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The Race For 2024

Mega Poll
“Our MRP model has shown a Trump win throughout the campaign and only in the final update has it nudged Democrat,” said James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer.
Backers of the method say it is likely to be even more effective in the U.S. where there are only 50 states. In Britain, the MRP model needs to produce forecasts for 650 constituencies represented in Westminster’s parliament, a more complicated operation.
This time, according to Focaldata’s research, the pollsters may be “herding” — clustering their results around the idea that the race is 50-50 in order to avoid looking like they’re wrong. Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris.
 
" Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris."

Were I on Harris' election team I would totally be encouraging that.

The Democrats as a group are largely from low turnout demographics. It's easy to get them to stay home. Keep everyone on the edge of their seats.

I honestly believe that Trump's victory in 2016 was a result of Democratic apathy. Polls consistently showed Clinton way out in front. As a result, enough voters in swing states, Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania, stayed home or made some protest vote to result in a Trump presidency. Writing in Bernie Sanders was a vote for Trump.

I'd rather the Democrats didn't make that mistake again.
Tom
 
" Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris."

Were I on Harris' election team I would totally be encouraging that.

The Democrats as a group are largely from low turnout demographics. It's easy to get them to stay home. Keep everyone on the edge of their seats.

I honestly believe that Trump's victory in 2016 was a result of Democratic apathy. Polls consistently showed Clinton way out in front. As a result, enough voters in swing states, Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania, stayed home or made some protest vote to result in a Trump presidency. Writing in Bernie Sanders was a vote for Trump.

I'd rather the Democrats didn't make that mistake again.
Tom
I agree that apathy gave Trumputin the edge they needed. I don't sense any such thing about this cycle though. If Trump wins it will be because he turned out every last trumpsucker in the nation (and probably some foreigners).
 
" Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris."

Were I on Harris' election team I would totally be encouraging that.

The Democrats as a group are largely from low turnout demographics. It's easy to get them to stay home. Keep everyone on the edge of their seats.

I honestly believe that Trump's victory in 2016 was a result of Democratic apathy. Polls consistently showed Clinton way out in front. As a result, enough voters in swing states, Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania, stayed home or made some protest vote to result in a Trump presidency. Writing in Bernie Sanders was a vote for Trump.

I'd rather the Democrats didn't make that mistake again.
Tom
I agree that apathy gave Trumputin the edge they needed. I don't sense any such thing about this cycle though. If Trump wins it will be because he turned out every last trumpsucker in the nation (and probably some foreigners).

I believe that there is still a ton of laziness out there among Trump voters. An unwillingness to actually look into things.

One of my wife's cousins in Maine is going to vote for Trump because Biden cancelled the pipeline from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico so two of his friends who are welders got laid off!!!

We were talking to another cousin, his brother, who is supporting Harris. He tried and tried to educate his brother on how many small businesses Trump has scammed and never paid for work but it just didn't stick.

All other shit aside, how could a small business person vote for someone who had personally scammed and stiffed so many small businesses by never paying them?
 
I believe that there is still a ton of laziness out there among USA voters. An unwillingness to actually look into things.
FTFY

I honestly believe that the NationalPopularVote.com plan would hugely increase electorate engagement and information. Make everybody's vote for president count equally. No need to bother with a constitutional amendment to get it done.

But most voters live in a place like me. The most highly covered political race has already been determined. There's no reason for me to go to the trouble of voting for POTUS, my legislature is definitely going to send all the Indiana delegates to appoint Trump next Wednesday. Since I can't effectively vote for president, why not just take a long lunch on Tuesday?
Tom
 
why not just take a long lunch on Tuesday?
Are all your State and local races sewn up for Trumpsuckers?
Not a viable Dem or Independent running for anything on the whole ballot?
 
why not just take a long lunch on Tuesday?
Are all your State and local races sewn up for Trumpsuckers?
Not a viable Dem or Independent running for anything on the whole ballot?
This is Indiana.
Anything else you need to know?
Tom

ETA ~ We threw the GOP nomination to Trump in 2016. Despite the best efforts of the GOP legislature to stop him, Trump took every single Republican district in the state. Then he picked our governor to be VP.

Yeah, I live in Trumpistan. ~
 
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I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump. He might ban vaccines? He's going to put RFK in "charge of women and their health". What the fuck does that even mean...?
I find the term "Deplorables" quite accurate.

I was rather annoyed when Hillary walked that back. The Trump supporters we're talking about are Deplorables.

Not all Republicans, but the large and growing number of Deplorables that oppose American values and institutions and want to use violence to get rid of that.
Tom
 
I believe that there is still a ton of laziness out there among USA voters. An unwillingness to actually look into things.
FTFY

I honestly believe that the NationalPopularVote.com plan would hugely increase electorate engagement and information. Make everybody's vote for president count equally. No need to bother with a constitutional amendment to get it done.

But most voters live in a place like me. The most highly covered political race has already been determined. There's no reason for me to go to the trouble of voting for POTUS, my legislature is definitely going to send all the Indiana delegates to appoint Trump next Wednesday. Since I can't effectively vote for president, why not just take a long lunch on Tuesday?
Tom
Total vote numbers measure the popularity of a candidate and therefore the popularity of their platform. So even if your vote doesn't make a difference in the election it can make a difference in getting the platform passed.
 
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I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.
Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.
 
I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.
Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.
What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?
 
why not just take a long lunch on Tuesday?
Are all your State and local races sewn up for Trumpsuckers?
Not a viable Dem or Independent running for anything on the whole ballot?
This is Indiana.
Anything else you need to know?
Tom

ETA ~ We threw the GOP nomination to Trump in 2016. Despite the best efforts of the GOP legislature to stop him, Trump took every single Republican district in the state. Then he picked our governor to be VP.

Yeah, I live in Trumpistan. ~
The weird thing about Indiana, where we may end up moving before too long is that in Ind
I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.
Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.
What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?
He doesn't like her laugh and that means she shouldn't be president.
 
I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.
Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.
What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?

She offers nothing but to continue with Brandon’s ruinous policies.
 
I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.
Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.
What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?

She offers nothing but to continue with Brandon’s ruinous policies.
What did Brandon do that was 10% as crazy as Trump wanting to ban vaccines?
 
I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.
Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.
What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?

She offers nothing but to continue with Brandon’s ruinous policies.
What did Brandon do that was 10% as crazy as Trump wanting to ban vaccines?
Already answered. :rolleyes:
 
I'm so embarrassed that our country would even consider voting for Trump.
Trump should not get anywhere near the levers of power. But it is more important that cackling Kamala and the democrats are kept out of the Oval Office. That’s how bad she is.
What is Harris proposing to do that is 10% as crazy as trump wanting to outlaw vaccines?

She offers nothing but to continue with Brandon’s ruinous policies.
What did Brandon do that was 10% as crazy as Trump wanting to ban vaccines?
Already answered. :rolleyes:
You have answered nothing!
What part of 4% unemployment, record stock market, lower crime rate, a lot of new jobs, better foreign relations do you not like?
 
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