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Trump Will Likely Win

SLD

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I hate to be negative, but the polls just aren't showing enough for Harris to pull this out - in the end, I see a few key states breaking Trump's way and he ekes it out. She has to win both Michigan and Pennsylvania and I am very, very skeptical.

I think that Harris just has too many negatives for people to support her. According to some polls, something like 1/4 of African-American males will not vote for her and many will support Trump. There's just a negative that she's a woman.

Second, polls tend to overestimate support for African-Americans and women in races. There is a tendency not to admit that you're not going to vote for an African American or a woman because you fear being labelled. There's just too much residual racism and sexism in the country for her to get elected. In the end, I see a lot of people holding their nose and voting for Trump. Furthermore, Trump has historically underperformed in polls and over performed in the election results. It happened undeniably in 2016, but in 2020 as well - although to a lesser extent.

Third, it's all about the base. While there are a lot of people enthusiastic for her election, I just don't know if it's enough - especially if African-American males don't really support her as strong as they need to. It will be soooo close in places like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Fourth, there's also been a small, but possibly important, shift in the Electoral College towards Republicans. Traditionally strong Republican strongholds have picked up a net of 3 electoral votes, including 2 in Texas and 1 each in Montana, Florida and North Carolina (they lost two elsewhere). Traditionally Democratic states have lost 1. Swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one. This handicaps Harris slightly - and the slightest handicap is all it takes.

Using an interactive map, I figure it all boils down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both of which I remain skeptical Harris can carry. But possibly. Polling right now shows her ahead a bit in Michigan, but Pennsylvania flips around too much to determine. So given that polls are likely under counting Trump again, I don't see her winning both which is required for her to get over 270. Here's my EV prediction (don't pay attention to the shade of the color):

2024EV.jpg
 
I find it extremely unlikely that Trump will win. However, in the unlikely circumstance that he does, then it will be to the eternal shame of the United States. It will also be justification for the military to finally decide to honor their oath to protect the country from domestic enemies (Trump).
 
I hope you're wrong, but I was so badly stung in my expectations 8 years ago that I can't formulate a prediction -- yet.
Even so -- seeing Trump ranting on and on in the past week and a half on pets getting eaten and young girls being raped and sodomized -- it isn't just that he's unbalanced, though there's that. It's that there must be a lot of citizens like me who are just tired of his anger issues and his salaciousness. This guy can really wear you out. His mixture of assumed victimhood and claims to genius status aren't amusing anymore, they're wearying. I hope there is a majority of the country that just want this braying jackass to go away.
Sidebar: I'd love to know if my born-again cousins, who think Trump was sent by God, know that he uttered 'motherfucker' at a rally in Texas last year.
 
I find it extremely unlikely that Trump will win. However, in the unlikely circumstance that he does, then it will be to the eternal shame of the United States. It will also be justification for the military to finally decide to honor their oath to protect the country from domestic enemies (Trump).

What, like overturn an election? An insurrection?
 
I hope you're wrong, but I was so badly stung in my expectations 8 years ago that I can't formulate a prediction -- yet.
Even so -- seeing Trump ranting on and on in the past week and a half on pets getting eaten and young girls being raped and sodomized -- it isn't just that he's unbalanced, though there's that. It's that there must be a lot of citizens like me who are just tired of his anger issues and his salaciousness. This guy can really wear you out. His mixture of assumed victimhood and claims to genius status aren't amusing anymore, they're wearying. I hope there is a majority of the country that just want this braying jackass to go away.
Sidebar: I'd love to know if my born-again cousins, who think Trump was sent by God, know that he uttered 'motherfucker' at a rally in Texas last year.
His base is so fucking loyal that if he says it, then it’s the gospel truth. If he spouts shit about Harris eating babies, they’ll back it. That’s why I really think he will win. He could say almost anything and they’d follow him. They’d ignore evidence to the contrary and say it’s all bullshit. Doesn’t matter what he says … burn down the constitution. He said that. Fucking bastard should be ineligible.
 
I find it extremely unlikely that Trump will win. However, in the unlikely circumstance that he does, then it will be to the eternal shame of the United States. It will also be justification for the military to finally decide to honor their oath to protect the country from domestic enemies (Trump).

What, like overturn an election? An insurrection?
No. But they can and should refuse to execute illegal orders.
 
I hope you're wrong, but I was so badly stung in my expectations 8 years ago that I can't formulate a prediction -- yet.
Even so -- seeing Trump ranting on and on in the past week and a half on pets getting eaten and young girls being raped and sodomized -- it isn't just that he's unbalanced, though there's that. It's that there must be a lot of citizens like me who are just tired of his anger issues and his salaciousness. This guy can really wear you out. His mixture of assumed victimhood and claims to genius status aren't amusing anymore, they're wearying. I hope there is a majority of the country that just want this braying jackass to go away.
Sidebar: I'd love to know if my born-again cousins, who think Trump was sent by God, know that he uttered 'motherfucker' at a rally in Texas last year.
His base is so fucking loyal that if he says it, then it’s the gospel truth. If he spouts shit about Harris eating babies, they’ll back it. That’s why I really think he will win. He could say almost anything and they’d follow him. They’d ignore evidence to the contrary and say it’s all bullshit. Doesn’t matter what he says … burn down the constitution. He said that. Fucking bastard should be ineligible.
What you say is true, but his base has never been enough to install him in power, and remember, he lost the popular vote both times he ran. His core base of crazies is usually said to be 33 to 35% of the electorate, so he must win over what we charitably call independents. Neither Harris nor Trump is going to win by landslide terms (unless really bizarre events occur in the next 7 weeks.) The winner will be the one who moves the needle just past halfway in a couple of key states. (This is why the electoral college system is the worst gift ever from those geniuses, the Founding Fathers. It is a curse, and it won't be removed in my lifetime. Maybe some future generation will summon the political will to do away with it.) Trump clearly intends to run the country like an updated version of a Mideast satrap, with a government filled with fawning sycophants who applaud every idiotic thing he says. Four more years of Trump will leave our institutions in shreds.
Let's hope Trump's face is beet red with anger and denial on the morning of Nov. 6. For once, I'd be able to laugh at that familiar spectacle.
 
I find it extremely unlikely that Trump will win. However, in the unlikely circumstance that he does, then it will be to the eternal shame of the United States. It will also be justification for the military to finally decide to honor their oath to protect the country from domestic enemies (Trump).

What, like overturn an election? An insurrection?
Well, Trump is already warning us that this election will be fraudulent and he thinks it’s ok to overturn the results of fraudulent elections.
 
Well, Trump is already warning us that this election will be fraudulent and he thinks it’s ok to overturn the results of fraudulent elections.

Yeah but only if he loses.
Well, duh! Republicans aren’t smart enough to figure out to rig an election like the Democrats can. The Dems are so good they leave no evidence that they even did it!
 
Well, duh! Republicans aren’t smart enough to figure out to rig an election like the Democrats can. The Dems are so good they leave no evidence that they even did it!

Yeah, these dumb Republicans, they can’t possibly win with dipshit Trump going up against super smart Kamala.
 
Well, duh! Republicans aren’t smart enough to figure out to rig an election like the Democrats can. The Dems are so good they leave no evidence that they even did it!

Yeah, these dumb Republicans, they can’t possibly win with dipshit Trump going up against super smart Kamala.
One can only hope. But unfortunately, MAGA is a bunch of deluded indoctrinated cultists. With a huge support network.
 
Well, duh! Republicans aren’t smart enough to figure out to rig an election like the Democrats can. The Dems are so good they leave no evidence that they even did it!

Yeah, these dumb Republicans, they can’t possibly win with dipshit Trump going up against super smart Kamala.
Never underestimate the dipshit vote!
 
I'm ignoring predictions. They're not really that useful. Like yeah, maybe Trump will win. That was always a possibility. What can I do about it if he does? Not much. But gee, I sure can... be right about the election outcome? That's what's important. Won't really matter much when I get a bullet in my head.
 
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I hate to be negative, but the polls just aren't showing enough for Harris to pull this out - in the end, I see a few key states breaking Trump's way and he ekes it out. She has to win both Michigan and Pennsylvania and I am very, very skeptical.

I think that Harris just has too many negatives for people to support her. According to some polls, something like 1/4 of African-American males will not vote for her and many will support Trump. There's just a negative that she's a woman.

Second, polls tend to overestimate support for African-Americans and women in races. There is a tendency not to admit that you're not going to vote for an African American or a woman because you fear being labelled. There's just too much residual racism and sexism in the country for her to get elected. In the end, I see a lot of people holding their nose and voting for Trump. Furthermore, Trump has historically underperformed in polls and over performed in the election results. It happened undeniably in 2016, but in 2020 as well - although to a lesser extent.

Third, it's all about the base. While there are a lot of people enthusiastic for her election, I just don't know if it's enough - especially if African-American males don't really support her as strong as they need to. It will be soooo close in places like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Fourth, there's also been a small, but possibly important, shift in the Electoral College towards Republicans. Traditionally strong Republican strongholds have picked up a net of 3 electoral votes, including 2 in Texas and 1 each in Montana, Florida and North Carolina (they lost two elsewhere). Traditionally Democratic states have lost 1. Swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one. This handicaps Harris slightly - and the slightest handicap is all it takes.

Using an interactive map, I figure it all boils down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both of which I remain skeptical Harris can carry. But possibly. Polling right now shows her ahead a bit in Michigan, but Pennsylvania flips around too much to determine. So given that polls are likely under counting Trump again, I don't see her winning both which is required for her to get over 270. Here's my EV prediction (don't pay attention to the shade of the color):

View attachment 47803
Last poll in Maine had Harris up +5 in ME-2. That one race really says a lot for me. Awaiting an update.

Oh... there is a new poll and Trump is up +7. ??? That is an insane swing. They also have Maine at +9 from +17. 2020 Maine was +9, so maybe the UNH poll in August was a dud.
 
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