Population

[steve_bank]

Fro, a BBC report tonight global population is expected to peak in around 40 years and then drastically decline, except sub Saharan Africa.

Major causes are industrialization reducing the need to have kids to support you as you age, opportunities for women and normalizing single women in the work force, and the cost of raising children.

China is in trouble economically. Population expected to decline as much as 50% which will shrink the economy. Similar with Japan. Aging population and declining young people to support retirement.

China went from 1 child to 2 child and limits now encourages 3 children per couple. The aggressively enforced past 1 chid program has resulted in declining young people today affecting the work force.

Free market capitalism based on growth appears to be headed for trouble.

The program was from China. The people interviewed sounded a lot like the west in general. A middle class where both men and women do not want kids and opt for careers.

The forecast is what it is, but there will still be too many people.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Free market capitalism based on growth appears to be headed for trouble.

People keep saying that and it keeps not being true. What free market capitalism has going for it is that it works even though the rulers are incompetent and apart from cartell formation it's inherently self regulating.

Why would the free market not also sort this out?

 

[untermensche]

Free market capitalism is another word for exploitation of the weak by the strong.

That works to a point.

Greed makes it collapse.

But when capitalism collapses as it continually does the capitalists are the people with no clue how to fix it.

 

[steve_bank]

I agree that one of the benefits of free market capitalism is that it runs by itself generally without govt direct action.

However business can not grow unless population grows. From the BBC report China is starting to have a problem with labor.

When the American birth rate declined it was immigration that fueled the economy. A fact overlooked by Trump and his followers.

Hypothetical, how can you start a new business if everyone is employed?

 

[Politesse]

People keep saying that and it keeps not being true. What free market capitalism has going for it is that it works even though the rulers are incompetent and apart from cartell formation it's inherently self regulating.

Evidence?

Capitalist markets crash all the time...

 

[Bomb#20]

I agree that one of the benefits of free market capitalism is that it runs by itself generally without govt direct action.

However business can not grow unless population grows.

Unless business sells more stuff to the same number of people as before, by, you know, raising the standard of living.

From the BBC report China is starting to have a problem with labor.

When the American birth rate declined it was immigration that fueled the economy.

Well, that, and innovation, and falling interest rates, and ...

A fact overlooked by Trump and his followers.

Hypothetical, how can you start a new business if everyone is employed?

Hypothetically, by offering already employed people a raise, or better working conditions, or more fun jobs?

 

[Bomb#20]

Why would the free market not also sort this out?

Funny you should ask...

Free market capitalism is another word for exploitation of the weak by the strong. ... But when capitalism collapses as it continually does the capitalists are the people with no clue how to fix it.

Why would the free market not also sort this out?

Because the population is full of religious zealots, who due to non-evidence-based ideological motivations won't allow the free market to sort it out. For example, the free market solution to an awful lot of the sustainability problems in mankind's current activities is painfully obvious -- nuclear power -- but millions of politically influential delusional people keep demanding that we instead use more dangerous energy sources. Why? Because safety is their highest priority!!! How the heck is the free market supposed to sort out that kind of problem?

 

[skepticalbip]

I agree that one of the benefits of free market capitalism is that it runs by itself generally without govt direct action.

However business can not grow unless population grows. From the BBC report China is starting to have a problem with labor.

Capitalism does not require unlimited growth.

Someone who grows potatoes and sells them is a capitalist. Their business can only grow to the point that they grow and sell all the potatoes their little farm can produce. Such a capitalistic business can survive and provide a living for generations of the family.

The same for any business; auto repair, pottery, commercial fishing, etc. etc.

 

[DrZoidberg]

People keep saying that and it keeps not being true. What free market capitalism has going for it is that it works even though the rulers are incompetent and apart from cartell formation it's inherently self regulating.

Evidence?

Capitalist markets crash all the time...

Yes, yet here we are, capitalism still going strong, outperforming every other system.

I never said capitalism isn't a horribly cruel and flawed system. I'm just saying that it works.

 

[skepticalbip]

People keep saying that and it keeps not being true. What free market capitalism has going for it is that it works even though the rulers are incompetent and apart from cartell formation it's inherently self regulating.

Evidence?

Capitalist markets crash all the time...

Yes, yet here we are, capitalism still going strong, outperforming every other system.

I never said capitalism isn't a horribly cruel and flawed system. I'm just saying that it works.

It is capitalism (the black market) that makes socialist economies work as long as they do. Without the black market (capitalistic free trade), the Soviet Union would have collapsed much earlier than it did. The black market (capitalism) is the only thing that allows the majority of people in Venezuela today to survive.

 

[Treedbear]

According to Worldometers website the world population was increasing at a rate of 1.46% in 1994. In 2020 the rate had declined to 1.05% and the population was 7,794,798,739. The approximate yearly change in the rate has been a very steady -.02% over that period. Therefore we might assume it will take about 52 years to get to a zero growth rate if the trend continues. Someone with better math skills than me can calculate what the population will be after 52 years. I'm thinking about 8.43 billion, or 8% more than today.

 

[bilby]

Fro, a BBC report tonight global population is expected to peak in around 40 years and then drastically decline, except sub Saharan Africa.

Major causes are industrialization reducing the need to have kids to support you as you age, opportunities for women and normalizing single women in the work force, and the cost of raising children.

China is in trouble economically. Population expected to decline as much as 50% which will shrink the economy. Similar with Japan. Aging population and declining young people to support retirement.

China went from 1 child to 2 child and limits now encourages 3 children per couple. The aggressively enforced past 1 chid program has resulted in declining young people today affecting the work force.

Free market capitalism based on growth appears to be headed for trouble.

The program was from China. The people interviewed sounded a lot like the west in general. A middle class where both men and women do not want kids and opt for careers.

The forecast is what it is, but there will still be too many people.

Too many for what?

 

[bilby]

I agree that one of the benefits of free market capitalism is that it runs by itself generally without govt direct action.

However business can not grow unless population grows. From the BBC report China is starting to have a problem with labor.

When the American birth rate declined it was immigration that fueled the economy. A fact overlooked by Trump and his followers.

Hypothetical, how can you start a new business if everyone is employed?

Economic growth doesn't require population growth.

Economic growth only requires growth in the total value of goods and services provided to consumers. It has MASSIVELY outstripped population growth in the twentieth century, and continues to do so in the twenty first, despite population declines in the developed world.

Growth in population and growth in resource consumption CAN lead to economic growth; But neither is necessary for economic growth to occur.

 

[Politesse]

I agree that one of the benefits of free market capitalism is that it runs by itself generally without govt direct action.

However business can not grow unless population grows. From the BBC report China is starting to have a problem with labor.

Capitalism does not require unlimited growth.

Someone who grows potatoes and sells them is a capitalist. Their business can only grow to the point that they grow and sell all the potatoes their little farm can produce. Such a capitalistic business can survive and provide a living for generations of the family.

The same for any business; auto repair, pottery, commercial fishing, etc. etc.

Oh? And how is the small potato farm business doing these days? Refusing subsidies, I assume?

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/ne...-worry-struggles-could-last-past-the-pandemic

https://www.farmprogress.com/water/farm-groups-seek-49-billion-western-water-forests

https://localnews8.com/news/idaho/2...could-mean-lost-crops-for-east-idaho-farmers/

https://www.perishablenews.com/prod...art-senate-talks-on-agriculture-labor-reform/

https://apnews.com/article/agriculture-court-decisions-idaho-aa04632b027c7ff1b6332d6fe9f68021

“It’s unclear if we’re even going to be able to stay in business," said Doug Hess.

Hess' family has farmed his land since the 1800s.

“When you look around, you realize you’re actually farming with not your equity but your grandfather's, your father's equity," Hess said.

 

[skepticalbip]

Oh? And how is the small potato farm business doing these days? Refusing subsidies, I assume?

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/ne...-worry-struggles-could-last-past-the-pandemic

https://www.farmprogress.com/water/farm-groups-seek-49-billion-western-water-forests

https://localnews8.com/news/idaho/2...could-mean-lost-crops-for-east-idaho-farmers/

https://www.perishablenews.com/prod...art-senate-talks-on-agriculture-labor-reform/

https://apnews.com/article/agriculture-court-decisions-idaho-aa04632b027c7ff1b6332d6fe9f68021

“It’s unclear if we’re even going to be able to stay in business," said Doug Hess.

Hess' family has farmed his land since the 1800s.

“When you look around, you realize you’re actually farming with not your equity but your grandfather's, your father's equity," Hess said.

All businesses don't last forever. A business failing does not mean capitalism failed... it means that particular business failed while others continue and yet others start up. Yours is the logical fallacy of confusing a specific for the general.

The Hess case you cite speaks quite well for how well capitalism worked. That particular business lasted over two hundred years before a manager came along that wasn't able to cope. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics only lasted about eighty years before the whole system collapsed.

 

[Politesse]

Oh? And how is the small potato farm business doing these days? Refusing subsidies, I assume?

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/ne...-worry-struggles-could-last-past-the-pandemic

https://www.farmprogress.com/water/farm-groups-seek-49-billion-western-water-forests

https://localnews8.com/news/idaho/2...could-mean-lost-crops-for-east-idaho-farmers/

https://www.perishablenews.com/prod...art-senate-talks-on-agriculture-labor-reform/

https://apnews.com/article/agriculture-court-decisions-idaho-aa04632b027c7ff1b6332d6fe9f68021

“It’s unclear if we’re even going to be able to stay in business," said Doug Hess.

Hess' family has farmed his land since the 1800s.

“When you look around, you realize you’re actually farming with not your equity but your grandfather's, your father's equity," Hess said.

All businesses don't last forever. A business failing does not mean capitalism failed... it means that particular business failed while others continue and yet others start up. Yours is the logical fallacy of confusing a specific for the general.

The Hess case you cite speaks quite well for how well capitalism worked. That business lasted over two hundred years before a manager came along that wasn't able to cope. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics only lasted about eighty years.

Interesting how you change your claim to fit the challenge.

 

[skepticalbip]

All businesses don't last forever. A business failing does not mean capitalism failed... it means that particular business failed while others continue and yet others start up. Yours is the logical fallacy of confusing a specific for the general.

The Hess case you cite speaks quite well for how well capitalism worked. That business lasted over two hundred years before a manager came along that wasn't able to cope. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics only lasted about eighty years.

Interesting how you change your claim to fit the challenge.

WTF?

I never claimed that all businesses in a capitalist system is forever successful. My claim is that capitalism works. And your Hess citation supports my claim that a successful business can support a family for generations... two hundred years of that business did indeed support several generations of the Hess family.

 

[Valjean]

Too many for what?

For the planet's carrying capacity. We're well above that already.

 

[bilby]

Too many for what?

For the planet's carrying capacity. We're well above that already.

That's the received wisdom. Is there good evidence that it's true? Or is it just a widely held belief?

 

[Swammerdami]

Too many for what?

For the planet's carrying capacity. We're well above that already.

That's the received wisdom. Is there good evidence that it's true? Or is it just a widely held belief?

It seems clear that there are trends in place that cannot be sustained. The warming effect of increasing CO2 is an obvious example. Deterioration of ocean ecology is another.

Now, future technology might solve these problems. Proving that technology will NOT solve these problems is almost impossible! Who knows? Perhaps Professor Bilby will be advertising a Magic Wand just next month!