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Polls of the Presidential Race

Why Trump — Not Biden — Might Have An Enthusiasm Problem | FiveThirtyEight
Polls consistently show that Trump’s supporters are more excited to vote for him than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s supporters are to vote for him ...

But the significance of this “enthusiasm gap” is exaggerated. Enthusiastic votes count just as much as unenthusiastic ones, meaning an enthusiasm gap would only really matter in a close election. And right now, it isn’t a close election: Biden leads Trump in national polls by nearly 9 points. No enthusiasm advantage — no matter how big — could possibly make up for that kind of a gap.
But Democrats dislike Trump much more strongly than Republicans dislike Biden.

Yes, Biden Has A Big Lead, But It’s Probably Not 15 Points | FiveThirtyEight - the 538.com people argue that that number is likely an outlier, that a more likely number is around 10%.

Nevertheless, Biden’s Polling Lead Is Big — And Steady | FiveThirtyEight
The race between President Trump and Joe Biden is verging on a landslide. That’s not a word we use lightly.

Over the past month, Biden’s lead over Trump has been both incredibly stable and unusually large. Amidst Trump’s unpopular handling of the protests that followed the police killing of George Floyd, Biden’s lead has hovered within a tight band of 8.9 to 9.6 percentage points since mid-June, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
 
Caught a few minutes of Faux Cable Nooz. Some blonde bubblehead (name unknown to me) was interviewing some GOP spokes critter. The argument was that lots of people are lying to the pollsters and that on election day, there will be a large wave of silent Trump supporters show their true colors at the polls. This seems to be the slender straw to grasp that is making the rounds of the far right worried trump is being smoked at the polls.

Meanwhile several surveys show women are abandoning Trump in droves. Women who do not support Trump and lean to not supporting Trump are now at 59%. This ferocious gender gap has been growing steadily for a year now. Trump is now losing older women voters, educated women voters, Independent women voters, and women who have supported the GOP in the recent past.

109 days of this crap to go.
 
The argument was that lots of people are lying to the pollsters and that on election day, there will be a large wave of silent Trump supporters show their true colors at the polls.
For that to be true, it would have to be coordinated. I cannot imagine the average Trumpista NOT declaring their rabid support of Bonespurs, unless firmly convinced of the need.
If it's coordinated, they'd also have to jave told FOX, so they would not ruin it.
If that were true, and i were a Trump supporTing media outlet, i would say Fuck All about Operation Faux Flag.

Instead, i'd be highlighting the Biden-positive polls. I'd be wailing about Trump's obvious doom. I'd be telling any liberal, or rational conservative, that hundreds of millions of people were voting Trump out. It's a done deal. You can stay home on election day. No need to stand in line, or play with absentee ballots.... just let it play out.

I'd be running hard-hitting stories on how Trump would spend his retirement, Pence's prospects in '24, will Eric ever get a job....
 
Pollsters are having problems with people not wanting to answer polls. Lots of people hang up rather than take a few minutes to do a survey. The polls seem to be somewhat distorted by a few Trump leaning pollsters like Ratmuffin, Hill/HarrisX. Toss out outliers like these and polls giving Biden 15%, and we have around 9% for Biden. The chances at this point in time that would have 9% of Trump supporters undercounted is a farce.

The only way I can see Trump winning is if he gets inflammatory enough to scare a lot of people, playing Willy Horton type politics. I suspect Trump and the GOP will be going there, but the covid-19 pandemic is not going away, and trying to destroy ACA during a pandemic is not playing well.

The few states he won that gave him the election are now out of reach. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and most important, Florida. The hope that the hidden Trump voters will save Trumpo the clown is based on hoping the secret voters will prevent Biden form sweeping these swing states. But over the last 6 months, it has just been getting worse and worse for Trumpo here. I will treasure the days after election when the Faux fools will sit there stunned that their secret Trump supporters didn't save Trump. And that America's women voters came to the polls and swung the political ban hammer.
 
Caught a few minutes of Faux Cable Nooz. Some blonde bubblehead (name unknown to me) was interviewing some GOP spokes critter. The argument was that lots of people are lying to the pollsters and that on election day, there will be a large wave of silent Trump supporters show their true colors at the polls. This seems to be the slender straw to grasp that is making the rounds of the far right worried trump is being smoked at the polls.
It is possible. There are very likely more secret racists than there are people willing to vocally support someone who is unpopular at the moment. We're creatures of peer pressure. But the November ballot is a secret vote.
 
Are we on the verge of a 'Democratic tsunami'? - CNNPolitics
That's Trump dragging down the Republican Party with him, giving the Democratic Party a big boost and a good chance at a trifecta: the Presidency, the House, and the Senate.
I think the question is, if we are not on the verge of a Democratic tsunami, what does that mean for American politics and America as a whole down the road?

Heck, if Trump was re-elected, does that permanently poison the well of politics and the Democrats have to become as vile? Or do the Democrats cease in mattering at all?

If trump wins, the rules of engagement change.
 
The race between the hare and the turtle comes to mind.

The race ain't over until the winner crosses the finish line. There are a lot of people out there in voter land who actually resent being asked who they'll vote for on 3rd November. That silent majority will decide if Groper Joe is handed the keys to the WH.

Groper Joe. Have you thought this one through?
 
Caught a few minutes of Faux Cable Nooz. Some blonde bubblehead (name unknown to me) was interviewing some GOP spokes critter. The argument was that lots of people are lying to the pollsters and that on election day, there will be a large wave of silent Trump supporters show their true colors at the polls.

The whole country is pissed off for a variety of reasons, so the idea the people are holding back when responding to a poll is ridiculous. You can't get people to shut up these days, even when you weren't even talking to them.
 
I just saw a WaPo poll that has Biden ahead by 15 points nationally. And, a new Fox poll has Biden ahead by 8 points. More and more people are beginning to realize that Trump is totally incompetent, among other things.

There are also 20 seats that are currently held by Republicans that look like they may go to the Democrats. It's looking more like there really may be a massive blue wave this November.

It seems to be the Trump's poor handling of COVID is the primary reason why people are becoming disgusted with Trump, not that there aren't many other reasons to reject him, but apparently COVID is the last straw.
 
Donald Trump is going to lose because he’s lost his grip on swing voters - and won’t get them back - cleveland.com
Swing voters overlooked a lot before turning on President Donald Trump. For more than five years, they left pollsters with the unmistakable impression there was no such thing as a Trump tipping point.

...
Then, in a sudden and deadly way, it all fell apart for Trump. Those millions of swing voters began to abandon him on those days in March and April when Trump made it so readily apparent to them that he cares far more about winning a second term than he does about the lives of the more than 328 million Americans he took an oath to protect and serve.

Indeed, it was during those dark days of late winter and early spring when seniors and soldiers and women and young people figured out Election 2016 had produced the most incompetent and morally bankrupt president in its history.

...
So here we are, in the country with the greatest health care system on the planet and one of the highest coronavirus death rates. It’s not because hospitals and doctors failed us. It’s because the president lied, passed the buck, dragged his feet and failed to lead. An ABC News/Ispos poll taken in early July showed 67 percent of Americans disapprove of how he’s handled the crisis.

A July 10 editorial in The Washington Post put perfectly: “The nation’s dire situation is made worse by Mr. Trump’s ignorance and denial. He’s still claiming incorrectly that soaring case counts are due to more testing. He falsely and callously says ’99 percent’ of cases ‘are totally harmless.' The president is disconnected from reality.”

...
Watch carefully how Gov. Mike DeWine and Sen. Rob Portman react in the weeks ahead when Trump brings his racist roadshow to Ohio. Both know Trump lacks an ounce of empathy, that his unchecked narcissism, along with his lies and cruelty, have harmed the presidency.
 
New polls show Joe Biden is winning suburbanites by a historic margin - CNNPolitics
  • ABC/WaPo Registered Voters 55% to 40%
  • ABC/WaPo Likely Voters 54% to 44%
  • ABC/WaPo Suburban Voters 52% to 43%
  • Fox Suburban Voters 49% to 38%
  • Quinnipiac Suburban Voters 56% to 34%
  • NPR/PBS/Marist Suburban Voters 60% to 35%
  • CNN early June Suburban Voters +14%
"Four years ago at this time, Trump was beating Clinton by a 45% to 35% margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll among suburban voters."
 
Donald Trump has unified America – against him | Robert Reich | Opinion | The Guardian
Donald Trump is on the verge of accomplishing what no American president has ever achieved – a truly multi-racial, multi-class, bipartisan political coalition so encompassing it could realign US politics for years to come.

Unfortunately for Trump, that coalition has come into existence to prevent him from having another term in office.

Start with race. Rather than fuel his base, Trump’s hostility toward people protesting the police killing of George Floyd and systemic racism has pulled millions of white Americans closer to black Americans. ...

Even many former Trump voters are appalled by Trump’s racism, as well as his overall moral squalor. ...

A second big unifier has been Trump’s attacks on our system of government. ...

Trump’s politicization of the justice department, attacks on the rule of law, requests to other nations to help dig up dirt on his political opponents, and evident love of dictators – especially Vladimir Putin – have played badly even among diehard conservatives. ...

The third big unifier has been Trump’s catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic. Many who might have forgiven his personality defects and authoritarian impulses can’t abide his bungling of a public health crisis that threatens their lives and loved ones.

In a poll released last week, 62% said Trump was “hurting rather than helping” efforts to combat Covid-19. Fully 78% of those who supported him in 2016 but won’t vote for him again disapprove of his handling of the pandemic. Voters in swing states like Texas, Florida and Arizona – now feeling the brunt of the virus – are telling pollsters they won’t vote for Trump. ...
Could this be like 1932? That is when FDR was elected as an alternative to Herbert Hoover, with his totally inadequate response to the Great Depression.
There are still more than 100 days until election day, and many things could derail the emerging anti-Trump coalition: impediments to voting during the pandemic, foreign hacking into election machines, Republican efforts to suppress votes, quirks of the electoral college, Trumpian dirty tricks and his likely challenge to any electoral loss.
 
Could this be like 1932? That is when FDR was elected as an alternative to Herbert Hoover, with his totally inadequate response to the Great Depression.

No, Hoover wasn't fielding a Secret Police Force under the command of a corrupt toady Attorney General to "disappear" his designated enemies, and didn't dispute the result of the election.
IOW, Hitlerian Fascism wasn't an option on the table for Americans in 1932.
 
The race between the hare and the turtle comes to mind.

The race ain't over until the winner crosses the finish line. There are a lot of people out there in voter land who actually resent being asked who they'll vote for on 3rd November. That silent majority will decide if Groper Joe is handed the keys to the WH.

Groper Joe. Have you thought this one through?
Have you met angelo?
 
The race between the hare and the turtle comes to mind.

The race ain't over until the winner crosses the finish line. There are a lot of people out there in voter land who actually resent being asked who they'll vote for on 3rd November. That silent majority will decide if Groper Joe is handed the keys to the WH.

Groper Joe. Have you thought this one through?
Have you met angelo?

A big fan of raper Don.
Groping is for amateurs.
 
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