lpetrich
Contributor
Worse than Lovecraft: What if the Old Ones were real, but they’re all extinct? by PZ Myers
The Silurian hypothesis: would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record?
They then get into what would be a good geological marker, and they decide on variations in isotope fractions. For instance, biological carbon is depleted in C-13 relative to C-12, and a big injection of biological carbon into the atmosphere makes its C-13 fraction go down.
Humanity's domestic animal and plant species would become well-represented, and also commensal and nuisance species like pigeons and rats.
We have produced a lot of synthetic organic compounds, including halogenated ones. Carbon-chlorine ones are stronger than carbon-carbon ones, meaning that halogenated organics could survive in sediments.
The discussion neglected what macroscopic artifacts could survive. On land, they would be vulnerable to erosion, but those on continental shelves and other sediment-receiving areas could preserve a variety of objects, especially ones that do not rot or corrode. Rock-like ones like bricks and cinderblocks and glass objects and ceramic objects could survive very well. Concrete may also survive fairly well, as may the less reactive metals like copper and silver and gold. The more reactive metals will likely corrode, though aluminum may be protected by what happens now: becoming covered by a thin layer of aluminum oxide. Iron, however, will produce big rust spots. Wood could get fossilized if its gets mineralized, in the fashion of petrified logs.
The authors then discussed events like the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) oceanic anoxic events, and similar events. The PETM and similar events were big warming events, with lots of biological carbon released into the atmosphere as CO2 and CH4 and the like.
Finally, "We name the hypothesis after a 1970 episode of the British science fiction TV series Doctor Who where a long-buried race of intelligent reptiles ‘Silurians’ are awakened by an experimental nuclear reactor."
notingOne of my commonly made arguments against the likelihood of finding extraterrestrial intelligence is that it seems to be remarkably rare on our planet ...
But what if I’m wrong? What if intelligent life had arisen on Earth multiple times? Would we be able to recognize it in the geological record?
...
I think I just gave myself nightmares. What if we launched a SATI (Search for Ancient Terrestrial Intelligence) program, found multiple instances, and learned that our peculiar niche is more common than we thought, and always leads to our decline and disappearance? Would that knowledge allow us to change, do better, and escape our doom, or would it tell us that any attempt would be futile?
The Silurian hypothesis: would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record?
Authors Gavin Schmidt and Adam Frank note a curious paradox. The longer that our industrialism lasts, the more that it will end up using sustainable practices, like renewable energy and recycling. These will reduce a civilization's garbage and emissions footprint.If an industrial civilization had existed on Earth many millions of years prior to our own era, what traces would it have left and would they be detectable today? We summarize the likely geological fingerprint of the Anthropocene, and demonstrate that while clear, it will not differ greatly in many respects from other known events in the geological record. We then propose tests that could plausibly distinguish an industrial cause from an otherwise naturally occurring climate event.
They then get into what would be a good geological marker, and they decide on variations in isotope fractions. For instance, biological carbon is depleted in C-13 relative to C-12, and a big injection of biological carbon into the atmosphere makes its C-13 fraction go down.
Humanity's domestic animal and plant species would become well-represented, and also commensal and nuisance species like pigeons and rats.
We have produced a lot of synthetic organic compounds, including halogenated ones. Carbon-chlorine ones are stronger than carbon-carbon ones, meaning that halogenated organics could survive in sediments.
The discussion neglected what macroscopic artifacts could survive. On land, they would be vulnerable to erosion, but those on continental shelves and other sediment-receiving areas could preserve a variety of objects, especially ones that do not rot or corrode. Rock-like ones like bricks and cinderblocks and glass objects and ceramic objects could survive very well. Concrete may also survive fairly well, as may the less reactive metals like copper and silver and gold. The more reactive metals will likely corrode, though aluminum may be protected by what happens now: becoming covered by a thin layer of aluminum oxide. Iron, however, will produce big rust spots. Wood could get fossilized if its gets mineralized, in the fashion of petrified logs.
The authors then discussed events like the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) oceanic anoxic events, and similar events. The PETM and similar events were big warming events, with lots of biological carbon released into the atmosphere as CO2 and CH4 and the like.
The authors are rightly concerned that a previous-civilization hypothesis may be poorly defined.At least since the Carboniferous (300–350 Ma), there has been sufficient fossil carbon to fuel an industrial civilization comparable with our own and any of these sources could provide the light carbon input. However, in many cases this input is contemporaneous to significant episodes of tectonic and/or volcanic activity, for instance, the coincidence of crustal formation events with the climate changes suggest that the intrusion of basaltic magmas into organic-rich shales and/or petroleum-bearing evaporites (Storey et al., 2007; Svensen et al., 2009; Kravchinsky, 2012) may have released large quantities of CO2 or CH4 to the atmosphere. Impacts to warming and/or carbon influx (such as increased runoff, erosion, etc.) appear to be qualitatively similar whenever in the geological period they occur. These changes are thus not sufficient evidence for prior industrial civilizations.
We are aware that raising the possibility of a prior industrial civilization as a driver for events in the geological record might lead to rather unconstrained speculation. One would be able to fit any observations to an imagined civilization in ways that would be basically unfalsifiable. Thus, care must be taken not to postulate such a cause until actually positive evidence is available. The Silurian hypothesis cannot be regarded as likely merely because no other valid idea presents itself.
Finally, "We name the hypothesis after a 1970 episode of the British science fiction TV series Doctor Who where a long-buried race of intelligent reptiles ‘Silurians’ are awakened by an experimental nuclear reactor."