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Oumuamua was alien probe

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While it's always unwarranted to jump to unsubstantiated conclusions based on sparse and misleading information, I think we can all agree that this is definitely aliens.

This is why Trump was so insistent on creating the Space Force. It's because we're going to need to fight off some aliens. Their first mission will be to build a ship which allows them to fly to the aliens' home planet and demand funds from them in order for us to build a giant wall around our solar system.
 
Personally I want us to be alone just to disappoint everyone who jumps to the conclusion of aliens.
 
Personally I want us to be alone just to disappoint everyone who jumps to the conclusion of aliens.

Personally I have no doubt that there are other civilizations at least as advanced as ours elsewhere in the universe, and probably elsewhere in our galaxy.

I equally have no doubt that we are unlikely ever to detect, much less meet, them. It's a VERY big galaxy, and our SETI efforts are both pathetically limited, and hopelessly misguided.

If we imagine an identical Earth 50 lightyears away, with people on it doing exactly the same things we are doing, then we can be reasonably certain that we would not be able to detect it. What few radio signals we have broadcast into space have mostly been of far too low a power to be detectable at such a distance even if we got lucky and happened to point our best receivers at that particular patch of sky. Only a tiny fraction of human radio emissions have been sufficiently powerful to be detectable (mostly Cold War era DEW radar pulses), and we only broadcast those for about four decades.

Our listening for radio signals to detect aliens, and concluding that they don't exist because we don't detect any is like a Hmong villager deciding that New York City doesn't exist, because no matter how hard he strains his ears, he can't hear any whistle language coming from that direction. Not only would the signal strength be well below his ability to detect them, but New Yorkers typically don't use whistles to communicate.

Radio is almost dead after only a century or so since its birth, as optical fibre becomes a dominant communications medium; And radio signals that are broadcast into space are hugely inefficient, and our engineers take many steps to avoid such waste (unless they are trying to actively ping re-entering ICBM warheads). It would be difficult for us to detect Earth from even a couple of light years away. We are likely never going to detect any of the other civilizations with which we share the galaxy - even if they are relatively common.

As for having actual probes visit us, that's even less likely. The journey time for such a probe would be literally astronomical. As a result, the probability of such a probe arriving while we were technologically advanced enough to detect and recognize it are damn close to zero. Not zero. But damn close. Don't hold your breath.
 
Personally I want us to be alone just to disappoint everyone who jumps to the conclusion of aliens.

Personally I have no doubt that there are other civilizations at least as advanced as ours elsewhere in the universe, and probably elsewhere in our galaxy.

I equally have no doubt that we are unlikely ever to detect, much less meet, them. It's a VERY big galaxy, and our SETI efforts are both pathetically limited, and hopelessly misguided.

If we imagine an identical Earth 50 lightyears away, with people on it doing exactly the same things we are doing, then we can be reasonably certain that we would not be able to detect it. What few radio signals we have broadcast into space have mostly been of far too low a power to be detectable at such a distance even if we got lucky and happened to point our best receivers at that particular patch of sky. Only a tiny fraction of human radio emissions have been sufficiently powerful to be detectable (mostly Cold War era DEW radar pulses), and we only broadcast those for about four decades.

Our listening for radio signals to detect aliens, and concluding that they don't exist because we don't detect any is like a Hmong villager deciding that New York City doesn't exist, because no matter how hard he strains his ears, he can't hear any whistle language coming from that direction. Not only would the signal strength be well below his ability to detect them, but New Yorkers typically don't use whistles to communicate.

Radio is almost dead after only a century or so since its birth, as optical fibre becomes a dominant communications medium; And radio signals that are broadcast into space are hugely inefficient, and our engineers take many steps to avoid such waste (unless they are trying to actively ping re-entering ICBM warheads). It would be difficult for us to detect Earth from even a couple of light years away. We are likely never going to detect any of the other civilizations with which we share the galaxy - even if they are relatively common.

As for having actual probes visit us, that's even less likely. The journey time for such a probe would be literally astronomical. As a result, the probability of such a probe arriving while we were technologically advanced enough to detect and recognize it are damn close to zero. Not zero. But damn close. Don't hold your breath.

Good analysis. I too am skeptical of our SETI searches. We had thousands of people using SETI at home, maybe millions, and years of analyzing got zero returns. We have no idea how to detect any comparable civilization. And while there probably are others, given the vast distances between us, detection is nearly impossible.

For starters, 84% of stars are red dwarfs, and civilizations are unlikely to evolve on such. They have too many flare issues. Only 10% of stars are capable of sustaining long term life so that intelligence could evolve. How many of these though have planets in a stable orbit in their habitable zone? And between spiral arms so as not to be disturbed by Supernova? In the one example where it happened it took 4.5 billion years and likely won’t last more than 10,000 years. Thus there’s a insignificant time period in which to find intelligent life on a planet. Our timing would be one the order of one in four hundred thousand. My SWAG is that at any given time there are no more than 10 comparable civilizations in the Galaxy. Most likely scattered between spiral arms, and thus not likely to be near us.

SLD

SLD
 
Good analysis. I too am skeptical of our SETI searches. We had thousands of people using SETI at home, maybe millions, and years of analyzing got zero returns. We have no idea how to detect any comparable civilization. And while there probably are others, given the vast distances between us, detection is nearly impossible.

I have found the average person to be incredulous when it comes to accepting the size and distances involved, particularly the distance and time it would take to get merely to the nearest star. People answer in weeks or months and when told the actual time and distance are simply in denial.

A decent video on the subject:



[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCSIXLIzhzk[/YOUTUBE]
 
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We had thousands of people using SETI at home, maybe millions, and years of analyzing got zero returns.

And yet I've been doing it since 2003, just because there's that tiny tiny tiny chance that it might pay off ... and why not anyway lol.

Just checked BOINCStats and it's about 4.6 million people that have participated.
 
SETI has had a couple of intriguing hits. But sadly, not repeated;

''A recently detected SETI signal could end up being this generation's version of the famous "Wow!" signal of 1977: an intriguing mystery that keeps astronomers guessing for decades.

In May 2015, a team of researchers using a Russian radio telescope spotted a strong radio signal coming from the vicinity of the sunlike star HD 164595, which lies 94 light-years away from Earth.

The signal is consistent with something an alien civilization might send out, astronomers have said. But that's just one scenario, and not the most likely one, researchers cautioned; the signal may also have resulted from a natural celestial event or terrestrial interference of some sort. [Stephen Colbert's WOW! Alien Signal Response (Video)]

Without a follow-up detection or confirmation, humanity may never know the signal's true origin, said Seth Shostak, a senior astronomer at the SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) Institute in Mountain View, California. (Shostak was not part of the detection team.)

"If they can't find it again, and if we [at SETI] can't find it, all we can say is, 'Gosh, I wonder what it was,'" Shostak told Space.com.

That's pretty much all that astronomers can say about the Wow! signal, a 72-second-long event picked up by the Big Ear radio observatory at The Ohio State University in August 1977.

The 1977 signal received its name after a volunteer astronomer named Jerry Ehman wrote "Wow!" on a computer printout of the signal's transmission record. Ehman made the comment after finding the radio signal was 30 times stronger than background emissions.

Astronomers never discovered any evidence linking the Wow! signal to an alien civilization, and, despite recent efforts from the SETI Institute, a repeat detection of that signal has not been made. Researchers did conclude the signal was coming from the direction of the constellation Sagittarius''
 
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