Angra Mainyu
Veteran Member
Leaving the chances of extinction for later, we are doomed to die. In fact, I'm pretty sure everyone alive today will die some day. However, that is no good reason for us no to invest money in staying healthier, or getting better if we are ill, etc., nor is it a good reason for billionaires, governments, etc. not to invest money on hospitals, medical research, etc.Rvonse said:The point to be made is this. Throughout the history of earth, animal extinction has been the rule and survival has been a rare exception. It might be climate change, an asteroid, a big nuke war, artificial intelligence, or something else not yet considered by science. But we are probably doomed to die and that is not what I am saying, it what the smartest among us (Hawkins/Segan) have said.
As for the odds of extinction throughout the history of earth, there is some ambiguity. Some species cease to exist but they leave descendants. Are you counting a scenario in which, by means of genetic engineering, among others, our species ceases to exist, but the descendants of present day people still exist?
If so, then that raises the odds of extinction considerably, but I don't see the problem with that sort of extinction.
Else, as Bomb#20 already pointed out, there is relevant information about humans that points into a different direction.
With regard to some of the scenarios you mention:
1. Climate change.
That one does not look like an extinction risk. It can make life tougher in some regions, though technology may compensate or more. But even if it manages to kill millions earlier, it seems to me it's not even close to causing an extinction of humans. Let me point out that even in the worst case scenarios considered by scientists, a warmer Earth will be vastly more friendly to human life than Mars is (even after a few centuries of modifications), so if it's possible for humanity to survive on Mars (in the next few centuries, perhaps), then it's possible to survive on Earth.
2. A big nuke war.
That is very unlikely to happen. Even comparatively small ones have not happened. People generally don't want to get killed, see their families killed, their country destroyed, etc. Moreover, even if a big nuke war happened between countries with present-day nuclear levels, at least from what I read, extinction is still very unlikely. Do you have any sources that support a different assessment? Or are you thinking far bigger and widespread arsenals? If so, they might not even be made. Sure, at least most present-day nuclear powers will improve their arsenals, and there will be new ones, but that's not enough for widespread arsenals that are far bigger than present-day ones, and more precisely, big enough to make extinction likely if they were used, at least as far as I know.