about 2.5 million people die in America. 190,000 is tragic, but if that the number of deaths, it will not overwhelm the system too much.
I do wonder about Italy. What happened there to make the situation so FUBARed?
Except for this of course:
View attachment 26584

I wonder how much can be explained by Italy's relatively old population, and perhaps a high percentage of smokers. I don't think that it can, though. Observe Korea, which has a similarly high proportion of old people, and I think it also has a relatively high proportion of smokers.

 

[TSwizzle]

I wonder how much can be explained by Italy's relatively old population, and perhaps a high percentage of smokers. I don't think that it can, though. Observe Korea, which has a similarly high proportion of old people, and I think it also has a relatively high proportion of smokers.

France,Spain and Italy do seem to be extraordinarily high but it’s too soon to tell when making comparisons to other places To say what is occurring. but the older population and the propensity for smoking will play its part.

I saw a report that said there were 11 cases in the Shetlands !! WTF.

 

[Derec]

I wonder how much can be explained by Italy's relatively old population, and perhaps a high percentage of smokers.

I guess both play a role somewhat. But I still go with their reputation for organization.

I don't think that it can, though. Observe Korea, which has a similarly high proportion of old people, and I think it also has a relatively high proportion of smokers.

They are much better organized, I am sure. I just wonder where we stand in that comparison though.

One good thing is that Spring is coming. That may slow down transmission somewhat like it does with flu. While they are different viruses, they are both respiratory viruses and thus share transmission pathways.

 

[blastula]

And if only 10% are infected, that gives us 190,000 people. But I do give props to the 'fuck the victims, there is money to be made' attitude.

Each year about 2.5 million people die in America. 190,000 is tragic, but if that the number of deaths, it will not overwhelm the system too much.

Many more are hospitalized than those who die.

 

[bilby]

No need to duck. My wife concocts an elderberry / honey drink that we've been taking daily. She just made another batch this morning.

I don't know if that is effective. I don't know much about mixing it with other substances or its use for prevention, whether it's effective with prevention. I don't think it's unreasonable to hypothesize it could help with prevention, though.

What I do know: Scientific studies show black elderberry is effective with treatment by reducing the amount of time of some strains of flu and some strains of coronavirus. This particular strain of coronavirus hasn't been tested against black elderberry but the mechanism of action of elderberry is hypothesized to be generally anti-viral.

What I conclude: So, the way I look at it is if we don't know, then it's a 50/50 shot.

No.

Just, no.

That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

I don't know whether powdered rhino horn works for COVID-19. Indeed, I am unaware of any testing of this hypothetical cure. Would you honestly say that it has a 50:50 chance of being effective?

So long as I am not removing other more reasonable opportunities from my choices by focusing on elderberry and not other reasonable choices, I am only adding to the probability of my successfully fighting it off faster. So if I get it and hospital beds are full and no other treatment options, I will take it and cross my fingers.

It probably won't do you any harm.

It also probably won't do you any good; But if you can afford it, and don't eschew other options because of your confidence in it, it's likely harmless.

It's assuredly not got a 50:50 chance of being effective, regardless of your lack of knowledge.

 

[Elixir]

No.

Just, no.

That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

I don't know whether powdered rhino horn works for COVID-19. Indeed, I am unaware of any testing of this hypothetical cure. Would you honestly say that it has a 50:50 chance of being effective?

So long as I am not removing other more reasonable opportunities from my choices by focusing on elderberry and not other reasonable choices, I am only adding to the probability of my successfully fighting it off faster. So if I get it and hospital beds are full and no other treatment options, I will take it and cross my fingers.

It probably won't do you any harm.

It also probably won't do you any good; But if you can afford it, and don't eschew other options because of your confidence in it, it's likely harmless.

It's assuredly not got a 50:50 chance of being effective, regardless of your lack of knowledge.

Hopefully people will be staying busy trying all the "Do this once a day to avoid COVID-19" internet hacks. Should keep them out of contact with others.
For myself and my wife, we're just practicing screaming at anyone who comes within 20 feet of us. We call it anti-social distancing.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

No.

Just, no.

That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

I don't know whether powdered rhino horn works for COVID-19. Indeed, I am unaware of any testing of this hypothetical cure. Would you honestly say that it has a 50:50 chance of being effective?

So long as I am not removing other more reasonable opportunities from my choices by focusing on elderberry and not other reasonable choices, I am only adding to the probability of my successfully fighting it off faster. So if I get it and hospital beds are full and no other treatment options, I will take it and cross my fingers.

It probably won't do you any harm.

It also probably won't do you any good; But if you can afford it, and don't eschew other options because of your confidence in it, it's likely harmless.

It's assuredly not got a 50:50 chance of being effective, regardless of your lack of knowledge.

Here is what I wrote:

...the mechanism of action of elderberry is hypothesized to be generally anti-viral.

and this:

Scientific studies show black elderberry is effective with treatment by reducing the amount of time of some strains of flu and some strains of coronavirus.

When I wrote "if we don't know, then it's a 50/50 shot" it was in this context, i.e.

"if we don't know [IN THIS CONTEXT], then it's a 50/50 shot"

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

No.

Just, no.

That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

I don't know whether powdered rhino horn works for COVID-19. Indeed, I am unaware of any testing of this hypothetical cure. Would you honestly say that it has a 50:50 chance of being effective?

So long as I am not removing other more reasonable opportunities from my choices by focusing on elderberry and not other reasonable choices, I am only adding to the probability of my successfully fighting it off faster. So if I get it and hospital beds are full and no other treatment options, I will take it and cross my fingers.

It probably won't do you any harm.

It also probably won't do you any good; But if you can afford it, and don't eschew other options because of your confidence in it, it's likely harmless.

It's assuredly not got a 50:50 chance of being effective, regardless of your lack of knowledge.

Hopefully people will be staying busy trying all the "Do this once a day to avoid COVID-19" internet hacks. Should keep them out of contact with others.
For myself and my wife, we're just practicing screaming at anyone who comes within 20 feet of us. We call it anti-social distancing.

We got a call from a friend who said our favorite eatery must stop serving sit-in customers for two weeks. So we took the last opportunity to dine with friends before armageddon. Driving there I got my first view of people walking with masks, a couple in their twenties. And they were Asian! I honestly think they should be cited for inciting panic.

 

[bilby]

Here is what I wrote:

...the mechanism of action of elderberry is hypothesized to be generally anti-viral.

and this:

Scientific studies show black elderberry is effective with treatment by reducing the amount of time of some strains of flu and some strains of coronavirus.

When I wrote "if we don't know, then it's a 50/50 shot" it was in this context, i.e.

"if we don't know [IN THIS CONTEXT], then it's a 50/50 shot"

Yes, I read what you wrote.

It's still wrong.

If you don't know, then you don't know. The odds are vanishingly unlikely to be 50:50 in ANY context.

Don't worry though, you are in good company. Most humans are fucking awful at estimating probabilities. That's why we have casinos.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

The odds are vanishingly unlikely to be 50:50 in ANY context.

How unlikely?

The same as rhino horn powder.

No.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There an upper limit of 0.6% Case Fatality Rate (CFR). (As found by the S Koreans testing heavily).

If all 320 Million people the US gets this virus at a 0.6% CFR then 1.9 Million will die. This is clearly an upper bound.

Of course this is absurd.

Yeah, not everyone will get it. However, it's nowhere near an upper bound. What we are seeing in Korea is what happens when you have a functional healthcare system. Note what happened in China--fatality rates elsewhere are similar to Korea, but fatality rates in Hubei were several times higher. It's not that Hubei has a bad healthcare system, it's that it overloaded. That's what's happening in Italy now, that's what's going to happen everywhere that doesn't take this threat seriously enough.

Take South Korea with a population of 50 million. They have only seen 8000 cases, that is an infection rate of 0.00016 or 0.016%

So if the US has a similar trajectory it will have around 51200 cases with about 300 deaths.

And each one of those deaths will be "worth" about 10 billion dollars in economic activity lost in this panic.

You have your math utterly backwards. It's not the deaths we should be counting, but the deaths averted. Take your 1.9 million--and add 10 million more to it, the deaths that are prevented by shutting things down. Now you're looking at about $300k per life saved. That's well below what we typically spend on safety matters per life saved.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I agree with Loren.

It's not just a question of whether you have a good or bad healthcare system, though. It's how early you knew what was going on, how much the founder effect you have, and how many extra hospital beds you have....how seriously does the population take it, etc.

ITALY:

The total number of coronavirus cases in Italy rose to 27,980 Monday, including the dead and recovered, the country's Civil Protection Department chief, Angelo Borrelli, said.

The number had risen by more than 3,000 from the day before, Borrelli said. Nearly 350 more people had died, bringing the total number of dead to 2,158.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...gs-global-n1160106/ncrd1160691#liveBlogHeader

2158 / 27980 = 7.7%. Yes, you read that right: 7.7%.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I agree with Loren.

It's not just a question of whether you have a good or bad healthcare system, though. It's how early you knew what was going on, how much the founder effect you have, and how many extra hospital beds you have....how seriously does the population take it, etc.

ITALY:

The total number of coronavirus cases in Italy rose to 27,980 Monday, including the dead and recovered, the country's Civil Protection Department chief, Angelo Borrelli, said.

The number had risen by more than 3,000 from the day before, Borrelli said. Nearly 350 more people had died, bringing the total number of dead to 2,158.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...gs-global-n1160106/ncrd1160691#liveBlogHeader

2158 / 27980 = 7.7%. Yes, you read that right: 7.7%.

This early in the death rate means little because we don't have a good enough picture. I do agree what we are seeing out of Italy is scary, though.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I agree with Loren.

It's not just a question of whether you have a good or bad healthcare system, though. It's how early you knew what was going on, how much the founder effect you have, and how many extra hospital beds you have....how seriously does the population take it, etc.

ITALY:

The total number of coronavirus cases in Italy rose to 27,980 Monday, including the dead and recovered, the country's Civil Protection Department chief, Angelo Borrelli, said.

The number had risen by more than 3,000 from the day before, Borrelli said. Nearly 350 more people had died, bringing the total number of dead to 2,158.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...gs-global-n1160106/ncrd1160691#liveBlogHeader

2158 / 27980 = 7.7%. Yes, you read that right: 7.7%.

This early in the death rate means little because we don't have a good enough picture. I do agree what we are seeing out of Italy is scary, though.

I am in no way advocating that percent generally applies to other areas. It is due to factors I listed at the beginning of my post. Areas where there is no good healthcare, people not taking prevention seriously, experiencing a founder effect, not having hospital beds may also have serious problems. We are also figuring out antiviral treatment now. Yet another variable...