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The mortgage mess--Washington is still trying to fan the fires

Of course :rolleyes:

So, just to clarify, you know that 'X' is happening; there is no evidence for 'X', therefore there is a conspiracy to conceal any evidence for 'X'.

The problem with this popular form of argument is that the first clause is unsupported.

If the evidence is being concealed, then you cannot know it is happening; if you can know that it is happening, then you have no basis for you claim "The regulators aren't going to publish the data that would let us see this".

You have presented a self-refuting argument, that can be dismissed without consideration of the subject matter. The logic is broken, and the argument would be just as stupid if it were to be about aliens at Roswell, New Mexico.

Epic fail.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/24/rea...dex.html?sr=fbmoney092415banklending1000story


Sorry, but "redlining" is really just not willing to write mortgages for unqualified borrowers. Of course the regulators aren't going to publish the data that would let us see this.

No, redlining is not "really just not willing to write mortgages for unqualified borrowers." Redlining is marking off an area that you won't provide services in because of the area's racial or ethnic make up.

I would respectfully suggest that you consider subjecting your beliefs at the very least to the reality of a dictionary before you air them in public.

The law doesn't even rely on establishing a racial or ethnic prejudice. It simply states that a bank that takes deposits from a community should write loans in the community equal to at least one half of the value of those deposits.

Note that this isn't anywhere close to one half of the loans that the bank writes because of the multiplying effect of fractional reserve banking. A 5% reserve requirement means that the bank can write twenty times the amount of loans as it has deposits. In this case the bank would have to write 2.5% of its loans in the community that provided the deposits.

The law prohibits the bank making loans to unqualified borrowers.
 
Of course :rolleyes:

So, just to clarify, you know that 'X' is happening; there is no evidence for 'X', therefore there is a conspiracy to conceal any evidence for 'X'.

The problem with this popular form of argument is that the first clause is unsupported.

If the evidence is being concealed, then you cannot know it is happening; if you can know that it is happening, then you have no basis for you claim "The regulators aren't going to publish the data that would let us see this".

You have presented a self-refuting argument, that can be dismissed without consideration of the subject matter. The logic is broken, and the argument would be just as stupid if it were to be about aliens at Roswell, New Mexico.

Epic fail.

This is the same thing that caused the original meltdown.

I'm saying the absence of any evidence as to exactly what was going on is itself meaningful--by not showing that it's legitimate it strongly suggests it's more of the same crap that started this mess.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/24/rea...dex.html?sr=fbmoney092415banklending1000story


Sorry, but "redlining" is really just not willing to write mortgages for unqualified borrowers. Of course the regulators aren't going to publish the data that would let us see this.

No, redlining is not "really just not willing to write mortgages for unqualified borrowers." Redlining is marking off an area that you won't provide services in because of the area's racial or ethnic make up.

That's what they pretend.

Locally "redlining" was not writing low-down loans for houses that weren't expected to appreciate. They were perfectly willing to write 80/20s, though.

The law doesn't even rely on establishing a racial or ethnic prejudice. It simply states that a bank that takes deposits from a community should write loans in the community equal to at least one half of the value of those deposits.

Yeah--write enough loans no matter how bad. That's what caused the problem.

Note that this isn't anywhere close to one half of the loans that the bank writes because of the multiplying effect of fractional reserve banking. A 5% reserve requirement means that the bank can write twenty times the amount of loans as it has deposits. In this case the bank would have to write 2.5% of its loans in the community that provided the deposits.

The law prohibits the bank making loans to unqualified borrowers.

No matter how many times people pretend that fractional reserve banking allows a bank to write more loans than they have in deposits doesn't make it so.

What a 5% fractional reserve actually means is that if they get $100 in deposits they can loan out $95. The recipients of those loans will normally spend it on something and the recipient of that money deposits that $95 in the bank--which means another $90.25 in loans. By the time the cycle runs to completion you have $2000 in deposits and $1900 in loans.
 
Of course :rolleyes:

So, just to clarify, you know that 'X' is happening; there is no evidence for 'X', therefore there is a conspiracy to conceal any evidence for 'X'.

The problem with this popular form of argument is that the first clause is unsupported.

If the evidence is being concealed, then you cannot know it is happening; if you can know that it is happening, then you have no basis for you claim "The regulators aren't going to publish the data that would let us see this".

You have presented a self-refuting argument, that can be dismissed without consideration of the subject matter. The logic is broken, and the argument would be just as stupid if it were to be about aliens at Roswell, New Mexico.

Epic fail.

This is the same thing that caused the original meltdown.

I'm saying the absence of any evidence as to exactly what was going on is itself meaningful--by not showing that it's legitimate it strongly suggests it's more of the same crap that started this mess.
That's a good point.
 
No, redlining is not "really just not willing to write mortgages for unqualified borrowers." Redlining is marking off an area that you won't provide services in because of the area's racial or ethnic make up.

That's what they pretend.

No one is pretending anything. You were confused about the meaning of the word "redlining" and I explained what it is. I suggested that you look it up in a dictionary if you didn't believe me. Obviously you didn't.

Locally "redlining" was not writing low-down loans for houses that weren't expected to appreciate. They were perfectly willing to write 80/20s, though.

This is approaching incoherent babble. Redlining is refusing to write loans in a particular area because of the area's racial or ethnic make up. I don't know if you meant to say that "redlining" is not writing down a loan on a house that isn't expected to appreciate, that is the word "low” is misplaced, but if this is the case the thought is incoherent or if you meant to say that "redlining" is not writing low down payment loans for houses that aren't expected to appreciate, in which case the word "payment" was left out but once again the thought is incoherent. There are a lot of things that redlining isn't. I suggest that you try to concentrate on what it is, not what it isn't. I have told you what it is twice now.

The law doesn't even rely on establishing a racial or ethnic prejudice. It simply states that a bank that takes deposits from a community should write loans in the community equal to at least one half of the value of those deposits.

Yeah--write enough loans no matter how bad. That's what caused the problem.

Once again, the law against redlining prohibited writing bad loans.

If by causing problems you mean the Financial Crisis of 2008, this had nothing to do with the CRA, the anti-redlining law. The reason that so many bad mortgages were written is because the banks and Wall Street created tranced Mortgage Backed Securities of which the most popular slices of the MBS's where those containing the riskiest loans, the non-conforming loans, because these were the trances with the highest returns. This meant that the agents who originated the loans, who wrote the loans, were provided with financial incentives basically to write bad loans. These agents, many of whom came from Ameriquest and other predatory lenders, didn't suffer any financial loss if the borrower defaulted. This is what economists call a "moral hazard."

Note that this isn't anywhere close to one half of the loans that the bank writes because of the multiplying effect of fractional reserve banking. A 5% reserve requirement means that the bank can write twenty times the amount of loans as it has deposits. In this case the bank would have to write 2.5% of its loans in the community that provided the deposits.

The law prohibits the bank making loans to unqualified borrowers.

No matter how many times people pretend that fractional reserve banking allows a bank to write more loans than they have in deposits doesn't make it so.

What a 5% fractional reserve actually means is that if they get $100 in deposits they can loan out $95. The recipients of those loans will normally spend it on something and the recipient of that money deposits that $95 in the bank--which means another $90.25 in loans. By the time the cycle runs to completion you have $2000 in deposits and $1900 in loans.

Yes, you are absolutely right, the original 100 dollars deposit has turned into a total of 2000 dollars. 2000 divided by 100 equals 20 times the amount of money that we started out with. The banks have created 1900 dollars out of thin air from the original 100 dollars by repeatedly loaning it out, diminished by the reserve amount for each loan. You have it actually right, you can pretend to be one of those people who believe this.

In each iteration the amount of money that goes into the banks’ reserves is five percent of the loan amount. When the entire 1900 dollars of loans have been made the total amount of reserves that are being held will equal exactly 100 dollars. The fraction is 100 ÷ 2000 or 5%.

Yes, I see. It was imprecise of me to conflate deposits and reserves. Yes, you are correct, the loan amount in each step has to be deposited in a bank and loaned out again for the entire amount of bank money to be created. If you add up all of the loan amounts deposited in the banks it will be 1900 dollars. The banks have created 1900 dollars in bank money from only 100 dollars in base money but because the loan amounts have to be deposited in the banks the banks haven't created more money they have in deposits.

So my point isn't valid. I should be more careful in the future.
 

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So these evil money loving greedy bankers don't want to make money because the money comes from a black person?
 
Locally "redlining" was not writing low-down loans for houses that weren't expected to appreciate. They were perfectly willing to write 80/20s, though.

This is approaching incoherent babble. Redlining is refusing to write loans in a particular area because of the area's racial or ethnic make up. I don't know if you meant to say that "redlining" is not writing down a loan on a house that isn't expected to appreciate, that is the word "low” is misplaced, but if this is the case the thought is incoherent or if you meant to say that "redlining" is not writing low down payment loans for houses that aren't expected to appreciate, in which case the word "payment" was left out but once again the thought is incoherent. There are a lot of things that redlining isn't. I suggest that you try to concentrate on what it is, not what it isn't. I have told you what it is twice now.

Calling it babble doesn't change reality. They called it "redlining" and punished the banks. The reality is that almost all "discrimination" cases involve things like this--not considering all the factors that went into the decision.

The law doesn't even rely on establishing a racial or ethnic prejudice. It simply states that a bank that takes deposits from a community should write loans in the community equal to at least one half of the value of those deposits.

Yeah--write enough loans no matter how bad. That's what caused the problem.

Once again, the law against redlining prohibited writing bad loans.

And so what if it did?

The banks were told to write loans and they were told not to write bad loans. The former is easier to measure than the latter. Given an impossible situation they chose to comply with the more clear-cut law. Note that even avoiding the whole situation by not going into poor neighborhoods at all got this bank in trouble.

If by causing problems you mean the Financial Crisis of 2008, this had nothing to do with the CRA, the anti-redlining law. The reason that so many bad mortgages were written is because the banks and Wall Street created tranced Mortgage Backed Securities of which the most popular slices of the MBS's where those containing the riskiest loans, the non-conforming loans, because these were the trances with the highest returns. This meant that the agents who originated the loans, who wrote the loans, were provided with financial incentives basically to write bad loans. These agents, many of whom came from Ameriquest and other predatory lenders, didn't suffer any financial loss if the borrower defaulted. This is what economists call a "moral hazard."

The fact that such trash was acceptable was Washington trying to resolve the impossible situation caused by the CRA. Thus the CRA is responsible. (Although I put more blame on the Republicans--they ignored the obvious trouble developing.)

Yes, I see. It was imprecise of me to conflate deposits and reserves. Yes, you are correct, the loan amount in each step has to be deposited in a bank and loaned out again for the entire amount of bank money to be created. If you add up all of the loan amounts deposited in the banks it will be 1900 dollars. The banks have created 1900 dollars in bank money from only 100 dollars in base money but because the loan amounts have to be deposited in the banks the banks haven't created more money they have in deposits.

So my point isn't valid. I should be more careful in the future.

The point being the 50% is of the $2000, not of the $100.
 
No, redlining is not "really just not willing to write mortgages for unqualified borrowers." Redlining is marking off an area that you won't provide services in because of the area's racial or ethnic make up.

That's what they pretend.

Locally "redlining" was not writing low-down loans for houses that weren't expected to appreciate. They were perfectly willing to write 80/20s, though.

The law doesn't even rely on establishing a racial or ethnic prejudice. It simply states that a bank that takes deposits from a community should write loans in the community equal to at least one half of the value of those deposits.

Yeah--write enough loans no matter how bad. That's what caused the problem.

Note that this isn't anywhere close to one half of the loans that the bank writes because of the multiplying effect of fractional reserve banking. A 5% reserve requirement means that the bank can write twenty times the amount of loans as it has deposits. In this case the bank would have to write 2.5% of its loans in the community that provided the deposits.

The law prohibits the bank making loans to unqualified borrowers.

No matter how many times people pretend that fractional reserve banking allows a bank to write more loans than they have in deposits doesn't make it so.

What a 5% fractional reserve actually means is that if they get $100 in deposits they can loan out $95. The recipients of those loans will normally spend it on something and the recipient of that money deposits that $95 in the bank--which means another $90.25 in loans. By the time the cycle runs to completion you have $2000 in deposits and $1900 in loans.

And thus do we have the money supply.

The reserve requirement was not really the cause of the subprime mortgage meltdown. The creation of mortgage backed securities made it possible for mortgage agents, bankers, and other petty thieves to write a mortgage contract for practically anyone. In ordinary times, a bank held the mortgage and the interest on the loan was the bank's income. This made banker's very cautious. I had to deal with a few back in those days and for anything under a half million dollars, they wanted a large down payment and highest possible interest. If the government was willing to help out, that was fine, too.

Mortgage backed securities lumped thousands of mortgages together and shares in the security were sold to investors. The problem was, there was no way for an investor to look into an individual security and check the mortgages which produced the income.

This wouldn't have been so bad, except mortgage bankers make their money when the mortgage is written, and if the paper is sold before something bad happens, he gets to keep all the money. It's a great temptation to fudge the numbers a little. Property was overvalued, incomes were exaggerated, sometimes numbers were just pulled out of a desk drawer.

The risk of the investment was passed on and the reward was immediate.

Banks that are too big to fail need big investments and a security backed by uncountable home mortgages looks real, until reality sets in.
 
The 'clever' part is that, as ane fule noe, a diversified investment portfolio is safer than the individual investments that make it up. If you hold one mortgage, then there is a risk - say 5% - that the borrower will default, and you lose everything. But if you hold a thousand such loans, then if the risk is 5%, you are sure to get a return from 95% of the investments. If you set the interest rate such that 95% pays more than the losses from the 5%, then you can't lose.

But, of course, this assumes that the effect of a default is confined only to the defaulting loan. If there is any relationship between the default on one loan, and the chances of default on the others, then things are a bit different.

If you hold 1,000 mortgages, and 5% default, then you now hold 950 mortgages. But the value of the securities has fallen, because suddenly there are 50 properties being sold at foreclosure auctions. The value of property plummets, and 950 people say 'why should I pay this huge loan, when I can default, and then buy an identical property for peanuts, with no debt?'. If you owe 50k on a 200k home, defaulting costs you 150k. But if you owe 50k on a 40k home, defaulting makes you 10k better off.

Suddenly that diversified investment turns out not to be diverse at all - it's not 1,000 separate risks, but a single risk 1,000 times as large. You had better hope that someone else is holding that hot potato when the market wakes up to the fact that the risk is MASSIVELY underestimated.
 
The reserve requirement was not really the cause of the subprime mortgage meltdown. The creation of mortgage backed securities made it possible for mortgage agents, bankers, and other petty thieves to write a mortgage contract for practically anyone. In ordinary times, a bank held the mortgage and the interest on the loan was the bank's income. This made banker's very cautious. I had to deal with a few back in those days and for anything under a half million dollars, they wanted a large down payment and highest possible interest. If the government was willing to help out, that was fine, too.

I never said it was. SimpleDon was using it to try to show that the 50% requirement on loans to poor areas was really more like 5%.

Mortgage backed securities lumped thousands of mortgages together and shares in the security were sold to investors. The problem was, there was no way for an investor to look into an individual security and check the mortgages which produced the income.

This wouldn't have been so bad, except mortgage bankers make their money when the mortgage is written, and if the paper is sold before something bad happens, he gets to keep all the money. It's a great temptation to fudge the numbers a little. Property was overvalued, incomes were exaggerated, sometimes numbers were just pulled out of a desk drawer.

The risk of the investment was passed on and the reward was immediate.

Banks that are too big to fail need big investments and a security backed by uncountable home mortgages looks real, until reality sets in.

You're missing the point I was trying to make:

The banks were forced to write the loans--and they're still trying to do it.

Now, the scumbags that jumped on the bandwagon and were the worst part of the problem weren't caused by the regulators, but the relaxing of mortgage standards that allowed them to do it certainly was.
 
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