Trump will win and Hillary is running an inept campaign

[Axulus]

Thought this analysis was really interesting and made some really good points:

[Youtube]http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LibRNYJmZ-I[/youtube]

In short, Trump has far more skill than Hillary at getting people to like him. He is able to frame the terms of a debate skillfully in his favor. He is a master at branding his opponents in a negative light with something that will stick in his supporters minds. Policy positions matter very little to most people. The minorities he attacked during the primary matter very little as few of them vote in the Republician primary. We won't see similar attacks in the general election.

Hillary, on the other hand, is rather inept. She is not very good at branding Trump in a negative light. She is attempting to portray herself as an "outsider", playing along with Trump's game that outsider = good, something that Trump will easily beat her at. She should be reframing the debate to her strengths (frame her experience as an insider as a good thing and attack Trump's lack of experience. For example, while she was in the strategy room during the Osama Bin Laden raid, Trump was on a reality TV show).

See the whole video for a more in depth analysis.

 

[laughing dog]

Certainly history is on the side of Hillary Clinton's ineptness as a campaigner.

 

[Trausti]

Trump is a smart guy. You don't get to where he's at, and survive, without having his wits. Sure, he was born into money. So were a lot of other people. And a fool and his money are soon departed. I know it's fashionable to call him names and say that his supporters are stupid (but you can find stupid people who support any candidate), yet he's got it. No, no, not some terrible disease. I mean confidence. Stage presence. Self-assurance. That matters in life. You can be the smartest guy in the room. But if you lack charisma, few will listen to you. On the other hand, if your mannerisms and speech can hold an audience, you can sell anything. (As an attorney, this matters alot in court.) In the end, though I'm surprised he got this far, I'll vote for Trump. Partly because Clinton is so awful and I don't want to support a dynasty. And partly because, come on, the hysterics from the far lefties will be hilarious.

 

[rousseau]

Trump is a smart guy. You don't get to where he's at, and survive, without having his wits. Sure, he was born into money. So were a lot of other people. And a fool and his money are soon departed. I know it's fashionable to call him names and say that his supporters are stupid (but you can find stupid people who support any candidate), yet he's got it. No, no, not some terrible disease. I mean confidence. Stage presence. Self-assurance. That matters in life. You can be the smartest guy in the room. But if you lack charisma, few will listen to you. On the other hand, if your mannerisms and speech can hold an audience, you can sell anything. (As an attorney, this matters alot in court.) In the end, though I'm surprised he got this far, I'll vote for Trump. Partly because Clinton is so awful and I don't want to support a dynasty. And partly because, come on, the hysterics from the far lefties will be hilarious.

I can't fathom any reasonable human being voting for Trump, which I guess is the US's problem... not enough reasonable people.

 

[laughing dog]

Trump's "smarts" may work in business and in primaries, but a general election is different. His remarks about Mexicans will not be forgotten by Hispanic voters. His demeaning attitudes and remarks about women will not be forgotten by women voters.

The problem for the Republican nominee for POTUS is that he (or she) must tack hard right and racist to get through the primaries and then veer towards the center to win. Romney tried it and lost. Trump cannot bluff away from his awful remarks during the primary campaign without alienating his base.

 

[Trausti]

I can't fathom any reasonable human being voting for Trump,

You can say that about any candidate. The video in the OP has a street interview of a would-be Clinton voter who says she supports various policies, policies which turn out to be Trump's. Howard Stern did this with Obama voters in 2008 and 2012. I think that video is spot on that most people just vote for who they like, not because they understand any difference in policy. If you think that most of the people who favor your preferred candidate are "reasonable," you're probably wrong.

 

[Trausti]

Trump's "smarts" may work in business and in primaries, but a general election is different. His remarks about Mexicans will not be forgotten by Hispanic voters. His demeaning attitudes and remarks about women will not be forgotten by women voters.

The problem for the Republican nominee for POTUS is that he (or she) must tack hard right and racist to get through the primaries and then veer towards the center to win. Romney tried it and lost. Trump cannot bluff away from his awful remarks during the primary campaign without alienating his base.

Don't pigeon hole all Mexicans and Hispanics. They're just as diverse and able to exercise independent agency as anyone else. And many of them like Trump.

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJVAaPPXdew[/YOUTUBE]

And I say the reason Romney lost is because Obama was so popular among black Americans. They came out in yuge numbers for him. While Clinton will likely win the black vote, it just won't be the same turn out as 2012.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/05/09/blacks-outvoted-whites-in-2012-the-first-time-on-record/

 

[Horatio Parker]

Don't pigeon hole all Mexicans and Hispanics. They're just as diverse and able to exercise independent agency as anyone else. And many of them like Trump.

How many? Do you have any numbers, or just rhetoric?

 

[Trausti]

Don't pigeon hole all Mexicans and Hispanics. They're just as diverse and able to exercise independent agency as anyone else. And many of them like Trump.

How many? Do you have any numbers, or just rhetoric?

Not saying he'll get >50% of the Hispanic vote, just that it's a mistake to treat Hispanics as a Borg and not as individuals.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/increasingly-vocal-minority-of-hispanic-voters-rally-around-trump/

 

[Ford]

Certainly history is on the side of Hillary Clinton's ineptness as a campaigner.

She is sorely lacking in the charisma department for sure.

What the video fails to take into account is the fact that Clinton is aware of her shortcomings, has adjusted her campaign, and as a result is solidly defeating the other most unlikely phenomenon in American political history, Bernie Sanders.

Like Trump, Sanders elicits an emotional - even passionate - response from people. He draws huge crowds. Is a sensation on social media. His response among young people makes the "Ron Paul Revolution" look mediocre by comparison. He's actually within striking distance of the Democratic Nomination, though victory seems mathematically ruled out at this point. That's quite an accomplishment, but the result indicates why the OP video's prediction of a Trump landslide is a bit over the top.

The difference between Trump and Sanders is that Trump's upstart long shot populist candidacy happened in a field of mostly hilariously bad Republican contenders. He didn't have to win over a majority of GOP primary voters...just enough to put him ahead of whatever weak candidate he was set to destroy in a given contest. He won the nomination by attrition...a plurality. Clinton won (or is set to win) the nomination by getting more people to vote for her than Sanders...a majority.

Getting people to show up to rallies is one thing. Getting them to show up and cast a vote is another. She's been going after the votes.

It isn't a sensational strategy. It doesn't elicit passionate responses or get lots of hits on You Tube, but at the end of the day getting people to the polls and getting them to vote for you is more important than splashy news coverage or "hits" on the internet.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Don't pigeon hole all Mexicans and Hispanics. They're just as diverse and able to exercise independent agency as anyone else. And many of them like Trump.

How many? Do you have any numbers, or just rhetoric?

Well, there are thousands who like him. Maybe tens of thousands. There ar probably even Muslims who think the sun shines out of his ass. The demographics of the groups as a whole, however, are clear despite whatever tokens he finds to pull into stage with him to lie about them.

 

[Horatio Parker]

How many? Do you have any numbers, or just rhetoric?

Not saying he'll get >50% of the Hispanic vote, just that it's a mistake to treat Hispanics as a Borg and not as individuals.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/increasingly-vocal-minority-of-hispanic-voters-rally-around-trump/

Romney got 27%, GW got 34% in '04. Will Trump do better?

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

1) expect Obama to hit the campaign trail once Hilary is officially nominated. I recall that he's a very good campaigner, and he will probably do anything short of a CIA hit squad to keep Trump out of the White House.

2) if Sanders can swallow his pride/pull his head out of his ass, he will make the rounds too. If he doesn't, he may as well retire or officially create a new party, because he'll have no place with the Democrats.

 

[Jayjay]

Not saying he'll get >50% of the Hispanic vote, just that it's a mistake to treat Hispanics as a Borg and not as individuals.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/increasingly-vocal-minority-of-hispanic-voters-rally-around-trump/

Romney got 27%, GW got 34% in '04. Will Trump do better?

I think the point is that he doesn't have to do that much better. All he needs is to be in the same ballpark, which isn't completely implausible.

 

[Rhea]

Comparing Trump post-nomination to Clinton pre-nomination is kind of folly.

Everyone who will support Trump publicly is doing it. The list is small.
On The Dem side, many influential and popular people are waiting for the nomination to be certain and official before stirring up votes. We all know they will. And it's appropriate for them to wait, IMHO. When the nomination is certain, they will be a tremendous influence.

Moreover, I don't see that she is branding herself as an outsider at all. That's an odd claim to make, it seems?

(No, I didn't watch the video. The invisible hand of the free market does not bring high speed internet to rural America. I need a socialist for that.)

 

[Horatio Parker]

Romney got 27%, GW got 34% in '04. Will Trump do better?

I think the point is that he doesn't have to do that much better. All he needs is to be in the same ballpark, which isn't completely implausible.

The point seems to be nothing more than bombast. I'm seeing approval numbers under 15%. HRC will have to make a major effort to drive these voters to Trump.

So what's the ballpark?

 

[rousseau]

I can't fathom any reasonable human being voting for Trump,

You can say that about any candidate. The video in the OP has a street interview of a would-be Clinton voter who says she supports various policies, policies which turn out to be Trump's. Howard Stern did this with Obama voters in 2008 and 2012. I think that video is spot on that most people just vote for who they like, not because they understand any difference in policy. If you think that most of the people who favor your preferred candidate are "reasonable," you're probably wrong.

I don't doubt that most voters don't understand their preferred candidates policy positions.

But once any person says they're going to vote for Trump I'm absolutely certain that there's something wrong with them.

He's not a candidate, he's a psychopath, and he's putting our entire species in danger at one of the most pivotal times in our history. If you vote for him you're a clown.

 

[another1]

I'd question my reality if Trump won. The situation already has me wondering what is up. Isn't it goofy? Like, I can't force myself to respect someone who plans to vote for him, unless they happen to be an anarchist. In that case it would be a pretty wise choice.

 

[Trausti]

But once any person says they're going to vote for Trump I'm absolutely certain that there's something wrong with them.

I know what you mean. Feel the same way about Sanders's supporters.

 

[Will Wiley]

I notice Adams put $1000 of his own money on Trump. Lot's of people say they think Hillary will win.i think people just say that but they aren't really too sure. Is anyone really still confident Hillary will win. Would anyone actually be confident enough to put money on her?

I backed Sanders (maybe too optimistically) as the odds seemed pretty good.