Who is feeling the Bern

[arkirk]

L

This thread is about why Clinton is so much more appealing than Sanders to Black, Hispanic, old, female Democrats.

Traditional scripts railing against the evils of Republicans would not seem to apply.

Polls show Trump gaining support among GOP voters, but having high negatives amongst Democrats and most importantly, Independents. But again, Hillary has support from blacks that Sanders lacks, The problem for Sanders is how to manage to get more minority voters on his side. If he cannot do that he loses to Clinton.

He cannot expect minorities to somehow spontaneously come to him, he has to somehow forcefully take his case to them. He cannot rely on young white progressives outside of small Northern states. Sanders cannot count on some sort of self inflicted Clinton meltdown. He has to force this issue or lose. If he cannot beat Clinton, it doesn't matter if he can beat Trump.

I think Sanders alleged weakness among blacks is really just a fairy story the Clinton campaign is spreading in hopes of rescuing Hillary's faltering campaign. Sanders has been taking his campaign to the South and really does well with people of color. This idea that black folks gotta love Clinton is a hoax.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Polls show Trump gaining support among GOP voters, but having high negatives amongst Democrats and most importantly, Independents. But again, Hillary has support from blacks that Sanders lacks, The problem for Sanders is how to manage to get more minority voters on his side. If he cannot do that he loses to Clinton.

He cannot expect minorities to somehow spontaneously come to him, he has to somehow forcefully take his case to them. He cannot rely on young white progressives outside of small Northern states. Sanders cannot count on some sort of self inflicted Clinton meltdown. He has to force this issue or lose. If he cannot beat Clinton, it doesn't matter if he can beat Trump.

I think Sanders alleged weakness among blacks is really just a fairy story the Clinton campaign is spreading in hopes of rescuing Hillary's faltering campaign. Sanders has been taking his campaign to the South and really does well with people of color. This idea that black folks gotta love Clinton is a hoax.

No, its a matter of fact. Polls and surveys show this, and Clinton has nothing to do with creating these polls. Nationwide polls also demonstrate Clinton has rather commanding leads over Sanders. If I was a Sanders adviser, I would tell Sanders that he has to overcome this problem or lose inevitably. In a few Southern states where surveys were done, Sander's support among Black voters was in single digits.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-traction-among-black-voters-than-hes-seeing/

 

[Crazy Eddie]

I didn't say that all his supporters don't think he can win. I said that some Dems like him but don't think he can win.

Dems that "like him but don't think he can win" is NOT the same group as "Bernie Sanders supporters." I'm sure there's a certain amount of overlap, but that term is more true of HILLARY'S supporters than Sanders'.

As for the ignorance of most of his supporters, that is not a knock against them in particular, just a fact about voters in general

In other words its an unsubstantiated assumption based on nothing at all.

No. His very early supporters back when they were less than 5% of the electorate may likely have been non-typical in their high level of knowledge about him. But for the majority of his "fans" who just jumped on board in the last few months, Bernie is an amusing twitter meme, especially among young adults who get most their information from twitter and viral videos.

You're making the assumption that people who see Sanders-related posts on twitter, facebook and youtube have not and will not bother to click the hyperlinks attached to that content and spend five minutes reading something about him and what he stands for.

Bernie is by far the most likable candidate out there. The people who don't really know his policies and are just going on superficial likeability are the one's most likely to support him.

Except that's not what people are actually SAYING about him. Most of the conversation about Bernie Sanders has a lot more to do with his policies being a welcome departure from the gentle cupping of Wall Street's balls and a lack of interest in a "bipartisan" roll over for a Republican belly rub.

That is why he closed to gap on Hillary so fast, because it isn't based on policy knowledge that takes time, but on superficial qualities that you can tell by 10 seconds of hearing he and Hillary speak.

Well, no, he closed the gap so quickly because knowledge of him and his policy positions came to be shared more widely as time went on. Six months ago, I couldn't name a single black person who even knew who Bernie Sanders was; now I can't name a single one who hasn't contributed to his campaign.

It's not just "likeability" (whatever that means). It's not like people like him because of his knock knock jokes or his amusing hijinks on his reality show. People come to like him because they like what he says, his beliefs and his principles, his positions on economic and foreign policy, etc.

No. I am saying that people who like Bernie, like Bernie the amusing old man, and know little of his policies

And I'm saying that doesn't appear to be even REMOTELY true since most of the people I know who are supporting him know nothing whatsoever about him EXCEPT for his policies. It's not like he's particularly well known for ANYTHING ELSE, except for being unashamedly socialist and being the only Democrat who openly supports single payer healthcare.

I didn't know Bernie Sanders HAD Luke-warm supporters.

Then, you know very little about human beings and politics.

And you, evidently, know very little about Bernie Sanders' supporters. You're supplying (educated?) guesses and vague generalizations as if they were actual observations. In the end, you really just don't know what you'retalking about.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Likeability can carry you far, look at Ben Carson. But there has to be substance there too. Again, look at Carson. But likeability, or lack of it can be a problem. Look at Trump's high negative ratings, much due to his unlikeability. Large numbers of black voters do not like or dislike Sanders, they simply don't know enough about him to judge, according to surveys.

 

[Jaecp]

I think Sanders alleged weakness among blacks is really just a fairy story the Clinton campaign is spreading in hopes of rescuing Hillary's faltering campaign. Sanders has been taking his campaign to the South and really does well with people of color. This idea that black folks gotta love Clinton is a hoax.

No, its a matter of fact. Polls and surveys show this, and Clinton has nothing to do with creating these polls. Nationwide polls also demonstrate Clinton has rather commanding leads over Sanders. If I was a Sanders adviser, I would tell Sanders that he has to overcome this problem or lose inevitably. In a few Southern states where surveys were done, Sander's support among Black voters was in single digits.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-traction-among-black-voters-than-hes-seeing/

This largely has to do with the fact that Hillary has the name recognition and that black people vote overwhelmingly Democrat anyway. Obama didn't get significantly larger amount of the black vote than Gore or Kerry and he's the first African American president.

 

[untermensche]

L

I don't think there is anything magical about Hillary in the minds of black voters.

Compared to the Republicans she has great appeal.

But as it always does, everything changes the second real voting begins.

And the media, that seems to favor Clinton, cannot ignore Bernie if he wins.

This thread is about why Clinton is so much more appealing than Sanders to Black, Hispanic, old, female Democrats.

Traditional scripts railing against the evils of Republicans would not seem to apply.

It is no script to say Republicans have very little appeal with blacks. It is just a fact.

They are not stupid and can clearly see the racist appeals from many Republican candidates and the harm policies supported by Republicans do.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/

Some facts to ponder. 80% black Americans support or lean Democratic, only 11% GOP. White Southerners 34% Democratic, 55% GOP.

 

[dismal]

L

This thread is about why Clinton is so much more appealing than Sanders to Black, Hispanic, old, female Democrats.

Traditional scripts railing against the evils of Republicans would not seem to apply.

It is no script to say Republicans have very little appeal with blacks. It is just a fact.

They are not stupid and can clearly see the racist appeals from many Republican candidates and the harm policies supported by Republicans do.

Unless your next statement is going to be that Sanders is a secret Republican or Sanders is making racist appeals to get votes, it's a fact that has a no relevancy to this discussion.

The difference in support between Clinton/Sanders among minorities seems to have nothing at all to do with your scripts. Time to update the bot code.

 

[dismal]

I'm going to take a shot at answering the OP question based on some of what has been said here and other observations. I think there are 3 important differences between Clinton/Sanders driving these demographics.

1) Bernie Has a penis
2) Hillary is much better known
3) Bernie is a much purer progressive, particularly on economic issues

#1 (the penis) may explain some of the difference between women and men, but actually since these are Democrats we are talking about I'm not sure it's all that much. You have to be pretty progressive to be a Sanders supporter so I don't think you'd generally see Bernie's penis as a big plus over Hillary's vagina. If anything, you'd probably see it as a negative if all else was equal. I question a little whether being a woman would be a plus culturally among certain minorities but have no particular data to back that up, so I would imagine Hillary's vagina is a plus across almost all demographic groups. So, ultimately, I don't think this is the big explanatory factor.

#2 and #3, I think, work together to explain most of the difference in support by age and race. In short, if you are young, male and white you are far more likely to be an ideological progressive and far more likely to be aware of Sanders, agree with his economics, and be aware that Sanders is the more ideologically pure of the two. The more casually engaged Democrats and the ones who are less consumed with progressive economic issues are happier to be fed their Hillary sandwich.

 

[maxparrish]

I'm going to take a shot at answering the OP question based on some of what has been said here and other observations. I think there are 3 important differences between Clinton/Sanders driving these demographics.
...
#2 and #3, I think, work together to explain most of the difference in support by age and race. In short, if you are young, male and white you are far more likely to be an ideological progressive and far more likely to be aware of Sanders, agree with his economics, and be aware that Sanders is the more ideologically pure of the two. The more casually engaged Democrats and the ones who are less consumed with progressive economic issues are happier to be fed their Hillary sandwich.

Good point, but recent polls also show that the "male and white ideological perspective" has expanded to include that of young women.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...s-hillary-clinton-women-millennials/78810110/

Sen. Bernie Sanders, 74, a Vermont independent, will head into the Democratic presidential debate Sunday with a 19-point lead over front-runner Hillary Clinton, 50% to 31%, among Democratic and independent women ages 18 to 34, according to a recent USA TODAY/Rock the Vote poll.

Millennial women are among the supporters Sanders is counting on to help him pull off an upset Feb. 1 in Iowa, where his poll numbers are surging, and hold his lead in New Hampshire, which will hold a primary Feb. 9, to give him the momentum he needs to succeed in later contests where Clinton is favored.

The silver lining might be that FINALLY the feminist and race identity, politics tribalism may no longer dominate internal Democratic Party politics. It has been the bane of the left since the 1980s, and has been a disgrace to the legacy of the old left.

At least a conflict over class makes more sense than the insanity of Hillary's "I've got female genitalia, vote for me". Young women seem to care a heck of a lot more over paying the rent, than they do in sharing sisterly comradeship over the 'glass ceilings' of hyper rich white women.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Nationwide, Bernie may be closing the gap

http://news.investors.com/ibd-edito...nton-lead-nearly-vanishes-among-democrats.htm

[h=1]Hillary Clinton's Lead Over Sanders Nearly Vanishes[/h]BY JOHN MERLINE, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

With just 21 days until the presidential primaries officially begin in Iowa, Hillary Clinton's support among Democrats nationally has taken a serious tumble, falling eight points to 43%, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Support for her chief rival, Bernie Sanders, rose six points to 39%.

...
The IBD/TIPP Poll shows that regionally, Clinton saw her support drop most in the Northeast (where it fell to 36% from 50%) and the West (37% down from 49%). Sanders now holds the lead in both places. Clinton support also tumbled among suburban voters, dropping to 39% from last a month's 50%. And she has lost backing among moderate Democrats, falling to 44% from 58%. Sanders picked up 10 points among moderates, to 37%.

Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/ibd-edito...ly-vanishes-among-democrats.htm#ixzz3xd2UKP8z
......
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Ride 'em Bernie!

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...t-sentiment-breaks-by-party-line-in-iowa-poll

43% of Iowa Democratic caucus voters identify as socialists.

 

[dismal]

Bernie has been polling well in NH and IA for some time. But NH and IA are much more favorable to him demographically than the country as a whole.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Bernie has been polling well in NH and IA for some time. But NH and IA are much more favorable to him demographically than the country as a whole.

But he may be gaining. Millenials now make up a large demographic and they are pro-Bernie. They lean Democratic almost 2 - 1.

And 43% of Democratic Iowa caucus goers identify as socialist? Just plain weird.

 

[dismal]

Bernie has been polling well in NH and IA for some time. But NH and IA are much more favorable to him demographically than the country as a whole.

But he may be gaining. Millenials now make up a large demographic and they are pro-Bernie. They lean Democratic almost 2 - 1.

He's been gaining since the he started. Hillary used to have something like a 55 point lead. Over Biden. Now it's more like +15 over Bernie.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

 

[Tom Sawyer]

And 43% of Democratic iowa caucus goers identify as socialist? Just plain weird.

To be fair, the poll was done on a Tuesday afternoon and more of the non-socialists had a job and weren't home to answer the phone.

 

[maxparrish]

And 43% of Democratic iowa caucus goers identify as socialist? Just plain weird.

To be fair, the poll was done on a Tuesday afternoon and more of the non-socialists had a job and weren't home to answer the phone.

A friend of mine's adult step-daughter would be more than happy to give a thumbs up for Sanders to the pollster who calls her at home; as a part-time dog groomer (the only kind of work she likes to do), and an intentionally unwed mother that is living for free in her mom's otherwise pricey vacant home, she is a big-time socialist.

Like many young, being a parasite has been her life's ambition.

 

[untermensche]

It is no script to say Republicans have very little appeal with blacks. It is just a fact.

They are not stupid and can clearly see the racist appeals from many Republican candidates and the harm policies supported by Republicans do.

Unless your next statement is going to be that Sanders is a secret Republican or Sanders is making racist appeals to get votes, it's a fact that has a no relevancy to this discussion.

The difference in support between Clinton/Sanders among minorities seems to have nothing at all to do with your scripts. Time to update the bot code.

You like to call facts "scripts". I don't know why.

And you have nothing but a Strawman here.

I never claimed this transient appeal of Hillary over Bernie had anything to do with blacks understanding how harmful Republican plans are.

 

[Harry Bosch]

To be fair, the poll was done on a Tuesday afternoon and more of the non-socialists had a job and weren't home to answer the phone.

A friend of mine's adult step-daughter would be more than happy to give a thumbs up for Sanders to the pollster who calls her at home; as a part-time dog groomer (the only kind of work she likes to do), and an intentionally unwed mother that is living for free in her mom's otherwise pricey vacant home, she is a big-time socialist.

Like many young, being a parasite has been her life's ambition.

It would be cool to receive a nice paycheck every two weeks while playing computer games and drinking beer all day!

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Everytime a democratic politician offers a solution, better health care, livable minimum wage, clean water and air and so on, the faright hate ranters of raido and TV shriek "Socialism! Socialism!" How many times have idiots like Wretch Limpbrain or Sean Insanity called Obama a socialist over the years? And it may well be by doing so, they have sold many Americans on the concept of socialism.

It would be funny as hell if indeed Bernie did win and the number of Americans that like Iowan Democrats declared themselves as Socialists skyrocketed.

"OK, if everything politically competent, progressive and desirable is socialist, I am a socialist!".

Oh please, please, please let that happen!


The poll, published Wednesday, found that while Americans overall tend to oppose socialism by a strong margin -- 60 percent say they have a negative view of it, versus just 31 percent who say they have a positive view -- socialism has more fans than opponents among the 18-29 crowd. Forty-nine percent of people in that age bracket say they have a positive view of socialism; only 43 percent say they have a negative view.