lpetrich
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Why Trump — Not Biden — Might Have An Enthusiasm Problem | FiveThirtyEight
Yes, Biden Has A Big Lead, But It’s Probably Not 15 Points | FiveThirtyEight - the 538.com people argue that that number is likely an outlier, that a more likely number is around 10%.
Nevertheless, Biden’s Polling Lead Is Big — And Steady | FiveThirtyEight
But Democrats dislike Trump much more strongly than Republicans dislike Biden.Polls consistently show that Trump’s supporters are more excited to vote for him than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s supporters are to vote for him ...
But the significance of this “enthusiasm gap” is exaggerated. Enthusiastic votes count just as much as unenthusiastic ones, meaning an enthusiasm gap would only really matter in a close election. And right now, it isn’t a close election: Biden leads Trump in national polls by nearly 9 points. No enthusiasm advantage — no matter how big — could possibly make up for that kind of a gap.
Yes, Biden Has A Big Lead, But It’s Probably Not 15 Points | FiveThirtyEight - the 538.com people argue that that number is likely an outlier, that a more likely number is around 10%.
Nevertheless, Biden’s Polling Lead Is Big — And Steady | FiveThirtyEight
The race between President Trump and Joe Biden is verging on a landslide. That’s not a word we use lightly.
Over the past month, Biden’s lead over Trump has been both incredibly stable and unusually large. Amidst Trump’s unpopular handling of the protests that followed the police killing of George Floyd, Biden’s lead has hovered within a tight band of 8.9 to 9.6 percentage points since mid-June, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.