Who will be the 2016 Democratic nominee? (Jan. 2016 edition)

[Derec]

Companion thread to Who will be the 2016 Republican nominee? (Jan. 2016 edition). I ran the same poll in December 2014 and 45% said Hillary Clinton and only 1 (5%) said Bernie Sanders. 20% thought Elizabeth Warren would be the nominee and she didn't even run.
I think now that the we are nearing the Iowa caucuses we need to revisit the poll again. We are down to three:

Sct. Hillary Clinton (who knows) - 69

"What, with a cloth?" or "Orange is the new black"
The heiress apparent still leads in polls and has raked in many endorsements but is beset by new and old scandals and gaffes as well as insurgent candidacy of Bernie Sanders. Still has a lock on women and (surprisingly after shit she pulled in 2008) blacks.

Gov. Martin O'Malley (MD) - 54

"What? 2%? Did I hear you right?"
Great candidate on paper - mayor, governor, does not need Depends yet. Could not gain much traction though. Tried to move hard left, especially on immigration. Freddie Grey's death and subsequent rioting in the city where he was mayor did not help either.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) - 75

"See, my hair wasn't always out of control!"
Would be by far the oldest president if elected, yet he is the favorite of Millennials. Self-described socialist, but does not really understand what "socialism" means (an economic system characterized by public ownership of means of production - not a capitalist system with high levels of social services and regulation). Does well in NH right now and could even pull an upset in Iowa. Gives Hillary camp flashbacks to 2008.

 

[Terrell]

At this point I think it's probably Hillary. I cannot say it with certainty though. I also wonder if it's possible for another Democrat to enter the race at this point. It's probably too late, but a candidate with a good message, resources, and a great deal of charisma might be able to pull it off. I'm unaware of any Democrat that fits those criteria.

I'd sum it up as an "I don't know but if I had to guess, Hillary Clinton."

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I'm saying Hillary for the same reasons I said Jeb Bush in the other thread: name recognition and establishment support.

 

[Derec]

So Iowa was a virtual tie (with slight Hillary edge) and there was a landslide in NH (feel the Bern!) so things are actually looking good for the challenger. I have not seen any new Nevada and SC polls, but if Bernie manages to win in NV and come close in the Palmetto State Hillary is on the ropes. Still, she has establishment support but the establishment must be really careful not to alienate the Sanders fans lest they vote third party or not vote at all. Even though superdelegates were invented to stop an insurgent campaign like Bernie's, it is almost inconceivable that they would vote to overturn the result of primaries and caucuses if Bernie should come out ahead.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

So Iowa was a virtual tie (with slight Hillary edge) and there was a landslide in NH (feel the Bern!) ...

I am not sure that everyone understood the ramifications of "establishment support" I had written about in both threads. I include among many factors that such support creates--super delegates.

There were 24 delegates to be allocated out of the New Hampshire Democratic primary, based on the vote statewide and by congressional district. Sanders, obviously, won more of those, 15 to her 9.

And yet ...

Add in the "superdelegates" who have already committed to a candidate, and Clinton moves into the delegate lead. Six of the state's eight superdelegates have publicly said they will vote for Clinton at the Democratic National Convention in July. (Two are uncommitted.)

That brings the delegate total out of Tuesday night to a 15 to 15 tie.

This is what makes Clinton so powerful in the Democratic race — even while she and Sanders battle it out among rank-and-file voters, she has a massive lead among superdelegates. Altogether, she already has 394 delegates and superdelegates to Sanders' 44 — a nearly ninefold lead.

And as NPR reported last year, a Democratic candidate needs 2,382 total delegates (super or not) to win the nomination. Of those, 712 are superdelegates.

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/10/46628...ually-winning-in-n-h-even-though-she-lost-big

 

[untermensche]

It really is extraordinary what Bernie is doing.

He has everything except a lot of people against him.

 

[Derec]

I am not sure that everyone understood the ramifications of "establishment support" I had written about in both threads. I include among many factors that such support creates--super delegates.

I did mention superdelegates in my post.

Still, I think it's rather dishonest to include superdelegates in the candidate's total or to claim that Hillary somehow "won" New Hampshire as pro-Hillary media is trying to make us believe. These superdelegates are unpledged and only vote at the convention. And while they were invented precisely against candidates like Sanders they are the ultimate nuclear option in that their use has to be weighed very carefully. As I said above, establishment has to be careful not to alienate the Bernie base and overturning popular choice with superdelegates would be the ultimate alienation. If that happens I would not be surprised if Jill Stein exceeded Nader's 2000 vote percentage.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It really is extraordinary what Bernie is doing.

He has everything except a lot of people against him.

It'll start becoming more extraordinary if he wins Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas. Right now he tied in a state that doesn't do well in selecting candidates and New Hampshire, which is right next door to home.

 

[Derec]

#ImNotKiddingMaddi trends as Hillary Clinton sends 'desperate' email asking for a dollar after New Hampshire vote

Bill is interested in Maddi too ...

Of course there is one reliable way to get plenty of dollar bills (void in Iceland)

Lastly, Hillary's new campaign song.

 

[Terrell]

It really is extraordinary what Bernie is doing.

He has everything except a lot of people against him.

It'll start becoming more extraordinary if he wins Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas. Right now he tied in a state that doesn't do well in selecting candidates and New Hampshire, which is right next door to home.

Yeah, this. Too early to call in my opinion.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

You all were right.