Where's the Bernie Bump?

[Harry Bosch]

I keep hearing that democrats should abandon the practice of going after moderates (ie the winning strategies adopted by Bill Clinton, Obama, and HRC's majority vote in 2016); and instead focus younger voters and the left disenfranchised who are just clammoring to vote. Well, it's not happening. According to the below link, 10,300 fewer young voters turned out this year in the Iowa primary than did for Obama in 2008. Very disappointing.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/sanders-spins-young-voter-turnout-in-iowa/

I haven't seen specific voting data from New Hampshire yet. But I've heard that turnout there was about 12,000 greater than 2016. Meh...

Yea, we're going to be fucked if we don't nominate a person who can appeal to a broad spectrum of people. The far left cannot be depended upon to win an election on their own. They are a little flacky and too small of a group. We need a very large tent if we are going to beat the republicans who have so much built in structural advantages.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Look at exit polling data and see who best appeals to abroad spectrum of voters.
I thought AOC would draw in the youngsters for Bernie but with two states down, it would appear their noses are still buried in their phones.

 

[southernhybrid]

I just saw some statistics from the NH primary. The claim was made that a lot of moderate Independents and Republicans voted in the open primary there. That makes sense to me because there are a lot of decent Republicans who are disgusted with Trump and are hoping the Democrats will choose a candidate that they find acceptable enough to support. You probably heard that Amy K raised about 2.5 million dollars after the NH primary. I listened to her speech and was very impressed with it. I think she may be tough enough to stand up to Trump. We have open primaries here in Georgia, so we will probably have some cross over here as well.

And, it's true that voter turnout among younger voters hasn't met expectations, at least not yet.

I had dinner with a friend last night who will vote for Bernie in the primary. She is 40, very low income, married with several children, doesn't have a job or plan to look for one, husband sole supporter of family and he's a forklift operator, she lacks health insurance etc. She wanted Warren, but sees that Warren is fading. She told me that she really doesn't like Bernie or his followers but wants to vote for someone further left than the other candidates. I think that people like my friend are lured by the promise of free healthcare, free college etc. I can certainly understand that, considering her situation.

I told her if any of the Democrats become our next president, the chances are that none will be able to pass the type of legislation that Bernie wants, and Bernie will have to compromise quite a bit to get anything done. She agreed with me. She is the only Bernie supporter who I currently know, but in 2016 I knew several and they were all in similar situations as my friend. One was an older woman who work caring for frail older adults in their homes. Her son had quit his job to try and start up a small business as an artist. Does Bernie have very much appeal to people who are more financially stable? I do wonder about that.

Some people seem to like his idealism, but don't think he's electable. I just prefer someone more reasonable.

 

[Patooka]

Considering how much Bernie has raised in individual donations (more than any other Democrat, especially in areas that are considered traditionally Republican like the military) to say Bernie doesn't have broad appeal is pretty laughable.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Look at exit polling data and see who best appeals to abroad spectrum of voters.
I thought AOC would draw in the youngsters for Bernie but with two states down, it would appear their noses are still buried in their phones.

The young ones have been typical disappointers at the polls for decades. This isn't anything new.

Sanders is different this time around. He is polling better with minorities and a broader base... but... he doesn't appear to be bringing new people out. Sanders didn't win NH by a lot, but he led in a good deal of demographics.

 

[Politesse]

I don't get how you're seeing Bernie specifically as a the cause of low voter turnout, here. The "young people" were free to vote for whomever they liked. If one of the other candidates were going to be more appealing to that tier of voters, wouldn't they have done so? Are you just holding out hope that Michael Stop-and-Frisk Bloomberg is going to be the voice of the disenfranchised youth of the nation? It seems to me that the Party itself is the problem, and indeed very low confidence in the political process as a whole.

I note that most young folks are busy as hell on Tuesdays, perhaps voting in a primary didn't seem worth risking their jobs over in New Hampshire, let alone standing around in a barn all night or however the hell Iowa caucusing works. I literally cannot imagine any of my Generation Z students voluntarily participating in a "Democracy Hoot'n'Holler" with their grandparents of an evening. Iowa has some PR problems if nothing else.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't get how you're seeing Bernie specifically as a the cause of low voter turnout, here.

I'm not, I'm saying that some Sanders supporters said Sanders would bring out new voters. That hasn't happened. That is the end of the claim.

The "young people" were free to vote for whomever they liked. If one of the other candidates were going to be more appealing to that tier of voters, wouldn't they have done so?

You seemed to completely miss my point on young voters. The point was turnout of young voters. There is usually this excitement that young voters will turn the tables in the next election, but turnout is rarely that high. Again, the end of that claim.

Are you just holding out hope that Michael Stop-and-Frisk Bloomberg is going to be the voice of the disenfranchised youth of the nation?

Not particularly. If it is Bloomberg or Trump, I'll vote Bloomberg, but the guy is a Republican and while his social stances aren't too conservative, his economical ones are, and America is in a bad state if it can only elect a Republican to get Trump out of office.

I note that most young folks are busy as hell on Tuesdays, perhaps voting in a primary didn't seem worth risking their jobs over.

Jebus Christ! If they don't vote, I don't care who they support, it simply doesn't matter.

 

[Politesse]

Jebus Christ! If they don't vote, I don't care who they support, it simply doesn't matter.

I suspect our hypothetical non-voters quite agree.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Yes. The American epitaph comes from a Canadian: You don't know what you've got 'til it's gone.

 

[PyramidHead]

In both Iowa and New Hampshire, two states that nobody agrees are representative of the nation as a whole, Bernie won the most votes, and did so by winning the most votes from minorities, immigrants, union members, renters, and minimum wage workers. He is only going to do better in states that are not as white and affluent compared to these.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

But he must be stopped from winning because he can't win.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Bernie in the 2016 N.H. primary: a 60% win.
Bernie this week: 25.7%.
That burn is a fairly small sizzle. I agree with Mr. Penguin above: Emperor Trump would squat pretty hard on Bernie.

 

[Politesse]

But he must be stopped from winning because he can't win.

If I were a young voter, I would very suspicious of whether Bernie is even going to be allowed to win this time, considering he got shanked in the ass by his own party in 2016. For someone who is 22 now, that disappointment was their first voting experience.

 

[Politesse]

Bernie in the 2016 N.H. primary: a 60% win.
Bernie this week: 25.7%.
That burn is a fairly small sizzle. I agree with Mr. Penguin above: Emperor Trump would squat pretty hard on Bernie.

And as everyone knows, it's much easier to run against 7 people than 1, especially in terms of the ending percentage.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That could be an expectation. Trouble for Sanders is he got less than a 2 pt win in New Hampshire. Nearly 3 in 4 people didn't vote for him. He is winning the majority of demographics, but generally not by much. No one is killing in many demographics.

Nevada and South Carolina polling results are gathering dust. Sanders was on Biden's heels in Nevada, but trailing by a lot in South Carolina, where Steyer was making his move. But the polls are so old, they are meaningless. I would presume that Sanders and Buttigieg are the top dogs in Nevada. How Klobuchar performs will likely be the largest unknown. This is also a Caucus state. This usually benefits the most energized base, so a repeat of Iowa perhaps.

South Carolina is most likely a box of Xmas lights.

 

[Politesse]

That could be an expectation. Trouble for Sanders is he got less than a 2 pt win in New Hampshire. Nearly 3 in 4 people didn't vote for him. He is winning the majority of demographics, but generally not by much. No one is killing in many demographics.

Nevada and South Carolina polling results are gathering dust. Sanders was on Biden's heels in Nevada, but trailing by a lot in South Carolina, where Steyer was making his move. But the polls are so old, they are meaningless. I would presume that Sanders and Buttigieg are the top dogs in Nevada. How Klobuchar performs will likely be the largest unknown. This is also a Caucus state. This usually benefits the most energized base, so a repeat of Iowa perhaps.

South Carolina is most likely a box of Xmas lights.

Well, she out performed expectation by nearly double in NH. That energy has to count for something?

I could see her catching on with a lot of the Nevada liberals I know, though most of them are already Bernie or Yang fans (the state has few real jobs in it) so that might be to no end.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

But he must be stopped from winning because he can't win.

If I were a young voter, I would very suspicious of whether Bernie is even going to be allowed to win this time, considering he got discouraged from running shanked in the ass by his own a party he wasn't even a member of in 2016, but ultimately got most of his platform into the party platform at the Convention. For someone who is 22 now, that disappointment was their first voting experience.

Had some issues there and FIFY.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That could be an expectation. Trouble for Sanders is he got less than a 2 pt win in New Hampshire. Nearly 3 in 4 people didn't vote for him. He is winning the majority of demographics, but generally not by much. No one is killing in many demographics.

Nevada and South Carolina polling results are gathering dust. Sanders was on Biden's heels in Nevada, but trailing by a lot in South Carolina, where Steyer was making his move. But the polls are so old, they are meaningless. I would presume that Sanders and Buttigieg are the top dogs in Nevada. How Klobuchar performs will likely be the largest unknown. This is also a Caucus state. This usually benefits the most energized base, so a repeat of Iowa perhaps.

South Carolina is most likely a box of Xmas lights.

Well, she out performed expectation by nearly double in NH. That energy has to count for something?

But Caucuses are different beasts. You need an energetic, get out, and waste your whole evening type of lightning in your body. The disappointing thing with Klobuchar's performance was the demographics she won, old, wealthy, and religious. Granted, that is the middle that some pragmatic people have been talking about for a while.

I could see her catching on with a lot of the Nevada liberals I know, though most of them are already Bernie or Yang fans (the state has few real jobs in it) so that might be to no end.

We'll see. She is making a run for it there, and I ponder a Klobuchar-Warren connection, which was definitely showing signs in New Hampshire after the vote. Warren has a couple types of supporters, one that'd move to Sanders, the other to Klobuchar. Time will tell.

 

[PyramidHead]

Bernie in the 2016 N.H. primary: a 60% win.
Bernie this week: 25.7%.
That burn is a fairly small sizzle. I agree with Mr. Penguin above: Emperor Trump would squat pretty hard on Bernie.

Yes, I too have no concept of the denominator in a fraction, please go on with your cogent analysis of the political facts

 

[Horatio Parker]

The CW is that winning over a moderate is more effective than expanding the base. Because a moderate vote not only is a vote is gained, but that same vote is also denied to the opposition. By that logic, a turned voter is double value.

For a front runner, Bernie is having a rough time. Would the Dems cut their own throats to deny him?

I don't think Bernie would be so dumb as to not tack to the center if he got the nomination.