Splitting the US? Many Americans say yes

[lpetrich]

• STUDY: Americans Want To Split Country By Party Lines - YouTube
• SHOCK POLL: Majority of Trump Voters Now in Favor of Seceding from the Union
• Majority of Trump Voters in Favor of Seceding from the Union
• New Initiative Explores Deep, Persistent Divides Between Biden and Trump Voters – Sabato's Crystal Ball

From SCB,

— On one hand, roughly 80% of Trump and Biden voters view democracy as preferable to any non-democratic kind of government.

— On the other hand, more than 6 in 10 Trump and Biden voters see America as less a representative democracy and more a system that is run by and rigged for the benefit of the wealthy.

— Overall, more than two-thirds support — and one-third strongly — emboldening and empowering strong leaders and taking the law into their own hands when it comes to dealing with people or groups they view as dangerous.

— And their willingness to consider violating democratic tendencies and norms extends beyond the hypothetical and to a dangerous and alarming finding: Roughly 2 in 10 Trump and Biden voters — or more than 31 million Americans — strongly agree it would be better if a “President could take needed actions without being constrained by Congress or courts” (as extrapolated from the results of this survey). Roughly 4 in 10 (41%) of Biden and half (52%) of Trump voters at least somewhat agree that it’s time to split the country, favoring blue/red states seceding from the union.

But doing the split would be difficult, since the populations are closely intertwined -- Democratic cities and Republican countrysides, with plenty of Republicans in cities and Democrats in countrysides.

 

[Trausti]

The national government is now a Leviathan, trying to regulate every aspect of people's lives. Shrink government, return sovereignty to the states, and we'll be alright.

 

[lpetrich]

Here are the tables of poll results. After each poll item are the pcts of Biden voters that support that item, then the pcts of Trump voters. The two pcts for each kind of voter are (at least somewhat agree) / (strongly agree)

Table 1: Center for Politics/Project Home Fire poll findings on Biden/Trump voter support for various issues being debated as part of bipartisan infra- structure and reconciliation bill negotiations

• Improvement to the electric grid and other parts of the power sector - 93%/65% - 85%/41%
• Modernizing drinking water, wastewater, and storm water systems - 94%/69% - 85%/43%
• Investing in the construction of roads, bridges, rail lines, ports and other types of "hard infrastructure" - 92%/64% - 86%/45%
• Raising income taxes on American households with incomes above $400,000 - 92%/68% - 55%/26%
• Investing in universal pre-Kindergarten For all American children - 90%/63% - 59%/29%
• Increasing funding for rural broadband internet access - 89%/60% - 74%/31%
• Creating a national paid family leave program - 87%/59% - 52%/23%
• Making community college free for all Americans - 84%/60% - 43%/23%
• Legislation supporting unions through banning "right-to-work" laws and safeguarding union elections - 78%/43% - 42%/17%

D's supported all these items more than R's, but only for hard-infrastructure items that they were close to agreeing: electricity, water, transport, and Internet. D's had nearly twice the support than R's for the others.

Table 2: Poll findings on fear and distrust among Biden and Trump voters

• I have come to view elected officials from the [OPP_PARTY] party as presenting a clear and present danger to American democracy - 80%/51% - 84%/57%
• Concerned that you or someone close to you might experience personal loss or suffering due to the effects of [OPP_PARTY] party policies in the future - 80%/46% - 82%/54%
• Despite the US Constitution's First Amendment protection of free speech, some media sources on the extreme [left/right] have become so untruthful that they should be censored to stop the spreading of dangerous lies - 78%/46% - 73%/47%
• [Republicans/Democrats] want to eliminate the influence of [progressive/traditional] values in American life and culture - 78%/46% - 87%/62%
• The [conservative/mainstream] media might as well be a part of the [Republican/Democratic] Party - 77%/50% - 88%/71%
• I believe that Americans who strongly support the [OPP_PARTY] party have become a clear and present danger to the American way of life - 75%/43% - 78%/47%
• Most [Republicans/Democrats] no longer believe in the ideas that make America great - 72%/40% - 87%/63%
• There's no real difference between [Republicans and Fascists/Democrats and Socialists] - 56%/29% - 76%/54%
• Would consider voting for any [OPP_PARTY] candidate as being disloyal to the people I care about - 52%/30% - 54%/31%

In all these items, R's were ahead of D's, except for the censorship one, where D's were slightly ahead of R's. In most of these items, R's were only slightly ahead, with the main exception being that R's believing that D's and Socialists are alike is somewhat more than D's believing R's and fascists are alike.

Table 3: Center for Politics/Project Home Fire poll findings on commitment to democracy among Biden and Trump voters

• There are many radical, immoral people trying to ruin things; our society ought to stop them - 65%/29% - 83%/44%
• If our society so wants, it is the duty of every true citizen to help eliminate the evil that poisons our country from within - 63%/29% - 78%/35%
• Our country needs a powerful leader in order to destroy the radical and immoral currents prevailing in society today - 62%/26% - 82%/43%
• It would be better for America if whoever is President could take needed actions without being constrained by Congress or the courts - 46%/22% - 44%/19%
• The situation in America is such that would favor [Blue/Red] states seceding from the union to form their own separate country - 41%/18% - 52%/25%

More R's than D's think that there are a lot of wreckers who need to be suppressed, though both seem to agree in wanting Presidential Caesarism.

 

[lpetrich]

The national government is now a Leviathan, trying to regulate every aspect of people's lives. Shrink government, return sovereignty to the states, and we'll be alright.

Evidence: {}

 

[Trausti]

The national government is now a Leviathan, trying to regulate every aspect of people's lives. Shrink government, return sovereignty to the states, and we'll be alright.

Evidence: {}

That parties freak out that the opposing party may get to tilt the Supreme Court this way or that. The Supreme Court was never meant to be as powerful as it is. If we returned to a national government focused on interstate trade and mutual defense, leaving states to decide the rest, we'd be much happier.

 

[lpetrich]

66% of Southern Republicans Are For Secession Says New Poll

• Pacific: California, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, and Alaska
• Mountain: Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico
• South: Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee
• Heartland: Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and Nebraska
• Northeast: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia

Inhabitants who want to secede, by party (Democratic, Independent, Republican)

• Pacific: D 47%, I 33%, R 27%
• Mountain: D 17%, I 35%, R 43%
• South: D 20%, I 50%, R 66%
• Heartland: D 19%, I 43%, R 34%
• Northeast: D 39%, I 35%, R 26%

So Democrats want to secede in the Pacific and Northeast regions, and Republicans want to secede in the South and Mountain regions, and Independents want to secede in the Heartland region.

The strongest secessionists were Southern Republicans, something that shows how much the Republican Party has become the party of Jefferson Davis. The next strongest were Pacific Democrats.


There are complications in that states are not culturally homogeneous. The inland parts of Washington, Oregon, and California have much more in common with the Mountain region than they do with the coastal parts of those three states. That's evident from their voting records.

 

[lpetrich]

That was from
Still miles apart: Americans and the state of U.S. democracy half a year into the Biden presidency | Bright Line Watch

For much of what that page discussed, Democrats, Republicans, and political-science experts were polled on a variety of issues.

The section "Constitutional hardball" had polls on 12 issues, and in only one issue did all three groups agree: rejection of gerrymandering. They only weakly differed, in order R < D < E (experts a bit more than Democrats, in turn a bit more than Republicans).

There were some policies where the E's were between the D's and the R's:

R < E < D: impeach president because unfit
D < E < R: refuse to increase borrowing limit, routine minority filibusters
R < E ~ D (E a bit less than D): increase court size (presumably the Supreme Court)

In all of them, the E's were closer to the D's than to the R's.

There were several policies where the E's were on the same side as the D's but significantly farther:

R < D < E: DC and Puerto Rico statehood, Senate majority abolishes filibuster
E < D < R: not consider Supreme Court nominee, policies that limit voting, local officials refuse to certify, Congress refuses to certify, state legislature picks electors against popular vote

There were none where the E's were on the same side as the R's but significantly farther.

I think that this shows that the Republican Party has become more extreme than the Democratic Party.

 

[lpetrich]

I'll turn to "Overall performance of democracy". using assessments by experts, Democrats, Independents, Republicans, and the general public, from mid-2017 to mid-2021.

For the most part, they tracked each other fairly closely over the time, especially before the November-2020 elections. Over that time, they had order E's > R's > I's > D's > P.

But after Nov 2020, there was a big change. The D's rose to nearly the level of the E's, and the R's fell to nearly the level of P.

That was likely due to the loss of Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the Presidential election that year.

 

[Bomb#20]

The national government is now a Leviathan, trying to regulate every aspect of people's lives. Shrink government, return sovereignty to the states, and we'll be alright.

Not if you just turn state governments into shrunken Leviathans. "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people." is a marvelous theory; but if we ever start to take it seriously again, we'll need to have a discussion about which powers are going to be reserved to the States respectively, and which powers are going to be reserved to the people. Historically, moving government further away from the people and centralizing it has usually been associated with an upturn in liberty and prosperity. Divine Right of Kings has a deservedly bad reputation now; but people dumping on royal absolutism tend to forget how much worse for the people feudalism was, back before the local lord of the manor was brought under the iron fist of the king's officers.

 

[Shadowy Man]

The national government is now a Leviathan, trying to regulate every aspect of people's lives. Shrink government, return sovereignty to the states, and we'll be alright.

Too bad that Republicans only believe in the sovereignty of the States when it is to their advantage to do so. If they weren’t so hypocritical about this I might be able to respect the idea.

 

[Elixir]

Of the ten States with budgets most dependent upon federal funds, nine of them are dead red.
If red States seceded, they would quickly descent into third world squalor without the financial support of the blue States.

 

[RVonse]

The national government is now a Leviathan, trying to regulate every aspect of people's lives. Shrink government, return sovereignty to the states, and we'll be alright.

I would like to agree with you on this. Yet history proves that we still had a civil war and succession even at a time when our federal government was still small.

I think billionaire Elon Musk has it much more correct. All government (state or federal) must be exactly like business and be responsive to the needs of its citizens. A direct feedback loop from the average citizen to the government official and all the more important for government that can not go out of business. At present, our federal government fails miserably and is at best only responsive to the top percent. If our federal government was actually responsive to middle class citizens, there would be less political turmoil in the first place. And far less reasons for any group to want to succeed. Many of the tea party and Bernie Sanders crowd share exactly the same populous views. It is only our elite class controlling monopoly media channels who desire a confusion and clash between left and right so that real important issues are not responded to. If we do have some kind of future civil war, I would be blaming this elite class of over educated people.

 

[Toni]

The national government is now a Leviathan, trying to regulate every aspect of people's lives. Shrink government, return sovereignty to the states, and we'll be alright.

I would like to agree with you on this. Yet history proves that we still had a civil war and succession even at a time when our federal government was still small.

I think billionaire Elon Musk has it much more correct. All government (state or federal) must be exactly like business and be responsive to the needs of its citizens. A direct feedback loop from the average citizen to the government official and all the more important for government that can not go out of business. At present, our federal government fails miserably and is at best only responsive to the top percent. If our federal government was actually responsive to middle class citizens, there would be less political turmoil in the first place. And far less reasons for any group to want to succeed. Many of the tea party and Bernie Sanders crowd share exactly the same populous views. It is only our elite class controlling monopoly media channels who desire a confusion and clash between left and right so that real important issues are not responded to. If we do have some kind of future civil war, I would be blaming this elite class of over educated people.

Quelle surprise.

I mean all of it. The victim mentality and the vulnerability to troll farms is both predictable and stunning.

 

[RVonse]

The national government is now a Leviathan, trying to regulate every aspect of people's lives. Shrink government, return sovereignty to the states, and we'll be alright.

I would like to agree with you on this. Yet history proves that we still had a civil war and succession even at a time when our federal government was still small.

I think billionaire Elon Musk has it much more correct. All government (state or federal) must be exactly like business and be responsive to the needs of its citizens. A direct feedback loop from the average citizen to the government official and all the more important for government that can not go out of business. At present, our federal government fails miserably and is at best only responsive to the top percent. If our federal government was actually responsive to middle class citizens, there would be less political turmoil in the first place. And far less reasons for any group to want to succeed. Many of the tea party and Bernie Sanders crowd share exactly the same populous views. It is only our elite class controlling monopoly media channels who desire a confusion and clash between left and right so that real important issues are not responded to. If we do have some kind of future civil war, I would be blaming this elite class of over educated people.

Quelle surprise.

I mean all of it. The victim mentality and the vulnerability to troll farms is both predictable and stunning.

You do not agree that government should be responsive to its constituents?

 

[Elixir]

You do not agree that government should be responsive to its constituents?

Ya sure, RV. Da libs don't think their representatives should represent them. /rolleyes

Way to misrepresent, dude. That's why I agree with you that Red States should be converted to independent, freedumb loving fiefdoms.

 

[Toni]

Quelle surprise.

I mean all of it. The victim mentality and the vulnerability to troll farms is both predictable and stunning.

You do not agree that government should be responsive to its constituents?

That's not what I wrote.

It's unsurprising that you would worship Elon Musk or any of his ideas.

Even at very local levels, having every decision decided by the general population on a day to day basis is unworkable. It would result in paralysis of the government. Which I think is the point.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Of the ten States with budgets most dependent upon federal funds, nine of them are dead red.
If red States seceded, they would quickly descent into third world squalor without the financial support of the blue States.

This is absolutely 100% correct. Then to add on: the red states themselves would also fail without the liberal cities within their midst paying the bills. Liberal cities like Atlanta, San Antonio, Nashville, New Orleans, and etc. carry their states.

 

[Trausti]

Of the ten States with budgets most dependent upon federal funds, nine of them are dead red.
If red States seceded, they would quickly descent into third world squalor without the financial support of the blue States.

This is absolutely 100% correct. Then to add on: the red states themselves would also fail without the liberal cities within their midst paying the bills. Liberal cities like Atlanta, San Antonio, Nashville, New Orleans, and etc. carry their states.

Are you pretending like the squalid homeless camps in SF and LA don’t exist?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Of the ten States with budgets most dependent upon federal funds, nine of them are dead red.
If red States seceded, they would quickly descent into third world squalor without the financial support of the blue States.

This is absolutely 100% correct. Then to add on: the red states themselves would also fail without the liberal cities within their midst paying the bills. Liberal cities like Atlanta, San Antonio, Nashville, New Orleans, and etc. carry their states.

Are you pretending like the squalid homeless camps in SF and LA don’t exist?

I don't understand the correlation. It's an undisputed fact that liberal cities generate far more tax revenue and are far more successful than their rural counterparts. Would you like some links to study this?

 

[TomC]

Of the ten States with budgets most dependent upon federal funds, nine of them are dead red.
If red States seceded, they would quickly descent into third world squalor without the financial support of the blue States.

This is absolutely 100% correct. Then to add on: the red states themselves would also fail without the liberal cities within their midst paying the bills. Liberal cities like Atlanta, San Antonio, Nashville, New Orleans, and etc. carry their states.

This is something that conservative secessionists seem unable to grasp. Their culture is unsustainable without subsidies from liberals. A few years back, somebody pointed out that different states get far different shares of federal dollars back from federal tax payments made. Mississippi was getting back about $1.20 per tax dollar paid. Massachusetts was getting back about $.80 per tax dollar.

If Red states want to secede, the first thing to talk about is how they're going to pay their share of the federal debt? Then, how are they going to do without Social Security or highway funds? Perhaps then we'll get to issues like tariffs on imported goods like fossil fuels. Concentrate blue populations and our energy policies will be hugely different from the current norm.

Etc. Etc.

But maybe it will be like Brexit, where politicians lie and lie until they get what they want. Then start backpedaling madly when people realize what they actually got.

Tom