The Fine Art of Bull Detection

[Unknown Soldier]

We've all been suckered at one time or other. Scams, cons, fabrications, distortions, and outright lies are everywhere. There isn't a group, organization, club, church, temple, mosque, synagogue, business, or government agency that's above pulling the wool over your eyes. Many lies if believed are relatively harmless, but other lies if believed can be expensive, disastrous or even deadly. What can you do to defend yourself from being bamboozled?

A point I've made over the years is to learn to think critically. Thinking critically involves using valid logic and supporting evidence to judge the credibility of a claim. If the claim seems unreasonable or is lacking in substance, then it's probably not true. Here's a short and incomplete list of common tactics used by con artists that violate valid reasoning or lack supporting evidence:

1. Emotional Appeals: The scammer will use emotion to try to get you to believe the claim. They'll tell you they love and care about you. They have compassion and want to ease your pain.
2. Abuse: It may seem counterintuitive, but scammers will often abuse those they would scam. If you doubt them, for example, then they'll try to make you feel guilty for doing so. Your doubting them or disagreeing with them in their estimation makes you evil or deranged or stupid. This practice is commonly known as "gaslighting."
3. All Talk and No Substance: Con artists tend to talk up a storm, but, of course, there's never any delivery on the substance of their promise(s). If you ask for evidence for their claims, then they'll typically become defensive and express outrage that you should dare to seek confirmation of what they're saying.
4. Group Think: Scammers tend to surround themselves with other likeminded scammers in tightknit groups to lend an appeal to popularity. The message is that so many people cannot be wrong.
5. Disappearing Acts: Time for con artists is valuable, and if you turn out to be an unlikely prospect for the con, the con artists will likely disappear. There are bigger fish to fry!

I've just scratched the surface, and I'm looking forward to reading about how you "detect bull."

 

[Juvenal]

How would they know that?

If you can't figure out how they learned it, it's probably bullcrap.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

How would they know that?

If you can't figure out how they learned it, it's probably bullcrap.

Good observation! Yes, scammers will often assert that which they could not possibly know. I've seen it on this board often enough.

Another thing con-artists do is offer you the moon--and then ask for your money. If they can offer so much, then why would they need your nickels and dimes? Religious groups are especially effective in perpetrating this scam.

 

[James Brown]

Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit

In addition to teaching us what to do when evaluating a claim to knowledge, any good baloney detection kit must also teach us what not to do. It helps us recognize the most common and perilous fallacies of logic and rhetoric. Many good examples can be found in religion and politics, because their practitioners are so often obliged to justify two contradictory propositions.

 

[Jarhyn]

For me it comes down to a few things: are they offering a clear scam?

It's their organization, so they should be able to point to their nonprofit status if they are a nonprofit group, and I have a cellphone, so I can validate that with the Secstate website.

If they are an upstanding organization, they will have a public facing website.

If they are purporting money for them now, money for you later, this is UNIVERSALLY a scam or grift.

If it is money for tradable value, it is also universally a scam or grift.

If it is paying a bill for someone you do not know, and the relationship is based on a hope for a future payout, it is a scam or grift.

If the scam is money for a product via a shady website, there is something to be said about confirming reputability of the seller: if it's an easily found site, it will be easily found whether people complain about not getting their products.

There are channels which all these things happen in non-scam ways, but because of the commonness of such scams these channels are specifically hardened against scam behaviors, and are well known. Avoidance of them, especially provision of excuses, means it is a scam.

I would gladly hand a person 20 cash dollars (assuming I had cash), or a spare gift card I have kicking around from Christmas, to someone who said "I need money to live and I have none", but have nothing for those who lie to me and sell me stories.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit

In addition to teaching us what to do when evaluating a claim to knowledge, any good baloney detection kit must also teach us what not to do. It helps us recognize the most common and perilous fallacies of logic and rhetoric. Many good examples can be found in religion and politics, because their practitioners are so often obliged to justify two contradictory propositions.

I was partly inspired by Sagan's brand of skepticism to start this thread. I should emphasize that baloney can be found coming from anybody and not just the religious and the political. For example, I've found that the disability system is a bigtime source of baloney, and I tend to be slow to believe what they tell me.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

For me it comes down to a few things: are they offering a clear scam?

Unfortunately, most scams are not obvious. That's how people get fooled by them. Many scammers are skilled at what they do.

It's their organization, so they should be able to point to their nonprofit status if they are a nonprofit group, and I have a cellphone, so I can validate that with the Secstate website.

That's a good idea. It's always prudent to do fact checking when in doubt.

If they are purporting money for them now, money for you later, this is UNIVERSALLY a scam or grift.

That's definitely a red flag. When they ask for money, then take care that you know where the money's going.

If it is money for tradable value, it is also universally a scam or grift.

What is "tradable value"?

If the scam is money for a product via a shady website, there is something to be said about confirming reputability of the seller: if it's an easily found site, it will be easily found whether people complain about not getting their products.

I've read that the scammers are getting better at posting websites that look legitimate.

I would gladly hand a person 20 cash dollars (assuming I had cash), or a spare gift card I have kicking around from Christmas, to someone who said "I need money to live and I have none", but have nothing for those who lie to me and sell me stories.

I agree that yes, it's the right thing to do to give to those who really need it and can't get it elsewhere if you reasonably can. But many will lie pretending they need money for legitimate purposes when they want the money for booze, drugs, or broads. I've been scammed by such shysters.

 

[James Brown]

I know a man who claims to know how con artists work. He's too clever for them. If a A/C repair man fixes your unit, and suggests that you might do well getting a new unit (better performance, more efficient, etc.) the man dismisses them angrily. "That's how they get you! That unit has got years of life left, I promise you."

He's also a devout Mormon, so ...

 

[Unknown Soldier]

I know a man who claims to know how con artists work.

From his own experience?

He's too clever for them.

I'm not. I get conned all the time.

If a A/C repair man fixes your unit, and suggests that you might do well getting a new unit (better performance, more efficient, etc.) the man dismisses them angrily. "That's how they get you! That unit has got years of life left, I promise you."

That can be a hard one to call: Is the product you have really in need of replacement, or is the salesman just being pushy?

He's also a devout Mormon, so ...

Then he knows a genuine offer when he sees one!

I think one of the reasons scams are so prevalent is because we live in a culture in which it can be frowned upon to call a con for what it is while the con artist goes on with impunity. Isn't that strange?

 

[Jarhyn]

Unfortunately, most scams are not obvious. That's how people get fooled by them. Many scammers are skilled at what they do.

Most scams are painfully obvious.

Skilled scammers keep their scams obvious because people clever enough to see through cheap scams are generally also clever enough to make consequences happen for the scammer, and to get a hook into whoever it is so they can be reeled in if they don't deliver.

As a result, scams tend towards emails from Nigerian princes full of typos and a clear request for money up front, so that reasonable people laugh it off or hang up, and let the dumbest 1% get caught on their own time.

What is "tradable value"?

Oftentimes, an expensive looking piece of costume jewelry or booze, or some other prop which they purport has value in trade in exchange for your immediate payment of money.

"Tradable value" is the beating heart of the street grift.

they want the money for booze, drugs, or broads. I've been scammed by such shysters.

I would gladly toss someone my pocket change or even all my hard cash, and laugh as I did it, to someone asking me directly for money to acquire such services.

My bar, low as it is, is that whoever it is tells me the truth. That's it.

Many days I will have a 20 in my pocket waiting for the first truth to be spoken.

Someone comes to me with a story? I keep walking. Someone comes to me with the truth? They get whatever I have. It could be food, or cash, or occasionally I'll treat someone directly to a good meal of I have nothing and I have the time.

Pretty much the biggest telltale is "talking too much and saying too little."

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Unfortunately, most scams are not obvious. That's how people get fooled by them. Many scammers are skilled at what they do.

Most scams are painfully obvious.

In the case of religion, I think you're right. The scam is as you say painfully obvious, but the religious heap a big dose of authoritarian intimidation to pressure people into belief.

Skilled scammers keep their scams obvious because people clever enough to see through cheap scams are generally also clever enough to make consequences happen for the scammer...

What consequences are they?

...and to get a hook into whoever it is so they can be reeled in if they don't deliver.

You lost me here. Are you saying that the wiser among us are ready to bust the scammers once the scam is completed?

As a result, scams tend towards emails from Nigerian princes full of typos ...

I tend to be wary of anybody who communicates in a sloppy fashion.

...and a clear request for money up front, so that reasonable people laugh it off or hang up, and let the dumbest 1% get caught on their own time.

I used to be in that 1 percent. I graduated to the 99 percent since then.

What is "tradable value"?

Oftentimes, an expensive looking piece of costume jewelry or booze, or some other prop which they purport has value in trade in exchange for your immediate payment of money.

Those kind of merchants might claim to offer an expensive product at an amazing low price. Is that what you're saying?

they want the money for booze, drugs, or broads. I've been scammed by such shysters.

I would gladly toss someone my pocket change or even all my hard cash, and laugh as I did it, to someone asking me directly for money to acquire such services.

I've often thought that those who ask to "borrow" money from me with no intention of paying it back should just ask for it. At least that way they're being honest. They'd be more likely to get the money that way.

Someone comes to me with a story? I keep walking. Someone comes to me with the truth? They get whatever I have. It could be food, or cash, or occasionally I'll treat someone directly to a good meal of I have nothing and I have the time.

I will need to see you about that!

Pretty much the biggest telltale is "talking too much and saying too little."

Yes, talk is darned cheap, and being lied to can get very expensive. We as a society need to get tougher on shysters and quit harming their victims punishing those victims when they point out that they were lied to.

 

[Juvenal]

My bar, low as it is, is that whoever it is tells me the truth. That's it.

I don't pretend to be able to tell truth from lies, so I treat beggars like street performers. If it's a good act, they get paid.

 

[lostone]

My bar, low as it is, is that whoever it is tells me the truth. That's it.

I don't pretend to be able to tell truth from lies, so I treat beggars like street performers. If it's a good act, they get paid.

In my case, it depends on my mood. Now and then I hand out a 20, and if they use it to buy booze, that's Ok, let them have a little joy in their lives.

 

[Jarhyn]

You lost me here. Are you saying that the wiser among us are ready to bust the scammers once the scam is completed?

I'm saying the wiser among us are able to get them to reveal pertinent data about themselves and the structure of their scam.

If you get someone too clever, the scam itself can be broken, or police might take real interest.

Police don't close down scammers often enough because the scams are generally too small for them to care. If too many intelligent people with money get got, the legal system takes a much sharper interest and the nature of money in the tech age is that it can generally be followed.

Spear phishing is a good example. Spear phishing emails get sent to fraud investigations, whereas shitty Nigerian princes go to the spam bucket.

Those kind of merchants might claim to offer an expensive product at an amazing low price. Is that what you're saying?

No, I'm referencing gas station grifters and the like. The sort of person who lives on the take. Of the sort like "oh shit look at this thing I just found" and then manages to get you to split the take on the piece of fake jewelry.

More grifts of the kind Better Call Saul highlighted.

My husband got taken that way once with scratch lotto tickets that had been redeemed and thrown out but not shredded.

The trade of deferred value: they will trade you something of seeming value for immediate cash for them, which you can in theory recoup for much more, but in practice, the thing is ALWAYS worthless.

I will need to see you about that!

On my daily commute I walked through a downtown area which contains any number of beggars. Sometimes I put cash in my pockets just to have it so I could give it. Like, I hit an ATM and bought something cheap to have smaller bills to spread around.