Trump and North Korean Self Defense

[Jimmy Higgins]

North Korea says Trump declared war on North Korea. Of course, we don't take too much stock in what they say.

But lets look at the quote.

Just heard Foreign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man, they won't be around much longer!

So umm... not quite black and white, but such a statement starts wavering into dangerous territory. "Echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man". First off, he said heard the guy speak, but then says if he says the same things as Kim Jong Un, *bad stuff*. That is a broken statement. Did he echo or not?

Regardless, echoing thoughts means to say the same thing. Trump just said if North Korea keeps talking big, they'll be removed from power. While Trump clearly lacks the nuance to understand the significant change in direction of the statement, it certainly does exist. Usually Trump threatens that if North Korea does something, it'll be the end. But Trump said that North Korea's words can lead to their end now.

At what point does Trump give North Korea enough ammo for self-defense on some gray area event... ie... shooting a plane close enough to its border that it can claim it was over North Korean territory? A situation where they can go to the UN, and the UN has to shrug its shoulders as Trump has been greatly increasing the threats.

 

[sharon45]

North Korea says Trump declared war on North Korea. Of course, we don't take too much stock in what they say.

But lets look at the quote.

Just heard Foreign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man, they won't be around much longer!

So umm... not quite black and white, but such a statement starts wavering into dangerous territory. "Echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man". First off, he said heard the guy speak, but then says if he says the same things as Kim Jong Un, *bad stuff*. That is a broken statement. Did he echo or not?

This means Trump doesn't know yet if the minister actually speaks for Kim.

 

[whichphilosophy]

North Korea says Trump declared war on North Korea. Of course, we don't take too much stock in what they say.

But lets look at the quote.

So umm... not quite black and white, but such a statement starts wavering into dangerous territory. "Echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man". First off, he said heard the guy speak, but then says if he says the same things as Kim Jong Un, *bad stuff*. That is a broken statement. Did he echo or not?

This means Trump doesn't know yet if the minister actually speaks for Kim.

Maybe it's a bit of Kim's puppetry.

 

[sharon45]

This means Trump doesn't know yet if the minister actually speaks for Kim.

Maybe it's a bit of Kim's puppetry.

Both countries can enjoy playing clandestine word games until it starts not being fun anymore.

 

[Malintent]

Trump is "egging on" NK to "fire first" so that China will stay out of it and we can invade them without Chinese interference.

not saying this is the right move, but it seems to me to be the move that is being made.

This is my prediction....

There will be a massive explosion in NK that one side says was a nuclear facility accident, and the other says was an American terrorist attack. China will "investigate", and meanwhilest, NK will be devastated with damage to SK environmental resources.... and SK will march in to a hobbled NK and topple the regime. The US will back SK and China becomes a new wildcard.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

My prediction? China will do whatever is necessary to keep US troops from occupying the border with China.

 

[jonatha]

My prediction? China will do whatever is necessary to keep US troops from occupying the border with China.

I can't understand why there haven't been backchannel talks to the effect of "China assists the South in unifying the country and the US agrees to withdraw from the peninsula 5 minutes after that's done"

(I also don't understand why we haven't pointed out to the Chinese that if they don't mind a nuclear North Korea all that much, we might don't object too loudly to a nuclear Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan....)

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

My prediction? China will do whatever is necessary to keep US troops from occupying the border with China.

I can't understand why there haven't been backchannel talks to the effect of "China assists the South in unifying the country and the US agrees to withdraw from the peninsula 5 minutes after that's done"

I'm not certain how badly South Korea wants to unify. North Korea is very poor.

(I also don't understand why we haven't pointed out to the Chinese that if they don't mind a nuclear North Korea all that much, we might don't object too loudly to a nuclear Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan....)

Because of non-proliferation.

 

[funinspace]

Another day with stupid

North Korea says Trump declared war on North Korea. Of course, we don't take too much stock in what they say.

Sadly, one has to apply a similar stocking to The Dotard:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/us-iranian-missile-launch-fake/index.html

US intelligence radars and sensors "picked up no indication" of an Iranian ballistic missile launch in the days surrounding a reported test, according to a Trump administration official familiar with the latest US assessment.
<snip>
But the telemetry, or electronic signals, of a ballistic missile launch would have been picked up by a variety of US assets in the region who keep an around the clock eye on Iran's weapons activities, the official said.

President Donald Trump tweeted about the apparent launch on Saturday: "Iran just test fired a ballistic missile capable of reaching Israel. They are also working with North Korea. Not much of an agreement we have!"

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sadly, one has to apply a similar stocking to The Dotard:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/us-iranian-missile-launch-fake/index.html

US intelligence radars and sensors "picked up no indication" of an Iranian ballistic missile launch in the days surrounding a reported test, according to a Trump administration official familiar with the latest US assessment.
<snip>
But the telemetry, or electronic signals, of a ballistic missile launch would have been picked up by a variety of US assets in the region who keep an around the clock eye on Iran's weapons activities, the official said.

President Donald Trump tweeted about the apparent launch on Saturday: "Iran just test fired a ballistic missile capable of reaching Israel. They are also working with North Korea. Not much of an agreement we have!"

Sure, but that is a bit of a derail. I was speaking about how much the words can start to matter in order for North Korea to be able to use a gray-area self-defense excuse for a strike against a US plane that is close enough to North Korea. Trump's language could get someone in the air killed.

 

[funinspace]

My prediction? China will do whatever is necessary to keep US troops from occupying the border with China.

I can't understand why there haven't been backchannel talks to the effect of "China assists the South in unifying the country and the US agrees to withdraw from the peninsula 5 minutes after that's done"

Because the American neocons nuts would fall off with the horror of disengaging our military-complex...

 

[funinspace]

Trump is "egging on" NK to "fire first" so that China will stay out of it and we can invade them without Chinese interference.

not saying this is the right move, but it seems to me to be the move that is being made.

That is certainly possible. El Cheato certainly does like to have lots of hot pokers swinging around.

This is my prediction....

There will be a massive explosion in NK that one side says was a nuclear facility accident, and the other says was an American terrorist attack. China will "investigate", and meanwhilest, NK will be devastated with damage to SK environmental resources.... and SK will march in to a hobbled NK and topple the regime. The US will back SK and China becomes a new wildcard.

I would think this fairly unlikely, as we don't have good access to NK, and I would think China and Russia would be watching things closely. And I at least hope our military-complex isn't as crazed-cooperative as El Cheato sounds...

 

[Elixir]

...SK will march in to a hobbled NK and topple the regime.

Why would they do that? It would be like adopting a violent mentally retarded infant...

 

[sharon45]

...SK will march in to a hobbled NK and topple the regime.

Why would they do that? It would be like adopting a violent mentally retarded infant...

For one thing, many in the south have family members in the north.

 

[bilby]

There's no need to worry about North Korea's missiles until they have one that can reach New York.

If they can make it there, they'll make it anywhere.

 

[ZiprHead]

There's no need to worry about North Korea's missiles until they have on that can reach New York.

If they can make it there, they'll make it anywhere.

I see what you did there.

 

[LordKiran]

If anything Trump should realize that now is the time to REALLY put the screws to China, insist that all NK aggression is proxy-Chinese aggression, and make loud boisterous claims that if China does not pull its proxy-state/puppet regime back in-line then the UN and rest of the world will do what they must to secure their futures. Insist that we must cease cooperation with the country all together if they continue to present a threat to global security and the safety of US allies and UN member-states.

If he's going to try and bluster his way through this, then he might as well put that bluster where it has a chance of working. Rocket man is willing to burn the world over if it means he can stay in power, so idle threats really have no effect here. The Chinese by comparison have too much to lose and this should be made abundantly clear to them in any diplomatic engagement that concerns NK.

 

[bilby]

If anything Trump should realize that now is the time to REALLY put the screws to China, insist that all NK aggression is proxy-Chinese aggression, and make loud boisterous claims that if China does not pull its proxy-state/puppet regime back in-line then the UN and rest of the world will do what they must to secure their futures. Insist that we must cease cooperation with the country all together if they continue to present a threat to global security and the safety of US allies and UN member-states.

If he's going to try and bluster his way through this, then he might as well put that bluster where it has a chance of working. Rocket man is willing to burn the world over if it means he can stay in power, so idle threats really have no effect here. The Chinese by comparison have too much to lose and this should be made abundantly clear to them in any diplomatic engagement that concerns NK.

The UN can't do anything to China; China is a permanent member of the Security Council, and has a veto.

Still, the rest of this is a GREAT idea. Like Germany's guarantee to defend Austria-Hungary against Russian aggression, everyone will see that a US threat to attack China in the event of NK aggression against SK opens up the likelihood of a huge conflict that would massively harm all involved, and so, just as it did in 1914, such a stance will render war unthinkable and impossible - all the more so now that we have terrible weapons the like of which have never previously been used in a large scale war, where such things could be employed by both sides.

What could POSSIBLY go wrong?

 

[LordKiran]

If anything Trump should realize that now is the time to REALLY put the screws to China, insist that all NK aggression is proxy-Chinese aggression, and make loud boisterous claims that if China does not pull its proxy-state/puppet regime back in-line then the UN and rest of the world will do what they must to secure their futures. Insist that we must cease cooperation with the country all together if they continue to present a threat to global security and the safety of US allies and UN member-states.

If he's going to try and bluster his way through this, then he might as well put that bluster where it has a chance of working. Rocket man is willing to burn the world over if it means he can stay in power, so idle threats really have no effect here. The Chinese by comparison have too much to lose and this should be made abundantly clear to them in any diplomatic engagement that concerns NK.

The UN can't do anything to China; China is a permanent member of the Security Council, and has a veto.

Still, the rest of this is a GREAT idea. Like Germany's guarantee to defend Austria-Hungary against Russian aggression, everyone will see that a US threat to attack China in the event of NK aggression against SK opens up the likelihood of a huge conflict that would massively harm all involved, and so, just as it did in 1914, such a stance will render war unthinkable and impossible - all the more so now that we have terrible weapons the like of which have never previously been used in a large scale war, where such things could be employed by both sides.

What could POSSIBLY go wrong?

That was different entirely. We're not talking about writing out a blank check to a foreign power who's actions we have no control over. We're talking about what amounts to a massive global PR campaign to advance the resolution of a specific flashpoint (You know, something that might actually play to what passes for 'strengths' in the D) Its about getting everyone on the same page: China will be held responsible for any acts of aggression by NK. This provides them an additional incentive to make sure the NK question is resolved as peaceably as possible. By comparison, playing a game of nuclear chicken is a losing proposition when your opponent has nothing to lose. China however, has EVERYTHING to lose, and we possess the means to destroy it should it come to that.

I mean come on, its at least a better idea than threatening NK directly. Where's that going to get you?

Also The WW1 arguably didn't become The Great War until Germany invaded Belgium.

 

[DBT]

This situation has the feel of a perfect storm, the worst possible elements appear to be in place, Trump, Kim Jong-un, that'll cause the very thing no sane person wants, war.